13M GU(T). I thought 1H UNRO(V)E was a huge strategic error after the game, but it's too close to be making short blocking plays, I need to score. It's still a mistake though. #strategysadder
It doesn't look like there's any out in 2 that blocks row 15, but 14G T(E)NOR is best threatening C12 J(O)UR to go out and G3 J(E)U once it gets blocked. #endgamesaddest
Huge mistake. Probably my biggest of this tournament. I didn't realize 1) How many bingos were in the pool starting with PE and ending with some IN pattern and 2) That I could most likely outrun these scenarios. I was concerned about a refish after I made a play like K2 QAD(I) and only wanted to give him one shot. I just assumed the bingos would score too much and that I would always lose. A play like J3 DA(F)TLY is really strong here keeping 1 in the bag and saving QI. #strategysaddest
S isn't amazing here so it's best to take 13 points with SN(E)LL 6H which I considered. Also better to keep RS here, the vowels to play through do not comprise of an E so the D is not very good. #strategysmall
Absolutely clutch draw with picking both remaining Ss on just a 3 tile pull. I did bend by accepting the phony, which led to him drawing into his 1st bingo, but there's nothing I can do about his 2nd one except score and dump the V. I also could have left the S off to try scoring with YAEGERS*, which he might not even challenge if both of us really thought YAEGER* was good. #strategymedium
Saw ClAQUER for 125 hooking CANON before he played. Tilted after, and missed the A4 QUARE for 87 leaving C? and the clearly best A2 ACQUiRE for 146. #findingsaddest
there are a number of fairly easy bingos available on row 11, which a player like me would find on any given day, but not in this game. which is problematic, as these are the types of games where i most need to find these moves. -18.5 #focus #visionlarge I had tunnel vision with setting up EST here partially.
I didn't even consider doing 8A BUsH for 51 which would have been sick! While I'm glad to have seen this one with 2 blanks, as well as D8 H(O)LIBUts, D6 BIH(O)UrLy is the safest one for only 2 less. #findinglarge
My issues evaluating V-containing leaves continue. FAVES is the better option; it scores 4 more than BARFS and bingos approximately 1% more without yielding any higher opp. avg. score. #tacticssmall
I don't remember whether I passed up on the bingos or missed them entirely. But the top 5 plays are all bingos: D5 mUTINEER is best, followed by D6 cEINTURE, D5 rEUNITER, D6 gENITURE, and D6 UNrETIRE. #findinglarge
I was afraid to play off my other I with BIDI for 4 more points with the consonant-heavy pool. But now it's pretty funny that another reasonable option is B7 BIRD for just 1 less, which might look a bit better since there's still 2 more Is to draw. #findingsmall
just fishing the F with EFF hits 32/75 of the pool! and is very defensive. I put the T on for extra defense, he averages over 5 less than after VEX. I didn't mind the scoring spot VEXT opens cause if he hits it he's likely giving one back to me. Still, 7E EF or (EF)F look better #findingsmall EF vs (EF)F is interesting, the latter is more standard but the former also invites 8a openings which open the board for me, and I average a lot next turn.
