with an ERS inference, OLIO is second best to 3K O(B)OLI, which i thought about and wasn't 100% sure was a word. i still don't like OBOLI all that much, i give him his choice of two lanes to bingo to. i like that OLIO sets up a spot for the W i might draw here (since he likely didn't keep it). still, quackle says it's a -2, and quackle is gospel. PBUH. -2 #strategysmall
wow, really misevaluated this one. NEEPS for 37 is definitely better. Quackle also prefers playing HEP L11 and EPH(A) J1. HERPES at 8J also a good move here. #strategysmall
No floating O for EXPONENT. My play is the tempting play to make. But for spread purposes, I should have done L10 NEXT as the simulation tells me his bingo % is literally 0 next turn. I should have done that. #visionlarge
I had a hunch that IMRT might hit more on this board than DIRT (D often ends words, so it's harder to hit the L column), but then told myself I was overthinking it and DIRT was a more standard bingo leave. DAB sims best and bingoes a bit more than BAM! I saw DIRAM which scores well and is a bit better for the board, but BT is quite problematic for the bingo %. #tacticssmall
This play wasn't great. I had the right idea by blocking him from potentially getting QI down for 64, but this actually gives him back something else. J10 AIT would have done that just fine without giving up a lot of points. #visionsmall
AVISO has the best equity, but the sim winners are exchanges, keeping AS, S, or IS. The board is very good for the S with (ADVECT)S, (BALANCER)S, and (QUOTA)S available. #tacticssmall
I didn't like my position after K8 SAnDBOY -> play on A12 for 40ish points, so I played this instead, but K8 SAnDBOY is fine and K8 DAYBOyS is 1 more point, maybe, I dunno. #strategysadder
I didn't love anything here out of all plays I saw- this, D12 D(R)AM for 20, J10 AM(I)D, and G1 DAM came to mind. I liked taking out the S hook for GESTAPOS with this, but the sim thinks it's too big a point sacrifice when I won't be up by much. I think DAM is a better play than DOLMA if I'm going to miss 11H MAT(E)D, which does beat out all those plays in the sim and on static equity. #visionmedium
I liked that I saw this play hoping he wouldn't see that METICAL is good, but 13B ME(S)TIZA is a more sound play, clearly best, and is 56 which was missed. #findinglarge
Right idea with the turnover and blocking the HUMPS hook. I will say that TURNIP is a worse play than it usually is because I should not be keeping 2 Os with 3 more usneen. While TURNIP isn't egregious, I should be looking to address my O problem while also blocking more indirectly with F2 UNROOT or even 4C UNROOF. #visionmedium
damn so it turns out A12 (F)LIC wins if I draw N or S, and I11 FLIC/FLIR or K11 ERIC win if I draw the S. I had like none time (left beef) on my clock by this point so i hadn't even tracked. also, #knowledgesad for letting FIES* go. #timesaddest #endgamesaddest
CHAMP seems like the word to play here, but which placement? There are so many. I think after Matthew's move I need to be making as few floaters as possible and definitely not a double-double line, making 9G CHAMP the best choice. #tacticssmall
Yea, the V is bad enough that 4 points isn't quite worth it to do this over L1 DRAV(E). ADM is that much more flexible than AV is on this board. #strategysmall
huge miss of SHEAFED, which I saw but chickened out of. Wasn't quite confident enough that there was a word in this. This is a huge 25-point mistake just as the momentum was turning in my favor. Maybe if I had but more thought into it and thought about SHEAFING. AEFGHINS looks potentially good. #knowledgeSADDEST
This isn't terrible since I'm not scoring much and it's definitely safer than F1 LILI(E)D. But the standout play is B2 NIT(R)ID(ED) which is worth it despite keeping the unfriendly LL combo. #visionlarge
N: L2 GIRRS gives me a better shot at drawing a blank, though I played N14 G(U) just to make it harder for my opponent to hit O8 bingos. #strategylarge
I did not know 4B S(C)ABLAND. Maybe B5 AB if I had to do this one over again as that's 10 more and now there's only so much I can do to block after VOCAL. #findingmedium
I think I saw 4A HOVER but otherwise rushed this play. D2 OVUM is best; it sets up plays in row 1 making NOVUM# but has the second-best equity behind D1 HOVE, which gives even more back? 4B MEVROU# and HOVE are also good plays. #strategysmall
I didn't think SEEMINGS was a word but IT IS. Anyway, since I can't block effectively, I have to play C1 (C)ZAR to outrun. FOR FUCK'S SAKE. #REEEEEEEEEEE #VISIONSADDEST
So Roman numeral 11 is good and Roman numeral 9 is not, as we already know. This position is deceptively bad because I only have HIT or HILT underneath VOX and neither of those plays keep good leaves. It is nice to be able to fork against Richard just because I need an open board against him, but H7 G(O)THIC cleans up the rack nicely and doesn't give as much back to him even though it scores 5 less. #findingmedium
I didn't see FETE in this spot, but I still liked keeping my other E for the GEMOTE hook to bingo. FETE would have still been a little better to score 8 more to dig for the blanks more. #visionmedium
