I mean at this point, the 8 more unseen Is are a problem, so I think that B12 GUL should have been the play to minimize my odds of a bad draw. It is simming at the top with O1 GUSTO to take out the dangerous WANDS hook. #findingsmall
Figured this would be a controversial move, but while I accept it's a mistake and I certainly got burned to the maximum possible extent, I had logic behind it, as I expressed on the stream; if Alec didn't have a bingo, I expected he might be more apt to open something than the Gibsons of the world. #strategylarge
#knowledgesmall for WINDWAy. I desperately set up a 3x3 with TAO. The sim winners are C1 ALO(W) and A3 OLEA, with the same idea. ALO(W) nearly maximizes my average score next turn, while TAO maximizes my opponent's score. #strategymedium
the only thing that would make up for the phony 4 would be to extend it to HOKYPOKY (which is obviously why I didn't just insta-challenge, why is that good but not HOKY*)
Quackle much prefers JE(O)N 3I due to defense. Makes sense. (O)BE even does significantly better than my fish. #strategysmall and #knowledgesaddest for last move having scored 42 and not 0.
saw 7H NO(G) but hated the leave. saw H2 KON(D)O but didnt stop to consider that, given that it scores as much as MONO, i should probably play it. silly billy mode activated, i say. can i call this a decision paralysis mistake? #tacticssad
I did want to save my I for JINNI plays as well as play some sort of defense on the bottom, but I do think that J8 (NOVEL)LY was a better way of doing that. #findingsmall
considered CODE and ZAX as well, but I liked keeping more bingo chances and opening a new lane. D(E)X bingoes more than CODEX by a couple percent! I do like opening a lane with CODEX though so he can't kill everything with agene. #tacticssmall
MOLASSE# is actually a big mistake, and I should attempt to go out with a bingo. 4A MOWS appears to be best, winning about 1/5 of games if Championship Player is to be trusted. #strategylarge
dunno, what letter do you put in the 2x2 lane if you know Matt is strong AND he has an A? He probably also has an E, so RETINAE looks better. #tacticssmall
-21 #endgamelarge. i should do better. I10 TE(L)OI looks best here. i considered GIT/GIN/AGIN, etc, but didn't see EONIAN. eventually i just said screw it, let's see if this works.
i should have played QUEUER (i wasn't 101% on it). i didn't want to give up an easy high scoring S hook. but it's important to balance my rack. -5.5 #tacticsmedium #knowledgesmall
I tunneled on fishing and didn't see 14A LYMS, which seems best here. I was thinking that this play wins with any vowel + blank draw threatening SALMONS/SIMNELS in multiple places. #STRATEGYSADDEST
This was a very lazy sequence for me. The first thing that crossed my mind after FUG was, hmm, I bet he has QU more than usual after a move like that; but I really should've stopped, taken a second, and realized that he practically always has QU after FUG - he also made setups on me in each of our first two games! Therefore, I should have at the very least considered 12I LITHO, which obviously is gonna do very well against the QU range. This isn't as bad as the next turn, but still probably at least a #strategysmall
considered QUAGS as well, since the G is a huge impediment here. Incredibly, my reasoning was off. The S doesn't improve Joey's chances at a bingo, since QUAGS is otherwise quite defensive. He also scores a whole lot more after QUATE because of the hooks, and my chances of a bingo next turn are only slightly better with GS, perhaps only because of how open of a play QUATE is compared to QUAGS. #strategysmall
I was hesitant to play 11A GODWIT just because it doesn't address the B10 hotspot, but 4 more points is fine and ITW isn't doing much on this board. John isn't going to shut down the lanes in CAPTAIN when he's behind. #strategymedium
I saw OcREATE, but I didn't want to give up a C hook at A1. This sacrifices 3 points, yet Quackle rates this an 8-point mistake. In hindsight, it was a mistake; I drew both C's and the other blank this game. #tacticssmall
It was about 2 minutes later during the game that I realized I missed the E5 placement for the same word. I would eventually hit that spot. But still, this is #visionbad.
