Drawing OOO killed any chance I had of winning this game. C2 APO has the best valuation; it blocks Carl's next play, and the pool is consonant-heavy, so I don't have to worry about keeping five vowels on my rack. #tacticslarge
Gotta try and learn something here. I'm making too many wild moves when it's just not necessary; 11C AZO scores better and doesn't get crushed in response so often. I thought maybe Noel wouldn't know ZUPAN, but it's just too risky a gamble. #strategylarge 13:15
I had no time and was afraid that a bingo after 3A CONFITS would lose me the game. I figured it was unlikely that he could end a bingo with an A at 3A. I did not realize I was up by enough that only a 3x3 would lose me the game. #TIMESADDEST
i thought i had made a huge mistake here not playing A11 LINGA but quackle still likes 1A CAL best. maybe i did make the best play. shrug. +3 #strategybest
M6 NE(T)ES or 5A SEEN would be exponentially better than weird desperation out-play (especially when it has a valid, playable anagram) #endgamesaddest #timesaddest
My play allows plays down column M to potentially block both PYOTS and column N. I'm very much preferring 13A COPSY now for some more points and to create multiple lines in different quadrants of the board. #tacticsmedium 8:34 (guess I played this move fast)
8K (T)OZIE is best. This ties because he can play M7 D(E)NI threatening to go out with E1 (Y)ODE if I play B4 ZO, though he had very little time remaining and finding that sequence would have been difficult. #endgamesaddest
JOBS is much better equity, but the S seemed really important to keep for the EQUINES hook. Also, the N at O1 is much harder to use than an S for 8s. Even adding +45 to each play (to account for the 43-point head start I have), Quackle strongly prefers JOBS, which I find fairly surprising. #strategysmall?
i fish way too much in general. i think i should play EYE here. at B5 it might give up a lot of pts, but if he bingos i might get a big play back, and he seemed like he was going to bingo again. -2.5 #tacticssmall
I was low on time and forgot to track the blank in BIOTITE. I gave up an played line with seconds left. Only 14A LINIE(R), 14A INLIE(R), and 12F (T)I(R)E win. #TIMESADDEST
12H (M)aLEaTES is probably worth the 16 more. Saw plays at I1 but didn't want to hang anything in the triple, especially against this opponent. #visionmedium
i spent a very long time on this move before finally deciding to give up and try to cut spread. 14I OY is the obvious equity play here, and much of the time it's just met with another big comeback. i was up around 1000 spread and 3 games on the rest of the field, so the only way to lose the tournament is to lose 3 games by a combined 500 spread points. now that it looks like i'm going to get blown out here, i wanted to try to stem the bleeding and keep scoring tiles. #strategysmall
i blocked my own DIASTOLE. OPINIONED is nice, i wish i'd thought of it. i did think of the hook earlier on. it seems like he is going to block much of the time if i do that. #tacticslarge
this is likely wrong. a good player like Joey would be setting up a heavy tile to hit the spot at 10F after my inevitable bingo. i should dump the R there. I considered it but thought he might just be keeping low tiles himself and trying to race me to the bingo, and then OR would be easy for him to bingo to since it has so many hooks, etc. hard choice. i also considered abort for a while. -1.5 #strategysmall
Definitely wasn't sure how to feel about WO in the same spot as I didn't love EILNR on this board. Maybe WON is a little better for the leave, but there's still 4 Ss left and I don't give up an S hook with WORN over WON. WO is a reasonable play because Robin will want to score thru the V in VETOED some of the time which could open up a bingo line for me. I did not spot D8 WOL(V)ER which would have given me a nice fork and scored a couple more. #strategymedium
It's a strong D setup and S setup in 1 move, but not exactly worth the 15 point sacrifice. I didn't see D4 DEFU(Z)E, which looks quite a bit stronger. #findingmedium
N5 DUELLI is beautiful. DILUTE isn't that great. it actually slightly raises his bingo percentage, even though i'm trying to block an easy 7 lane. -3 #findingmedium #knowledgemedium #strategymedium
If I play 11B B(AN)GED, I can't leave O or L in the bag (provided Ben plays N2 WAX(IER)). After WAXIER, B(AN)GED still has a 60% shot. BUT even after drawing the L or O, B(AN)GED loses to perfect play. Ben has one move (from his POV) that wins 100% of the time: 11I UNRID because it goes out with every draw from the bag. So blocking doesn't work here.
