No idea what got into me here...I was sure there was some CSW-only variation of BLOTCH. I don't think I was confusing this with BLENCH, so I wonder how I got my wires crossed. #knowledgelarge
just fishing the F with EFF hits 32/75 of the pool! and is very defensive. I put the T on for extra defense, he averages over 5 less than after VEX. I didn't mind the scoring spot VEXT opens cause if he hits it he's likely giving one back to me. Still, 7E EF or (EF)F look better #findingsmall EF vs (EF)F is interesting, the latter is more standard but the former also invites 8a openings which open the board for me, and I average a lot next turn.
had mistracked an L I think, so I didn't know if QUITE was going to give something huge back. It was either that or it was better than QUIET. -2 #endgamesmall
i gotta do 6K J(O)EY to stop T bingos. also, there's a bunch of bingos that still fit after JANTY. J(O)EY keeps the A, and there's enough Es and Os out that i can hit the A12 spot next time. The win % diff between these two plays is like less than half a point and my oppo's bingo pct after JANTY is only 3.59% but it's enough that if a bingo comes down, im toast. #strategysaddest
While this play might have been #visionsolid, I crossed out the wrong letters and had him having ANR left instead of AER. If I had gotten it right, I would have done C4 AVO blocking RAVE knowing he has many outs. Luckily I only lost a couple of spread points because of this.
yeah i considered playing 5H VAT (and chickened out of FRATER for J5 VARS), but played kinda loosey goosey bcuz my opp had just exchanged #strategysaddest
Absolutely and horribly inexcusable. This is invalid and I held for a while, unable to remember if BATWING or WINGBAT* is valid. I remembered that Reid had a history of knowing a lot of words and I know that I don't know anything at all and eventually accept and make the spread-cutting move but WINGBATS* ISN'T A WORD ASDAFSD
Literally when the only way to lose is to accept a word that looks funny to you, you should probably challenge that word. Guhhhhhh. This is one of many, many times where I show absolutely no faith in my word knoweldge this tournament.
#knowledgesaddest #tacticssaddest (idk if I can tag two things but I'll try)
i like this move, but quackle thinks just dropping the H is fine. apparently i bingo close to 89% of the time when i do that! definitely sounds a bit high, since i don't hit bingos with the B or R, and he's going to block some percentage of the time. so i'm not sure. anyway, i didn't see that many possible bingos, and wanted to keep the F for scoring at O4. #strategysmall ?
oh man, gotta get better about finding those parallel plays. 9G ANOINT fits perfectly and is very clearly best. i thought TANTO didn't even take an S. #findingmedium -5
I had a hunch that ARREArED* might be phony, and I saw bingos on 14F. So why didn't I just play DREAREr for only 7 fewer? Quackle strongly prefers fishing off two tiles with O10 EGGER.... #knowledgelarge
ugh this is too difficult. with such a small % chance of winning, i don't know what's right anymore. it seems in these types of situations i have to limit the amount of damage he can do, so something like 4K AY or YA is going to sim best despite keeping a U. the problem with GUY, even though it does play short and keeps a good leave, is that it gives back so many points; i know this but have to hope he can't punish it too much. -3 #strategymedium
big miss, ANNEXES, surprisingly I get a chance to play ANNEXES a little later too.
don't know why I thoughty ADA was good.
#findingSADDEST #knowledgeSADDEST
super low on the clock already. Couldn't stomach this, or HIT B6 (or HI). Sim says J(O)T 9C is an option. I didn't consider that, but did consider J(O) to try and maximize bingo. HIT sims best, so probably best play. #strategysmall
This sims way, way back: I didn't see EH 10A. No one mentioned this in either the commentary or the chat, which vindicates me slightly. SHH must be difficult to spot for everyone. (-12) #visionlarge
I saw enough that FOX allowed REP, but didn't see that he had REM B13 as well. Being in time trouble isn't quite as bad as it seems, though still very costly. I spent most of the time on FIRMS, making sure that it was a solid option. -1 #endgamesmall #timemanagementmedium
wow didn't consider L1 JAWL(I)NE! it's nice to not open the O column. I think I prefer it by a bit, setting up the scoring spot is okay as well with my lead. #visionsmall
such an insane bingo available here. Can you find it? This is probably worse than MAY L11 because although I block myself with MAY, I also give him a lot less to work with, and I have the blank, so I don't really need to leave everything open. #tacticssmall #findingmedium #knowledgemedium
probably a #tacticssmall for 11B PA(R)EO which only raises his avg. by 2 points over this. AEPR is nice though and I'm opening the 11 and 13 lane, so it's a small difference.