I did see E5 DEXTe(R)S, but the leave is not great. The X isn't worth keeping for long on this board, which is where the duck agrees with me. DGST? is not 6 points better than EGS? which would have happened after doing H5 D(I)X(I)T for 24. #findingmeh
I had the right idea by making a 2nd S hook for myself, but I didn't do it the right way. 11H YOUR is the move since IIRSU is a very weak leave. #findingmedium
there are no scoring spots on this board, and the pool is clunky. Therefore this is actually a really poor decision over U(K)E or (K)UE. KUE was my other consideration, but I liked how this kept a bunch of things open and allowed me to sscore well next turn if I couldn't bingo. #tacticslarge
96% to win, but this turn called for more than combinatorics. DULC(I)NEA is two more points, and I don't really see why I shouldn't play DULC(I)NEA. #findingsmall
I spent most of my time on this turn trying to figure out how to block his 3x3 in a strategically sound manner, but DUNE H12 did not come to mind. That would have been a lifesaver.
i had a feeling this wasn't a good move, but i actually could not find anything better. i think i thought of OUCH E4 but that's only marginal. i like TOUCH but there's a lot of unseen Es. 2B URETHAN is the clear star play here; just need to improve anagramming. -7.5 #visionmedium
N10 BEG sims best against a random rack, but after 9K S(O) and the available pool, it seems extremely likely that he has another S. It seemed like the game would be over if I play N10 BEG and he bingos on the O column or even just plays there with his S and I'm holding the Q. I thought my best shot was to to throw the Q back (holding consonants because I thought the bag seemed slightly vowel heavy) and hope he draws it after his N column bingo and I respond with an 1H bingo or column O bingo. However, even simming against the best possible racks, N10 BEG is winning every time. It's probably partly because he is unlikely to be holding a U, which gives me a good chance of drawing a U after N10 BEG. But even with AENQU??, I'm not sure how I can ever win after a column O play. #strategysaddest
I really did not like any of my options and I thought there was a good chance Jim would play at H1 again allowing me to bingo through the floaters. D7 (ABID)ER is probably fine. #strategylarge
ThEOREMS was missed, but may or may not be better. I honestly stopped looking in this column after a minute, so it's sort of an error either way, if that makes sense. #findingmedium
chickened out on 1K TARG(A) but no reason to try that if i have a win, only if it was my only play. -5 #knowledgemedium
i got so freaking lucky this game despite making a number of bad plays.
I think it's fine to pass up MISDEAL in favor of MISLEAD since MISDEALT is also good. But what's not fine is missing the 2x2 of 5E M(A)LADIES and missing out on 25 points. #findinglarge
this is so frustrating. first of all, SPONGED etc plays. yet, I have to challenge off a collins-only 9 confidently to win any games here, a perfectly plausible word, which is actually shocking that it's not good in TWL -- what else does a GOSPELER do?? how can GOSPELER / GOSPELLER be good but not GOSPELLED? a GOSPELER GOSPELS right? this game drives me crazy. #knowledgelarge
Stopping miracle column A bingos and scary plays like 10B JAR. Something like 2I DINTING is mostly bulletproof as well, though I guess it would suck if Benjy had AGITABLE or EGLATERE. Quackle also likes 11H EMEND which I admit looks quite good to me, holding my lone vowel to dump the Q if I draw it and blocking the N and T of OUTPAINT. #strategysmall
quackle thinks just POGO at 13D, maybe it's not worth blowing up the rack. also playing at 13C might be best. i wanted to start taking out some problematic spots. idk, be aggressive. -4 #strategymedium
Didn't see SPREDD, which must be better just to shed so much clunk. The left side of the board isn't quite as dire as it looks thanks to ANANA. #findingsmall 16:44
L3 ON(L)OAD is possible here to attempt to rid myself of the Q next turn with M2 QI. Otherwise, 6M NOO or 6L ONO make life very difficult for Seb with most racks. I was quite regretful of this decision to go for turnover over optimality. #strategymedium
Sim slightly prefers G1 VIMS; it scores a lot more and doesn't offer parallels thanks to the V. In fact, VERMIL yields more points to Andrew on his next turn than VIMS does. Obviously, I do much better on my own next turn holding the S, but still #strategysmall
I thought I was dead, I didn't see IO(t)A on my timie and thought he had just given me a chance to stay in the game with WO. IO(t)A is by far best. I was playing well until IRONIZED. #findinglarge
D10 ETUI is fine, but this isn't. I was afraid of making another S hook, but at this score I think the equity doesn't justify what I did. #strategymedium also #knowledgesad for the challenge.
or ZA. I only hit 11/46 on the O column but another 6/46 on the 6 row, 4 more on column E, and also OVERTASK on row 15. Looks like a small improvement over AT #tacticssmall
I haven't seen DSO in a long time I guess. Didn't even come close. Was lucky to have this backup or this would be a massive mistake. -6 #knowledgemedium