The sims said 6A SNOWMEN wins ~82% but 2J WOM(A)NS wins ~85%, which is a bit unintuitive. I think the sim might be overestimating 2J WOM(A)NS slightly because sometimes the opponent will fish 1 with 2 in the bag, but it might still be best. #strategysad
10M (E)VO is best. He can't block the O column for that much and it gets rid of the V while scoring something. 7A B(I)Z is comically terrible because of what happens next. I think I had about 20 seconds left. #endgamesaddest
Other bingoes I saw here were 9C ARENOsE, 4D OvEN(W)ARE, and several thru the L. I'd rather open up 2 2x2s with this over ARENOsE, and make this safer play over OvEN(W)ARE, but I did actually have a 2x2 that I missed which was 5D EARp(H)ONE. #visionlarge
It's not bad for the score, but if I wasn't willing to do 1M (S)OB as that appears to give up too many points, 4G BOOR once again makes a lane that will be easy to use to access the left side of the board and keeps better. But even better is 4B OBVERT as that forks vertical lines and dumps the V. #visionsmall
once again being safe, though I missed SPElEAN in the same spot which I would be sure of as opposed to SPEANEd, which I was not, given I always confused SNEAPED SPEANED with SNEAKED SKEANED*. #knowledgemedium #findingmedium
I suppose he could have S(E)RAGLIO, the only playable 7 on row 14, and nothing else. I should therefore play deP(L)ANES A2 or fish with E(ME).
I didn't like 11A COO(K)IE with what that gave back to him. I also wasn't a fan of getting rid of my E with C11 OPE. KOP isn't bad since I have 2 open Ns, but I think I needed a move that plays longer since CEILO is a bit risky of a leave- 10B PI(C)COLO accomplishes that while also being fairly sound. #findingmedium
I decided FU(G) was such a weird play that it had to be a setup an overwhelming majority of the time. I did a bunch of estimations here and determined that this was barely worth playing if his play was a setup 80% of the time. However, what I failed to analyze was that this does block the hardest-hitting X plays, but gives back easy -AX plays in return which score around 40 points, so I'm not actually reducing Noah's average score by nearly as much as I thought I was. My other thought here was YO(K). I thought his range was specific enough now that the 14K spot would be mine a lot and that I could draw YO(K)ES or even something better a lot of the time. On paper I average well after BUR(F)I(s), but not nearly enough. There are plays that average more immediately as well, such as the bingo-seeking plays of M7 BUY and BUOY. BUR(F)I(s) should edge those out pretty convincingly in the turns after next, though. Even when I specify OUX as a partial rack leave, BUR(F)I(s) performs remarkably worse than YO(K). And unfortunately, just like Noah, I missed a cool disconnected play that solves most of my problems and keeps the game much closer. 13G (F)U(s)IB(L)Y is the way to go here. It blocks any setup potential better than any other candidate play and scores well. It does block the 14J spot which I still thought was a good asset, but that's OK. I've already tried to draw into a big play there and failed, no need to put all my eggs in one basket with the score so close. A ton of time and thought went into this play, and it's a glaring error. Tunnel visioning into not seeing that this didn't rid the board of big X plays like I wanted it to, as well as setting myself up for only one good outcome. #strategylarge #findinglarge
Perhaps I should have thought to do 4A GEnITORS here, which is the top simming play, instead of either my play or VERGIToS in the same spot because it doesn't open up anything new for Brandon, even though I am sacrificing 4 points. It's still a relatively nice pool and I would not be out of the woods. I should probably force Brandon's potential counterbingo with this reasonably nice pool to score less and give me back more. #strategymedium
ERUV scores well, unloads two of UVV, and blocks the easiest lane on the board, row 13. Naturally, Quackle hates it. There is something to be said for Quackle's picks, B2 VUM and K1 VENDU, namely that they both save a scoring play at 1K (DRAVE and VARVE respectively). Honorable mention goes to G13 VUm, which scores only 9 points but blocks row 13 while saving 1K DRAVE. #tacticsmedium
Thought getting an S hook on the board would improve my bingo percentage but actually leaving the 8s lanes open with J1 LOX apparently gets me the highest bingo%. #strategysmall 21:31
