Despite that it scores best, Quackle hates WRECK, because it keeps AEU with a vowel-heavy pool; 12K EAU is best, saving WRECK for next turn. #strategymedium
8G TAKING has the best equity. I was leery of giving up an extra bingo lane, easier sevens lanes, and a chance to hook TAKING while using a DWS, which is why I chose KIANG; but I should also be concerned with keeping two T's. #strategysmall
Pretty interesting sim result here. Quackle's favorite play here is F7 FROG, followed by 2J HOG, 8L FAIR, 2J FOG, then my move of 2J FOH, then 8L FARO. They're all really closely packed together in valuation. Terry just bingoed and the board is loaded with high-equity scoring spots so simulation is going to be even more accurate than usual. FROG is both the highest scoring and most defensive move, cutting off SLEW and badly damaging the scoring potential of any racks Terry draws with the X in it. (By contrast, the Z plays all over the place on this board and there's little I can do about it.) I didn't think of FROG at all, unfortunately. On the other hand, I'm losing and might like SLEW to stay open. HOG vs FOG vs FOH at 2J is quite interesting. Sim prefers HOG, perhaps expecting me to get down some much heavier bingos with SHEN and THEN afterwards. My play of FOH gives me the highest bingo% on my next move, but nevertheless trails HOG by 3 points per turn because of those heavy bingos I draw into, and which stay open a huge amount of the time thanks to the other good scoring spots available. I'll give FROG a #visionsmall and HOG a #tacticssmall.
Considered A6 VIDEO; classic give and take between points and bingo%. The RASSLER lanes look pretty appealing for bingos but odds are pretty good that they get blocked. The plays sim in a near dead heat with VIDEO slightly ahead. #tacticssmall
O12 U(P) and 4K U(T) win the sim, giving me a 6% chance of winning while everything else is less than 5%. I think the sim assumes Rasheed will sometimes play on row 2 making H(EW), after which I can play a bingo making W(HEW) and scoring 109 or more if I draw any of ?AFHLR. Never in my WILDEST dreams would Rasheed do that. F13 (G)U# is another option, setting up a lane on row 15 that Rasheed will surely block. WUD has the best equity. #tacticsmedium I guess
Y setup! I could be more defensive with H11 EMU or something, maybe that's the call! with the 3 row and such I like setting up a scoring spot, but maybe it gets taken organically too often. given the deliciousness of the 3 row for the Y already, I think EMU is fine cause I score a lot, only a few less than after swum. #findingsmall
I had no idea what to do here. This is probably too easily blocked by plays forming NOR. Sim says 3H FOE is best and what I played is 2nd. #strategysad
I also considered KI in the same spot. Was going to play that until Mack gave me 2 more points for EKING. KI is potentially still better, but Mack is definitely likely to try and block row 5 next and if I don't hit immediately I might be in board trouble. Row 14 and column K are still available after KI, which is probably good enough. #tacticssmall
did I actually assess this as "I'm setting up TI(NKER) for 3 more and blocking IZARD-like plays so I'll sac 2 points" or did I just flat-out miss THE. I think the latter #findingsmall
EBBS is annoying now, there's something to be said for leaving the C open in part to make a lay down to D8 to take out EBBS. however, ebbs isn't a huge threat cause it opens the triple for me, so outrunning is more of the goal here, with VIGILS open a bit as well. TAKA looks good for both of these goals, DFIU is more balanced as well and I block VIGILS. #findingmedium
must have missed M(U)GG, obv better. I didn't like that this also closes the option of opening the top left later on, GRIM opens this marginal G line but prevents me from doing a good setup there later. #findingmedium
i spent a little while doing math on this move. 2 of the 43 unseen tiles are Z and J, so the chance he drew at least one of them is 1 - (41/43)*(40/42)*(39/41)*(38/40)*(37/39)*(36/38)*(35/37) or about 30%. First of all, is that actually right? And second, i estimated it as roughly 25% - which is not quite right, but i figured it was close enough. I should figure out a better way to do this kind of math. either way, it is probably for naught because the best play is either NOOGIE or GOOIER, sacrificing 8 pts but keeping a more workable leave, and not opening up as huge of a hotspot. -1.5 #tacticssmall
