N: I missed every single valid bingo after i did the correct thing last turn because i forgot that IDS existed and I don't know 3A (O)VERmANS and 3A (O)VERSmAN #visionsaddest #knowledgesaddest
Drawing OOO killed any chance I had of winning this game. C2 APO has the best valuation; it blocks Carl's next play, and the pool is consonant-heavy, so I don't have to worry about keeping five vowels on my rack. #tacticslarge
Shitty attempt at blocking O6 bingos. I did not think about the IER, IES, IED bingos that still fit after N10 GRE(Y). I was considering N8 TIGER(Y) but I thought that gave too many O7 possibilities back. N8 TIGER(Y) is slightly better than this at blocking bingos. Blocking the ELKS hook seemed forced to me at the time, but 15M GUE is best. #STRATEGYSADDEST
this was the ugliest play I've made in a long time. A better version of this would be VUG(H) to the H, which, again, I never saw. 3 misses in a row #findingsmall
Absolutely insane. To make matters worse, despite slowing down for a half a minute to look for row 9 overlaps, I somehow fail to spot PLATIEs for 3 more. This time, creating the X and Z bomb spot at 10F is somewhat contemptible, seeing as Quackle cannot quickly decide if it likes sacrificing the 3 points or not. PARTIbLE has some decent control. I can see attempting to close things off within 3 moves or so after PARTIbLE. After PLATIEs, not as much, since the R and S of MATADORS and the E and R of ROILIER aren't very intuitive to deal with without opening new threats, despite their closeness. Furthermore, the P on B9 can always be used to make desparate forking plays. Still, I rate this as yet another mistake. #findingsmall
FAIL or FAIR because I don't give back any 9s! UNGUARDED, UNDERHAND, UNADORNED, UNFOUNDED, UNDERFUND, UNROUNDED, UNDERHUNG play. (L)ONGHEAD still plays regardless #strategylarge
It does give me a good bingo %, but the exchange was not worth it. 10F ZLOTY was missed and is certainly worth it because it gives me a juicy S hook that's not easy for Beth to block. The duck's blood pressure has increased. #findinglarge
MIND 12K is great. why did i create such a GIANT SPOT for no reason?? just 3 more points?? incomprehensibly bad, how do i stop making these errors? i quit. -4.5 #strategylarge
N5 DUELLI is beautiful. DILUTE isn't that great. it actually slightly raises his bingo percentage, even though i'm trying to block an easy 7 lane. -3 #findingmedium #knowledgemedium #strategymedium
not sure enough of BLAWED (and i really should be because i know BLAW is a verb, but maybe its only past tense is BLAWN, who knows). but whatever, this wins. -9 #knowledgelarge
Omg...I missed a really cool idea here. I did not see that I could have made BRAIDINGS, which is valid, with G7 CAB. That sets up an S hook that will be extremely difficult for Evan to block and it keeps additional lanes in MANSIONS open. #visionlarge
i thought i had a better chance of drawing the X if i just bingo now. the worst thing is that ELEPIDOTE is not available because i have the last two Es. quackle thinks I should do 15L DUPE or PULE which i considered. maybe i draw the X, use it, and bingo the following turn?? -7 #strategymedium. honestly i don't know how to compare the two plays.
13G M(E)WL has the best equity and wins a close sim. I played LAW to set up a high-scoring bingo lane, but it keeps four consonants and gives Dennis a scoring spot. Row 15 and column L are all the lanes I need. Oh, and M(E)WL would block Dennis's bingo. #strategymedium
oh my god what am i doing this is not a word. i wanted to play K12 JEEP for the longest time but couldn't stomach it because of the E hook (???) and the more obvious I hook. 3A QUA is fine here. #knowledgelarge
N: L2 GIRRS gives me a better shot at drawing a blank, though I played N14 G(U) just to make it harder for my opponent to hit O8 bingos. #strategylarge
-3.5 to the pretty aggressive 10A OGIVAL. but i shoulda spotted VOILA or GAVOT. remember that the meow meow was not in full effect after my round 2 loss. I had to reset myself after the early bird and start over, and it wasn't until the next day that i achieved good focus again! #findingmedium
I considered sim-winners OE/AEON 7K, but it seemed like Will would be able to control the board after that, whereas OXO ensured that I would have a place for my bingo if I drew one. Quackle says this gives up too much. (-7) #strategymedium
ROT is a T setup, but it's actually a QATS setup. if i infer EST for him (reasonable, although HAH doesn't necessarily imply the S, he did play it fast enough), YEW does a little better than before, but still not as well as M9 WANEY - i need to keep a better leave. i wasn't ultra worried because the bag is very slightly consonant heavy but still i may have overreacted here. -3 #strategysmall
Will: Didn't notice that OUTVAUNT plays at 14F. There's already a gigantic S hook on the board so making another one isn't quite the same problem it would normally be, and OUTVAUNT doesn't open a 9x lane for Josh. #findingsmall #strategysmall
9H HUP, the sim winner, is extremely defensive, allowing Orry an average of only 16 points next turn; but I don't like that it keeps the F. I like POUFS because it unloads FU and sets up the H at 8L. Although a play like K7 FACTA would make the spot hard to use. #tacticssmall
tough call here. I liked TWO(S)OME some but the S hook is more risk than I'd like to take here. LOW, MOW, and LOWE are all interesting. She averages a bit more after LOW cause of the E hook, but it's close. I average most after LOW, ELOT isn't very good generally or here. LOWE might be the best medium between them, I score more on average next turn than after MOW and only sacrifice one point. Her average is about the same after each play. #tacticssmall
GAWSY crossed my mind here but I didn't want to take a risk - thought HYE would run the score up to where I could outrun a lot of bingos. I'll give myself a blanket #knowledgelarge here to cover the rest of the game for not knowing CASTLINGS for sure.
