I suppose COLT isn't bad since there's not much to score in this position. CT? is actually not that bad leave after O4 TOT(HE)R, which I didn't spot, despite the open Gs as floaters even though 7s I play would open up good counterplay for Eric. I think either TOTHER or 7H TORC look slightly stronger. #findingsmall
6C DI #VISIONSADDEST Spoiler alert: thus begins a series of the most ridiculous fishes, serving absolutely no-one. Do not be like me, folks. I just clocked out at this point in the game and never actually hit my bingo.
or C(A)NTORIS, S(T)RONTIC seems too volatile, would much rather put a T in the 2x2 lane. Quackle obviously disagrees. This might be because S(T)RONTIC is a lot better for the board in the long run. #tacticssmall
This is probably not correct, but I was scared of X plays at 10N and I wanted to open a bingo line. Maybe I just need to play 8A MOU but it just seems like a feeble attempt. I dunno. #strategysad
sigh. i thought the U was likely to be in the bag, there's also an S and a blank to draw for (this late in the game, turnover does start to matter a tiny bit). additionally, this is also a bit of a blocking play, but not totally, it's easier to overlap cowiest in collins. but i was reasonably happy with this play, it puts me up by a lot and there's a decent chance i can unload the Q next turn for some points as well. C3 Q(A)T only sims a little better, but the best simmer is 2A OWT! maybe it's ok to keep the Q for now and play shorter? after all 2A OWT scores only 7 fewer than COWIEST but keeps the S. damn. -6 #strategymedium
lucky pull from AEEIT. I misevaluated this position, I thought he would bingo a lot more after TEATIMES than MEATIEST, but it's only a tiny bit more, and he scores over 2.5 more on average after MEATIES, presumably cause of C and E column overlaps, which are also bingo lanes that balance out the TEA 8s lanes, making MEATIEST only barely more bingo defensive. I am more focused on bingo defense here, but it's such a tiny difference in bingo% I should just play TEATIMES. #tacticssmall
BIRO at 4I sims so much better, partly because of the leave, but also because BROOK gives up significantly more pts. i thought i had a strong chance of playing BROOKITE next turn. -9.5 #strategylarge
This was my second-worst mistake of the tournament. I saw multiple winning plays, including C1 RAT, which is tied for best. I was devastated when I noticed my phony. My thought process was something like this:
[on Dennis's turn] I see C1 RAT, that scores 19. Oh, I see 7F TAR making T(OHO)#, that scores 20.
[Dennis plays MOYL#] ok, Dennis keeps EST, where does that go? Oh, does STERNING# take the S? L3 EST would score 27. I should block. M2 INTRA# for 13 looks like my best block. [I set INTRA on board] Where else does EST go? Oh, he has 3A S(I)TE making S(HOVING), that scores 24. [I put tiles back on rack] [after calculation] INTRA wins by 1 after SITE ... RAT blocks, but it ties after EST, and I am unwilling to challenge ... TAR outruns EST by 1 point and SITE by 4 points, so if STERNINGS is phony, TAR is theoretically better than INTRA.
[I play TAR and hit clock] Oh no, I just played RAB*. #endgamelarge (-35)
This setup is too easily blocked and while L6 (L)I(M)E can also be fairly easily blocked, it keeps a much better leave to hit to other open lines. #strategysaddest
Tied for best play with 11F ELONGATE scorewise. Seeing the board is open as is, I might as well get others going. This was held but not challenged. #tacticssmall
i didn't think making dinky two-tile plays was gonna get me very far here (10F FA). i wanted to at least semi-block a lame lane (the L column). i didn't spot 2L O(V)UM which i like quite a bit. i also didn't spot 10I FOUL. that's better than FOAM for sure. i think i didn't look there too hard because it wasn't a double word score? lame. -4.5 #visionmedium
although this game is not realistically winnable, i can get some spread back by continuing to fish, for example, H12 BELT is just a couple points below but it keeps a much better leave. i partially thought GLOTTALS* was good. -5 #strategymedium #knowledgemedium
Keep the L. The fact that the pool is consonant-heavy doesn't merit playing a guaranteed consonant for one point. Actually K5 SPILITE is best; ??SSS are unseen and my leave after JIHADI isn't that great. #strategymedium
M6 NE(T)ES or 5A SEEN would be exponentially better than weird desperation out-play (especially when it has a valid, playable anagram) #endgamesaddest #timesaddest
This has best equity, but 6J N(O)NG# wins a close sim, in front of 6J N(O)G and G(O)N#. CON keeps GN for (TOADY)ING and sets up a lane for -ING bingos on column M, but I guess keeping a flexible leave is more important than points on this board, and with the S, I have all the bingo lanes I need. #tacticssmall I guess
10G G(O)WD doesn't win often. i bingo rarely with that fairly ugly pool. neither does M11 GAWPS, but that one wins at least a little more often because of going for the Z or something. -12 #strategylarge
14B for 2 more since IIRTT isn't doing much with an open I. Or if I'm not going to do that, even YTTRIA is better since that cleans that rack better. #strategymedium
