ahhh CONVENTED! #visionlarge I also kinda regretted playing FUN, it lets him overlap sometimes when he has MNX tiles. The sim is kinda weird cause it has him opening a lot after FUN, but realistically I think I should play (E)NUF to be more defensive. CO(N)N is super defensive but also blows up my rack. #tacticssmall for ENUF.
noooo just play B(O)W. i think i wanted him to waste some equity but why not try to bingo again. i'm trying to consciously fish a little less but blowing up INRST with a nice G to bingo through is just silly. -6.5 #strategymedium
In a do-over, I might go with YOGA instead of YAGER for only 4 less. Considering I average 9 more next turn at a 4 point sacrifice this turn and my bingo % goes up after YOGA, it seems that YOGA is a little better. #strategysmall
I did look for plays that would block Row 14 and the I in MANWISE nicely, but I just couldn't come across 14F CONGE. That's what I needed to do at this score. #findingmedium
I don't think I was mentally present during this game because so far I've 1) EXCHANGED MY S and 2) fished OO for 4 (not even 8!)
Also 11E COO(R)IES #VISIONSADDEST #FINDINGSADDEST and #knowledgesad for the challenge
I didn't love anything here out of all plays I saw- this, D12 D(R)AM for 20, J10 AM(I)D, and G1 DAM came to mind. I liked taking out the S hook for GESTAPOS with this, but the sim thinks it's too big a point sacrifice when I won't be up by much. I think DAM is a better play than DOLMA if I'm going to miss 11H MAT(E)D, which does beat out all those plays in the sim and on static equity. #visionmedium
DUFF is actually a little bit better. frank played FIR rapidly and confidently. he probably has a good leave. i didn't want it to be too easy to bingo, i guess, but FEUD doesn't really block anything. -2.5 #tacticssmall
OK, even less excuse now with some time to think about it, and another turn for him to draw something there - I gotta do something like M9 MAGIAN to block that area. I think I thought that after he gets 80 there, I bingo for hopefully a comparable amount and still have tempo on a crummy board. But why wouldn't I try to stop the 80? FLEXOR and MATH would have been ok plays otherwise, but...come on. I will say that of all my turns at Nationals this year, this one was most tilting, because I saw all 4 of my playable CSW bingos here, and got agitated that I somehow didn't have a single TWL one...stopping myself from those kinds of reactions might be a bigger challenge than actually keeping the words straight. #strategylarge
Q likes FEW way more, really? I can see EEFW being not that good on this board, but it's still not awful. it's saying straight up that I average 2.5 more after FEW and also keep a better leave next turn... I feel like the 2 row after FEW is a more dangerous threat than the O and C after OUCH, although the sim has the immediate bingo % as identical (but mose of the 2 row bingoes will also play on row 7, but later on row 7 will get blocked). However, I think row 2 is easier to block than the marginal OC lanes. Not sure exactly how marginal they are tho, this may not even be a big enough threat to give any weight to. Seems like #tacticssmall but it still doesn't make sense to me that CEOU does so much better
i don't think i'm that far off from being right. he's about to bingo again, and if he doesn't hit the H i can maybe get some big points back. maybe J7 R(E)X would block his bingo, but idk. #strategymedium?
totally lost my mind here and thought I could block her bingo. Turns out she was holding the nuts. Well, actually, quite the opposite of the nuts. #strategylarge
I'll give myself a #knowledgelarge for challenging the valid 4 even though it only ended up costing me 5 points; it could've been much, much worse to have chickened out of a valid bingo on row 10.10:55
Quackle likes 11I OMEN a lot, blocking columns J-L and, to some extent, M. I wanted to keep my N for E4 INFLUXES, and ATOM is the best equity play, but blocking the board is of greater importance. #tacticssmall
It's a nice enough pool to the point where O7 LORANS, TOLANS, or even ROTLS sim much better than this lame fish. I'm just not too happy at this point, but I needed to just cut spread instead of passing those plays up. #strategylarge
EVET sims worse than obvious moves like 1F KEF but I like that it reduces Tim's average score by about 5 points and eliminates that nightmare huge 4x scenario. Still probably a #strategymedium.
i think ORB doesn't necessarily imply an incredibly strong leave, but let's give him IRS; quackle still prefers 4D RATHE. i don't know what i was thinking. there are two open lanes, and i have a bigger comeback if i let him bingo on lane 14 a lot of the time. i can't block them both, so force him to bingo there. -11.5 #strategylarge it's a new day and i'm back to my bad play.
