I think I had 10 seconds left here. I did not have time to track and didn't realize how good the pool was. 10N (P)O wins 5/8, this wins much lesser than that. #TIMESADDEST
i had too little time here, but i think i should keep the Q and hope to get lucky! 20-minute timer really messes with me, clearly OW is the only thing that gives me a chance to win here. -15 #strategylarge
hated everything. Quackle suggests W(I)G 7M. I get AUTO(g)ENY with AE and TOURNEY and YOUTHEN with VILLAE, YOUN(g)EST as well with ES, BUOYANT with 2A. If you're wondering why I'm treating this position like a pre-endgame, that's how bad this position is. I ended up running out of ideas and wanted to continue to distract Adam from VILLAE. with the E I figured I get TOGUE/EW if that huge scoring spot I shouldn't open stays open. This was a very difficult position that I failed to navigate. GUY M12 is also recommended, but yeah, I think W(I)G 7M. #strategysmall
Here I figured that 9-letter words on 2D were the most dangerous threat. Bingos on column B require designating the blank an A, and give me something back. CAIN seemed better than WAIN because the W fits better at F6. Quackle agrees with all this, but there's an even better block: AECIA L11. (-4) #visionsmall
I like the aggressive nature of this play considering I have an S and Dustin is random. But so far my board vision is slightly off: F8 (N)AW is 37 and is definitely worth it. #visionlarge
This was my second-worst mistake of the tournament. I saw multiple winning plays, including C1 RAT, which is tied for best. I was devastated when I noticed my phony. My thought process was something like this:
[on Dennis's turn] I see C1 RAT, that scores 19. Oh, I see 7F TAR making T(OHO)#, that scores 20.
[Dennis plays MOYL#] ok, Dennis keeps EST, where does that go? Oh, does STERNING# take the S? L3 EST would score 27. I should block. M2 INTRA# for 13 looks like my best block. [I set INTRA on board] Where else does EST go? Oh, he has 3A S(I)TE making S(HOVING), that scores 24. [I put tiles back on rack] [after calculation] INTRA wins by 1 after SITE ... RAT blocks, but it ties after EST, and I am unwilling to challenge ... TAR outruns EST by 1 point and SITE by 4 points, so if STERNINGS is phony, TAR is theoretically better than INTRA.
[I play TAR and hit clock] Oh no, I just played RAB*. #endgamelarge (-35)
TA screams she's close to a bingo and has an E, so I wanted to address this. 1A TROKE is a better version of RETOOK because that scores 9 more. #findingmedium
i should have played QUEUER (i wasn't 101% on it). i didn't want to give up an easy high scoring S hook. but it's important to balance my rack. -5.5 #tacticsmedium #knowledgesmall
Too crazy. I was getting nervous that a simple TRAPROCKS bingo would be the death of me and wanted to get more threats on the board, but I just don't need to play this aggressively yet. B1 BI (confusing notation, eh) bingos much more than BIO thanks to the better-balanced leave hitting COCA plays more often; a different approach would be B1 BE, which sets up 1A ONTIC/OB/NEF for me next turn. 6D OB is a pretty simple way to set up a new line without opening myself up to heavy counterplay. Just fishing the B at 2K also bingos a ton of the time. #strategymedium 17:01
MM: Quickly narrowed my options here to HABU and 2L HUB. Especially with only 1 S unseen not, I think HUB is correct and I once again got too paranoid about setting up S hooks for Noah that he might not have but I already have. HABU puts me up 28, which felt pretty safe on this board, but as will be shown was not safe at all if I have a suboptimal draw. HUB also keeps a vowel which is very important here. #strategymedium I think.