Not thrilled to open the double-double but this was by far the most palatable equity move; 7E KEPT was my other option, and Quackle prefers it slightly based on just a bit better defense. #strategysmall 17:51
then I promptly forget about reovirus! I played this to make the position tougher and to keep the S open for me to hit, as I likely have the better rack. this may not actually make his position too hard as he has lucrative hooks with BDFKM. REOVIRUS is a big miss. #visionlarge
While it might normally be OK to block JALOPS plays, it's definitely not OK to miss Column K plays with KLUTZY though. Therefore, maybe K5 PINY or K3 PARITY? #visionbad
this seemed like the right theme to go with, but XYS(T)S (I only considered XYST I think) is just too powerful I think. GNS is a whole lot better than GNSS even taking defense into account. I should want to get rid of these consos a bit more. #findingsmall
This is my first big mistake this game missing the superior 14B A(N)TIPHoN. It is a word that I knew, and although I also saw 13B T(R)ANsHIP, I like the play I made over T(R)ANsHIP with the Z still unseen. #findinglarge
Another interesting call between HEXED, INDEXED, and XI, all of which score essentially the same. Whichever I play, Jackson pretty much has to bingo immediately, since otherwise I can play down through the D in BIND and block everything at once. XI is pretty clearly worse since it blocks nothing and also allows plays like JOINT/BINDI to not empty the bag, which makes it possible that they might outrun me without a bingo (virtually impossible if they empty the bag, as they would after INDEXED or HEXED). As for HEXED vs. INDEXED, it looks like I misevaluated the danger or row 14 after INDEXED. There's really not that many bingos he can have there with that pool, but HEXED gives back stuff like DIVINING, DONATING, DONATION. These bngoes also score more than row 14 bingos do after INDEXED, making me less likely to be able to outrun them. So INDEXED looks like a small improvement. #strategysmall #preendgamesmall
this was probably the most idiotic thing I did at Nationals. I saw that I could probably find a 2x2, but thought that I could just hook AY and score just as much, since the 2x2 was just 6 more points, equivalent to hooking AY! So I just went for the first thing I saw. Unfortunately, math does not work like that. #sad #findingsmall
I did see 9F MIsCITE which I passed up. However, I missed the anagram of COMITIEs- 5D sEMI(O)TIC is 94, but even better positionally is 5D EpIT(O)MIC. #findinglarge
This gives back a cool 10. #endgamesadder
Sokol: this is my analysis of what should happen after (F)UN for 6. tl;dr the play, all things considered, probably wins 50/50, due to inference. My calculations come to a cynical result of 216/360, inferring that Josh will always block correctly when I can only hit one area. Optimism gives me closer to 2/3 when he blocks the wrong spot.
CE loses
CO wins 16/360
GE dead with O in bag, K in bag, 1/2 C in bag, L in bag, S in bag, probably dead with E in bag, so 5/16*2/45 so 5/360
GO dead with E in bag, L in bag and K in bag, 8/360
EE loses
KO loses
KE loses
KG loses with E in bag, O in bag, 4/360
KL wins 8/360
KS wins 16/360
CG wins 8/360
CL wins 8/360
CS wins 16/360
GS wins 16/360
LS wins 16/360
ES wins 32/360
OS wins 32/360
EO loses
OO loses
SS wins 8/360
EL wins 16/360
LO wins 16/360
GL wins 6/360
CK probably loses
after CARD I want to reduce bingos as much as possible, but I don't need to open a 3x3 and try to outrun that way. I can just play M(E)TED and do virtually the same things. This was game-losing. #strategylarge
this was a really interesting spot. I would have played PALPED had I known it to valid. Barring that, tons of options existed. I doubted how important the hooks on LAPPED were in the grand scheme of things, other than their effect on standard deviation from the norm. A1 plays were kind of likely to block that hook. This board was also full of scoring potential, and I didn't like squandering myself at all here with equity values. DAPPL(E) was an option, I thought of APPLED* and doubted it. TAPP(E)D leaving LN seemed ugly. I didn't see LAPP(E)T or APPL(E)T keeping DN. That looks fine as well. #knowledgesmall for PALPED.
