...but K9 AENEOUS blocks 15H (I)MPAINTS and does not set up O6 PITMANS. Rough. I chose (S)PIMS# to set up another high-scoring bingo lane, but N2 PANIM# scores 52 and is too many points to pass up. After PANIM#, Dennis can play on column O, killing the last bingo lane, but I still have a chance if I can draw the Q and play it at 14J. #strategylarge
This move actually sims quite well despite it being poor on static equity. There's only 2 As left for her to be able to play on top of the G, and if she plays below the G with the numerous Is that are still unseen, I can actually play underneath and make the board harder for her to play on. That said, I can see N2 CLAW being better since it's 8 more and it still effectively takes out Column M. #findingsmall
veratrin takes an E as well as an S. but that's a tiny number of the unseen tiles. maybe just take the points? would you? i suppose if i'm playing someone better i should try to make it a bit more volatile. -2 #strategysmall
Exch. CDFGL is better. I held the F because of the F10 F spot if I hit an E, and also the D9 spot -- those aren't good enough, unfortunately. #strategysad
RIP, completely forgot to consider AHOLDS being valid, which I knew. SMUGGER wins. I made some insane calculation that this would tie if she saw (YE)TI 12A setting up (N)IDI and I blocked with G(I) D14, but she was low on time and I hoped that wouldn't be found. Quackle can't even find that sequence because it's so weird (and just flat-out wrong). Somehow didn't think of NIDI first. Oops. Also, just (YE)GG which I didn't have time to calculate wins as well, since she can't block oMeRS and go out in two and will lose by at the least 1 point! If she blocks the 3rd and 1st row with ID 1K, I win after (WIZ)aRdS and M(E) F14 since she isn't going out. Horrible miss on my part to finish a crazy game. If I play QUERYING first here, she can play I1 D(O) and just outrun me. #findingsaddest #endgamesaddest
It's good that I saw a play in this area of the board, and I would certainly favor playing more tiles here. A better version of this play is E7 T(E)NET for 7 more. Also not the easiest to spot. #visionmedium
i spent literally about 7 minutes on this move. i saw almost all the top possibilities, but for some reason really hated M(A)VIN. i also was not a big fan of BOVID, blowing the board wide open for no reason. i should just be more systematic. is BROMID keeping NV really that much better than scoring 6 fewer, but keeping an ok leave of BDO and not giving up a potentially giant scoring spot? i didn't see MO(R)BID (need to learn my 6s - anagram pairs) and i might have played it if i'd seen it; it sims almost as well as MAVIN. -4.5 #strategymedium
I could go the total opposite direction with 3L ERUV but that seemss very dump considereing the pool. I missed VIRU(S) which at least sheds the terrible U tile, but this was more defensive than anything else besides WIVER, and I thought the R was a bit better to keep. Seems better to play WIVER #tacticssmall
must have missed M(U)GG, obv better. I didn't like that this also closes the option of opening the top left later on, GRIM opens this marginal G line but prevents me from doing a good setup there later. #findingmedium
I need to lose by less than 257 to win the tournament. Losing by 257 exactly is a tie. This sets up an OUTVENOM extension that I didn't see for the whole game. 8H ENMOVE is slightly better. #findingsad
I panicked here. Massively.
I didn't know what the standings were, I just knew I had to play a valid word to secure the win. I also wanted to play the endgame well. I saw (S)PURGALL and briefly wondered if I could be making it up. I tried to see what his highest-scoring play was, but with seconds to go I could only see 15, which would tie the game, but I couldn't be sure. Had I been aware of the standings, I would have played the bingo!
#endgamelarge
8G TAKING has the best equity. I was leery of giving up an extra bingo lane, easier sevens lanes, and a chance to hook TAKING while using a DWS, which is why I chose KIANG; but I should also be concerned with keeping two T's. #strategysmall
ROT is a T setup, but it's actually a QATS setup. if i infer EST for him (reasonable, although HAH doesn't necessarily imply the S, he did play it fast enough), YEW does a little better than before, but still not as well as M9 WANEY - i need to keep a better leave. i wasn't ultra worried because the bag is very slightly consonant heavy but still i may have overreacted here. -3 #strategysmall
I'm not sure if I have to hope the S is still in the bag or try to block. I seem pretty lost if he has the S, so O10 OUTIE is probably fine here. #strategysaddest
M13 N(O)R and other similar plays such as K13 R(A)N and D13 (E)RN are probably the saddest top simming plays I have ever seen. I should have recognized that I need a huge Q bingo to hope to win the game, so despite the sadness, I would have to agree with Quackle. #STRATEGYSADDEST
10D RIFE would have been fine, EIN is overall better than just I. But then I make Libero have to outrun me and I take out a high scoring bingo lane. #strategymedium
O5 VIO(L) I have some good lines through the A on column D and on row 11 under the I, which are hard to block without giving something back. This seems a little reckless because it's making the board better for Elise than for me since I'm not keeping an A or O. #strategysad
Huge mistake. Probably my biggest of this tournament. I didn't realize 1) How many bingos were in the pool starting with PE and ending with some IN pattern and 2) That I could most likely outrun these scenarios. I was concerned about a refish after I made a play like K2 QAD(I) and only wanted to give him one shot. I just assumed the bingos would score too much and that I would always lose. A play like J3 DA(F)TLY is really strong here keeping 1 in the bag and saving QI. #strategysaddest