this was a pretty crazy draw. Quackle doesn't care and tells me to play NIX for 53 and open that huge spot. I felt I could hold this closed position, but maybe the leave is just too unwieldy. I score 10 points more on average after NIX, which is relevant here. #strategymedium
I was so close to just doing M11 KYU instead of YUK to be safe. Yes, there is huge Z-bomb upside to YUK, but Vince has one of the *fifteen* unseen Es and Os so, so often to play there himself, and it's instantly by far the best scoring spot on the board. However, I need to add that Vince put down QUID, then looked at it in frustration and picked it up to play QUIN - I kind of read this as an admission that he didn't have an E himself on that turn, which does tip the odds a fair bit in my favor. I probably should still have played it safe here. #strategymedium
couldn't pass up the chance to hit a giant requinto 1/4 of the time.. (and antique if it gets blocked sometimes) but there's not much else to go for. i guess QUEAN for a good score at 3I as well. (but maybe i should just burn the blank and play that instead). -1 #strategysmall
I saw I8 LAURElED before entering this rack into Quackle, and I missed L1 qUAVERED entirely. This is a weak fish. Somehow Quackle prefers L12 RUE with two R's unseen?? #findinglarge
I played too scared here. I thought my opponent was fishing but the bag is too crappy. It's more likely that he's bogged down with consonants and there's nothing he can do. I need to play O1 PONT or O1 SOAP and outrun. My play literally set up a lovely little X hotspot for my opponent to outrun me with. Genuinely, I could not have made a stupider move. Even passing is better. This is a time where knowing E4 PANTOS would have come in handy. #knowledgesaddest #strategylarge
Case S is extremely strong here with LUVS and a very bingo-friendly pool, so I played CROZE to at least partially block some stuff through the K and completely take out the the row 2 bingo line; 1I MOCKERS was very tempting as well. Obviously, I'll feel pretty stupid any time Joey triple-triples through the K after CROZE, whereas pretty much no bingo after MOCKERS will score enough to threaten me, especially with me holding the Z. I think I got a little greedy here and should've played MOCKERS just to secure the win. #strategysmall
N5 (D)ALTONIC got blocked and LACTONIC doesn't fit due to the Z being in the way. I think O8 COATI loses on the spot because that empties the bag and Scott could use Column E to take everything out. Maybe A8 AL is better just because it's 12 more and I could still hit ELECTION on Row 4 with 3 more Es unseen. #strategymedium
Odd that I didn't think of 5E OVERATE or even 10H COX; just debated OX vs EX, really. I figured the Z already played in some good spots and I would bingo more after EX than OX, which is true. But OVERATE is much better defensively and draws into XI 14J with an I and redraws the EX/OX plays atop MANURE next turn with any of AEO, at which point I can play them without worrying about high scoring parallels. #findingsmall 17:23
Very panicky. I was low on time and did not realize that triple-triples were unlikely with this pool. D1 LATRINE is fine. On the other hand, Moiz was very low on time and making a drawn out endgame will be favorable. #strategysaddest
It's probably fine to just score as many as I can immediately even though I was given the 10J hotspot, which is conducive to my F. It's simming a little ahead of GOX. #strategysmall
one of many ridiculous draws at the start of the tourney. I missed the two 8s that doubled the C after looking a bit less than a minute. I had already used a lot of my clock so I decided this was probably fine anyway since it blocks.
#findingsmall
It's better to go the aggressive route with 2J NTH since it sets up plays like 5I FAS next turn while taking out a lot of Karl's scoring plays hooking YE. #strategymedium
Yeah ugh this was difficult. On the one hand JOB C1 just looks like the play. Creates a big spot but blocks the likelier lane, and scores better than GOJI. But I got worried about him fishing for JEZAIL or having it. That's not really enough for him to win though, so I shouldn't have worried #tacticssmall
K10 IS bings way more. Whatever I play here, he's going to know I'm close to a bing. I might as well increase the bing % and fish the S instead of the N. #strategylarge because this is way worse for bing %.
a little upsetting that i missed mingled. i saw melding, and didn't immediately think it had an anagram, because i don't study as much as i should. pretty important to find the right plays in this game. -5 with an inference of IST or something like that; josh would never play ZIG without an S. #knowledgemedium
Scored as 78. This is the only bingo, but I did not consider playing at 15H after BENT came down; RABIETIc and BIRRETtA are available. #visionmedium #scoring
I saw AAEOPZ and was hoping the last tile would be a T for ZAPATEO. But I'm glad I didn't draw ZAPATEO since there would not have been a home for it. Now then: I think this is better than the 9C placement as it is more defensive. ZOEA would have been a little better just because I keep 1 less vowel. #findingsmall
Best play here is sick: EREMITE D8, setting up a likely QI C12 for next turn. QAT isn't awful, but you can see that EEIRT is a terrible leave against that pool. (-6) #visionmedium
