Bingoing now is a massive blunder. I thought I had to bingo from the P to block his bingos from the P but 14M SEI blocks those and saves the G(OLDEN) hook. #strategysaddest
#knowledgesad for challenge and #findingsad for L4 RITZ(Y). I saw (B)IZ but didn't think it would sim SO much better than SITZ. If i wanna play off these tiles, I can get 5 more pts by making OVERBUYS
could not find a play to make here. IMP 8C looks best, and I also missed I6 KIT which is simple. This sucks but at least I have a chance of being able to shut the board down after this, but IMP is just superior #findingsmall
I ran out of time, mistracked, and gave up and just scored, which wins 4/8 with no inference. M6 DIRL(S) wins 5/8 with no inference when he doesn't have a bingo on the O column (if I draw EIRS?) and O3 DIXI wins 5/8 with no inference when he doesn't have a bingo from the V (if I draw AERS?). The evaluation of this endgame with inference is left as an exercise to the reader. #TIMESADDEST #STRATEGYSADDEST
Didn't see SPREDD, which must be better just to shed so much clunk. The left side of the board isn't quite as dire as it looks thanks to ANANA. #findingsmall 16:44
this was a really interesting spot. I would have played PALPED had I known it to valid. Barring that, tons of options existed. I doubted how important the hooks on LAPPED were in the grand scheme of things, other than their effect on standard deviation from the norm. A1 plays were kind of likely to block that hook. This board was also full of scoring potential, and I didn't like squandering myself at all here with equity values. DAPPL(E) was an option, I thought of APPLED* and doubted it. TAPP(E)D leaving LN seemed ugly. I didn't see LAPP(E)T or APPL(E)T keeping DN. That looks fine as well. #knowledgesmall for PALPED.
I felt like I couldn't really play ARIETTE with FWW unseen. The best play is RETE C2, which blocks the 3x3 and clears up the rack nicely. (-4) #visionmedium
I have trouble seeing the word BUNGEE for some reason. It eventually jumps to 3rd in the sim because Quackle recognizes that I do need to pick a WEN hook to hit stuff there. Even 4C NGWEE is fine since there's still 6 Es left to pick. I probably should have taken the 6 more even with getting rid of both Es. #strategymedium
8L (D)HOW is best. I thought DDIV had little scoring potential next turn, but (D)HOW + D10 DIV(A) scores the same amount as WHID + 8L (DI)VO#. #strategysmall
I didn't see the bingoes on Column I- hANGABL(E), GNAwABL(E), and GAiNABL(E) all play. However, not bingoing is actually better with all those 3x3s that those plays give up in a close game. If I'm not going to bingo, which I suppose I had the right idea either way, then O8 ALANG is definitely better. #findingmedium
Fishing for Z plays at 10J in a way that doesn't arouse suspicion. J10 ZA is best, followed by plays using the letters BURD, BUD, BURDS, etc. but suspiciously not at 10J. #tacticsmedium
YUM 7A #findingSAD #strategySADDER. Instead I opened up another possible triple triple (SUNSHADE was there already, and now ENDASHES), just really wanted to get rid of those Us
13B MANIA is a better block. H1 A(C)UMEN is available but I think a bingo ending in QUE is the only way I can lose so I think I have to block. #findingsadder
I just flat-out missed BARYE here. I was also unsure of BARNEY, even though I would have played that in an NWL game. I also just missed BYRE J5. #findingmedium
Quackle remarks that MO 12A improves my bingo chances significantly. The I is useful since not many to redraw and the ING line I made with QUAG. MO is +5 apparently. PEONIS(M), which I also considered, does well too. #strategysmall
this is actually a pretty counterproductive play. I need to admit I am at a disadvantage and play FIB 7K. This gives back too many bingos and scoring plays. I am setting up points on row 8, but also on row 4 with TEFF. Cool play that I should have seen. I saw BE(D)IM, which is also a lot better. #findingmedium #strategymedium
Tough move here. My hope was that reparalleling MIS with ISO would help me open more of the board on subsequent turns, but particularly blocky AMIS hooks like the one Vince played are bad news. Sim actually prefers LIS slightly over MIS on that basis, allowing many fewer points per turn to Vince by allowing fewer hooks and less lucrative plays down the L column. #strategysmall
I did see F6 ZA as well as N4 MAZIER, but there's only 3 Es left which makes Row 11 harder to hit for her and she's random. However, I did not see 4H (JO)R(A)M which would have maximized score over 2 turns and allowed me to outrun some bingoes better. #visionmedium
Everyone hated this play, and so did I. But I couldn't figure out what to do, and MOI actually sims decently. The correct play is probably SINOPIE B8, which I didn't see. It's the highest scoring play, keeps the R, and goes for turnover. Turnover is not usually that important this early, but sometimes there's nothing else to do. (-5) #visionsmall
