Finding Medium
13B UMBO +21
Too aggressive and open here...M3 ZOMBIS is fine to score, but 7G UMBO is also better score, more defensive, and does just as good a job of saving scoring potential. #findingmedium
Judy Rosenthal vs. Samuel Kaplan (Game 36865)
Strategy Large
E9 (PO)H +16
Either I play 14M HI and fish for DIsCARD or 14L CHID and try to cut the spread. Either way, I played too scared and tried to stop my opponent from bingoing. #STRATEGYLARGE
Felix Kwok vs. Nitya Chagti (Game 40885)
Tactics Small
11H MEOW +36
I didn't like 11I MOW because it didn't give me an S hook, but I still bingo so much more since 8s are a thing. I could just do DOW if that bothers me so much. #tacticssmall
Michael Fagen vs. Josh Sokol (Game 35777)
Tactics Large
14D (F)OO +15
Drawing OOO killed any chance I had of winning this game. C2 APO has the best valuation; it blocks Carl's next play, and the pool is consonant-heavy, so I don't have to worry about keeping five vowels on my rack. #tacticslarge
Alec Sjoholm vs. Carl Johnson (Game 34514)
Strategy Large
5C GID +29
H1 GANEF; let's keep some good leaves, open boards, and score. GID keeps an inflexible leave for next turn and i will struggle a bit more to score. -10 #strategylarge
Cesar Del Solar vs. Joey Mallick (Game 32732)
Finding Medium
14I NIDATE +35
this seemed like a decent block, but it could backfire. DILATE is a little harder to underlap (LA LI LO vs NA NE NO NU with the blanks as vowels), and there are two Ns left. -3 #findingmedium
Cesar Del Solar vs. John Karris (Game 35441)
Strategy Large
11D RUNE +16
very hard to analyze a move like this. i need macondo to have inferencing. many moves here would look dumb in retrospect. of course my move looks terrible; i laid down FER/RUGAE first but FERE being good makes that bad. in the end i thought this would make his bingos less likely (i was inferring an S, but that's definitely not necessary). details window shows RUNE still gives up a few more bingos than RUGAE, but the "best" play is GENUA in the same spot, even though it gives up the most bingos. maybe it just really needs me to bingo back. #strategylarge
Wes Eddings vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 39994)
Strategy Small
1A YAM +32
lots of things are close here. I should probably play longer and leave more promising tiles with J4 TRYMA. The K column will probably get opened regardless. #strategysmall
Josh Sokol vs. Eric Goldstein (Game 43955)
Finding Small
11K AZAN +36
now, CZA(R) 4G is important to find. I can also just play CA(V)A, not sure how I missed that one. I knew this was a terrible move, but for some reason I just couldn't find anything else. #findingSAD
Keith Hagel vs. Josh Sokol (Game 45146)
Tactics Small
11D UVUL(A)E +18
perhaps L2 OVULE instead? This was a stylistic choice to try and limit the left side as much as possible. After a play comes down at 12A though, who knows if I can keep it up. #tacticssmall`
Cesar Del Solar vs. Josh Sokol (Game 32713)
Tactics Medium
H7 L(A)RNT +13
mistake here. LAR is simming best, and then LARN. i really should have played LARN, but i became afraid because the pool is pretty consonant heavy (21V 31C and a blank). surprised LAR is best. IRS just doesn't bingo enough. -4.5 #tacticsmedium
Joey Mallick vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 32698)
Knowledge Large
5E A(R)BOURS +36
i'm too much of a perfectionist, once i saw that i missed this bingo i felt bad. i think it's my only bingo miss of the tournament, but it's annoying because i wrote AABORRSU and i checked that i've both gotten and missed this word a few times when studying. the alphagram didn't really look familiar, and it's a hard word, but if one wants to win nationals, one has to find BAROSAUR here. #knowledgeSADDEST
Cesar Del Solar vs. Jeff Cook (Game 39955)
Strategy Small
14F BU(R)ET +22
