I thought SCRIB was a word #knowledgesaddest so this doesn't leave a bingo line that I need to win. Something like 3K (C)L(E)W seems good here. #strategysaddest
i did see OXO but i found it much more important to kill that S hook on NAIRU. but is it really that dangerous? QUA also lets him score to the triple, although there's only a couple hook tiles left in the bag. D3 QAID is fine too. -10.5 #strategylarge
I chickened out of 11H INLIERS and then never saw 14A RESILIN #KNOWLEDGESADDEST oh my god. All I had to do was play a valid word. Like, just a valid word. I before E, bro. I before E.
i was in a bad mental state after losing the first game, and i know this affects me. FL(O)P is the equity play here. I think when I'm tilting, I just make weird bad plays, either adjusting to score too much or to leave too much, depending on how worried I am. I may have overcompensated here, thinking i better take the extra 5 points and keep MNT instead of EMNT (i even remember thinking the E is not worth 5 points, so take the 5 points, but as is common for me when I'm playing unwell, I don't pay attention to defense at all -- PELF gives up 4 more pts on average than FL(O)P). -3 #strategysmall
I'm not sure if I have to hope the S is still in the bag or try to block. I seem pretty lost if he has the S, so O10 OUTIE is probably fine here. #strategysaddest
10B WIENERS is far superior, but even if I don't see that something like C2 WRIEST is absolutely fine...way too big an equity hit with WURST just to get another S hook on the board. #strategymedium #findingmedium
N: L2 GIRRS gives me a better shot at drawing a blank, though I played N14 G(U) just to make it harder for my opponent to hit O8 bingos. #strategylarge
10L PEH is better, presumably because it blocks the high-scoring bingo lanes in columns L and M. I like EDH because it keeps my vowel, and I can score well with 10M EF next turn. #strategysmall
should probably play the bingos here for board dynamics and score control. Problem was I was unsure of both SLEAZING and GLAZINGS. I also missed D2 ZAG, gonna have to look harder in my cupboard next time. #findingmedium
big oversight here. I should plaly FA/AI, which I rejected because of the easy parallels it gives back. however, if I took a closer look I would realize that all of Joey's responses will give back an even bigger parallel to me. TIE wil give TIER, TIL TILE, TIN TINE, TIP TIPI, TIT TITI. same with FAN FAR FAT giving E hooks. #tacticslarge
quackle prefers taking the pts with B4 NAV (and also killing that part of the board). RTU? should bingo pretty often, and it's good to score more points here. -5.5 #visionmedium #tacticsmedium
O5 VIO(L) I have some good lines through the A on column D and on row 11 under the I, which are hard to block without giving something back. This seems a little reckless because it's making the board better for Elise than for me since I'm not keeping an A or O. #strategysad
missed GLOOPY in the same spot, which I imagine has to be better. PHYTOL I didn't count, but it seems potentially worth playing due to scor. POTTY looked awful. #findingsmall
there's a bunch of plays that sim better again, but i thought it very important to go for the X. there are at least two large spots for it, and it seemed like this was the way to win. macondo likes being more measured with F2 CUI(N)G or 7C AULIC, 7D URIC, etc. am i deluding myself and just getting super lucky? #strategymedium
I tanked for a long time on this turn just to play this. Sad! Better options are 6E (W)YTE and 10G BYTE, probably. I think I was afraid of giving back too much, but in hindsight that seems delutional because this probably gives back even more. #strategysaddest
I did see E5 DEXTe(R)S, but the leave is not great. The X isn't worth keeping for long on this board, which is where the duck agrees with me. DGST? is not 6 points better than EGS? which would have happened after doing H5 D(I)X(I)T for 24. #findingmeh
don't remember why I didn't just do TWIG here, obv don't bingo as much but outrun a lot better. I did FILE over WILE also to not make an extra S hook, hopefully can block POOVES and FLECKS together at some point #strategysmall
10F WONS has to be worth it even though this sets up my J nicely. I could draw a J play at C7 as well as hit K5 JO, but WONS is too many more points. #strategylarge
I think the better equity play of J2 KA is now a bit too dangerous. Yes, I am changing course rather quickly. But of course since OKA is also good, that's why its valuation is quite a bit higher than my play. #strategysmall?
