Sim likes POUF which I wouldn't do, but 6E OAF setting up potential MARID reparallels looks pretty good. I think I saw that but didn't appreciate it fully. #strategysmall
I had about 30 seconds and talked my self out of SMIR. NO TIME. NO KNOWLEDGE OF THE FOURS. NO IDEA HOW TO PLAY SCRIMBOOL. #TIMESADDEST #KNOWLEDGESADDEST
I kept the A here to perserve the chances of drawing something that hooks AG going down on column M. A better idea is probably just QI, going for ARIETTA/ATRETIC/ITERATE/INTREAT/ARTISTE, but IT is ok too. #tacticssmall
I probably didn't need to be so defensive here since Amika didn't keep an S after OOLITE. I got too focused on blocking this and shoud have looked harder and spotted C9 DA(B)BLE for 40, even with the hooks it takes. That's too many more points. #visionmedium
I should probably leave the 3 row open, it's hard for him to close. I hated all my options - DAV(E)N? that puts pressure on at least, it's probably better than VAN. I was kinda hoping he wouldn't have a good TAGS block, but he can always do a mediocre one from the G in KLEAGLES or with ETA, and then I have to bingo on some terrible marginal lane. I think I got too obsessed with staying in bingo range, DAVEN isn't likely to win but at least I will be able to have a place to bingo. I think B4 ADD is good as well, keeping the 3 row and 13 rows open. either one of those seem way better than VAN #strategylarge
i didn't think of PRETAPING at the time but of course it's good. F2 PI most likely, but do i want to keep the E open like that, i don't know. -4.5 #visionmedium
10A DHOTI would have been really nice for 6 more and I save the J for another scoring play! Gotta learn to find higher scoring without needing power tiles sometimes. #visionmedium
I do draw a bingo starting in B, but I miss the gorgeous MES(H)WORK F2 and make my most hilarious blunder of the tournament. Thinking of BITEWING(S). This was so crazy it worked. Billy held and released. #knowledgeSADDEST
ugh this is too difficult. with such a small % chance of winning, i don't know what's right anymore. it seems in these types of situations i have to limit the amount of damage he can do, so something like 4K AY or YA is going to sim best despite keeping a U. the problem with GUY, even though it does play short and keeps a good leave, is that it gives back so many points; i know this but have to hope he can't punish it too much. -3 #strategymedium
Quackle likes GLEIS but likes G13 GIE a bit more; interestingly, it far prefers GIE to GIO in the same spot, expecting I get a lot more bingos down the M column paralleling SO and perhaps a handful on column I with the (D)O(R) insertion. #strategysmall
This turn, I completely failed to see TRISTE(Z)A through the Z, which was yet another case of complete blindness to a bingo I looked for. I realized I had TRISTEZA right after I made my play.
I also looked for 5-way overlaps, but failed to see the only one, STARETS at I2. That's the play. I really didn't want to make an X spot, so failing to see STARETS and TRISTEZA, I could still make an effort to see RHEOSTAT, which doesn't create the X spot. #findinglarge
I really just need to play off the X. Just gotta find my 9s. If he bingos with BOWS or BOWL, I get N(AT)ROLITE with an I or L, I get R(AT)TOONED, and with Y or S, I get (AT)TORNEYS. With an M, TORMENT(Or). And then there are the overlaps of whatever bingo Jon would play on row 13. Still, I do insta-lose after some bingos. X(ED) 13B is the alternative, setting up a new lane. There's only one E left. Even if Jon plays on the A column, I will usually win after an out-bingo. If he gets something huge like FILMIER A8 for 101, he will be at 439, with a full rack and an empty bag. If I draw the Y, I get ATTORNEYs for 94 and 14 from Jon, winning with a 455. If I draw a bingo on row 13 like TONNERs, I'm scoring 72 and getting 20, tying with a 439. That's at the upper end of bad for me. However, if Jon doesn't bingo immediately, the same will then apply for my bingos on the A column. So it gets kind of dicey. Still, it's a very interesting option. This one, OX, runs into some bad draws, with only a 2/3 chance at best of a bingo. Playing just the X off is more like a 75% chance. This does block a bit, and his bingos will actually open a lane after this, which is why I chose it. But this was a scared play. Could have really gone badly for me. #strategylarge