If I assume Ben sees:
-11I UNRID but not INSURED (or doesn't see either), 11B B(AN)G or V(AN)G are probably OK since UNRID only works because it guarantees an out for him next turn and CDEVN is pretty good for the bag (by playing 2 instead of 4, I might get first-mover advantage in the endgame). Buuuut OBANG is a thing and it doesn't look entirely blockable. So my opponent would have to assume I'm setting up an O that I don't actually have (and a 2/5 shot is not incredible). My opponent is probably forced to find INSURED then.
-INSURED but not UNRID, then B(AN)GED might be OK? It would still lose to something like 11I SURED, but would win as long as he draws the U if he plays UNRED/URNED/RUNED.
-both INSURED *and* UNRID, then V(A)C maximizes my chances of drawing a bingo (there's 6/10 draws that work, which is the same shot as B(AN)GED as long as WAX(IER) is played). BUT, Ben's likely playing 11G INSURED for 72, so BONDAGE and BANDAGE (70) tie; BUNGLED, BLUNGED and BANGLED (69) lose by 1; and DOGBANE loses by 2.
Instead, if I play 2G B(A)NG keeping CDEV, I can sometimes draw into 11F COUVADE and 11G ALCOVED (or B5 ALCOVED and B5 COUVADE depending on where he plays).
V(A)NG draws into BECLOUD or CODABLE, but BECLOUD only fits on the B column and CODABLE goes in both spots, so Ben might play INSURED on the B column to block BECLOUD if I draw it.
The funny thing is, after B(A)NG, Ben might realize that I want him to bingo. If he surmises that I'm keeping at least three consonants after B(A)NG, he can just play 6 tiles (almost guaranteed to give him an out). Against the range of partial leaves CVD, CVL, CDL, and VDL, Ben's best play is (AN)EURINS, which (I think) wins 100% if he doesn't draw the V.
Soooo, after all that, B(A)NG might just be my best bet. Gonna put this one down as #strategysaddest
B2 POR(G)Y is nice. I'm committing to catching up without a bingo after SAYER. 3H OY and 3H AY are nice for fishy plays because they're tough to block + I have the floating T, O and N. #knowledgesad
don't have my racks from hereon out. I think I saw most of the candidate plays and felt lucky about hitting the I in GUILT. This is bad. I think I soon regretted this fishing expedition. This is my best guess about my rack given what I wrote down on my scoresheet (EGLMNOR and EGILMNOR) #strategysaddest
The standout play that was missed here was G7 F(R)EAK. It's good that I held onto my T for JURAT plays, but FEAR was just not a good play. #visionlarge
This sims best but I'm not sure it's correct. I might need to make some drastic opening at this point because the sun is rapidly setting on this game. #strategysadder
J8 A(G)IO and J8 A(G)A are slightly better because they both take an S unlike J8 A(G)O and AGA has the added benefit of taking an R that I already have #strategysad
Quackle strongly favors 5E ONO, which sets up -ROWS plays at H1 while an E draw gives O8 RESOW and H10 MOWERS and an A draw gives H10 MOWRAS#. #tacticsmedium
There's really not a whole lot worth keeping on this board. I need a blank desperately and K4 WATTTAG(E) gives me the best shot at drawing one or the last R for LITHER. #findingsmall
This was astounding bad. The idea is wrong and the execution is wrong. I just need to score with O8 FEH, but if I'm doing a block like this I need to do 9L (E)F to prevent ISH bingos. I completely panicked about the AND/DEL opening and played terribly. #strategysaddest
I played too scared here. I thought my opponent was fishing but the bag is too crappy. It's more likely that he's bogged down with consonants and there's nothing he can do. I need to play O1 PONT or O1 SOAP and outrun. My play literally set up a lovely little X hotspot for my opponent to outrun me with. Genuinely, I could not have made a stupider move. Even passing is better. This is a time where knowing E4 PANTOS would have come in handy. #knowledgesaddest #strategylarge
This isn't bad. But at nationals, a good move isn't exactly good enough. L8 (C)APFUL was missed for 4 more and sets up my S so well. For only 4 less points, CAPFUL is absolutely worth it and would have created a more favorable board for me. #visionmedium
wow, missing stuff left and right this game. E3 OAF would be enough, but I somehow missed A1 OF as well... this looked pretty ugly and I needed to keep looking, but he was playing the fast game again since I took forever in the opening. #findinglarge
This was my second-worst mistake of the tournament. I saw multiple winning plays, including C1 RAT, which is tied for best. I was devastated when I noticed my phony. My thought process was something like this:
[on Dennis's turn] I see C1 RAT, that scores 19. Oh, I see 7F TAR making T(OHO)#, that scores 20.