and how stupid to see CONIINES and know it has an anagram, see this, and not take a bit of time to make sure this was it... I've messed this up before too. I knew the anagram didn't take an S, but this ain't it. Wow. #knowledgeSADDEST
O12 U(P) and 4K U(T) win the sim, giving me a 6% chance of winning while everything else is less than 5%. I think the sim assumes Rasheed will sometimes play on row 2 making H(EW), after which I can play a bingo making W(HEW) and scoring 109 or more if I draw any of ?AFHLR. Never in my WILDEST dreams would Rasheed do that. F13 (G)U# is another option, setting up a lane on row 15 that Rasheed will surely block. WUD has the best equity. #tacticsmedium I guess
fishing is less often right in collins. i probably missed ZE and THIEF, although i did think of ZE in other turns. HOMY is probably ok too. -6 #findingmedium
Should probably play it safer with 14F JU(N). For me to score 2 more now but let him average 6 more next turn is not quite worth it if he has high-scoring parallels. #strategysmall
I seriously considered playing 1A WAZ(O)OING* before deciding that it was more likely that the blank was in the bag and I could draw it to win than WAZOOING* being a word. This isn't actually the best play. C1 ZO(A) saves 1A WA(ZO)O and wins about 50% of the time as opposed to this which wins about 30% of the time. #endgamelarge
the best play here is an awesome setup, I12 E(V)E. This sets up ZA J14 and if I draw one of the 6 remaining I's, I get ZI(N)GY K5 as backup (or front-up, depending on position)
TE(N)GE is also better at K5. I don't think I ever saw GHAUT. Wanted this over GAZE for 1 more so inhibit L-column plays down the line that open up annoying parts of the board
#tacticslarge
I tanked for a long time just to play this. Sad! Sim says 9F SAIN, which looks way better. I was trying to block row 9 bings and column N bings, but I give back row 15 bings which is asinine. #strategysaddest
i'm pretty sure i saw EE, and thought keeping STEEN was fine. i don't like Os that much. it's kinda shocking to me that EE sims so much better at 7H, but i guess it also doesn't give back some big pts. yeah, i shoulda done that. -11 #strategylarge
I really just need to play off the X. Just gotta find my 9s. If he bingos with BOWS or BOWL, I get N(AT)ROLITE with an I or L, I get R(AT)TOONED, and with Y or S, I get (AT)TORNEYS. With an M, TORMENT(Or). And then there are the overlaps of whatever bingo Jon would play on row 13. Still, I do insta-lose after some bingos. X(ED) 13B is the alternative, setting up a new lane. There's only one E left. Even if Jon plays on the A column, I will usually win after an out-bingo. If he gets something huge like FILMIER A8 for 101, he will be at 439, with a full rack and an empty bag. If I draw the Y, I get ATTORNEYs for 94 and 14 from Jon, winning with a 455. If I draw a bingo on row 13 like TONNERs, I'm scoring 72 and getting 20, tying with a 439. That's at the upper end of bad for me. However, if Jon doesn't bingo immediately, the same will then apply for my bingos on the A column. So it gets kind of dicey. Still, it's a very interesting option. This one, OX, runs into some bad draws, with only a 2/3 chance at best of a bingo. Playing just the X off is more like a 75% chance. This does block a bit, and his bingos will actually open a lane after this, which is why I chose it. But this was a scared play. Could have really gone badly for me. #strategylarge
weird spot. I saw 4G EE(R)IE which has the best equity by a longshot. I decided against it for reasons. Those reasons are pretty frivolous, but I thought I could control this board I think. But EKE is also a fish, so if I bingo where is the control? I dunno. This is a huge sacrifice so I hope I'm not crazy. #strategymedium
Really tough spot here. FUME F10 was my first instinct, and then I deferred from that thinking about the board long-term, etc. MIME H12 scored the most and set up a lane for later, but I think I overreacted here by trying to keep the bottom untouched. #strategysmall
now a complete miss of TROO(Z). I hated this move, and I should have kept looking instead of tilting. One-two punch and maybe I can no longer win this game #findingmedium
had mistracked an L I think, so I didn't know if QUITE was going to give something huge back. It was either that or it was better than QUIET. -2 #endgamesmall