I think this looks fine over DAVIT in terms of turnover. I will say a slightly better play is L1 A(N)VILED since I use the ANURAL hook, which was missed again. #visionsmall
Scored as 36. QANAT has the best equity, but the best play is O3 VALONIA, which blocks high-scoring bingos on columns N and O. Also, I might as well play my I off, given that six more I's are unseen. #strategymedium
the worst miss of the tournament I would say. Saw RENAILS and NAILERS and knew there was a 3rd. Then I couldn't find it. So I stopped looking and decided this was better than NAILERS despite TRENAILS because I needed to maximize scoring spots for myself for the rest of the game to try and outrun. ALINERS is just better. How could I miss this. #findingSADDEST
I'm not sure... I think a12 plays come down a lot, in which case I want to keep as much bingo space open. based on a sim, it seems like the top left marginal lanes are realllly marginal, keeping them open barely improves my bingo chances. I think I should do WAND or D(A)N L7 over CANID, if an a12 play is happening I want to go harder on the bingo%, it will be difficult to outrun. WAND could possibly outrun. #strategysmall
tough choice here again. I could open nothing of import with M3 JOG and sacrifice a lot of points, go with DEBARKING now and eat his bingos, or go with JINGO 4A which seems to be most thematic, hoping to respond to a bingo with a scoring play from the J. Big issue with both JINGO and DEBARKING is that they bail out a lot of draws. AI and II in particular get bailed out bigtime with bingos after DEBARKING and JAILER with JINGO. That's just the beginning. However, he bingos so often no matter what (2/3 if I do nothing and he finds everything) that it's maybe worth giving up here. I so often sacrifice points to play JOG and get bingo-ed on from the C. But the lingering issue is DEBARKERS. Since Quackle once again assumes DEBARKERS will be played if Wally doesn't bingo, other plays (JINGO and JOG) are a lot more reasonable than Quackle thinks. Considering the numbers and what I know here, I think this was a minor mistake, despite winning the sim. Definitely a tough position to sus out without calculating and iterating, which I don't think I did either. #strategysmall
Rough turn and pretty much a contributing factor to how this board turned out. I missed 10G J(e)UX which is clearly the move despite taking out my own S hook. It keeps the board open the longest and allows me to fork nicely. 11E JUGS does sim better even though the difference is only 7 between JUGS and my play due to the board shape that I would need because I'm already behind. I wasn't crazy about burning my S for only 7 more, but J(e)UX was the only way to accomplish that. #visionlarge
Matt's suggestion of H12 (TE)DY after the game seems to be correct. That and 13M GA(T) are the only winning plays. They outrun bingos in every scenario. #strategysaddest
missed Q(A)NAT in the same spot, which is technically better, but I thought it was unlikely he would be able to overlap on row 11 all the way #findingsmall
oh shit C3 ENVIR(O)N is an option here. Dig for the blank again, perhaps give myself better tempo, but it doesn't seem like it's the right play. Hm.. This whole game was hm. O7 LEVIN is better at least. #findingsmall
Stupid J draw. While it is basically a tossup between this and 10B JADES, 3G JA(C)ALES is worth it despite how much that could give up. I played this turn too scared. #strategylarge
super conservative here in not playing WHAP, but I should have realized that WHA was better than WAP. I think I was a bit overloaded with options here. This is a bad play. #tacticsmedium
M3 PER(I)WIG is not easy to spot, but it is clearly best. Also, it is probably ok to do 5K WELP for just 2 less and make a much worse board for Jack. I didn't see that one and Jack averages so much less after WELP. #findingmedium
okras is the play here. even though RS > NS, the difference is small on this board, and OKRAS gives back enough fewer points from that overlap that it's worth it. i'm still sad about playing KOANS instead of KAONS, which sims half a point higher. it's a tiny difference, but it had a huge effect, and that's why it's important to make as few errors as possible. it seems impossible to get rid of all these little leaks. -1 #tacticssmall #knowledgesmall
So close to doing 8A THO despite the duplicated Is and lost my nerve. Another idea I didn't see: I13 IT to set up ETH plays. KITTEN blows up my rack far too much for not enough points. #strategymedium 13:23
I missed B3 Up(H)EAVAL but somehow this is simming better. Best is N13 UVA. It seems like the engine wants me to bingo out with the OIL hook or through HARPY after her bingo, which seems reasonable since I'm currently up 14 and would catch her with 6 tiles. #strategysad
Already feeling a little time crunch here and threw down D8 WAN pretty fast, hoping that my -ER containing leave might work better for hitting column E than whatever Sue held; but I'm much better off playing inside with something like O8 KNEW, scoring just as well while retaining the A to play parallel to the J in the future. #strategymedium
N2 OUS is Quackle's interesting suggestion - only the L hooks it in the unseen pool, and I have the N to hook NOUS myself; the AEINR leave also bingos a solid amount here. #strategysmall 10:18
15D CURV(Y) setting up my S is such a great play. He might not even think I have an S after that play too! Looks like a missed opportunity. #visionlarge
i didn't spot the J14 GYP spot, and at this point i'm pretty unfocused. gotta work on focusing in all situations. since a loss here will make me 1-2 in the early bird so far, it was tough to stay positive, given how i lost the last game! This is a great example of how one lost moment of focus costs one the game. The most elite players make the right play here - it is essential to keep the V to score at 8D, so the best plays should actually keep EV. that makes YEN even better. In the main event, I had a somewhat similar situation, but at that point I was significantly more concentrated and I think I made the right decision. -16 #visionlarge