Looked for a while here, no bingoes play. 11G MAt(E)RNAL and TAL(E)sMAN both got blocked. Seeing I had one of the blanks, and now the pool is meh at best from my perspective, I might as well scare Mitchell a bit and allow him to take one of the open triples. He could have drawn the W and/or Y after he just played off 5 tiles, and those can be bingo killers themselves at times. I just know he's gonna try to be as defensive as he can possibly be, which would require him to empty the bag in order to do that, in this case, taking out both 3x3s. That would allow me the best odds to bingo out and win the game. #strategyspoton
once again OI is a pretty nice play to set up a lane, now especially it's pretty justified. Also missed A(B)OIL here. I focused on the B too much and was too intent on keeping the scoring pressure on - don't always need to lower variance!!! hard to expect how much she'll open, so ABOIL seems fine as well. #strategysmall
There are some interesting choices that sim best like 2K B(AW)R, 6H B(I)R(R)S, O7 (KVETCH)eRS, 12C ROB(E), E10 B(A)R, 6M OB, and L12 (A)RB which are all much better than B5 SOmBReR since they don't always lose to an outbingo. #strategysaddest #timesaddest
Bad decision here, should've exchanged. The board isn't nearly lock-down closed enough to be grabbing at such a low number of points and keeping a V. #strategymedium
Perhaps I should go for broke for a bingo here with DEXIE or ICE, but INANE seems ok too. Quackle is pretty emphatic that DEXIE is better; I did see it but felt it made the H15 triple so easy to crush. The extra bingo% makes up for it. #strategysmall
missing the huge 14J VERSO #findingsaddest
I didn't see much I was drawing after the Q drop, but reasoned it might still be better than this. Quackle says this is 6 points worse than QI, citing a 24% chance of a bingo, which is way higher than I thought. I missed OVERSHO(T) I1 and OVERSOO(N) G1 in my iteration, and didn't know CROOVES#, and missed ANS# against so didh't think HOOVERS would play. #visionsaddest
of course, sometimes i just make bad plays. i didn't want to play FUG because it's much easier to end some random bingo in an S, but aren't there more words that start with S? also CGU? is not as good as CTT?. also FUGU through the U takes an E, etc etc. still, a lot of the time i am aware i am not making the equity play, but it very rarely seems to be right, and i should just play more like macondo/quackle unless i have a _really_ good justification... but then again -- look at the position. does it really make sense to just play FUG there, giving him a free bingo lane when up by a lot? i always struggle with moves like this and take half-measures. #strategylarge
Only did this because I know Peter left the punchless IOST on his previous play, but it's still better to play something more traditional undoubling and keeping my vowel like just 4B WREN. #strategymedium
this will be the last time I confuse WEEDBED and BEDEWED for BEDEWED and DWEEBED* and BEDEWING and BEWINGED for BEDEWING and DWEEBING* (I hope) #knowledgelarge
saw TUNNY and RUNNY but not RUNTY, which is what I would have chosen. I knew EIT was worse than EIR but felt the R in UNDERLIE gave the leave a nice boost. However, if I had seen that there were many T's to duplicate, I wouldn't have made this decision. Who knows if I ever would have spotted RUNTY. This was overthinking and bad playfinding. #findingsmall
This play is another mistake. I looked for some time for -LESS words and I can't be chickening out on things like K5 BeDLESS which is 101. The only playable bingo on Row 14 is DEBtL(E)SS. Even something as simple as 14G B(E)DS is better because it isn't worth it to keep 2 Ss on this board. #findinglarge
I did not know 11D TACHIST(E). Funny thing is, I can substitute the T with an M for TACHISME, which has 3 anagrams. This is the best nonbingo play, but still, #knowledgelarge.