I don't remember my exact leave here and I didn't record it because I was extremely low on time. This is just a guess since I know I had AEIIRST the next turn. Regardless, this is almost certainly incorrect. #strategylarge
Not bad. I'm glad I passed up 11D (I)NiTIATE since the Q is still unseen. I needed to see 11D (I)NTImATE since that takes out 2x2s through the XI and does not give back a QI bomb to him. Froilan is capable of scoring very well and has done so against me in the past. #visionmedium
i blocked my own DIASTOLE. OPINIONED is nice, i wish i'd thought of it. i did think of the hook earlier on. it seems like he is going to block much of the time if i do that. #tacticslarge
WEEDIER only plays in Collins! :( WEIRD might just give up too many points. JEWED or WIDEN sim better partially for that reason -- i also bingo slightly more often after JEWED. -2 #strategysmall
Q thinks I should play both FUNGOES and FAX over this. I didn't consider FAX strongly, but the board is REALLY bad for scoring if I play it, so there's a ton of defense value, plus the almost guaranteed bingo next turn. FuNGOES only drops my score by 22 in comparison with FOE, and drops his average by about 4. I think the dearth of scoring spots on the board should have led me away from playing FOE. #strategysmall
-0.5 i think, QUELEA lessens disaster racks next turn. i typically like taking Ys in triple lanes because they're good dumps of ugly letters for my opponents. #strategysmall
This is pretty good, but TEENIER 14B is even better, because it sets up QI in two places. UNIFIES 3H is also cool (I didn't see it) but I have to keep an I here. (-3) #visionsmall
This was one of my favorite positions. So much potential! I have SHY J8, HeY J6. PRY 5I. PERKY 9I. SHY J8 is right, and it wins the sim by a fair amount. My only regret is not seeing DEY 6H, keeping a much better leave. SH has synergy; DS has anti-synergy. -4 #strategysmall
This isn't bad, and I think this is fine to do over PAVIS to save scoring power. But 11H SPIV restricts Dustin's options more for the long haul and sets up my other S nicely which is not going to be easy for Dustin to block. I like that better. #findingsmall
the idea behind TAJ was drawing good letters for a bingo. I saw NATURAE# and chickened out. Had I seen TAUREAN# I think I would have vaguely remembered the pair and just played NATURAE# and probably won the game. #knowledgesaddest
almost fished the O for ATELIER/LAETRI(L)E unblockable or ELATERS/STEALER.
Fishing the O is .5 better for average spread than my play of SOLATE. The I, along with the A, is most likely to be in the bag given his last play of S(E)A. So fishing the O is best #tacticsmedium
Another terrible decision. I got spooked by his last play and was trying to find something that would work best against his range. It's not what I played. G3 UND(E)R(LI)T is a much better play with the same idea. Also probably better than this is just 6B Z(E) or some echange like Exch. DUNNT. Of those options, I like G3 UND(E)R(LI)T the best. It blocks a few spots while saving B6 and C9 Z plays. #findingsaddest
did not see the H hook on HUMP, and probably would not have known HUMPHS was valid. A play like HIE or HILI at 14L is a good idea here to set up a big lane #findingsmall #knowledgesmall
Missed two bingos here after he surprisingly blocked ANALYSTS K5. SATYRALS# and STAYSA(I)L. I have no excuse for the latter other than of course I would miss a Y bingo. This turn was also fascinating because I wondered how much the A improved my leave. If I play K9 SAY, I score 1 less, and don't block the triple. However, I understcored SAY by 2 in my head. Still, as somewhat expected, SAY is a much better play than SA(T)AY. I should have gathered that conclusion over the board. #findingsaddest #strategysad
it's more important here to keep a balanced leave; OOZE does that better despite giving up quite a bit more points. i also score a lot more after it than OOT. -3 #strategymedium
DOOZIE might be 6 more but I figured the odds of Rob having a B or W weren't great so might as well try to get back in it this way. This is 2nd behind DOOZIE. #tacticssmall?
I should've just passed, but I wasn't sure of the math after B8 TIRITIS -> G8 (G)EROnIMO, but it wins by 1. This loses 3/8 when the I is in the bag, except none of any of that matters since we miscounted the bag and it actually wins, but I didn't do a recount oops lmao. #STRATEGYSADDEST
This is one way to force the board open against him. He's not going to suspect that I am keeping an S. However, this was not a good time to make this specific play because I saw H7 G(A)RISHLY and talked myself out of it. #knowledgelarge
wow. CEROES* is phony. CERO is a fish, not the number ZERO. never knew that. REBEC is still the best play, but i can't find plays like that when i'm 1-5 no matter how positive i am. -1 #knowledgelarge #tacticssmall
Don't think I saw F6 EON somehow. It scores 6 more than OGEE and bingos roughly the same amount, making it several points of valuation better. #findingsmall