I put down CRAVATS and SHTETL, saw that it gave back WAI, and then did HEST instead. #knowledgesaddest for CRAVATE this entire game #timesaddest for this entire game
gotta do 15F BU(S)TI, leave 7 in the bag and set up my S to score. there's hella vowels out, so i dont need to worry too much. #strategysaddest also #knowledgesad for challenge
wow didn't consider L1 JAWL(I)NE! it's nice to not open the O column. I think I prefer it by a bit, setting up the scoring spot is okay as well with my lead. #visionsmall
the insane thing is that i still have a 96% chance of winning after this. what i really need to do is find L2 NEUROmA #findingsad or play 8M (N)AN to open up space and keep the U for the Q. #strategysad
should not go out. -15 to just dropping the blank G at J10. Funny because I set myself up to do a better-than-optimal endgame with KAE. #endgameSADDEST
this time my play was terrible. i don't care. this is the worst draw ever to EIN?. i was trying to make it slightly harder for him to hit the triple but i may have also made it slightly easier. what a disaster of a draw this was, it nearly seals the game, but i deserve it for the bad play earlier on. -AIII sims best; i almost did that. -3 #strategysmall
Figured this would be a controversial move, but while I accept it's a mistake and I certainly got burned to the maximum possible extent, I had logic behind it, as I expressed on the stream; if Alec didn't have a bingo, I expected he might be more apt to open something than the Gibsons of the world. #strategylarge
I probably missed the spot for QUIRTED here. Actually I think I chickened out? Though UUUU? is out, still probably worth it? It's hard for him to fish for a big QU play, especially if I could just draw a U. #findinglarge
I had no idea of what to do here. Quackle likes G9 GOD, fishing and setting up another lane. The pool is awful, which makes playing few tiles better than playing many. #tacticsmedium
i don't know if this is an overreaction. do i just play Z(A)G? GADJE sacrifices a lot of points but gets rid of some ugliness. CDEJT doesn't strike me as an appetizing leave. i suppose if i draw another E i can get JETTED for a few points, or DEJECT, etc. i hate this and should have exchanged on my first move. quackle thinks the sacrifice from GADJE is not worth it as i only get slightly more points next turn with GADJE than ZAG, but i'm sacrificing 13 pts now. makes sense that this is such a big equity loss. -10.5 #strategylarge
once again OI is a pretty nice play to set up a lane, now especially it's pretty justified. Also missed A(B)OIL here. I focused on the B too much and was too intent on keeping the scoring pressure on - don't always need to lower variance!!! hard to expect how much she'll open, so ABOIL seems fine as well. #strategysmall
I have to block K5 FID/FUD. K5 TIL is best, saving C3 SPINY and 14A YINS. I saw that LINDY blocked 6K FUNDI and saved 5K TIPSY, and I didn't notice the high-scoring blocks. (-15) #endgamelarge
It seemed like Ian was consonant heavy, so JEU appeared to be more sound. I somehow average 20 more after AJUGA. I think I played this turn too scared. It's one thing if I average 1 point fewer after JEU. But not when I average 20. Even JUG in the same spot is probably fine to avoid X bombs, but I shouldn't be too concerned with that since there's many ways to play it, and Ian only averages 4 more after JEU vs JUG. #strategymedium
I think it's better to just ditch the Q now and do K1 Q(U)ORUM, which I didn't even spot. It's actually the only way I can even ditch the Q. #visionmedium
A tiny voice in the back of my head said "NONVOCAL takes an S" and I chose to ignore it because, well, it just doesn't seen like NONVOCAL should take an S
spoiler alert: nonvocal takes an S but we both didn't know it
#knowledgesadder
saw VISNOMIE but not FISNOMIE #knowledgesaddest i needed to fish off an I, not blow through the rack but was worried about falling behind #strategysaddest
I did not want to make this play. It's almost certain that Noah has another E here, as otherwise he would have kept his E and played FIST/FAST. Also, there are 8 unseen E's. This means that he's going to be able to access the O column a crushing amount of the time, and I'll be left with row 14 and whatever counterplay his O column play leaves me with, which is peanuts. I basically had to hope here that he just didn't have an E, which meant no A or I last turn either. I considered NIX 11E as well, to keep things open. NIX looks better because I draw COWED 12B which sets up SCOWED. #strategysmall
I totally whiffed the CHORIAMBI hook. I don't think I would have been confident of that. J1 GIRO, J1 TIRO, and J2 IOTA are all better. #knowledgesad and also #knowledgesad for the challenge
phony! I saw AWL/JARL, not PALEAE, and I think I considered EEW. this isn't even a great play if it's good! EEW sims best. #tacticssmall #knowledgesmall
14B HIREE is best here according to sim. I just didn't want to give eric free points for overlaps, especially with such a dead board. I think I correctly deduced that playing QI (for equity) is wrong because it murders the board and leaves me in a 30-point hole that will be impossible to climb out of. #tacticssad
I think I briefly thought the E in BIVALENT was an I (lmao) and didn't play L12 WAUR. Seems pretty lost regardless, not sure what I'm supposed to do. I thought If I drew XZ and some vowels I might have a chance. #strategysaddest
C: i think i lost it here. this is how to do well at nationals; find the winning play. i cashed in my D too early. i can have that spot later (if he blocks it i have AD/DAH too). i need to play at N13 so that he can't play there!! i was low on time, only about 3 minutes, but i didn't do a good enough job here :( -- the winning play is N13 REI #endgamelarge (it's a small error point-wise, but it loses the game)
A: Actually, REI loses by 2 after I play E4 RAH. (-6)
I saw 8K HANAP but figured the two plays would be less than 5 points of valuation apart, and my odds of getting a challenge were pretty high. Instead, the plays are actually closer to 10 points of valuation apart, especially because I bingo from either the V of VODKA or P of HANAP a lot for a very good score next turn. Basically, I wanted to be able to say "I played SHWANPAN" instead of making the correct play. #strategysmall #egolarge 18:10
This gives back a cool 10. #endgamesadder
Sokol: this is my analysis of what should happen after (F)UN for 6. tl;dr the play, all things considered, probably wins 50/50, due to inference. My calculations come to a cynical result of 216/360, inferring that Josh will always block correctly when I can only hit one area. Optimism gives me closer to 2/3 when he blocks the wrong spot.
