this is the worst possible draw to EINSS, seriously. i need the blank after the bingo! although H1 HIES actually looks better than my play. -3.5 #strategymedium
huge lowlight where I completely fail to see the possibility of a word fitting through an I in 3rd position. Andy had a 1/3 chance of winning by 2. I recounted everything after seeing a possible word there would tie. Found Andy underscoring MAW by 2, got pissed off, and was not able to see the possibility of EV(I)CTION. Horrible. Obviously, 9s may exist, and they happen not to. Terrible. #findingSADDEST
FAIL or FAIR because I don't give back any 9s! UNGUARDED, UNDERHAND, UNADORNED, UNFOUNDED, UNDERFUND, UNROUNDED, UNDERHUNG play. (L)ONGHEAD still plays regardless #strategylarge
#knowledgesmall for WINDWAy. I desperately set up a 3x3 with TAO. The sim winners are C1 ALO(W) and A3 OLEA, with the same idea. ALO(W) nearly maximizes my average score next turn, while TAO maximizes my opponent's score. #strategymedium
D1 CHAtEAU and D1 CHApEAU. Not me looking for a V to play VAUCH, not spotting it in AVIATOR, and missing every bingo ever while i was at it, too #knowledgesaddest
It appears that exchanging does sim ahead of my play and G9 (F)AUNAE, which I was not a fan of. I'd probably exchange down to EN if I had to do this over again. #strategysmall
Missed the sweet (F)O(D)GEL. I am not in a good position, but any board opening play I can make will just get outrun too easily. FODGEL is a better version of this plsy. #visionmedium
I didn't like 11A COO(K)IE with what that gave back to him. I also wasn't a fan of getting rid of my E with C11 OPE. KOP isn't bad since I have 2 open Ns, but I think I needed a move that plays longer since CEILO is a bit risky of a leave- 10B PI(C)COLO accomplishes that while also being fairly sound. #findingmedium
he was low on time in the endgame, and I spent a lot of time on AQUAS so I was low on time. I have a win here - 2K B(I)N(I)T. fucking awful #endgamelarge I thought this might be good, wasn't sure
18 points off of HET because blocking the 2 row costs Deen dearly. HET follows a very complicated out-in-5 sequence according to Quackle. #endgamesaddest
WEEDIER only plays in Collins! :( WEIRD might just give up too many points. JEWED or WIDEN sim better partially for that reason -- i also bingo slightly more often after JEWED. -2 #strategysmall
I considered 15K GOURA#, which wins the sim by 1% win chance, and several other plays. I wanted to save the row 15 spot so that I might use it next turn. But Jane could easily score well in that spot if she has an O or Y. #strategysmall
I missed the R hook on JAKE and the L hook for PATAGIA (which I straight up just didn't know, I thought it maybe took an S or nothing). Once I saw that B9 (BA)IRNS guaranteed the win I didn't really think too hard. #visionsaddest #knowledgesaddest
I did not see the best rack-cleanup options here, C8 (R)UBIED or 13B BEDUI(N). Again a lack of ability to generate certain patterns that I must attempt to eliminate. (R)UBIED looks pretty good. #findingsmall
-7 it's not really the triple triple fear, but FS is not a great leave and i'm giving him some more letters to bingo through, C and R and keeping the E open. i wanted to obviously block the 2-2 lane, but something like 5K FORB is effective because if he bingos i have a good chance at a high scoring comeback at O1. #strategymedium
after CARD I want to reduce bingos as much as possible, but I don't need to open a 3x3 and try to outrun that way. I can just play M(E)TED and do virtually the same things. This was game-losing. #strategylarge
did not see the H hook on HUMP, and probably would not have known HUMPHS was valid. A play like HIE or HILI at 14L is a good idea here to set up a big lane #findingsmall #knowledgesmall
Drawing OOO killed any chance I had of winning this game. C2 APO has the best valuation; it blocks Carl's next play, and the pool is consonant-heavy, so I don't have to worry about keeping five vowels on my rack. #tacticslarge
If I play 11B B(AN)GED, I can't leave O or L in the bag (provided Ben plays N2 WAX(IER)). After WAXIER, B(AN)GED still has a 60% shot. BUT even after drawing the L or O, B(AN)GED loses to perfect play. Ben has one move (from his POV) that wins 100% of the time: 11I UNRID because it goes out with every draw from the bag. So blocking doesn't work here.
