It's behind playing through this rack with K6 DJ(I)NN with equity, but it actually sims competitvely with DJINN. when I sim this one. I hated DJINN since that takes several hooks 1 space short of the DWS. After DJIN, DNR? is not a bad leave with an open E or O. Playing DJIN could, however, cause Cesar to hook DJIN himself and make it hard for me to use Row 11, especially if I don't draw a vowel. In a do-over, I might do DJIN just because I'm down a lot and if he doesn't have an S or N, he might have to leave it open. Definitely an instructive position when I have spread to make up. #strategymedium
XI C9 might work enough that it's worth playing? Man, plays like that are so hard to pull the trigger on. I think Michael would even sniff the setup sometimes. Dunno? XED in the same spot is probably a bit better, which I figured afterwards, just liked the E a lot more than the I. #tacticssmall
CoCo Seattle Scrabble tournament round 5. I have heard it said that on an opening turn, one should exchange rather than playing a low-scoring vowel dump, to avoid allowing eights. That is especially true here, as I can keep a better leave after exchanging AOU. #strategysmall
I did this... to set up a big Q play next turn and not give her an easy play of CIN(Q)S or DIN. This is still quite pathetic, and I have no idea why I did it. #tacticslarge
however, in 2017, I won against Joe Edley, thinking I had cashed, but everything else did not go my way and I ended up right outside the money. I saw WEEPIE and was just too uneasy about its validity to play it. I knew that I could afford a few small mistakes, so long as I didn't lose a turn. Though, I had lost a turn to Karl earlier in the tournament and still won that game. WEEPIE is obviously a word and I just have no self-confidence. #knowledgesmall
Despite opening a triple-triple, WASA(BI) (great sushi there by the way) is probably the right play, since it distracts Jason from the X-bomb at J10 #findingmedium
hated the idea of a forking bingo at 14H, creating H15 and O column stuff. This still creates long-term weaknesses. A similar idea is to play 8M LOO, block that S hook and scoring spot and keep a better leave. This deals with the more troublesome of the two spots a 14-row bingo would create, creating indirect prophylaxis. The idea of creating a new lane without blocking any specific bingos might have given me too much pause. #strategysmall
considered K2 POLKA but in the end i can't pass up that many pts, even if i have the case S -- i have the blank! and this move ties the game. i also wanted to take a potential big -ED play for him. didn't think of 6J FLANK. -3 #strategysmall -- i suppose.
okay wow fishing off the O with M3 O(OM) has me winning 70% of the time. WOE wins like 40% of the time. Do i really need to bingo here? I guess if my opp has the J, they outscore me? #strategysaddest
AGINT better than EGINT, that's news to me. I'm heading nowhere in this position without an S, though if he bingos first (which I would prefer to prevent) it will often give me a commeback. FEH sims 4 points higher, gotta trust that #tacticssmall
Current opening theory dictates that I exchange A. But Quackle likes 8H AL followed by 8G LA, probably to reduce Joey's average score next turn, despite increasing Joey's likelihood of getting a bingo and decreasing mine. #strategysmall
Can't make myself pull the trigger on PoTENCES for 4 more. No 9s available but I spent way too much time looking and trying to talk myself out of SERPENTIC* #knowledgesad
MM: First of several awkward decisions especially as I was getting low on time. Mainly considered this, AVOWED, and PAWN/NU. With still a small lead and 2 Ss unseen I decided the conservative approach was better. AVOWED opens a dangerous 2x2 lane for SO----- bingoes, and NU could give back huge scoring plays with SH--- and such at L4. In hindsight, my small lead didn't turn out to be very safe, so I perhaps should've done with NU. I'm going to hit SNED next turn, and if Noah does hit a big play there (which is still fairly unlikely) he'll give me an opportunity to bingo back with my AEDNS leave. Going to go with a #strategysmall here.
There are 7 wins for me here, ranging from just blocking 14J to outrunning with C1 CLOW. I have tracked correctly. I know my opponent has QUARTET on her rack. Unfortunately, I am low on time and do not see 14J QAT because I'm too busy looking for a spot for QUARTET. HUGE fail not blocking 14J. #endgamesaddest ALSO TOS*
I felt like he's always gonna block with plays at B12 after something like C11 LUG and the X seemed really important so I went for turnover and score, but maybe the leave is just too bad. Scoring under 20 in this situation just seemed hopeless but maybe I need to keep opening and go for a bingo through the V or something. I dunno. #strategysaddest
BI "only" bingoes around 78% of the time. i always miss ZEDA, something like 1K ELAIN is pretty good; i'm a little less enthused about stuff like 10M AIL. i don't know. i didn't realize this was that bad, although i thought it might not be best. 10M AIL bingoes more than 50% of the time, which seems slightly high, but i guess i can buy it. -7.5 #strategymedium
he was low on time in the endgame, and I spent a lot of time on AQUAS so I was low on time. I have a win here - 2K B(I)N(I)T. fucking awful #endgamelarge I thought this might be good, wasn't sure
So Roman numeral 11 is good and Roman numeral 9 is not, as we already know. This position is deceptively bad because I only have HIT or HILT underneath VOX and neither of those plays keep good leaves. It is nice to be able to fork against Richard just because I need an open board against him, but H7 G(O)THIC cleans up the rack nicely and doesn't give as much back to him even though it scores 5 less. #findingmedium
of course, sometimes i just make bad plays. i didn't want to play FUG because it's much easier to end some random bingo in an S, but aren't there more words that start with S? also CGU? is not as good as CTT?. also FUGU through the U takes an E, etc etc. still, a lot of the time i am aware i am not making the equity play, but it very rarely seems to be right, and i should just play more like macondo/quackle unless i have a _really_ good justification... but then again -- look at the position. does it really make sense to just play FUG there, giving him a free bingo lane when up by a lot? i always struggle with moves like this and take half-measures. #strategylarge
IO# maximizes my bingo chance. I missed 11E PA(L)SIER until next turn, and I thought IO# was a blunder; somehow, IO# beats PA(L)SIER in a sim. I wanted to play the I either way, seeing that there were four I's unseen. However, the sim winner is K5 PO(L), blocking row 5 and minimizing Dennis's bingo chance. #strategymedium
wow. CEROES* is phony. CERO is a fish, not the number ZERO. never knew that. REBEC is still the best play, but i can't find plays like that when i'm 1-5 no matter how positive i am. -1 #knowledgelarge #tacticssmall
#knowledgesad for challenge There's like 7 bingos I can draw into after J13 SRI, but 6 of them make CHER and there's no way Kaia's not taking that spot or bingoing there herself. But I could still probably draw into N3 (O)RDERiNG?
