10F WONS has to be worth it even though this sets up my J nicely. I could draw a J play at C7 as well as hit K5 JO, but WONS is too many more points. #strategylarge
This was just a clear misevaluation of an opening position I think. The math in my head was all wrong. There are three plays better than this one, I like VET the best #strategysmall
And yet, the nagging voice in my head telling me FUDS is no good (mixing it up with WUDS*, of course) tells me to throw it right back. I was 95% sure FUDS was bad but OF COURSE I should still try it instead of accepting a loss. A 5% chance at a win is worth a lot more than 25 spread. Idiotic and missed mate in one (4th of the tourney?) #knowledgesaddest
This play isn't bad. At least I found an OK way to play thru this rack, but the play I was looking for here was F7 (BE)RYL which I did miss. That would have given me another S hook to work with despite the slightly less synergistic DNPS leave. On the other hand, I think my play surprisingly sims a little better than BERYL because LPRS is more synergistic. #findingmedium
unsure of OFFY#! - hence why I didn't play AYU with OFFA, but totally spaced on AYU with FA and FY which is probably the best play anyway #findingsaddest
14D ULVA is a nice play. i saw it, and passed on it because there's a lot of big tiles left and he can just score there and outrun me (GOUTY or something). but maybe i should do this, so that i have a good scoring spot myself. maybe i don't have much choice. quackle likes ULVA a lot. i think the main point should be to try to find a winning line. what do i have after LAVA? nothing. after ULVA, i get to draw for a big play somewhere, leave 1 in the bag, and then maybe win that way. #strategymedium
super conservative here in not playing WHAP, but I should have realized that WHA was better than WAP. I think I was a bit overloaded with options here. This is a bad play. #tacticsmedium
so this was a huge mistake on many levels! Firstly I somehow got it in my mind he had DEHIMOS on his rack. LOVAGES/MICROS would give him DEMOLISH, whereas he would get HOMIE after G8 LOVAGES. That's why I played it here, but not only was I wrong and he has ADEHMOS, I average so much after DEMOLISH that it's actually worth it to play 9B lovages even if he has dehimos! that being said the post-HOMIE board is better for me so I think it's closer than the sim says, but the sim still prefers 9B by like 11 points. #strategylarge for being dumb
I didn't have to phony here. I saw TOKENING but it looked awful, and missed everything else. KENoT(R)ON is a word I was not familiar with, and it plays for 94! I also had NEKTON(I)c. #knowledgelarge
Thought this was a good phony though. I chose the more volatile spot because it was less likely to get challenged if it meant leaving big spots open.
I have no idea what I was doing at this point. I saw the J, I saw the open triple, and all rational thought left my body. The J was definitely my number one nemesis this tournament.
L1 JEL(L) is fine here. #STRATEGYLARGE
damn so it turns out A12 (F)LIC wins if I draw N or S, and I11 FLIC/FLIR or K11 ERIC win if I draw the S. I had like none time (left beef) on my clock by this point so i hadn't even tracked. also, #knowledgesad for letting FIES* go. #timesaddest #endgamesaddest
DIATRON doesn't play, wonderful. If Jamie is gonna bingo anyway even after I do L9 ODOR, maybe do that instead. This was too aggressive. #strategylarge
The G is so bad that A8 KNUR is barely worth it for 7 more. 14L YUK is worth it though because of the open I in INFIX which suits leaving GNST nicely. #visionlarge
This game is going to be interesting. Too bad I missed a key option here, E5 LAY(O)UTS, so perhaps things would have been different if I had seen that. I liked this over (G)UY because the leave was less bingo-dependent and slightly less variant. I probably missed LAY(O)UTS because I spent the first minute or so of my time lamenting that SALUTORY* was the word I think Nigel Peltier played against Conrad at 2014 Nationals which Conrad accepted. #findingsmall
10B WIENERS is far superior, but even if I don't see that something like C2 WRIEST is absolutely fine...way too big an equity hit with WURST just to get another S hook on the board. #strategymedium #findingmedium
i gotta find FL(U)ID ... FUD is not good enough. i was a little worried about the X so that flipped the scales, but i hadn't seen FLUID. -4 #findingmedium
I really didn't want to play YOWIEs N10 because of the I draws, but this has to be worse. I ran out of time. Quackle likes 11E (Q)I, which is hilarious. I think this is just bad. YOWIEs has to be better #strategySAD
how did I miss 2M BRR? It's not great to block the C, but it's worse to score zero with a reasonable play on hand. This was horrendous. #findingSADDEST
lots of options here. This seems a bit too middling and remember regretting it. G(ID) is fine even though it doesn't hit much. I should block the spot and keep decently. #strategysmall
LIT(RE) is better, or OPT/TIME, or even LIT at 13G. another sorta steamy unfocused play. i'm definitely still not very good at close games. #strategymedium
the aggressive 14K F(I)CE sims far best, but are the 10 extra points of equity worth the incredible defense I am planning to play after FE(E)ING? (yes) #strategysmall
should play (J)EE here, sets up the R and I get to play YAGER for 40ish with an A draw. Very interesting, I think I shot my load too early on this one. #strategysadder ##fuckme
If I'm keeping the G here I have to hold the N with 6A OWE, very basic stuff. I really do seem to misplay Gs all the time. Should be an easy fix... #tacticsmedium
M1 LOVE apparently has the best chance of winning; Will will block row 1 but I could potentially get a bingo at A1 with the Q and then draw another bingo? Nah, even if I get 2 bingos Will should outrun easily. 5I VLOG has the highest valuation. #strategysmall I guess
