The pool is consonant-heavy, so I can afford to keep three vowels. LO(I)N blocks row 12, but K12 NO(E)S or ON(E)S is better execution, blocking row 11 as well. ON(E)S wins a close sim, followed by 9N ON (?) #visionmedium
I spent all my time trying to make some Z setup, but it doesn't seem like there's anything that's unblockable, so I played this hoping for opp plays off OSS -> H2 I(D) -> pass -> 1F ZIG. #strategysadder
I had the right idea if I wanted to go here, but it should be UDOS in this spot with the K on the board already. But even better is setting up another S hook with H5 DO(ZEN)! #visionlarge
could also do PAH for one point less to further restrict overrlaps. I retain the only two letters in the pool that can overlap PA. Furthermore, he can set up D(RAG) or B(RAG) after either play with R(AG) for 4, but I can draw an E to block with TE(PA) after PAH and it is much trickier to block after HAP. B(ROO) is the lurking threat here, he could just bingo there at any time, but making another spot with R(AG) might just be his key to victory in some lines. #tacticssmall
D1 CHAtEAU and D1 CHApEAU. Not me looking for a V to play VAUCH, not spotting it in AVIATOR, and missing every bingo ever while i was at it, too #knowledgesaddest
So many lanes, so much potential! I spent more than 5 minutes looking for bingos and didn't see one. After the game, I gave the rack to Alec and he found the only bingo in about 30 seconds. Dude is *sharp*. Also, LENO 1A is better than any other play by far. I must have gotten flustered after wasting all my time failing to find the bingo that I didn't take more time to find the right non-bingo play. (-30) #visionlarge, #strategylarge, #timemanagementlarge
i didn't see ANNUL, i did see ANN but didn't like keeping a U -- but even ANN sims a lot better than BLUNT. i think ANNUL/ANN are nice because of the defense, BLUNT gives up more pts. -8 #strategylarge
Drat. Still not rock solid on finding the 30k-40k probability 8s like UNFIXITY, which plays at A8 for 89. I'd have had a shot of seeing it if the X had been a natural tile as opposed to the blank designation. #findinglarge
tried to calculate everything here, it appeared that I couldn't necessarily outrun (C)OWBELLS/BELLOWS 15G with (OY)E(R) H13. In effect, my time-troubled calculation was actually correct. If he has BELLOSW, OY(E)R is only a 4/5 win. Since I didn't know if that was the only loss after (OY)E(R) and OYER was really bad on spread, I decided to go for the obvious play here. It blocks all of the J bingos that I didn't calculate, though they probably all lose to OYER because they use up all the remaining vowels. The problem is that GIRO is only a 50% win if Matt has BELLOWS, and is very likely to lose to BECLOWN (4/5), by far the biggest threat in the position. GIRO also loses 4/5 to WEBCAST. GIRO appears to beat everything else. OYER might be better than GIRO. Upon further analysis, (OY)E(R) is probably best, though I haven't looked through all the fishes Matt could make thereafter. I am a bit upset that I didn't play it. #strategylarge
W: I need to do KITE and get lucky; I felt there was a chance of outscoring after SICKED, but I still have that chance after KITE and I get way more bingos down. #strategymedium
And just when Jeremy Hall missed S(A)VIOURS with this exact rack in our game, I would go on to do the same thing! And I did not know G7 V(O)USSOIR. #findinglarge
I missed an opportunity here--8L FIG sets up the S at O8, and it can be blocked only with the remaining A. Quackle prefers GIF for some reason? #tacticsmedium
This is the best equity play, but I was sad about partially blocking RHUMBA. In fact I should have sacrificed two points to preserve RHUMBA with 9E EME. #tacticsmedium
NC: Exch. NOQ I'm a dumbass. I saw the floating G and I thought "I don't need the G" but I can play 5F bingos ending in ING by keeping it #STRATEGYMEDIUM #VISIONSADDER
This is one way to force the board open against him. He's not going to suspect that I am keeping an S. However, this was not a good time to make this specific play because I saw H7 G(A)RISHLY and talked myself out of it. #knowledgelarge
4A BRAV(u)RA was missed. #findinglarge
Quackle likes 6D R(E)B. Not sure what to make of that other than there are no scoring spots on this board for Fern so I can leave myself with my case N for D4? I don't buy it.