CE loses
CO wins 16/360
GE dead with O in bag, K in bag, 1/2 C in bag, L in bag, S in bag, probably dead with E in bag, so 5/16*2/45 so 5/360
GO dead with E in bag, L in bag and K in bag, 8/360
EE loses
KO loses
KE loses
KG loses with E in bag, O in bag, 4/360
KL wins 8/360
KS wins 16/360
CG wins 8/360
CL wins 8/360
CS wins 16/360
GS wins 16/360
LS wins 16/360
ES wins 32/360
OS wins 32/360
EO loses
OO loses
SS wins 8/360
EL wins 16/360
LO wins 16/360
GL wins 6/360
CK probably loses
If I play 11B B(AN)GED, I can't leave O or L in the bag (provided Ben plays N2 WAX(IER)). After WAXIER, B(AN)GED still has a 60% shot. BUT even after drawing the L or O, B(AN)GED loses to perfect play. Ben has one move (from his POV) that wins 100% of the time: 11I UNRID because it goes out with every draw from the bag. So blocking doesn't work here.
If I assume Ben sees:
-11I UNRID but not INSURED (or doesn't see either), 11B B(AN)G or V(AN)G are probably OK since UNRID only works because it guarantees an out for him next turn and CDEVN is pretty good for the bag (by playing 2 instead of 4, I might get first-mover advantage in the endgame). Buuuut OBANG is a thing and it doesn't look entirely blockable. So my opponent would have to assume I'm setting up an O that I don't actually have (and a 2/5 shot is not incredible). My opponent is probably forced to find INSURED then.
-INSURED but not UNRID, then B(AN)GED might be OK? It would still lose to something like 11I SURED, but would win as long as he draws the U if he plays UNRED/URNED/RUNED.
-both INSURED *and* UNRID, then V(A)C maximizes my chances of drawing a bingo (there's 6/10 draws that work, which is the same shot as B(AN)GED as long as WAX(IER) is played). BUT, Ben's likely playing 11G INSURED for 72, so BONDAGE and BANDAGE (70) tie; BUNGLED, BLUNGED and BANGLED (69) lose by 1; and DOGBANE loses by 2.
Instead, if I play 2G B(A)NG keeping CDEV, I can sometimes draw into 11F COUVADE and 11G ALCOVED (or B5 ALCOVED and B5 COUVADE depending on where he plays).
V(A)NG draws into BECLOUD or CODABLE, but BECLOUD only fits on the B column and CODABLE goes in both spots, so Ben might play INSURED on the B column to block BECLOUD if I draw it.
The funny thing is, after B(A)NG, Ben might realize that I want him to bingo. If he surmises that I'm keeping at least three consonants after B(A)NG, he can just play 6 tiles (almost guaranteed to give him an out). Against the range of partial leaves CVD, CVL, CDL, and VDL, Ben's best play is (AN)EURINS, which (I think) wins 100% if he doesn't draw the V.
Soooo, after all that, B(A)NG might just be my best bet. Gonna put this one down as #strategysaddest
eep I saw FUMULI and FAMULI but just wasn't sure at all the difference is smaller on this board than usual but it's still clearly better to play fumuli (I average more next turn after cumuli) #knowledgesmall
I hallucinated A1 I(D)OLATOR even though I tracked correctly and made what I thought was a 400 IQ block when there's actually no triple-triple available in the pool and I sacked a bunch of equity. I'm fairly sure this never loses though. #strategysaddest
This is one way to force the board open against him. He's not going to suspect that I am keeping an S. However, this was not a good time to make this specific play because I saw H7 G(A)RISHLY and talked myself out of it. #knowledgelarge
I know Bernie's game well enough that he's gonna just take the TWS as soon as I open one up, which won't help him at his deficit. Still should do 7D DUO for 3 more. #strategysmall
-7 it's not really the triple triple fear, but FS is not a great leave and i'm giving him some more letters to bingo through, C and R and keeping the E open. i wanted to obviously block the 2-2 lane, but something like 5K FORB is effective because if he bingos i have a good chance at a high scoring comeback at O1. #strategymedium
chickened out of 2B WH(I)FT #knowledgesad also i picked 15A WHI(T) over 1A WHI(D) because i figured the T was easier to trip-trip through but i should just go for the points #strategysadder
At this point I think I have the board under control because she didn't put the E on HAWS, so I burnt the R so sevens didn't fit on the board. Big mistake. There are a bunch of vowels left and I'm not even up by that much. #strategymedium