CP likes this, saying it wins 95%, but it's surely dependent on full confidence in CASTLINGS. Given that I did not have that confidence, a great option is 11D VOW/VAW, setting up SOZ/SAZ to follow up in the endgame, also winning 95% because the bingos Bradley does get down score so much less. Unfortunately, I burned a huge amount of time grappling with this position and somehow still didn't generate VOW/VAW, leaving me vulnerable to time pressure on my next move. #strategysmall #timelarge
this is often a failing of mine, failing to spot the very nice setup play of 9G OF.. but even if i saw it, i am not a huge fan. look at that ugly leave i keep, and imagine he blocks it. -3 #visionmedium
Yes, I saw 2A PANADA, and I absolutely should have played it--it scores better, keeps better, turns over one more tile for the blanks, and creates a high-scoring lane on column A, which I may need because I am behind. #strategymedium
I got the endgame wrong too. I had my tracking as if he had CJ, so I thought I was J-sticking him. If I had tracked AJ, I would have realized I can't stop him from going out, so the best play I would have generated would have been A4 (C)ICALA forcing him to play out with B11 JA(G). #endgamelarge
UH 7B is a fascinating option. I bingo a bit less than with WI(C)H or wHI(R) 5I, but my bingos score a whole lot more, without actually giving Ricky that much. He is less likely than average to have a D or an H to hook UH also. This would have been the right play. #tacticssmall
I12 (I)GLU wins. I didn't see 15A (D)OTATION. Even if I didn't, I might not have had time to figure out how to block and win. I just played this and hoped he wouldn't find a bing. #endgamelarge
I wondered if bURNOUS(ES) was good, but not so much because it didn't score anything and this might be better anyway. However, I missed aNUROUS somehow, which fits for 70 at D9 and is clearly the right play. It will be a close game, but aNUROUS gives me the best shot. #findinglarge
No floating B for BANDPASS or PASSBAND. That would have been a nice way to get my psyche up. I guess I7 ASP is fine despite the hooks it gives up. I guess Quackle wants that volatility when I'm down quite a bit already. Not to mention my spread is awful. #strategysmall
3B RA(V) setting up J*GGLE* bingos sims way better than anything else. He might blockwith plays on 2A more than the sim does, but I think it's probably still best. #strategysaddest
WATERI(S)H got blocked this time, yay. I will admit that I was mesmerized by Eric drawing into a lot of good things after playing longer and should not have tried minting the board with this move for another score on this board with there only being 2 Ns left. F12 HAW or 9G H(A)W score about the same and keep better. Yes, I might protect myself a little better by keeping the W to score again at F14, but the lanes in EMANATED and INTINES probably won't get blocked as often after playing off my H and W as as move like VOG. Threrefore, it would have been fine to keep AEIRT or EIRT to attempt to bingo again. My next draw was disastrous, and Eric probably would have ran away from me regardless if I screw up this turn with how well he drew all game. Maybe this would have been awash, idk. #strategylarge
B13 OW does sim ahead of dumping the Q immediately because I can easily dump it on a future turn, as much as well all know how dreaded it is. I would do B13 OW over L7 (Z)ORILS even though that is shockingly the top simming play out of everything there is. #strategysmall
i kind of gave up on finding the best way to win here. i'm not totally sure how to do it. it probably involves him having the Q. like - i'm going to lose anyway, so i shouldn't be trying to avoid the Q, just assume he has it and open up another lane and hope to draw for a miracle. i saw something like 2L MOI could lead to LEPORID, for example, but that seems easily blockable. 15L IM(ID)O is looking best here. #strategysmall
18 points off of HET because blocking the 2 row costs Deen dearly. HET follows a very complicated out-in-5 sequence according to Quackle. #endgamesaddest
This sims best but I'm not sure it's correct. I might need to make some drastic opening at this point because the sun is rapidly setting on this game. #strategysadder
I think I really need to do 15A DJIN here. This is a mistake that is very avoidable. I score only 1 less while giving back so much less to him. #findingsmall
it might be that the best way to win is to try to go out next turn. O9 CONDUIT/NOCTUID score a lot and may be possible ways to do this. totally didn't see them. minus a lot, #findinglarge
I wasn't sure if LEW(D) G5 would always outrun H1 plays, but it does just barely get the job done. This can lose to NO(C)T(U)RIAS if I leave the A in the bag. I only calculated RE(C)A(U)TION, which also loses when the A is in the bag. I transposed letters when thinking about the draws and didn't recognize this. Had I seen that drawing EY wouldn't necessarily win, I would have gone with LEW(D) #strategySADDEST
didn't quickly see HEAd(L)INE and just figured I wouldn't block. This I think is like 15 points off or so? Not terrible, but stupid. He could miss it I guess, but that would require me to see what it is he could miss. #endgamesaddest #findingsaddest
um. It would seem that I let him get away with TOL* here? This seems very weird. But this is what I have recorded. I'm gonna go with this not having happened, but I'll record the game as it is! Heh. #visionlarge?