I did not see that 14B TREATE(D) fits! If I had played 14F FE(D) to block that, Chris can play an out-in-2 very easily, but I'll be able to play HEY in 2 spots at both F2 and K10 after his next play. #endgamemedium
i didn't think making dinky two-tile plays was gonna get me very far here (10F FA). i wanted to at least semi-block a lame lane (the L column). i didn't spot 2L O(V)UM which i like quite a bit. i also didn't spot 10I FOUL. that's better than FOAM for sure. i think i didn't look there too hard because it wasn't a double word score? lame. -4.5 #visionmedium
I think I missed 3B NA(I)F. That seems good here as well, since I am not sure of SEPTORIAS, so a lot of the value of OF decreases if I choose not to play SEPTORIAS. #knowledgesmall
this also seemed very wrong. It performs OK in a sim, but the sim does not comprehend Jackson's defensive responses that don't allow re-overlaps on the C column. I really have to throw out rack balance for a turn here and make a weird-looking play like B(A)TE G6o r just OB(E) 6F. #tacticssmall
was happy to draw the last remaining Ss and to see him play BIKE and block most of the ?AT setups. I might want to play wyn/by here. looks close. EGSS at least takes out the 7 conso rack danger. I should probably do that. I wanted to keep both Ss to hit SCURVY as a scoring play, hence not WYTES. however there is something to be said for playing the S to avoid the 7 consos. I think WYN is the play #strategysmall
The most important line for me to be able to hit is the NAPERIES/JAPERIES hook on Row 1. I don't mind a move like this with 4 Ns left, but 13H (I)NCU(D)AL keeps the entire top open nicely. #visionmedium
i spent a long time on this move and then made a bad play. i should play CURIE 10K here, i considered it and it is aggressive, and good, i have the case S. it might be slightly worse because he is consonant heavy. i strongly considered 9C UNTIE as well, and saw that the bag was consonant heavy (11 vowels and 16 consonants unseen). i knew he probably had like 4-5 of the consonants at least based on his last few plays, so that may even out the bag a little bit, but still, UTE seemed to bingo a lot. my problem is that the bag still has a lot of ugly high point tiles that won't bingo. i was worried that if i played UNTIE or CURIE i would draw 4 consonants and my rack would go to hell. still, i don't know how i spend such a long time on this rack and then make such a lame move. i should be less afraid and play CURIE. there are high scoring tiles to go for like the J, Z, X which i need to outrun him. i even considered DA(CE) for quite a while, which sims almost as well as CURIE. i basically grossly overestimated how much UTE would bingo, and then spent a while trying to justify to myself that i should play it, and then decided it was worth the risk. i was totally wrong. -9.5 #strategylarge
champ and sim likes 7g EVE which is fascinating. I liked guv over the board because it greatly reduces Ben's scoring chances, where he is scoring nothing without an s. the problem is that my average score is also greatly reduced, and my bingo chanced plummet. EVE is best #tacticsmedium
wow - i need to play D4 TEW here instead of 10E WYE; despite the worse leave, i have to kill the low-variance high scoring spot. this is the type of advanced move only a few players know how to make. how to learn. ::thinking emoji:: -3.5 #strategymedium
Sometimes it's not necessarily one move that costs me the game, but I feel like this is where I lost this one by not seeing 15A CULOTTES. That one is gettable and I have no idea how this game would have turned out if I did see it. #findinglarge
I ruled out BONK here. It scores 4 points more but keeps three vowels, which is dreadful. Despite this, BONK is worth considering, because it can be hooked only with an S, whereas BONE takes a variety of hooks that will make it easy for Alec to score, most notably the Y. For these reasons, NEB 9E is better than either BONK/BONE. I don't think I saw NEB. If I did see it, then I might have disregarded it because EKOU is a worse leave than EKU, but failed to notice the positional advantages of NEB. This is the kind of mistake I'm most likely to make. I focus so intently on maximizing my score and keeping a good leave that I don't give enough consideration to what opportunities I offer my opponent. It's a critical leak in my game. (-4) #strategymedium
I completely failed to see any of the -LIKE bingos through the K that were available in the pool until after I made my play. I3 F(O)H is definitely best here for blocking bingos. #findingsaddest
i did see 2F JEE, but didn't like that i don't have one of the A's to front-hook it. i don't like it that much, idk. i think i would still do JIG any day unless someone convinces me otherwise. -4 #tacticssmall (if anything)