Never considered that TUFT 4C blocks X and Q bombs. That alone makes it worth playing. I was really close to playing this but just felt Jason was too likely to play on row 2 anyway, but the Z has a decent future on this board anyway. Even if I assume Jason plays on row 2 a ton more often than random, TUFT is worth doing. I thought I was being mature, but I was just being cowardly. #strategymedium
i had too little time here, but i think i should keep the Q and hope to get lucky! 20-minute timer really messes with me, clearly OW is the only thing that gives me a chance to win here. -15 #strategylarge
pretty bad miss of AC(T)OR. (FE)M M1 hits bingos with a D, S, U and V and also Quackle wants me to play SCORIA 15A next turn a lot which I will never do, so M1 (FE)M has the best valuation. #findingmedium
This has the highest valuation. Quackle gives M6 AZLON a slightly higher win chance, but I think 11J NOLO is better than AZLON: it turns over the same amount of tiles for O1 QI; it keeps the Z, which has high scoring potential; and, unlike AZLON, it doesn't open sevens lanes. NOLO is probably better than this as well. #tacticssmall
After Bryan's last play, I was nervous about doing K4 NERVuLE. It's possible he might have had an R for the RANI hook, but of course he could have also kept AEIN or EINT as a leave. Accordingly, I chose a bingo that did not take an S. I couldn't remember if LEVANTER took an S (it does). That said, I should have given more thought to doing K6 NERVuLE for an extra 2 points and if Bryan might not have kept high pointers to try to go for them myself. #strategymedium
Since SUE was played quickly, I really thought he kept nicely. Still shouldn't have passed up M11 GYP for 10 more due to OPAH still being present with 8 Os left.. #strategylarge
I was already overtime and didn't want to have to deal with the Q. If he plays tiles, he's guaranteed to have the Q which he's stuck with. If he passes then the game ends in a six pass. Both of those scenarios were much more emotionally appealing than playing tiles and potentially drawing the Q, even if playing something is the best play. #timesaddest
I felt like I couldn't really play ARIETTE with FWW unseen. The best play is RETE C2, which blocks the 3x3 and clears up the rack nicely. (-4) #visionmedium
i thought the leave after C13 XU was too clunky, but quackle thinks it's a fine play. FIXT gives up a lot more points and i shouldn't be volatilizing the board too much. still, the game is very close now so maybe having an open board isn't that bad. -4 #strategymedium
I wanted to create bingo lanes rather than blocking them, but A(H)ULL sacrifices too much equity. G13 LUD is best; it has best equity and removes a scoring hotspot, at the expense of blocking row 15. #strategymedium
I got the endgame wrong too. I had my tracking as if he had CJ, so I thought I was J-sticking him. If I had tracked AJ, I would have realized I can't stop him from going out, so the best play I would have generated would have been A4 (C)ICALA forcing him to play out with B11 JA(G). #endgamelarge
I saw 15L PI(N)T. I hated the leave with this pool and was nervous about potentially picking the Q. That would have absolutely screwed me over if Scott bingoes with either the FUDGES hook, the TOUCHE hook, or throught the E in KERF. And even if Scott doesn't have a bingo, I then have to potentially waste my blank to dispose of the Q. Championship player does not put this too far behind A1 TaWPI(E) and O8 VIeW. Lookng back, maybe I should do 5D W(A)P if I'll score something and minimize turnover if the V is also very clunky on this board, except if I draw -TIVE bingoes on Row 2, namely 2A OpTATIV(E). #strategymedium
G5 G(U)ANO ugh #endgamelarge
and he shorted me 4 points from his rack even though I knew it. I was rattled after this game. Matt was very much a destabilizing force.
UTA sims a lot worse than 6F AA; it says I bingo a lot more often with DESTU than ADES. wow, i had no idea that DESTU was better, and the three extra points make it worth it. (-4.5) #tacticsmedium
it's between yuch and huic here, but annoyingly i insta-played YUCH instead of considering them both. i think HUIC might have a small edge here because it's more defensive. #strategysmall
Bingoing now is a massive blunder. I thought I had to bingo from the P to block his bingos from the P but 14M SEI blocks those and saves the G(OLDEN) hook. #strategysaddest
13G QI is best. QUERN has the best equity, but the pool is less than good. Honorable mention to L2 LID, which occasionally draws into FREQUENT or QUITRENT 1A or QUEERING 15A. #strategylarge
tough spot. I saw J7 (SAD)HU but did not like that Q(I) 2J would not empty the bag. However, it keeps E4 EGO behind which I missed. That's huge. This just doesn't get the job done. #tacticslarge
i have to do something clever like 2K SIGH here. although my winning % is low, this is how to come back. the problem with my play is it just gives him an easy scoring dump. SIGH makes it tricky for him. also GRITH > BRITH. -3.5 #strategymedium
huge lowlight where I completely fail to see the possibility of a word fitting through an I in 3rd position. Andy had a 1/3 chance of winning by 2. I recounted everything after seeing a possible word there would tie. Found Andy underscoring MAW by 2, got pissed off, and was not able to see the possibility of EV(I)CTION. Horrible. Obviously, 9s may exist, and they happen not to. Terrible. #findingSADDEST