I was down to 5:46 at this point and was stressing about time, so I played OX very quickly, as it blocks the B and scores decently. (RE)X is well worth considering to take out the RE- lane and keep a vowel. GNRST can go south far too often, all it takes is a two consonant draw. N5 STRONG looks like the play, not really cause it sets up the X but more cause it starts exhausting the bottom right - I could even make a play next turn that blocks the M and kills the entire right side (save maybe the K column). #visionmedium
I actually average more next turn after OWIES than OWIE! since I am opening the board it seems. She averages 5 more after OWIES but that doesn't cover the difference in score. That's kinda surprising but I guess it makes sense...? the S isn't amazing here. A bit confusing cause often you don't want to open the board cause they get a lot more benefit than you, but I guess here I'm making a scoring spot after OWIE. #tacticssmall
BUNYIP N9 seemed too dangerous given his two last plays, but D(A)UBY 7C is there, which is probably about 15 spread points better than this. #findingsaddest
I don't remember whether I passed up on the bingos or missed them entirely. But the top 5 plays are all bingos: D5 mUTINEER is best, followed by D6 cEINTURE, D5 rEUNITER, D6 gENITURE, and D6 UNrETIRE. #findinglarge
:O blocked IRONIES and DERISION and didn't have a blank! I think I have to go for turnover here with IRO(N)IES despite being more likely to hit a bingo after RONIN #strategysmall
This turn, I completely failed to see TRISTE(Z)A through the Z, which was yet another case of complete blindness to a bingo I looked for. I realized I had TRISTEZA right after I made my play.
I also looked for 5-way overlaps, but failed to see the only one, STARETS at I2. That's the play. I really didn't want to make an X spot, so failing to see STARETS and TRISTEZA, I could still make an effort to see RHEOSTAT, which doesn't create the X spot. #findinglarge
champ and sim likes 7g EVE which is fascinating. I liked guv over the board because it greatly reduces Ben's scoring chances, where he is scoring nothing without an s. the problem is that my average score is also greatly reduced, and my bingo chanced plummet. EVE is best #tacticsmedium
I now began to realize how many damn E's were unseen. This would be a wet dream for some.
I missed 6I (R)ATOO(N) which is a fantastic way to close the 3 row and further cripple Josh's options. WOOED L11 was a bit much for me, since after wISSING I'm basically just asking to get 3x3ed on. #findingsmall
sick block, though I guess it was pretty likely. This was a huge blunder since TELLY takes an S! I would like to say that I knew this and it was an exploitative move, but it wasn't. Optimally TROLLY is the best play here despite hanging the Y. Or just CLOY or COLY for safesies. #knowledgequestionable #tacticsfail
Although I'm in a great position after HAMATE (his bingoes will empty the bag, leaving me up a tempo in a close endgame, meaning a very likely win), I should still do AHEM N11 - I really loved what that did, but I was only 90% sure that AHEM didn't take an S, and if it takes an S that could be a game-losing mistake. I felt like the chance that AHEM took an S was higher than the chance that HAMATE would lose me the game when AHEM would win me the game. Either way this is just an estimation and a clear word knowledge error. #knowledgemedium
Yea, I looked thru the N in INCH trying to find something other that INTERNAL which would not open up a 3x3 for David. It's too easy to spend several minutes on a turn like this when I have a million bingoes available. Might as well just do 11A ReTINAE, idk. That's several more. #strategylarge
While this play might have been #visionsolid, I crossed out the wrong letters and had him having ANR left instead of AER. If I had gotten it right, I would have done C4 AVO blocking RAVE knowing he has many outs. Luckily I only lost a couple of spread points because of this.
i spent a very long time on this move before finally deciding to give up and try to cut spread. 14I OY is the obvious equity play here, and much of the time it's just met with another big comeback. i was up around 1000 spread and 3 games on the rest of the field, so the only way to lose the tournament is to lose 3 games by a combined 500 spread points. now that it looks like i'm going to get blown out here, i wanted to try to stem the bleeding and keep scoring tiles. #strategysmall