Leaving OO isn't appealing either, but AXIAL was missed for 6 more. An exchange 4 is at least random enough to the point where I can just play my game. AXIAL keeps the board open longer, which is what I sorely need to have against Richard. #findingsmall
Another interesting call between HEXED, INDEXED, and XI, all of which score essentially the same. Whichever I play, Jackson pretty much has to bingo immediately, since otherwise I can play down through the D in BIND and block everything at once. XI is pretty clearly worse since it blocks nothing and also allows plays like JOINT/BINDI to not empty the bag, which makes it possible that they might outrun me without a bingo (virtually impossible if they empty the bag, as they would after INDEXED or HEXED). As for HEXED vs. INDEXED, it looks like I misevaluated the danger or row 14 after INDEXED. There's really not that many bingos he can have there with that pool, but HEXED gives back stuff like DIVINING, DONATING, DONATION. These bngoes also score more than row 14 bingos do after INDEXED, making me less likely to be able to outrun them. So INDEXED looks like a small improvement. #strategysmall #preendgamesmall
Looks like I should definitely play 9D IF here. I bingo about the same amount, but it looks like I drastically overestimated the dangerousness of the -IF hook. Apparently he averages 11 (!) more after FIVE than IF, which is far more than I would've guessed. I suppose I just give him a cheap 30 or 40 with stuff like OH so often. I'm just gonna call this a #strategysmall though since it only sims like 1% worse.
I'm down, so I guess I need to be aggressive by playing L2 ETCHInG. I didn't want to do it because there was still an F, two Ls, and an R unseen. IDK, maybe I distract my opponent with this while I hope to bingo elsewhere. big oof. #strategysmall
didn't like what this did to the board, but something like AW only leaves the 3 row open, the other lanes aren't good anyways. looks between this and AW. AW seems to leave more space open and bingoes a bit more immediately #tacticssmall
G3 GAP or PEG in the spot where I played are better to preserve the CKLR synergy. Another idea is N2 PRICKLE, hoping to draw tiles to outrun. #strategysmall
missed all the other bings here. Sadface. RECYCLER I should see, RECOVERY I should see. mERCERY I don't play because it opens a 3x3, I'd best play CE(L)ERY for 28. Also thought he might challenge this. #findinglarge
Completely tanked on this move. I didn't even consider keeping the U, which might led me to G12 (M)EG or G10 UN(M)ET. The metrics I used for this turn were off, I was too focused on dumping the U, so #strategylarge.
i spent a long time on this move and then made a bad play. i should play CURIE 10K here, i considered it and it is aggressive, and good, i have the case S. it might be slightly worse because he is consonant heavy. i strongly considered 9C UNTIE as well, and saw that the bag was consonant heavy (11 vowels and 16 consonants unseen). i knew he probably had like 4-5 of the consonants at least based on his last few plays, so that may even out the bag a little bit, but still, UTE seemed to bingo a lot. my problem is that the bag still has a lot of ugly high point tiles that won't bingo. i was worried that if i played UNTIE or CURIE i would draw 4 consonants and my rack would go to hell. still, i don't know how i spend such a long time on this rack and then make such a lame move. i should be less afraid and play CURIE. there are high scoring tiles to go for like the J, Z, X which i need to outrun him. i even considered DA(CE) for quite a while, which sims almost as well as CURIE. i basically grossly overestimated how much UTE would bingo, and then spent a while trying to justify to myself that i should play it, and then decided it was worth the risk. i was totally wrong. -9.5 #strategylarge
I almost played OPIATE/AVAUNT to go for the blank, and then I didn't because I was worried about the spot it created. So fucking stupid, because O11 is already a thing. Idiot. #strategylarge
He ALMOST played L9 RAIS(I)NG, which would have given me M5 PINKEST
D3 P(O)KE here? Keep trying for a bingo? #strategylarge Also, I miscounted 5F (JO)KIEST as 34 oop
totally confused here. This was actually pretty awful since he can just re-overlap and fork the board. I did happen to block SUBATOM in two spots, but
#tacticsmedium
WEEDIER only plays in Collins! :( WEIRD might just give up too many points. JEWED or WIDEN sim better partially for that reason -- i also bingo slightly more often after JEWED. -2 #strategysmall
-3 exch R actually sims ok, although DOR sims better on 4-ply. main problem with DOR is that it's relatively easy to block and i only hold one hook for it. i thought of GRIND as well but didn't consider -R. #strategysmall
this was a grave mistake. I am not in a position to be able to afford just pure balance. Sure, keeping a vowel is a plus, but it's not a plus enough. I'm going to need more than just a balanced leave to stay in this game. L13 FEW is the play. #strategymedium