PITOT 10J is better, once again because F2 (A: 10J?) is such a big spot. Also better is TIPTOED 13C, breaking up the unpalatable DS combo. (-3.5) #visionmedium
so defensive .. 10H TOO scores 4 more and it's worth continuing to be aggressive when the board has some juicy bingo lanes. i think? -4.5 #strategymedium
I'm probably a favorite to hit one of the S hooks, but I'm also up and wanted to shut down the easy lines. I thought ALEW was an interjection and I didn't think ALEWS was a word which is very sad. Maybe K11 F(I)N is fine here. #strategysaddest
I didn't have much time here and decided I just needed to play fast and I missed K3 (G)OETY. I also wasn't sure of 12H (C)OUTHY. #timesaddest #knowledgesaddest
So I blew the endgame here. I knew what the 8 unseen tiles were and I knew there were two places on the board for bingos: the D column and under PRAISE on row 2. All I needed to do was calculate what bingo my opponent could play through the N on column D and then block the bingo lane under PRAISE. Even if I didn't see FAAN (which I didn't #knowledgesaddest) to play O1 CLUNG or O1 CLUNK etc., I still could have done N2 GLANS. BIG oof
whenever i have the option to overlap the same word above and below, i ALWAYS pick the wrong one. i don't know why the simmer likes the top one so much better (almost 4 pts??). help? #tacticsmedium
#findinglarge Missing this was frustrating but not surprising. High point tiles in weird locations like this has been a pretty persistent weak spot for me in practice.
This is the best in terms of win %, winning 7/8. N12 Z(I)G does the same but with a slightly better equity. #endgamesmall and #knowledgesmall for my sad challenge next turn.
eep I saw FUMULI and FAMULI but just wasn't sure at all the difference is smaller on this board than usual but it's still clearly better to play fumuli (I average more next turn after cumuli) #knowledgesmall
Was convinced that it's spelled WILEY* #knowledgesad also #knowledgesaddest for not playing more Hyperspace Hooks IDK maybe 10D (D)IV here? I wanna get rid of my R
This wins a sim but I'm not sure if it's correct against a human. It might be blocked by plays on the N column too often, I dunno. Also, #knowledgesad for the challenge of MICKY.
Second mistake in a row. I need to play BEEPING now while I have a playable bingo that scores 78. I balked at evening the score only to still be down tempo afterwards with potentially massive overlaps available; but there's only one A and one O left, so it's possible Terry can't even do anything on column A after BEEPING with APE/OPE. Also, GP? is pretty poor and there are a ton of whammy tiles in the bag that will torpedo my bingo% if I draw them. I regretted not playing BEEPING almost immediately. Quackle says it's a 7 point equity mistake. #strategymedium 10:20
13K PILCH# is better, saving at least 1A AY and reducing Jack's scoring potential, even though I can't always go out next move. HIPLY often allows plays like O11 PH(Y)LA or PH(Y)LE. #endgamesmall
10D RIFE would have been fine, EIN is overall better than just I. But then I make Libero have to outrun me and I take out a high scoring bingo lane. #strategymedium
This absolutely needs to be something at 3E or 3F using up more tiles. I liked the annoying O column lane that PAN created, especially with the possibility of a huge ZE/OX/NO hooking play coming down and crushing me, but something like GAMBA also creates lanes while avoiding being saddled with 5 consonants. #strategylarge
Jackson overdrew and I overturned EIN putting back the N
B1 WOOdR(U)SH iis therefore the play because he can't have a game-winning (W)HITENER to go out
Here I'm hoping he doesn't block the N and I get DISHONOR 3x3
#knowledgelarge
quackle's ridiculous robot brain wants me to do J12 TEAT or TEIN so i can have a great chance at a triple-triple or at least a bingo up top. pretty crazy. the equity loss here is gigantic, but i'll just roll my eyes at it. #tacticsmedium
quackle likes 14A ARVO solely because it bingoes a lot more than my play. should i really do that? it seems like it gives up more points and bingoes than FRAT. what a weird move. -4 #strategymedium ??
And SIEGING doesn't play. I hate it when these small exchanges don't pan out! This was a suboptimal move and is where I feel like I lost the game. I can score the same with 9E GI and keep much better. While I do set up SEXING, he can use Column G to both score and block effectively. #strategylarge
it's more important here to keep a balanced leave; OOZE does that better despite giving up quite a bit more points. i also score a lot more after it than OOT. -3 #strategymedium