[Dennis plays MOYL#] ok, Dennis keeps EST, where does that go? Oh, does STERNING# take the S? L3 EST would score 27. I should block. M2 INTRA# for 13 looks like my best block. [I set INTRA on board] Where else does EST go? Oh, he has 3A S(I)TE making S(HOVING), that scores 24. [I put tiles back on rack] [after calculation] INTRA wins by 1 after SITE ... RAT blocks, but it ties after EST, and I am unwilling to challenge ... TAR outruns EST by 1 point and SITE by 4 points, so if STERNINGS is phony, TAR is theoretically better than INTRA.
[I play TAR and hit clock] Oh no, I just played RAB*. #endgamelarge (-35)
i think i actually have to exchange all of them. there's a lot of Es unseen already and Ss and blanks and other good tiles to go for. -0.5 #tacticssmall
I intentionally did not go out with 13C sENN(IT) knowing he had 3 seconds left on his clock and was going to lose 10 points accordingly. D8 N(AB)Es would have been better than my move to prevent his highest scoring out play. #endgamesmall
The Duck says K9 (PO)ND, I have no idea why. I thought I had to try and go out in two, I don't know what POND does. Anyway, #strategylarge or something.
K5 B(OR)D is best. I need to block the 5K OCa -> 4I LOBS sequence and just playing K4 D(OOR)/B(OOR) just gives back 4H BOL(D)S/4H BLO(B)S. #endgamesaddest
Generated a lot of options here. For some reason I seemed to be reluctant to just play OXIDE. Sim likes 11B OH, but I don't, since it blocks UTS and incentivizes Kenji to block SOH at all costs, leaving me with much more difficult lanes to hit. I didn't generate 9H TALLYHO which looks stronger than DO solely on the basis of the RIDES leave hitting so much more than HIRES. Also thought of N10 HORDE, 14B DEHORS, and a few other things. Ultimately OXIDE is just too many more points not to play, but the idea of making more S hooks that can't ever really be usefully addressed was very appealing. #strategymedium
poor endgame. i wan't totally sure on FLOCS so didn't want to play it first. #endgamelarge #knowledgelarge. i bled a lot of spread this tourney and it may have made some difference for the cash prizes.
This is really weak. I need to get rid of more vowels. I was thinking this would force his bings to open up so I could bingo through the floaters. I can't see anything I really like, so suggestions are welcome. #strategymedium
Also considered C3 OUTRAVE, which looks better in retrospect to avoid keeping UV and blocking the easy QIS lane; but didn't consider the likely best move of F6 VAUNTY. Not too hard a play to generate. #findingmedium
Really tough spot here. FUME F10 was my first instinct, and then I deferred from that thinking about the board long-term, etc. MIME H12 scored the most and set up a lane for later, but I think I overreacted here by trying to keep the bottom untouched. #strategysmall