wow this is awful! I def overestimated EEESX and underestimated EIQ. Us are out, I have QI as backup, and QUIN? plays at the bottom right can hit hard. M1 EXES looks like the play here. I also didn't realize K6 QI is better than this cause I set up EXES next turn for 51!! well worth the 2 point sacrifice, but EXES still kills that in a sim #tacticslarge
best is nickel-and-diming with any sequence of C6 (C)U(T), 13A JA(R), A13 (J)o and (Jo)T, which gets 54 points total, whereas this one gets 45. I saw JA(R) as an option over the board and dismissed it too quickly. -9 #endgamelarge
I think it's fine to turn over more tiles here to try gunning for a hook to CIVILIZE. I think PULLING is a better version of MULLING so that I can keep the M for the 8L scoring spot. I don't like LUMPING because there's still an S unseen for the SLUMPING hook, which could basically end the game on the spot if Noah hits a bingo there. #findingsmall
OY E9 wins the sim, even though there aren't many bingos to be drawn. It's probably even better than that since Rafi is telegraphing a bingo and might give me more lanes. (-2) #strategysmall
huge misplay this turn, totally missed a lot of interesting options. HUMANE opens the door to GE(D) and LE(D)E and LE(D)GE as setups. GAED N2 is also perhaps a better play. S(T)AGED is interesting as well. The key here is whether he has a blank on his rack. I think the answer is usually, since Q(I) for 31 would often come down. But with the board not great for bingoes, or a rack that isn't helped by the blank a lot, he may elecet to play Qi without another blank in hand. I remember thinking it was decently likely he didn't have another blank, but wasn't sure. I now think that he would probably keep the blank very often and play for 31, the options to outrun in an endgame are immense. A sim has GED, LEDGE, STAGED, GAED, EDGE, and GLADE I'm really not sure what's right, but I am pretty sure I would play LE(D)GE had I seen HUMANE. #visionsmall
I basically stopped looking after I found BATEAU. There are many plays better than this, including Quackle's pick C2 ABATE, C1 ABYE, 2L AYE, and 7B BATTIER, which is significantly more awesome than this. #strategymedium
This and B1 ANALySE are the highest-scoring bingos, but they give back high scores on column A. Quackle prefers 2B bANSELA for 68, with C3 kANTELAS and pLATANES and 9G KNAWEL(!) not far behind. #strategylarge
I really lost it here. As soon as I saw POSTFACTS I burned like 3 minutes deciding whether it was good and didn't think about anything else. 13G (FA)TSTOCkS is the actual valid 9. POSTFACT doesn't take an S. #knowledgesaddest
10L PEH is better, presumably because it blocks the high-scoring bingo lanes in columns L and M. I like EDH because it keeps my vowel, and I can score well with 10M EF next turn. #strategysmall
The sim winners are N1 GYRE, GUYSE#, and GYRES. GUY maximizes equity and bingo chance, but GYRE, GUYSE#, and GYRES score significantly more and turn over more tiles for the unseen blanks. #strategylarge somehow
it's a significant mistake here to miss DORMY. YOU there is (a lot?) better; it sets up a new lane and it also gives up fewer points. -2 #strategysmall
i'm pretty sure i saw EE, and thought keeping STEEN was fine. i don't like Os that much. it's kinda shocking to me that EE sims so much better at 7H, but i guess it also doesn't give back some big pts. yeah, i shoulda done that. -11 #strategylarge
I tunneled on fishing for 8A NON(QUOTA). Instead, since I don't have a good play using the U, I should keep column D open. J6 WOON# is best, but I didn't know (HEBE)N#; F6 WO(OH)OO# is second. #knowledgemedium
this isn't going well, but I can't play scared scoring defense. A5 IOLITE is much better balance and gives back way fewer game-losing bingos. #strategysmall
TOMCAT is just better. Forgot Noah had just studied his 5s and got pretty far alphabetically. I saw TOMCAT but convinced myself I would try to exploit his weaknesses that didn't actually exist anymore #strategysmall
Really confusing turn. Basically after EA I wanted whatever my play was here to limit the damage from AXE hooks. Sadly, I saw 10H NEAT and I guess didn't fully appreciate how effectively it accomplishes that task while keeping my vowel. #tacticsmedium
This play doesn't even sim because that's how bad this rack is. Probably should have exchanged down to CR instead of forcing my way through this. #strategylarge
I think it's fine to get the F off my rack since the F doesn't mesh well with the K or the M. It's very close with doing M12 FAX in equity and the sim. I am shocked to see that I actually bingo 24% after FAX vs only 7% after FUNK. That ought to sway me in the direction of playing FAX simply because I want to bingo asap when I have the blank. While I was hoping to pick an I for 14F XI, I definitely underestimated how good KMN? actually is for bingoing given the open S available. #strategymedium