I think of this turn as where I lost the game, although tbf it was probably lost at every point of "knowledgesaddest" in the subsequent turns. I didn't know C9 (Q)UITED, which sims best and I spent like 4 minutes going back and forth between C9 (Q)UIETED and J5 DEI. Obviously, I chose wrong, oop #knowledgesadder #strategysadder
Keeping the G for 13C, but CURVET is better; though it sets up a high-scoring S-hook on O3, there are already high-scoring S-hooks available. Quackle prefers 4H VENGE, but given the board I don't like it as much. Honorable mention goes to 13B EGRET, which sets up my R with only one unseen; Quackle doesn't seem to consider it. #tacticssmall
venge 30
curvet 29.4
verged 27.7
curve 27.3
#endgamesmall O1 QI is better because after DREG he can block with OBE, saving AI for 9. If I start with Qi, he can't block with OBE cause that gives DREG back for more. this endgame worked out better cause there was the chance he missed my out
I'm correct to play off fewer tiles. But this isn't the right way to do it. Quackle really loves the aggressive play of 7H D(I)N for 7, which sets up my E and T nicely and opens up a 2nd potent bingo line when I am close to something and Joel isn't closing the board down anytime soon. I might have given myself a better chance with DIN instead of MAN. #visionsmall
same deal here as last turn. OBIAS raises both of our averages, this time mine more than hers even! EIOS isnot good here, the S isn't especially powerful, I should just go in with OBIAS. I guess the key in the last two plays is that the better leave with the low scoring play isn't actually that much better, which is why my average score is more affected by opening the board than by keeping the better leave, so it's better in both cases to take the points and raise both of our averages. here the difference in leave is starker. #tacticsmedium
Keeping INY isn't the wooooorst thing here, but it would be better to exchange everything except the Y and really go for that S, I guess. Next best exchange keeps ILY (maybe because there's an N still out?) #strategysadder
Quackle puts FUN and FUB very close to each other in the sim since keeping 2 Ns isn't exactly ideal to keep either. It slightly prefers FUB despite the duplicate Ns. #strategysmall
Quackle prefers 8C OY, which, unlike BOYS, leaves lanes for sevens ending in S. OY blocks columns C, D, and E, which may be a downside; but BOYS blocks them as well. K6 BOY may be best because it doesn't block any lanes and it even sets up a lane at L1. #tacticssmall
quai etc just seem bad. i don't wanna do that. QUAI only sims so high because my average play next turn does something huge with QUAIS and an SK word -- but she's either going to have the L or take care of that spot in another way, i think? i DO have the last S, but i don't like my chances of using the QUAIS hook at all. -10 #strategylarge ?
rough, he missed STERNER and I'm still in dire straits. I tried to take that as a good thing. ILK(A) I think was missed, that is similar, probably better #findingsmall
out of the EO/EE + FS/WS comboes, I liked EEFS best, at least right now. the W could be useful at other times, and maybe FOE is a bit better than WOE here. I didn't like the FO combo, so WOE over WEE, plus the hooks. I can also do EEEW here. I didn't like EEOS after FEW, inviting overlaps that I won't be able to hit well, and making no S hook. Q likes FOE best by a bit, I bingo a smidge less than after WOE but score a bit better w the W for overlaps. #tacticssmall
i suppose i should play a proper endgame here. this is how to get spread. i knew with near absolute certainty DOWNSME(N) was phony and didn't bother looking for a bingo from it (pretty sure i'd find ordinals if needed). i have to block ENOW with 12C DE, and then draw an F or a G, which i know are in the bag. G bingoes in both lanes, and F bingoes up top with SAFRANIN. i also have tRI(JUGATE), in case i draw the F and he blocks the top lane. I was going to try it if i needed it, but wasn't sure of it. in any case, this results in a very large spread error, even though the game is 100% won. -85 #strategylarge #endgamelarge
This is just horrible. I need FEAT for guaranteed future scoring, and I'm giving that away for some OUT bingos, some column m junk, and some duplication? I thought there were more As in the pool (I mistracked and had to retrack later) but still, just, no. Something like AHI, otoh, may very well be worth it. Definitely want this play back, and I even identified how bad this play was immediately after the game. #strategylarge
quackle prefers taking the pts with B4 NAV (and also killing that part of the board). RTU? should bingo pretty often, and it's good to score more points here. -5.5 #visionmedium #tacticsmedium
maybe I should do COUNTERS here, I think that is fine. I don't want the top left to get opened, and right now it's gonna be pretty hard to open it. I didn't 'know HOROLOGER, and I think with my huge lead I'm taking I should take COUNTERS and be more defensive. #tacticssmall
Bingoing now is a massive blunder. I thought I had to bingo from the P to block his bingos from the P but 14M SEI blocks those and saves the G(OLDEN) hook. #strategysaddest