Very tricky move. I desperately wanted to keep ET together here to play down column O with RE and ST; drawing the H or M would be great if I could find a way to keep EET here. However, I also have to worry about being outrun if I take too small of a score here. For that reason, I felt the best compromise was BURET; I did also consider BUTEO, which appears to be a smidge better according to sim/CP, but it's not because it performs better defensively by covering the O1 triple; it's because I score 4 more points on my next turn with BUTEO than BURET. A little bit of that is because BUTEO occasionally draws bingos at the bottom of the board, which BURET blocks; the rest of it is that keeping EEL works better with the O12 spot than ELO. For example, if I draw HT or MT, I get my big play down there after BUTEO, but need more help after BURET. #strategysmall 4:26
Will Anderson vs. Robert Linn (Game 33409)
Vision Large
5C CHIAO +33
I briefly thought about doing 5C OHIA or 5C CIAO as well as this, but those gave up too many points, and I still have Columns C and D to use. J2 OHO would have also been an interesting move setting up my C, however, I'm still not likely to win this game. And that's the hardest for Robin to block. #visionlarge #strategylarge
Samuel Kaplan vs. Robin Lewis (Game 37151)
Strategy Small
14B RESOW +40
SEROW wins the sim instead. I would have thought that slating the R (the first R, at that) would be less dangerous than an S, and harder to parallel besides, but I guess not. Or maybe SEROW is better precisely because it's easier to parallel, taking out the lane. (-1) #strategysmall
Kenji Matsumoto vs. Carl Johnson (Game 32845)
Finding Small
12K (E)NDEW +26
Quackle likes 12H AWEEL#, the second-highest-scoring play, which compensates for the 3-point sacrifice by setting up 14H INDIE. #findingsmall
Chris Grubb vs. Alec Sjoholm (Game 37358)
Strategy Large
14M WE(B) +16
I wasn't sure if LEW(D) G5 would always outrun H1 plays, but it does just barely get the job done. This can lose to NO(C)T(U)RIAS if I leave the A in the bag. I only calculated RE(C)A(U)TION, which also loses when the A is in the bag. I transposed letters when thinking about the draws and didn't recognize this. Had I seen that drawing EY wouldn't necessarily win, I would have gone with LEW(D) #strategySADDEST
Jason Broersma vs. Josh Sokol (Game 48399)
Strategy Medium
J4 CUIF +16
i hated the leave of J9 OH. i probably have no choice. i thought i would open a bit, keep a better leave, and keep OH for next turn, but i guess CUIF just doesn't score enough. -5.5 #strategymedium
Lisa Odom vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 33680)
Knowledge Large
N10 CL(O)ON +0 (Lost challenge)
and I lost the game on this turn again by missing VANPOOL. This is where I think I stopped analysis last time. #knowledgesaddest #findingsaddest
Josh Sokol vs. Liz Gottlin (Game 39720)
Knowledge Small
1K ERODE +25
yeahhh wasn't really sure of SICE, that's bad. ERODE is pretty good if I will play SICE next turn, but she also has an S a lot of the time and may take the spot. #knowledgesmall
Jackson Smylie vs. Julia Bogle (Game 33121)
Tactics Small
3I C(U)RVE +26
Keeping the G for 13C, but CURVET is better; though it sets up a high-scoring S-hook on O3, there are already high-scoring S-hooks available. Quackle prefers 4H VENGE, but given the board I don't like it as much. Honorable mention goes to 13B EGRET, which sets up my R with only one unseen; Quackle doesn't seem to consider it. #tacticssmall
venge 30
curvet 29.4
verged 27.7
curve 27.3
Alec Sjoholm vs. Matt Canik (Game 33073)
Strategy Small
J12 N(E)W +14
there are too many unseen Ts to make this move. i knew this at the time and knew i needed to get lucky, but that's asking to get too lucky. 10M AWN keeps the same leave and gives me a chance to come back... but he's never going to let me have that. so i don't know. maybe H4 WEN or L1 WRENS? WRENS seems like my type of move here actually. got too frustrated. -1.5 #focus #strategysmall
Cesar Del Solar vs. Jack Norman (Game 35157)
Finding Large
3A JAK(E) +30
I missed that I had VAC and VEERY. JOKE is therefore better to leave that, but COV(E) or CAV(E) is a fantastic idea to set myself up for 66 #findinglarge
Paul Holser vs. Josh Sokol (Game 37365)
Finding Large
9B VE(R)T(U)S +26
4J V(IN) is the V fish I just missed. I also missed STILB(I)TE fwiw. I also missed SLITT(I)ER fwiw. But mostly I just missed V(IN) which is just dreadful. #findinglarge
50% chance I draw the R, perhaps there's a universe in which I get that down. Also VI(R)T(U)S is just better? Why did I miss that?