Whiffed on some good options here, especially L1 DUSKER, and definitely should've done L1 RUSK, taking a small advantage on a bad board. KNAUR is also better than DROUK just to avoid keeping a U. #findinglarge #strategymedium 11:10
STOUP blocks row 14, the only bingo lane available to Richard (no O's or U's to parallel STOUP remain); but E9 INEPT does it better, sacrificing only one point while saving the S for row 15. OUTVAUNTED is awesome. #findingmedium
In addition to having higher equity than FINNED, 7M FIN allows fewer immediate bingos, more effectively blocking those making GAITT# which I didn't see. #visionmedium I guess
this time my play was terrible. i don't care. this is the worst draw ever to EIN?. i was trying to make it slightly harder for him to hit the triple but i may have also made it slightly easier. what a disaster of a draw this was, it nearly seals the game, but i deserve it for the bad play earlier on. -AIII sims best; i almost did that. -3 #strategysmall
Will: Hmm, I almost did BENJ and Quackle ever so slightly prefers it, but not for the reason I would expect (allowing fewer bingos) - it actually allows more bingos than JEW (24% to 19%), but almost equivalent average scores, which I think suggests that JEW is easier to overlap for solid scores on non-bingo turns. Even the leftmost placement of BENJ, which certainly looks like it would be hard to play sevens against, yields more bingos than JEW. BENJ then outperforms JEW on my own next turn by several points thanks to the more flexible leave. #tacticssmall
i had a very bad feeling about his rack based on my last couple of games, and knew i needed to race to the blanks and S (SWILE, two blanks unseen, etc). i thought i should block a few lanes. of course it's an overreaction to blow up this nice rack for 20 pts only when i can do L1 KAMI, which decently blocks the T as well but keeps a much better leave. 4B CINEMA is another very nice alternative. this is clearly me being scared and overreacting to the way this tournament is going. -7 #strategymedium
Most interesting position of the game is here. I spent a while considering the merits of E4 GLAD and E4 GLADE -- the X setup is beautiful and massive, and hitting an A or O with 4/5 draws seems pretty likely. It is probably pretty important for me to hold the E and only play E4 GLAD on the offchance that I miss every vowel draw. Ultimately, I chickened out and decided to take the guaranteed points. But it seems like blocking lanes to the E + scoring + setting up a SECOND X bomb outweigh the security of crushing the spot now. After the game, I pointed out the potential setup to Josh, and he said something like "that would've made the game interesting. " So there's that. #strategysad I guess.
still need to improve at defense. D4 QI gives up way fewer points even though it scores 2 less. i can also draw stuff like hoplites or bingos to the S. i think i was trying to block the S lane partially, but that's not worth sacrificing easy triple pts. -6 #strategymedium
Perhaps I should go for broke for a bingo here with DEXIE or ICE, but INANE seems ok too. Quackle is pretty emphatic that DEXIE is better; I did see it but felt it made the H15 triple so easy to crush. The extra bingo% makes up for it. #strategysmall
Would've been funny if I played my other choice of 2B URP because then I could say "Your play: URP" - I somehow missed 2D PRURIENT. Pretty lazy. #findinglarge
this was a pretty crazy draw. Quackle doesn't care and tells me to play NIX for 53 and open that huge spot. I felt I could hold this closed position, but maybe the leave is just too unwieldy. I score 10 points more on average after NIX, which is relevant here. #strategymedium
It's not bad for the score, but if I wasn't willing to do 1M (S)OB as that appears to give up too many points, 4G BOOR once again makes a lane that will be easy to use to access the left side of the board and keeps better. But even better is 4B OBVERT as that forks vertical lines and dumps the V. #visionsmall
Drat. Still not rock solid on finding the 30k-40k probability 8s like UNFIXITY, which plays at A8 for 89. I'd have had a shot of seeing it if the X had been a natural tile as opposed to the blank designation. #findinglarge