wasted a lot of time here and didn't even find all the plays. NEWB is there as well as WREN (I saw WREN but not NEWB), BR(E)W I didn't even consider, but I don't like it. Not sure what is right here, but I am sure that I overscored this by 2 and Joey called me on it, and 2 points is a lot. B(U)RGER might just be the play at E7. I was trying to get a blowout here also, since if Karl beat Mack, I would have to have beaten Joey by more. I was hoping that my insolence wouldn't cost me the game, so there was a lot of pressure. This is probably a bit much especially since I'm trying to win by a lot. #strategysmall
D11 (T)OTTY seems right, I hit SIZ(Y) with an I, DOZ(Y) with an O, ZEDS or DE(CRYING) with an E, and a whole host of other fun scoring plays exist because I kept the Z, the best tile in Scrabble. #knowledgemedium #findingmedium
Very panicky. I was low on time and did not realize that triple-triples were unlikely with this pool. D1 LATRINE is fine. On the other hand, Moiz was very low on time and making a drawn out endgame will be favorable. #strategysaddest
#knowledgesad for challenge F12 PIU or F13 UP are nice here. I think my play leaves too many vowels. Even 13E (X)U is better (I bingo like 75% of the time after) #tacticssaddest
need to fish off one with G4 (A)N and hope to draw the S (all my bingos rn lose). My bingos next turn (if i draw the S) are basically unblockable #endgamesaddest
Q says she averages about the same after OOF and POOF, I'm surprised by that. I trust her plays are still a bit easier after OOF, but I guess I overestimated the difference. #tacticssmall
He tried blocking F2 EAtERIE but forgot about EARD. I also forgot about EARD. I hope I would have seen it with more than 1 minute. 1F EAtERIE is gg. #TIMESADDEST
#knowledgesaddest for not challenging ANAGOGUE* earlier. This is also a tilt play. UH is fine, even though he's likely to have a D. I eat those chances up with the benefits of the UH play, and it's not like HUH doesn't give him so much back. #strategylarge
I missed 15J TAHSIL! What a wicked play #knowledgemedium #findingmedium
compared HALT and HILT, decided that yes there were more A's out, but the ZI combo is still much worse than ZA, although I get NAZI with an A, so hmm.
unfortunately I took 4-5 minutes here making sure there was no 3x3, and didn't count how much a play would score at 13B. TINHORn scores 3 more than my bingos to the C. #findingsmall. ORNITHIC was more defensive but I was only 80% sure of it or so. #knowledgesmall
BUNYIP N9 seemed too dangerous given his two last plays, but D(A)UBY 7C is there, which is probably about 15 spread points better than this. #findingsaddest
Admittedly, I was nervous about the Q, which is why I passed up I1 PUJA as the Q only would have played at B7 until my move. PUJA would have been fine as Robin can't do much with this pool. #strategyquestionable
this was a really interesting spot. I would have played PALPED had I known it to valid. Barring that, tons of options existed. I doubted how important the hooks on LAPPED were in the grand scheme of things, other than their effect on standard deviation from the norm. A1 plays were kind of likely to block that hook. This board was also full of scoring potential, and I didn't like squandering myself at all here with equity values. DAPPL(E) was an option, I thought of APPLED* and doubted it. TAPP(E)D leaving LN seemed ugly. I didn't see LAPP(E)T or APPL(E)T keeping DN. That looks fine as well. #knowledgesmall for PALPED.
This wins a sim but I'm not sure if it's correct against a human. It might be blocked by plays on the N column too often, I dunno. Also, #knowledgesad for the challenge of MICKY.
I might prefer playing this for 9 more at I5? Can't imagine this is worth sacrificing so much.