this move symbolizes everything that is wrong with my scrabble game (i know that sounds hyperbolic, but hear me out). of course i should try to block, but the only thing that looked halfway decent was ADZ. still, the most important thing here is to ask myself how I can lose this game, and it is by him hitting a huge bingo afterwards, and me drawing poorly to RTVY, and him bingoing again. can that happen? absolutely. if i play ADZ, i force him to bingo at the top; row 2 or 3 most likely. I can then overlap his play, blocking any potential bingos, and i'm still up by a lot, and should be heavily favored to win. i even thought about something silly like VIZSLA being possible but if anything i have the V. ZOOID sims best of course. the biggest mistake i made here, and one that i make often, is not having enough empathy to put myself in his shoes and realize he's likely keeping an extremely strong leave. of course i thought the leave was probably pretty good, but it also seemed desperate enough that ZOOID might just block whatever he has, and that there's a decent chance he missed his fish as well. i didn't think he would have the blank. if i give him AEIS? as a leave ADZ DOES sim better than ZOOID, lowering his average score by about 24. with 4-ply ADZ is still on top. the only issue is that the win% diff is so tiny, yet i'm convinced this is a massive error. #strategylarge
Definitely did not like B8 TIZ with there being only the unseen K in this pool, and I also didn't care for 5K GLITZ as that's like throwing meat in a lion's cage. 2F (BLOW)ZIER is a nice extension which I did not spot. That's easily better than anything else there is. #findingmedium
What do I block, 15H sELENIC/sILENCE or O1 SILICONEs? Quackle says neither, that 14A UNS and many other plays outrun. I decided to block sELENIC/sILENCE, I think because it scores more and is easier to find than SILICONEs. However, my block for sELENIC/sILENCE scores only 3 points, and if Matt has sELENIC/sILENCE he also has L4 ELENChI. Also O1 SILENCINg, L4 CaNNOLI, and 4G LYCOpENE and sYNCLINE exist. In order to block all bingos except sELENIC/sILENCE/ELENChI, I would have to play three or more tiles on row 3 spanning from 3L to 3N, but it is impossible to do that without allowing another bingo starting from 3M. In short, blocking bingos isn't worth it, and 14A UNS saving F4 FLEW is best. #tacticslarge
this is 1 off M11 DR(A)B, blocking LUN like I wanted to, but going out for 20 with KA(F). Thought about (TURTLE)D to go for some fun AQUA stuff if he plays LUN, but it works out 1 worse for me if he plays it right. -1 #endgamesmall
very happy with this simple win, but CL(E)AN is best, setting up the sick TSK I5 for next move. I think this is something like 17 points back. #endgamesaddest
And now this game is all but over since I drew very well. That said, I did not know 13F GOT(C)HIeS for 89 and missed 15A (T)OnIGHTS for 86. #findingsmall
I really wanted to play OUTFOXING but this looked better for me. 22 points is pretty good, the leave is better. And I know it doesn't take an S, unlike FOXING. #tacticssmall
This was quite aggressive. I didn't see 7D OF, which makes it quite hard for Rob to do much of anything. This is a bit counter-productive, since my 2nd S is useful to hook LUV (or BUY for that matter). This nicely creates a spot to play a bingo that doesn't require the S to be in 1st to 6th position, but he is just too likely to play there, and there is just no reason to give up an easier spot for Rob to bingo as well. My rack is more than good enough to coast despite being a bit down on the scoreboard. OF 5J was definitely too aggressive though, at least I didn't play that. #finidingsmall #tacticssmall
I didn't see NONHErO which I would have been more sure of, and also sure that it doesn't have an S hook. The R placement makes G8 NONHErO the move. #findingsmall
In addition to the J12 plays, Josh has 15A FREsCO(Es) for 42 and out. Both of missed that one after the game. This game had the worst board I've seen all tournament. What an ugly yet hilarious game.
Josh: I was so enamored with the fact that I had outplays in two spots with 6 tiles that I totally missed 15A FREsCO(ES)! This game was absolutely stupid, I felt I should have lost it by 200 myself, but I just drew the entirety of the bag. #endgamelarge #findingsaddest
I saw 4K AD(O) and figured N1 AM was better because 2 more points but I probably need that lane. This is, ofc, because I missed all possible bingos #knowledgesaddest #tacticssad
I don't remember my exact leave here and I didn't record it because I was extremely low on time. This is just a guess since I know I had AEIIRST the next turn. Regardless, this is almost certainly incorrect. #strategylarge
realized my thought process was flawed after I made this play. I have to hope Jason has the worst rack ever here. So if I do that, then I don't want to let him be allowed to exchange next turn. Which is why I didn't play CUE 11J. But I can actually win if he exchanges, even when it throws bad letters into the pool. That's something I might need to hope for. #strategyquestionable
TALLY isn't really a dramatic enough fork to do over just I6 LAZY; a play to the triple after TALLY leaves a horrendous board for scoring if I don't hit a bingo, and hitting one isn't very likely. That being said, LAZY can get me fenced in pretty much immediately as well. Tough spot. I think LAZY is better. #strategysmall
I missed 7M WOE and 12D OWE here, I was v fixated on TWO/WOE before he played BEEN so I think I tunnelled on the spot. #tacticssmall OWE looks a bit better for my bingo % even though the S is a better lane for me, he doesn't block the N as much as the S next turn.
I didn't see E11 (K)HAF, but this isn't too much worse. It felt reckless to set up an S hook that I don't have and keep a not very promising leave. With that said, a play that might fit the theme of playing it safer is 13D HUB, and it does sim ahead of FUB despite HATE being a usually better leave. #strategysmall
This has best equity, but 6J N(O)NG# wins a close sim, in front of 6J N(O)G and G(O)N#. CON keeps GN for (TOADY)ING and sets up a lane for -ING bingos on column M, but I guess keeping a flexible leave is more important than points on this board, and with the S, I have all the bingo lanes I need. #tacticssmall I guess