UP/PHI over this mostly because of my next turn's leave, which Q thinks is really good after UP but bad after CHIRP. This is a bit too much disparity, cause it's probably keeping CERT type leaves that are really not good on this board. Still, I'm at a deficit, so keeping better bingo options is good. I could also do P(RE)CURE, which opens the board more nicely. I think UP or PRECURE should come down. #tacticssmall
damn didn't see PROMPT! that looks better here. #findingmedium also not much inspiration on this exchange, I guess it's fine? not much scoring power with PR so I wasn't a huge fan, same w the X
i should have played QUEUER (i wasn't 101% on it). i didn't want to give up an easy high scoring S hook. but it's important to balance my rack. -5.5 #tacticsmedium #knowledgesmall
I immediately miss one of the three extensions of QUATE, ADEQUATE. This is pretty terrible. I only saw TORQUATE and COEQUATE when playing QUATE. Last turns' slight mistake snowballs into a much larger mistake on turn 2. #findinglarge
oh man, gotta get better about finding those parallel plays. 9G ANOINT fits perfectly and is very clearly best. i thought TANTO didn't even take an S. #findingmedium -5
I have like 0% chance of winning. With L11 SIEGE at least I can prioritize reaching 300 sometime this century. But, like, it's the case S. I'm feeling greedy. Also I forgot to look on that side of the board. #strategysaddest ? #visionsaddest ALSO #knowledgesad for challenging a 3. May or may not have been a "stop closing down the board for the love of god" challenge, but my lips are sealed
quackle doesn't like moves like this, trying to "end the game faster". i was mostly going for some of those goodies, like the S or the third blank (the Z). but a V leave sucks. V(E)ENA at K2 is awesome and it blocks the R in case she has some crazy bingo. -13 #strategylarge #focus
Completely tanked on this move. I didn't even consider keeping the U, which might led me to G12 (M)EG or G10 UN(M)ET. The metrics I used for this turn were off, I was too focused on dumping the U, so #strategylarge.
i can smell that X setup from a mile away, Josh. YACK is the obvious play here, but when you infer an X, 10D DAM goes up to the top. there is a lot more C-K synergy so CAM is not right here. -5.5 #tacticsmedium
I put down CRAVATS and SHTETL, saw that it gave back WAI, and then did HEST instead. #knowledgesaddest for CRAVATE this entire game #timesaddest for this entire game
pretty bad miss of AC(T)OR. (FE)M M1 hits bingos with a D, S, U and V and also Quackle wants me to play SCORIA 15A next turn a lot which I will never do, so M1 (FE)M has the best valuation. #findingmedium
N10 FEERIN and N10 FINEER sim best which seems reckless but plays parallel to N10 FREON can score a lot, so I think they are slightly better. #strategysadder
there it is; missing PETITORY# is unacceptable. but i know literally 3 csw words. #knowledgelarge -27 also i should block the 14F spot with NOY if i'm going to play those letters (i thought of BEZ too, but the Z at 14F would be worse).
Would've been funny if I played my other choice of 2B URP because then I could say "Your play: URP" - I somehow missed 2D PRURIENT. Pretty lazy. #findinglarge
I think if I'm looking to block off some bingoes with the WILTS hook, a better way of going about it is to do J3 gORGE(T)ED because DEROGATE takes an S and a D. I didn't spot GORGETED, and it's also more defensive overall. #findingsmall
LOL this is phony! jeez... i remember thinking it looked a little funny, but i was pretty dejected by my record, lol. but even now i thought it was fine. #knowledgelarge
I had seen the 9 before Josh played ADOPT, but then spent way too long trying to find a decent bingo on Column M. There aren't really any that don't allow comeback plays on column N. I saw that TROILUSES was vulnerable to X plays, but if he didn't draw one after ADOPT, I like my chances. The sim winner here is OUtSETS M9, but I'm skeptical. (-4?) #strategymedium
could not find a play to make here. IMP 8C looks best, and I also missed I6 KIT which is simple. This sucks but at least I have a chance of being able to shut the board down after this, but IMP is just superior #findingsmall
Was convinced that it's spelled WILEY* #knowledgesad also #knowledgesaddest for not playing more Hyperspace Hooks IDK maybe 10D (D)IV here? I wanna get rid of my R
This isn't terrible since I'm not scoring much and it's definitely safer than F1 LILI(E)D. But the standout play is B2 NIT(R)ID(ED) which is worth it despite keeping the unfriendly LL combo. #visionlarge
Saw the best play a bit too late. Sadly. Can you find it? It scores 27 points.
This pre is otherwise complicated. DETOXING can happen and win whenever. I don't want to play more than 3 tiles because 4-tile plays by him make me have to play 3 (or hopefully 2) to not empty. I chose this because I can then play HE at 6F or M3 next turn if he plays 4 and maybe hold on. #findinglarge
I8 SPOOL looks a little better. NORSS doesn't even bingo more than NRS and is much higher variance, plus SPOOL creates another S hook I can use. #strategysmall