Upon reviewal I like I4 TRIP, since it blocks a lot of annoying scoring plays at H1, despite allowing me to bingo next turn significantly less. #strategysmall
Wow. I had severe tunnel vision on this first move. I only saw X(U) which was very defensive and draw into some stuff like OTOLOGIC and ZOOLOGIC or something else if more stuff is opened. The other thing I considered was IGLOO 9J to try and set my X up. I totally failed to consider another X setup play, COL(U)GO I5. It's a less worrisome version of IGLOO, giving around 2 points fewer back on average, fewer bingos, and giving me a little bit more. IGLOO is more defensive down the line, which is good if things fall into place, but not good when they don't. I also totally missed OXIC 7J, which is standard. I would consider this a mistake over COL(U)GO for sure, even though IGLOO appears to benefit me over time. FWIW X(U) sims similarly well to the X-setup options, and it also seems to complicate the game the most. With so few moves available in the position, I find it most outrageous that I failed to see other candidates, and am more concerned about that than anything else. #findingsmall #tacticssmall
i think i actually have to exchange all of them. there's a lot of Es unseen already and Ss and blanks and other good tiles to go for. -0.5 #tacticssmall
TOPS is just so good on both row 10 and column i and also maintains a better balance and I really like it in terms of decreasing variance: I'm basically assured a decent play next turn with a balanced leave that has good upside, as opposed to PRS which can easily crash. Still, this isn't worth it: I know Norases has an A a lot, these spots are not really that good, and I'm giving my opponent over 8 points in expected score next turn while sacrificing 2 points. The OPST flexibility just doesn't make up for the fact that it's certainly nowhere 10 points better than PRS #strategymedium
I have like 0% chance of winning. With L11 SIEGE at least I can prioritize reaching 300 sometime this century. But, like, it's the case S. I'm feeling greedy. Also I forgot to look on that side of the board. #strategysaddest ? #visionsaddest ALSO #knowledgesad for challenging a 3. May or may not have been a "stop closing down the board for the love of god" challenge, but my lips are sealed
Seemed a worthwhile gamble; if Tim doesn't have an E or blank it's just so annoying. Quackle slightly prefers M8 PEZANT, 2A PATZER, and 13J GATED. PEZANT opens two lines at once on a board without many good ones; PATZER creates a moderately annoying threat on column A. Marlon noted that GATED sets up both ZAG and ZIT as potential overlaps on row 11, which I didn't consider. All three plays draw more tiles towards a blank with both unseen than ADZ does. Upgrading this from small to #strategymedium. 11:14
Fishing for Z plays at 10J in a way that doesn't arouse suspicion. J10 ZA is best, followed by plays using the letters BURD, BUD, BURDS, etc. but suspiciously not at 10J. #tacticsmedium
MOLASSE# is actually a big mistake, and I should attempt to go out with a bingo. 4A MOWS appears to be best, winning about 1/5 of games if Championship Player is to be trusted. #strategylarge
feeling a bit less sexy now. Maybe I just take the points with 13J WHEATS because it blocks all the SATIRIZED stuff. That sims best by a bunch. #strategymedium
I put down 15K (S)HIVA first but picked it up because I was afraid of not drawing enough vowels with FLT to get the bing I need. I didn't even consider Q bombs. RIP. Even 15K (S)HAFT is alright, this is a huge oversight. #strategylarge
EBBS is annoying now, there's something to be said for leaving the C open in part to make a lay down to D8 to take out EBBS. however, ebbs isn't a huge threat cause it opens the triple for me, so outrunning is more of the goal here, with VIGILS open a bit as well. TAKA looks good for both of these goals, DFIU is more balanced as well and I block VIGILS. #findingmedium
M6 NE(T)ES or 5A SEEN would be exponentially better than weird desperation out-play (especially when it has a valid, playable anagram) #endgamesaddest #timesaddest
i saw ELVEN and i was positive it wasn't good, or at least just Collins. did they add it in 2014 or 2018? i should have played it anyway since it's my only win right? i was 2-5 and had to leave for dinner and was not thinking straight. #endgamelarge
didn't find enough plays here - HUM 13B and P(R)AHU are both good. I saw THUMP and HAO, both of which seem a bit better than this. I underestimated IMNPU, I suppose it's at least balanced and decent for scoring despite the U. I feel like I overthought this position despite not thinking very coherently. #findingmedium
i saw that this won, and i only had about a minute to find something better and didn't. the best play by far is 10H ENVOI, which leaves an out in two places. #time #endgamelarge