4J JUM(P)ED is probably fine here. I shouldn't be too worried about triple-triples after a 5 tile play. It also blocks bingos making EDS. #strategysmall
This game is going to be interesting. Too bad I missed a key option here, E5 LAY(O)UTS, so perhaps things would have been different if I had seen that. I liked this over (G)UY because the leave was less bingo-dependent and slightly less variant. I probably missed LAY(O)UTS because I spent the first minute or so of my time lamenting that SALUTORY* was the word I think Nigel Peltier played against Conrad at 2014 Nationals which Conrad accepted. #findingsmall
Really confusing turn. Basically after EA I wanted whatever my play was here to limit the damage from AXE hooks. Sadly, I saw 10H NEAT and I guess didn't fully appreciate how effectively it accomplishes that task while keeping my vowel. #tacticsmedium
Played this WOK thinking I keep the E for EWE but there are more front hooks to WE if I play the other WOK, but I realized after I hit my clock I should've probably played the other one because of JEW and other hard-hitting overlaps there. #strategysmall
This play was quite sloppy. I didn't see 2J I(N)GLE which undoubles both my E and I. Even 6G GIE is fine if I don't spot INGLE. Did I FORGET how to play Scrabble for a turn? #findingmedium
i spent a little while doing math on this move. 2 of the 43 unseen tiles are Z and J, so the chance he drew at least one of them is 1 - (41/43)*(40/42)*(39/41)*(38/40)*(37/39)*(36/38)*(35/37) or about 30%. First of all, is that actually right? And second, i estimated it as roughly 25% - which is not quite right, but i figured it was close enough. I should figure out a better way to do this kind of math. either way, it is probably for naught because the best play is either NOOGIE or GOOIER, sacrificing 8 pts but keeping a more workable leave, and not opening up as huge of a hotspot. -1.5 #tacticssmall
It's been that kind of day for me. I was so on tilt that I picked one of a few tiles that would not allow me to bingo that I end up misspelling a word. I meant to play VEINER at 12A. Luckily, neither one of us would catch this careless mistake until it was far too late. Also, VERITE or VENIRE both play at 12D which I failed to spot. #visionmedium
2J BLE(A)T is 17 fewer points but reduces the opponent's next turn score by about 6 and increases my next turn score by about 13, apparently. This makes it sim about 2 points better. #strategysad
ok you know what? im still baffled that this is not a common english word. i dont even feel like this should be a #knowledgesaddest because clearly this is just a twilight zone moment
veratrin takes an E as well as an S. but that's a tiny number of the unseen tiles. maybe just take the points? would you? i suppose if i'm playing someone better i should try to make it a bit more volatile. -2 #strategysmall
K3 AXE is better defensively than AMEBAE and scores 4 more. so it's better, even though AMEBAE scores a little more on avg next turn. -6.5 #strategymedium i don't understand scrabble.
none of this crap would hae happened without retracer. quackle likes 7C TEPEE a lot more, or 7B ETAPE, etc. i think with all the Us out i might be able to score more next turn. -10 #strategylarge
I wanted to create bingo lanes rather than blocking them, but A(H)ULL sacrifices too much equity. G13 LUD is best; it has best equity and removes a scoring hotspot, at the expense of blocking row 15. #strategymedium
13K PILCH# is better, saving at least 1A AY and reducing Jack's scoring potential, even though I can't always go out next move. HIPLY often allows plays like O11 PH(Y)LA or PH(Y)LE. #endgamesmall
Saw the cheap ANOLYTE for 64 , but didn't see bAYONET for what would have been 89 points. gEO(BO(TANY scores a ton of style points. #knowledge #blankbingos
I unfortunatly rushed this play because I realized this was better than anything else I had before Dan played MODISH. But the fact is, 11E T(R)ENChED or C(R)ENaTED are better regardless of what Dan played prior. #visionmedium
Sucks that O2 POL(Y)ENiC got blocked as well as the flashier but lower scoring N1 PENO(N)CeL. The P isn't that great on this board, therefore B2 CLOP would have been fine. #strategymedium
such an insane bingo available here. Can you find it? This is probably worse than MAY L11 because although I block myself with MAY, I also give him a lot less to work with, and I have the blank, so I don't really need to leave everything open. #tacticssmall #findingmedium #knowledgemedium
i did see 2F JEE, but didn't like that i don't have one of the A's to front-hook it. i don't like it that much, idk. i think i would still do JIG any day unless someone convinces me otherwise. -4 #tacticssmall (if anything)
Just flat out missed CORTEGE, which doesn't take the zillion hooks CONGREE does - I actually forgot about the D hook and hoped perhaps I would be likelier to remember the T hook than Benjy. #findingsmall #knowledgesmall
I intentionally did not go out with 13C sENN(IT) knowing he had 3 seconds left on his clock and was going to lose 10 points accordingly. D8 N(AB)Es would have been better than my move to prevent his highest scoring out play. #endgamesmall
Quackle ranks the 2x2's: 1) 5E sOREDIAL#, 2) K4 mODIOLAR#, 3) 5E fORELAID#, 4) K5 tOROIDAL. I decided to play through the O to prevent any 2x2's in response, but 2x2's on row 11 probably should be less of a concern than the scoring spots that my bingo creates. mODIOLAR or tOROIDAL sets up the J and Z at J10 or J6 respectively, while sOREDIAL or fORELAID sets up the X at 6F (fORELAID also sets up the X at 6J). Because the spot under sOREDIAL is hardest to hit---requiring the X and either I or O---it makes sense for sOREDIAL to be best. Though I still don't understand why mODIOLAR should be better than tOROIDAL. #tacticssmall