I can see why L4 PALEO sims a little better than POOL does- I liked my idea of setting up another S hook when I have one, but at the same time, there's still 8 more Es to draw. I think if I wanted to set up another S hook without potentially putting myself at risk of drawing more Es to a leave containing an E, perhaps 11J ALOE is an an improvement here since OPS is a great leave both for bingoing and scoring. #strategysmall
I saw 4K AD(O) and figured N1 AM was better because 2 more points but I probably need that lane. This is, ofc, because I missed all possible bingos #knowledgesaddest #tacticssad
this makes the X really powerful, AXES is like a game winning play. She already really likely has an S on her rack, probably not the X but it's possible she kept it with ZA (with AX I12 I'd assume she didn't have it). NIB only allows AXES, whereas BIN allows both axis and axes. am I in a bad enough position to need to win by getting axis? if that's the case I should play BIN. If I think I can win another way I should make it less likely she gets the play, and should play NIB. I didn't consider BI(T) 6F which is pretty cool - I save HADJI for next turn and don't allow the big X possibility. Can I win if she draws the X and I don't draw the blank? I feel like after BIT the game becomes more about the blank, whereas after BIN it's more about the X and AX?S, but the blank could still allow me to bingo if she got the play. Turnover is important here cause of the value of the blank and X, so maybe I should play QUERYING - still saves BIT and HADJI plays, doesn't give anything back.
I'm inclined to not exchange here, even though it seems like a decent option optimally. I think I can outrun here, and I'd like to be able to outrun even if I don't draw the blank. I feel like QUERYING is good even though the sim hates it - I don't allow AX?S plays, I save HADJI and BIT for future turns, at which point she may have played the I or X. I think I should at least play NIB over BIN, my chance of drawing AXIS is pretty low so I should at least make it harder for her to get it. Other than that I have no idea what to do here. #strategysmall
interesting position, depending how I view his odd placement of BLITE. it could be something weird like a scoring rack where he wants too make two spots, or a K. most likely is probably an X. not really sure. it's hard to justify blocking the X bomb cause my plays there are pretty bad and leave the G column. I could also counter-setup with ZA/BA, which mmight actually be fine anyways. this play was a sort of counter-setup, keeping 12a possibilities and h1 possibilities. Q thinks it's way too big a sacrifice, that I should just play YA. i'll call this a #strategymedium
i can smell that X setup from a mile away, Josh. YACK is the obvious play here, but when you infer an X, 10D DAM goes up to the top. there is a lot more C-K synergy so CAM is not right here. -5.5 #tacticsmedium
Looked for -MEN bingoes, and F1 LIEgEME(N) is the only bingo that plays for 67 which I missed. 3 Es is annoying sometimes. Maybe M9 EME for 22 is a better move than this if I'm gonna miss the bingo? Don't miss hooks. #visionmeh
The 1st 4 turns were all reasonable. Missing 8J ENFACE is just very bad. 2nd significant mistake I've made this game with the other being accepting PLOWN*. From the 2 FAENA placements, I chose this one since doing O8 FAENA allows Sam to score using the N10 spot. Yes, this is better than O8 FAENA. But I'm not using that to rationalize against a play I clearly missed. #findinglarge
7I OUR is also cool, the U isn't super parallelable so it's kind of a board fork. GURU doesn't give much back, and I chose this one for 1 less point because it doens't allow h11 plays. h11 plays aren't so bad for me cause they give more lanes, but they still score better than most other plays on the board. I also like leaving a bit more distance from the E column in case a LEGGY play comes down, partially inhibiting my lanes. although EORS > ERSU, the better board position makes OUR bingo almost as much as GURU. #tacticssmall
I overestimated how big this spot I was setting up was, his average goes waaaay up. making this lane probahbly helps me a bit, I end up bingoing as much after PUB as u fishes like PIU, but yeah PUB just gives him a much bigger spot on a subpar scoring board. PIU or PRAUS seem okay here. I would probably do PIU. #tacticsmedium
This has the best equity, but Quackle overwhelmingly prefers exchanging, keeping only the R--though I am ahead, I am less than 50% to win, so I should preserve the lanes on rows 14 and 15. #tacticsmedium
I put some thought into this and F4 PARLE. PARLE reduces opponent's average score by 9 over this. If scorinig defense were equal, QAI(D) would be the right play. However, I grossly undervalued defense again here. #strategymedium