I did not see 4A CELE(BRANT) here. That's a cool one and the aggression is mandatory at this deficit. Maybe E4 BELL if I don't spot CELEBRANT? #visionlarge
ok, so back when he played REARMING i immediately thought "don't forget the P hook" and was looking for a P all game. right after JAYS played, i realized that i missed KEET, and that BIDE was never a bingo fish. you can imagine my brain immediately short circuiting. what happened? this was the last game of the morning. was i hungry? THIS whole game right here is why i'm not coming close to winning nationals unless i change something, and even though i now know that it is my focus that needs help, actually getting to that deeply focused state requires so much effort (for me) that it is insanely difficult. i pulled it off to a small extent at lake george (and still made a bunch of silly mistakes), but i haven't been practicing. what is my POET even doing; i'm going to let him score a bunch off the P, and i'm not even setting up a hopeful S hook. i seem very undeserving of a 2000 rating when i make mistakes like this, which explains why i'm almost never there. -19 #strategySADDEST #focusworst
I did see HERNIA in the same spot as HEN and deliberated the 2 moves for a while. A play like ONO doesn't tell me he's keeing a scoring leave. The sim tells me that I average only 2 points more at an 8 point sacrifice, so accordingly, I should have gone with HERNIA. Maybe this is a reasonable adjustment after his last play, but generally speaking, I should just take the points and not play scared since the top left of the board will be opened eventually. #strategymedium
No idea what got into me here...I was sure there was some CSW-only variation of BLOTCH. I don't think I was confusing this with BLENCH, so I wonder how I got my wires crossed. #knowledgelarge
decided exactly at this moment to worry about that big ass Z spot *and* that SCRAY is a word (told myself it wasnt). gotta find C10 DECAY #strategysaddest or at the very least do DRAY instead
wow didn't consider L1 JAWL(I)NE! it's nice to not open the O column. I think I prefer it by a bit, setting up the scoring spot is okay as well with my lead. #visionsmall
This is just horrible. I need FEAT for guaranteed future scoring, and I'm giving that away for some OUT bingos, some column m junk, and some duplication? I thought there were more As in the pool (I mistracked and had to retrack later) but still, just, no. Something like AHI, otoh, may very well be worth it. Definitely want this play back, and I even identified how bad this play was immediately after the game. #strategylarge
after an entire game of overestimating my position, here is a turn where I seem to have grossly underestimated it. I played TI(X) because I decided I probably needed to bingo to win the game. I felt like (V)ITA would allow him to block the 15 row, and then I would have basically nowhere to bingo (barring occasional 1 row bingoes). TI(X) leaves the 1 row as well as the A column, so given a blocking play may end up bingoing more than VITA. however, if I play VITA, he cannot easily block, since I will be in a position to outscore. all the vita blocks are pretty low scoring, so I think I can easily afford to play it. In a sim, VITA bingoes way more than TIX, which indicates the A at 15a is a good lane for me, and it may stay open quite often. The bingo draws on row 1 after TIX are: HR, HS, ES, AS, ID, GS, HS, IR, and RS. given random draws these happen 24/240, so 10% of the time. My position after VITA is surely better than that given the difficulty of blocking the lane while outrunning (just in a 2 ply sim Q has me bingoing 22%). This feels like a strategic error because I did not properly consider the future options after VITA, assuming that a block was inevitable. #strategylarge
another poor decision. I felt I had a larger grasp on this game than in actuality. I should play 8L (O)OZE for more and leave the R open
not challenging last move was #knowledgelarge
this move is #tacticsmedium
Missed the sweet (F)O(D)GEL. I am not in a good position, but any board opening play I can make will just get outrun too easily. FODGEL is a better version of this plsy. #visionmedium
Yeah i don't think i have any wins here. I had hoped going out first might help the most but idek. championship player likes 10E (R)OO fwiw #endgamesaddest also #knowledgesad for challenge
8F TREZ is better equity and bingos more too, despite RZ? being 8 better statically. i didn't even generate it because I was too busy hanging on to the Z #findingsad
put some thought into D4 BARITE to clamp down on the position but I'm not up by enough. Didn't see B(A)KER for 2 more, and it's compounded by there being a ton of unseen E's, making AIT a better leave than EIT here. Thought there was a small chance of a challenge here, but not enough. #findingsmall
I put down CRAVATS and SHTETL, saw that it gave back WAI, and then did HEST instead. #knowledgesaddest for CRAVATE this entire game #timesaddest for this entire game
Yea, the V is bad enough that 4 points isn't quite worth it to do this over L1 DRAV(E). ADM is that much more flexible than AV is on this board. #strategysmall
Held this for a while. Really shoulf have let this go. Absolutely fucking terrible. I didnt know it, but i had INJURIES in respone, not to mention that he obviously has ovations anyway. #knowledgesaddest
playing the bingo here wasn't at all a given. Z(E)NDO was also a consideration, but with two S's out, I felt my chances were quite poor in comparison to IRONIZED, which at least keeps more scoring spots open. However, I missed Z(E)ROED 14J, which definitely takes the cake here. Really poor playfinding, as I did everything necessary to find the right play and still missed it. #findingmedium
11C DIB is best, blocking the J. 12C VEG is second, with the same idea and the best equity. I suppose ABDER doesn't become a bingo often on this board. #tacticssmall