If I assume Ben sees:
-11I UNRID but not INSURED (or doesn't see either), 11B B(AN)G or V(AN)G are probably OK since UNRID only works because it guarantees an out for him next turn and CDEVN is pretty good for the bag (by playing 2 instead of 4, I might get first-mover advantage in the endgame). Buuuut OBANG is a thing and it doesn't look entirely blockable. So my opponent would have to assume I'm setting up an O that I don't actually have (and a 2/5 shot is not incredible). My opponent is probably forced to find INSURED then.
-INSURED but not UNRID, then B(AN)GED might be OK? It would still lose to something like 11I SURED, but would win as long as he draws the U if he plays UNRED/URNED/RUNED.
-both INSURED *and* UNRID, then V(A)C maximizes my chances of drawing a bingo (there's 6/10 draws that work, which is the same shot as B(AN)GED as long as WAX(IER) is played). BUT, Ben's likely playing 11G INSURED for 72, so BONDAGE and BANDAGE (70) tie; BUNGLED, BLUNGED and BANGLED (69) lose by 1; and DOGBANE loses by 2.
Instead, if I play 2G B(A)NG keeping CDEV, I can sometimes draw into 11F COUVADE and 11G ALCOVED (or B5 ALCOVED and B5 COUVADE depending on where he plays).
V(A)NG draws into BECLOUD or CODABLE, but BECLOUD only fits on the B column and CODABLE goes in both spots, so Ben might play INSURED on the B column to block BECLOUD if I draw it.
The funny thing is, after B(A)NG, Ben might realize that I want him to bingo. If he surmises that I'm keeping at least three consonants after B(A)NG, he can just play 6 tiles (almost guaranteed to give him an out). Against the range of partial leaves CVD, CVL, CDL, and VDL, Ben's best play is (AN)EURINS, which (I think) wins 100% if he doesn't draw the V.
Soooo, after all that, B(A)NG might just be my best bet. Gonna put this one down as #strategysaddest
does BESNOW ever win? I didn't think so. Thought I could get us into a complex endgame where he accepts and probably still wins. Never thought I would play a synonym of the phony 3x3 I got away with all those years ago at 2014 Nationals.
Mack Meller found F7 B(O)W which fishes for LG, L? or G? and hits LONG(HO)USE through HO. That's got to be the best shot by a mile. Maybe not that long, but it's pretty long. #findingsaddest
I kinda like giving so little back with TORN, but QUIN may just be fine. QUINT plays will give me hooks. There's also NOR which gives even less back, the I and M hooks aren't really dangerous. Looks like a better version of TORN, I can get some INN plays too. I often feel compelled in these games to give back no hooks at all, but that doesn't mean TORN is the most defensive play. QUIN is fine for offence. #tacticssmall
I suppose COLT isn't bad since there's not much to score in this position. CT? is actually not that bad leave after O4 TOT(HE)R, which I didn't spot, despite the open Gs as floaters even though 7s I play would open up good counterplay for Eric. I think either TOTHER or 7H TORC look slightly stronger. #findingsmall
A8 TRaNQ is best! It sacrifices 17 points but gives back much less than QuANTISE (note QuANTISER#) and saves the S for KABS with several high-scoring tiles remaining. #tacticsmedium
thought i needed to score but this is too dangerous. If I draw two Is, im toast. Maybe I go for M6 SI and draw into DAUTIES or GAUDIEST. #strategysaddest
didnt like awa because of the huge away hook i didnt have. anew i though was okay but blocked my bingo line to the d which i didnt love. What i think i need to do is play waiter or awaiter to force the board open #strategymedium