Fishing off the U and N with K7 UN(WIELDY) is a lot better. I got inexplicably fearful of the triple-triple I'd left open for so long? playing too scared. #findingsadddest
this is not a word and certainly not signifcantly better (or better at all) than the best valid options. 9F NONE sims a lot better due to scoring defense and immediate score. I had gotten way too averse to bad leaves at this point in my Scrabble quest. #knowledgemedium #strategymedium
same deal here as last turn. OBIAS raises both of our averages, this time mine more than hers even! EIOS isnot good here, the S isn't especially powerful, I should just go in with OBIAS. I guess the key in the last two plays is that the better leave with the low scoring play isn't actually that much better, which is why my average score is more affected by opening the board than by keeping the better leave, so it's better in both cases to take the points and raise both of our averages. here the difference in leave is starker. #tacticsmedium
i wanted to open even a crappy lane so this board doesn't fully shut down on me. -8, 12D WHAT sims better, maybe i'll get lucky. idk, hard to know how bad my move is really. #strategymedium
feeling a bit less sexy now. Maybe I just take the points with 13J WHEATS because it blocks all the SATIRIZED stuff. That sims best by a bunch. #strategymedium
this makes the X really powerful, AXES is like a game winning play. She already really likely has an S on her rack, probably not the X but it's possible she kept it with ZA (with AX I12 I'd assume she didn't have it). NIB only allows AXES, whereas BIN allows both axis and axes. am I in a bad enough position to need to win by getting axis? if that's the case I should play BIN. If I think I can win another way I should make it less likely she gets the play, and should play NIB. I didn't consider BI(T) 6F which is pretty cool - I save HADJI for next turn and don't allow the big X possibility. Can I win if she draws the X and I don't draw the blank? I feel like after BIT the game becomes more about the blank, whereas after BIN it's more about the X and AX?S, but the blank could still allow me to bingo if she got the play. Turnover is important here cause of the value of the blank and X, so maybe I should play QUERYING - still saves BIT and HADJI plays, doesn't give anything back.
I'm inclined to not exchange here, even though it seems like a decent option optimally. I think I can outrun here, and I'd like to be able to outrun even if I don't draw the blank. I feel like QUERYING is good even though the sim hates it - I don't allow AX?S plays, I save HADJI and BIT for future turns, at which point she may have played the I or X. I think I should at least play NIB over BIN, my chance of drawing AXIS is pretty low so I should at least make it harder for her to get it. Other than that I have no idea what to do here. #strategysmall
Wow. I had severe tunnel vision on this first move. I only saw X(U) which was very defensive and draw into some stuff like OTOLOGIC and ZOOLOGIC or something else if more stuff is opened. The other thing I considered was IGLOO 9J to try and set my X up. I totally failed to consider another X setup play, COL(U)GO I5. It's a less worrisome version of IGLOO, giving around 2 points fewer back on average, fewer bingos, and giving me a little bit more. IGLOO is more defensive down the line, which is good if things fall into place, but not good when they don't. I also totally missed OXIC 7J, which is standard. I would consider this a mistake over COL(U)GO for sure, even though IGLOO appears to benefit me over time. FWIW X(U) sims similarly well to the X-setup options, and it also seems to complicate the game the most. With so few moves available in the position, I find it most outrageous that I failed to see other candidates, and am more concerned about that than anything else. #findingsmall #tacticssmall
I spent over 7 minutes on this turn and couldn't find any double-doubles. Two blanks are too hard for a feeble mind like mine. There were four 2x2s. Gah this was horrible #findingsaddest #knowledgesaddest
I was trying to block row 1 bings, but with both blanks unseen I think I just have to try to go for my own bingo. 13E SITCOM and 14B (TE)LOMIC both look good here to dig for a blank. It's likely he has one, but I think turnover could be important here with so few tiles left to dig for the other. #strategylarge
I think I really need to do 15A DJIN here. This is a mistake that is very avoidable. I score only 1 less while giving back so much less to him. #findingsmall
I don't think I was mentally present during this game because so far I've 1) EXCHANGED MY S and 2) fished OO for 4 (not even 8!)
Also 11E COO(R)IES #VISIONSADDEST #FINDINGSADDEST and #knowledgesad for the challenge