this gives back more bings than i thought because o the A hook. didnt think it was all that likely, oop. #strategyMEDIUM i need to find M5 INWOVE and shut it down
D10 ETUI is fine, but this isn't. I was afraid of making another S hook, but at this score I think the equity doesn't justify what I did. #strategymedium also #knowledgesad for the challenge.
none of this crap would hae happened without retracer. quackle likes 7C TEPEE a lot more, or 7B ETAPE, etc. i think with all the Us out i might be able to score more next turn. -10 #strategylarge
i strongly considered C2 BRO, which sims best, but i feel like i should stop screwing around. i'm holding on to a bit of a tenuous lead, both blanks and X are unseen, etc. it seemed good to kill a few lanes here and score and stuff. #strategysmall ?
i can smell that X setup from a mile away, Josh. YACK is the obvious play here, but when you infer an X, 10D DAM goes up to the top. there is a lot more C-K synergy so CAM is not right here. -5.5 #tacticsmedium
D1 hORSIES. I didn't consider putting a letter in the triple would be better. Also, despite being about 8 fewer points than all the other bingos, J4 vIROSES sims second best just barely behind D1 hORSIES. #strategysad
WATERI(S)H got blocked this time, yay. I will admit that I was mesmerized by Eric drawing into a lot of good things after playing longer and should not have tried minting the board with this move for another score on this board with there only being 2 Ns left. F12 HAW or 9G H(A)W score about the same and keep better. Yes, I might protect myself a little better by keeping the W to score again at F14, but the lanes in EMANATED and INTINES probably won't get blocked as often after playing off my H and W as as move like VOG. Threrefore, it would have been fine to keep AEIRT or EIRT to attempt to bingo again. My next draw was disastrous, and Eric probably would have ran away from me regardless if I screw up this turn with how well he drew all game. Maybe this would have been awash, idk. #strategylarge
lots of options here. 2F ILEA, 2H AA, 2G ALA are all nice aggressive plays. They kinda bank on her not having the K, but that's a decent gamble in this position. If I draw the K I get good scores, and she can't score there easily at all. I sorta like ALA best of the three because I also open a lane on the 3 row that I can hit even if she gets a K play, ISATINE and the like. A(J)I is also interesting to go for ELASTAN(E), ELASTAS(E), ALIENAT(E). 26/156 I hit, which is pretty good. I'm inclined to take the other 2 row routes to go for the K, but I'm not sure I win always when I draw the K. I think it realistically is pretty often though, and something like ILEA would be good for that to draw the K the most, but after she blocks the spot I may not draw a good K play at the bottom. Maybe ALA because I can still get YENTA draws at the bottom, bingo draws, K draws and stuff like YIKES. #strategymedium because this play doesn't have a big plan, I don't think I clued into how much trouble I was in. I was more in the mindset that I would necessarily squeak out an endgame, but with big K plays available I can't just make a play like this. same with YEANS, that is findable and could be bad.
This is not correct because 11J ODEON and 11J ODEONS block both outplays of 11J OUTLAW and N5 OUTLAW. I saw the ODEON(S) blocks but couldn't see anything better. B12 LOUT is best. #endgamesaddest
So, I'm a silly little goose who is still learning and growing and yes spoiler alert i phonied twice with invalid threes. because i am a silly little goose who is still learning and growing. please and thank you. #knowledgesaddest