AGINT better than EGINT, that's news to me. I'm heading nowhere in this position without an S, though if he bingos first (which I would prefer to prevent) it will often give me a commeback. FEH sims 4 points higher, gotta trust that #tacticssmall
Not sure how M7 MED is better when I dump an additional consonant with MELD. I definitely wasn't doing M7 MEDAL with what that opens up, but I think if I'm going to keep another consonant on my rack, 7M MUD is actually a farily sound play not offering Richard anything new to work with. ABDLT is not as bad of a leave on this board as I would have thought. #visionmedium
did not see the H hook on HUMP, and probably would not have known HUMPHS was valid. A play like HIE or HILI at 14L is a good idea here to set up a big lane #findingsmall #knowledgesmall
I took the points and defense, but AAR is a bad leave, I'm slightly behind, there are two good S spots (TOONIES and ALGUAZILS), and I know Cesar did not keep an S. I should play 13A CAY and go for a bingo. #strategymedium
I'm not sure if I'm supposed to challenge this off or not. It depends on how much I think Karl will see/find. If I challenge it off, the problem is I have no good plays that don't give back bingos I think he can find, and my rack is bad while he has the blank. On the other hand, if I keep this on and play 14B BR(A)INING, I'm down a tempo. I'm not sure what's best here. #strategysadder
I did this... to set up a big Q play next turn and not give her an easy play of CIN(Q)S or DIN. This is still quite pathetic, and I have no idea why I did it. #tacticslarge
The sun has pretty much set and I was also slightly tilted because I thought UNMARRED might have been phony (it's not). I have no idea what I'm supposed to do here other than resign. #strategysaddest
Even though I am basically hosed at this point, this should be 15H FRONT if I'm going to go here. I didn't recognize the JELLO hook for some reason. Even then, O1 FONT, which was missed, is better to leave the JELLS/JELLO hook open. #findingmedium
J4 ICEB(O)ATS #findingsaddest also #knowledgesad for challenge also I'm so sorry if you're rooting for the underdog in this game because i straight up zonked out
Q thinks I should play both FUNGOES and FAX over this. I didn't consider FAX strongly, but the board is REALLY bad for scoring if I play it, so there's a ton of defense value, plus the almost guaranteed bingo next turn. FuNGOES only drops my score by 22 in comparison with FOE, and drops his average by about 4. I think the dearth of scoring spots on the board should have led me away from playing FOE. #strategysmall
I totally fucked up and thought he had BINGERS and that I was blocking bingos through the N. Even if he did have BINGERS this still gives back B(OK) plays. #STRATEGYSADDEST
D4 KILL(JO)Y. I'm pretty sure I would have known this was good if I had seen it and I didn't even look at playing through JO, making it a #visionsmall mistake. Also #knowledgesmall for the +5.
i was very low on time at this point and freaking out about how close he got so i missed a million outs. i just picked something that scored and accepted the fact that i totally bolloxed up the second half of this game. -11 F11 YIrRS. my favorite out is G6 S(AVO)RILY (L is a blank). #endgamelarge #time
interesting position, depending how I view his odd placement of BLITE. it could be something weird like a scoring rack where he wants too make two spots, or a K. most likely is probably an X. not really sure. it's hard to justify blocking the X bomb cause my plays there are pretty bad and leave the G column. I could also counter-setup with ZA/BA, which mmight actually be fine anyways. this play was a sort of counter-setup, keeping 12a possibilities and h1 possibilities. Q thinks it's way too big a sacrifice, that I should just play YA. i'll call this a #strategymedium
14H (S)pELAEAN is 78! Despite AnNEALED being better because of the placement of the N, it was not worth the extra second to replace the two N's once I had laid the play down. #findingmedium
It's none of Jay's BEESWAX what I have on my rack (except if he tracked correctly which he did). Sadly there is no spot for this cool bingo and I would go on to miss F1 WAXE(r)S saving multiple out plays with BE. #endgamelarge
I static equity autopiloted this turn and the thought of possibly losing this game didn't occur to me but it's probably possible if he bingos twice. Playing off one more tile with L9 CY(A)NIC prevents this. #strategysad
I was already overtime and didn't want to have to deal with the Q. If he plays tiles, he's guaranteed to have the Q which he's stuck with. If he passes then the game ends in a six pass. Both of those scenarios were much more emotionally appealing than playing tiles and potentially drawing the Q, even if playing something is the best play. #timesaddest
Still shaken from the turn before and how bad I am, I oversee OBOL in the same spot for 4 more (or heck, even BOLO) until about 3 seconds after I hit my clock #findingsadder