Wow. I had severe tunnel vision on this first move. I only saw X(U) which was very defensive and draw into some stuff like OTOLOGIC and ZOOLOGIC or something else if more stuff is opened. The other thing I considered was IGLOO 9J to try and set my X up. I totally failed to consider another X setup play, COL(U)GO I5. It's a less worrisome version of IGLOO, giving around 2 points fewer back on average, fewer bingos, and giving me a little bit more. IGLOO is more defensive down the line, which is good if things fall into place, but not good when they don't. I also totally missed OXIC 7J, which is standard. I would consider this a mistake over COL(U)GO for sure, even though IGLOO appears to benefit me over time. FWIW X(U) sims similarly well to the X-setup options, and it also seems to complicate the game the most. With so few moves available in the position, I find it most outrageous that I failed to see other candidates, and am more concerned about that than anything else. #findingsmall #tacticssmall
I did like VOGUE setting up my S better than G5 GUV(s). However, I was not sure if VOGUED was good, and it is. Despite me taking out my own hook, it is clearly better equity. I don't need to be leaving the title of Doctor of Dental Sciences on my rack in this position. #knowledgemedium
Sim despises this. I get it, EEIO is weak despite the lopsided C/V ratio unseen and I'm still just letting the LABS hook sit there undisturbed. I was close to doing 11E ZODIAC but balked at the possibility of Vince opening column A with a play from 12A, creating situations with multiple very dangerous bingo lines available. 10D AIZLE is a fine way to score nearly as well as ZODIAC, block a couple lines, and make it more difficult to open the left side of the board while also scoring anything. #strategylarge
it's between yuch and huic here, but annoyingly i insta-played YUCH instead of considering them both. i think HUIC might have a small edge here because it's more defensive. #strategysmall
Generated a lot of options here. For some reason I seemed to be reluctant to just play OXIDE. Sim likes 11B OH, but I don't, since it blocks UTS and incentivizes Kenji to block SOH at all costs, leaving me with much more difficult lanes to hit. I didn't generate 9H TALLYHO which looks stronger than DO solely on the basis of the RIDES leave hitting so much more than HIRES. Also thought of N10 HORDE, 14B DEHORS, and a few other things. Ultimately OXIDE is just too many more points not to play, but the idea of making more S hooks that can't ever really be usefully addressed was very appealing. #strategymedium
I was about to play B6 KUE, but Mitch will play WAXEN if I don't. That said, M1 UNITE dominates the sim; after the sequence UNITE, WAXEN, KUE, Mitch will be down 17 with one in the bag, and his only possible bingo is N4 ESCAROLE. (If Mitch plays WAXER instead, he could draw 2C CLEANISH or M7 CLEANSE.) Thus it mostly becomes a matter of outrunning Mitch in the endgame, and according to the sim I have almost a 2/3 chance of success. If I play WAXEN, then the sim expects Mitch to play 4A CLEAVE, after which he can draw a multitude of bingos on columns M and N, plus the occasional bingo on row 2 or column B. #tacticsmedium
11I RAJA is best equity but given the game situation I wanted to play a bit more aggressively and keep lines open. However, something in between like 11K JA keeping a slightly better leave seems best here. #strategysad
I am terrible. I thought it was only KNAIDELS and that I had phonied with SANDLIKE before, but it was DIRTLIKE* against Vera in 2013 where I had TIDELIKE available and chose wrong. Stupid stupid, this is the perfect time to phony anyway. Dahhhhh also KADI and KINDA..... #knowledgesaddest #findingsaddest
definitely need to play NUBIlE instead of TUBINg considering last play. Still loses just barely. Maybe I fish a U for an A. I thought I could win if I drew the S. #strategysaddest
I liked this for defense, but XI bingos so much it looks like it's worth it. Especially for spread purposes it's probably the correct play, which would matter a lot later in the tournament. #strategymedium
The G is so bad that A8 KNUR is barely worth it for 7 more. 14L YUK is worth it though because of the open I in INFIX which suits leaving GNST nicely. #visionlarge
N: I saw 5K EX but I wasn't sure if I should go for the bingo that I was sort of sure of or play EX and hope I could find a bingo next turn. I figured the game was close enough that I needed to just get the points. Also a #knowledgesad for the challenge
this move symbolizes everything that is wrong with my scrabble game (i know that sounds hyperbolic, but hear me out). of course i should try to block, but the only thing that looked halfway decent was ADZ. still, the most important thing here is to ask myself how I can lose this game, and it is by him hitting a huge bingo afterwards, and me drawing poorly to RTVY, and him bingoing again. can that happen? absolutely. if i play ADZ, i force him to bingo at the top; row 2 or 3 most likely. I can then overlap his play, blocking any potential bingos, and i'm still up by a lot, and should be heavily favored to win. i even thought about something silly like VIZSLA being possible but if anything i have the V. ZOOID sims best of course. the biggest mistake i made here, and one that i make often, is not having enough empathy to put myself in his shoes and realize he's likely keeping an extremely strong leave. of course i thought the leave was probably pretty good, but it also seemed desperate enough that ZOOID might just block whatever he has, and that there's a decent chance he missed his fish as well. i didn't think he would have the blank. if i give him AEIS? as a leave ADZ DOES sim better than ZOOID, lowering his average score by about 24. with 4-ply ADZ is still on top. the only issue is that the win% diff is so tiny, yet i'm convinced this is a massive error. #strategylarge
Quackle assigns this the highest valuation, but M11 TOR and a few other plays have undetectably better win chances (99.99 > 99.99 apparently). I considered TOR but I did not realize that it forced bingos ending in S to play on column N instead of column M, thus giving me high-scoring responses. #tacticssmall