i was actually doing some math here to try to figure out what the chances he drew an E were. i think i calculated somewhere in the 30% range. didn't see the amazing H10 PINETA. -0.5 #visionsmall
I saw AAEOPZ and was hoping the last tile would be a T for ZAPATEO. But I'm glad I didn't draw ZAPATEO since there would not have been a home for it. Now then: I think this is better than the 9C placement as it is more defensive. ZOEA would have been a little better just because I keep 1 less vowel. #findingsmall
Maybe H10 FOIL since the F is actually not doing much on this board. I'm not down a ton, so I don't think I need to be desperate to fork just yet. #strategysmall
Blocking bingos is not very effective on this open board. 11B TE(R)F(E)# is best, setting up yet another lane and aiming to draw another bingo. #strategymedium
maybe I should do COUNTERS here, I think that is fine. I don't want the top left to get opened, and right now it's gonna be pretty hard to open it. I didn't 'know HOROLOGER, and I think with my huge lead I'm taking I should take COUNTERS and be more defensive. #tacticssmall
This outruns every available bingo, but the best play is 14B SQUIRM, which blocks more of Jennifer's potential bingos than any other play, leaving only column A open. J4 WAZOO is notable. #strategysmall
D12 HA might be better here. I am worried about JET D12, especially since I have 10 fewer points. NAH K3 seems to hit more bingos than this and accomplishes the same thing, also sets up QI for 33. Seems better. I liked blocking all of the bingos. Hard to infer anything from MY. #tacticssmall
This is just a much worse version of (R)OWA(N) 9H and I could easily just play (P)OW or something but I still want to dodge the 10 unseen vowels #endgamesad
O4 ACTUA(T)E OOF #KNOWLEDGESADDEST the funny thing is that I SAW O6 ACU(T)E and it would have still been better than O6 TAU(T). WHY didn't I just play it? Some mysteries shall haunt us forever, friends
Once I made this play I realized it was not good. There's one place left to score easily on this board and it's E5. If I draw poorly after this, I won't necessarily be able to withstand a bingo and a scoring play from Noah. E5 BO is far and away best #strategylarge
So I should pull the trigger on 11E D(A)IRYING here. We had a real BUSHVELD moment with this word though -- Eric played it to open his round 17 game (and drew a challenge) and his son Noah played it in round 26 or something, also drawing a challenge. #knowledgesaddest
A really interesting first rack! PAYED is standard and I think I still should have played it. I didn't realize the S hook it set up when I considered it, which would have pushed it over the edge for me. Also, as I took a little while on it, there is some challenge upside. I could also do PAY or PYA to set up S hooks, they do well in the sim. I was worried about the overlaps after PAYED, and some of them do give back good plays to me, but he can probably find one that doesn't. I think PAYED is definitely better though, I average 6 more after PAYED! #tacticssmall it is a bit odd that I forwent the standard payed due to overlaps then I went with the PEATY that gives easier overlaps, but I felt that Y on the star was too bingo defensive for my leave. not a great play
MARKING is better than MAKING cuz of the pool, i think. quackle still doesn't like blocking, instead playing 15H MANGEL to open another lane? i really disagree, i think hitting the L would be a lot harder than a wide open lane with MANGEL, and another lane in row 3 or 4. 3B RAGMEN seems to be the best play that blocks the lanes in the top left, and it keeps the K for scoring. -5 #findingmedium #knowledgemedium
Potomac Tournament Round 3. 8D BANGS is better, obviously, and I did consider that I was giving up 8 points to play 8G BANG, but I genuinely don't know what was going through my head that I didn't play it #strategymedium
I totally whiffed the CHORIAMBI hook. I don't think I would have been confident of that. J1 GIRO, J1 TIRO, and J2 IOTA are all better. #knowledgesad and also #knowledgesad for the challenge
PEEpULS is much better. I only see UPSLEEP* and recognize that as a phony, and I had already lost 2 minutes because I was late from lunch. Still need to see that shit.
#findingmedium
EVET sims worse than obvious moves like 1F KEF but I like that it reduces Tim's average score by about 5 points and eliminates that nightmare huge 4x scenario. Still probably a #strategymedium.
wow, my fallback play if this was somehow not valid... is not valiid! BULBING* BULBED!
My confidence in the words in this position, from most confident to least confidence, was
1) BULBING*
2) RUBBLING
3) BLURBING
4) BURBLING
#questionable #knowledgesmall
This was an echo of the MUL(ATT)O/MO(G)UL position against Kevin Fraley at California Open 2018. JEW 4J is way better because FIDS M1 is unblockable. And I even saw it too! But I worried that I had mistracked and thought that Josh might play out and win if I was wrong. After JEW I'd be up 41 points but he'd get 16 from me, and his tiles look like they could score 25 points if there's a spot for them. With more time, I would have retracked the game to be dead certain that Josh can't play out, because that being the case, JEW/FIDS is best by a large margin. (-29) #endgamelarge #trackinglarge #timemanagementmedium
probably EpEEIS(T)S 5C for 2 fewer to not set up long-term forking potential with the W hook or something. Not the 2x2 ending in E thing, no, not that!! #findingsmall
Suuuuuper low on time at this point, didnt really look at what was left in the bag, and didn't want to lose to a trip-trip. I need to play 6J OE. I3 UN(d)OES is pretty cool (I saw O10 UN(D)OES and didn't want to float an S, so it's sad that I didn't see it at I3). My play, horrifyingly, actually gives back a lot (opp's avg score goes up 4 compared to OE and 6 compared to UN(d)OES/UN(D)OES with random rack, up by 7 and 10 if I specify J, and up by 9 and 13 if I specify EIRST). Huge #strategysaddest
If I'm keeping the G here I have to hold the N with 6A OWE, very basic stuff. I really do seem to misplay Gs all the time. Should be an easy fix... #tacticsmedium
D4 KILL(JO)Y. I'm pretty sure I would have known this was good if I had seen it and I didn't even look at playing through JO, making it a #visionsmall mistake. Also #knowledgesmall for the +5.
oh god, what an awful mistake. i really thought this was a word. i laid it down for a while trying to think of something better and didn't see nuncios. #knowledgelarge
G10 IOTA better to block bingoes from the r and hold scoring. ACIT can get clunky quickly. Not to mention IOTA sets up the K for TEAK if need be #findingsmall
J8 FI(XI)NG #visionsad. I liked FLIER because it effectively shuts down the left half of the board for good, and that's why I decided against FLINGE(R). But this scores too much and doesn't open more.
now worried about ABASIC* smh, the star play is 7G P(R)EED(I)T for 42(!). This hits PRIED 13I with an R, thought it might be worth going for. #knowledgelarge #findinglarge
he was low on time in the endgame, and I spent a lot of time on AQUAS so I was low on time. I have a win here - 2K B(I)N(I)T. fucking awful #endgamelarge I thought this might be good, wasn't sure