Robert Goetz vs. Josh Sokol (Game 35862)
Tactics Large
C3 QI +25
wow this is awful! I def overestimated EEESX and underestimated EIQ. Us are out, I have QI as backup, and QUIN? plays at the bottom right can hit hard. M1 EXES looks like the play here. I also didn't realize K6 QI is better than this cause I set up EXES next turn for 51!! well worth the 2 point sacrifice, but EXES still kills that in a sim #tacticslarge
Josh Sokol vs. Jackson Smylie (Game 35372)
Time Large
C6 EUOI +8
6A UNA(L)I(v)E and B1 U(N)AI tie the game. I thought of B1 UNAI before it was blocked but didn't realize it was still available. With more time I think I would have been able to find at least B1 U(N)AI. #TIMESADDEST
Waseem Khatri vs. Joshua Castellano (Game 49554)
Strategy Small
B2 DOG(Y) +18
I know Bernie's game well enough that he's gonna just take the TWS as soon as I open one up, which won't help him at his deficit. Still should do 7D DUO for 3 more. #strategysmall
Samuel Kaplan vs. Bernie McMahon (Game 35316)
Tactics Small
M7 P(O)I(N)TED +35
I really wanted to play OUTFOXING but this looked better for me. 22 points is pretty good, the leave is better. And I know it doesn't take an S, unlike FOXING. #tacticssmall
Sebastian Knowles vs. Josh Sokol (Game 37383)
Finding Large
13D BUR(F)I(s) +10
I decided FU(G) was such a weird play that it had to be a setup an overwhelming majority of the time. I did a bunch of estimations here and determined that this was barely worth playing if his play was a setup 80% of the time. However, what I failed to analyze was that this does block the hardest-hitting X plays, but gives back easy -AX plays in return which score around 40 points, so I'm not actually reducing Noah's average score by nearly as much as I thought I was. My other thought here was YO(K). I thought his range was specific enough now that the 14K spot would be mine a lot and that I could draw YO(K)ES or even something better a lot of the time. On paper I average well after BUR(F)I(s), but not nearly enough. There are plays that average more immediately as well, such as the bingo-seeking plays of M7 BUY and BUOY. BUR(F)I(s) should edge those out pretty convincingly in the turns after next, though. Even when I specify OUX as a partial rack leave, BUR(F)I(s) performs remarkably worse than YO(K). And unfortunately, just like Noah, I missed a cool disconnected play that solves most of my problems and keeps the game much closer. 13G (F)U(s)IB(L)Y is the way to go here. It blocks any setup potential better than any other candidate play and scores well. It does block the 14J spot which I still thought was a good asset, but that's OK. I've already tried to draw into a big play there and failed, no need to put all my eggs in one basket with the score so close. A ton of time and thought went into this play, and it's a glaring error. Tunnel visioning into not seeing that this didn't rid the board of big X plays like I wanted it to, as well as setting myself up for only one good outcome. #strategylarge #findinglarge
Noah Walton vs. Josh Sokol (Game 37013)
Endgame Medium
K9 VOE +20
After TREM, I would have to find EF B7 over OF, to set up OV(ER), perhaps, to win in the endgame.
For some reason Quackle can't find this play in the endgame, but it's 8 worse than 7B OF setting up STOVE 6K. #endgamemedium
Josh Sokol vs. Don Finkey (Game 33872)
Strategy Large
M3 VAN +22
I should probably leave the 3 row open, it's hard for him to close. I hated all my options - DAV(E)N? that puts pressure on at least, it's probably better than VAN. I was kinda hoping he wouldn't have a good TAGS block, but he can always do a mediocre one from the G in KLEAGLES or with ETA, and then I have to bingo on some terrible marginal lane. I think I got too obsessed with staying in bingo range, DAVEN isn't likely to win but at least I will be able to have a place to bingo. I think B4 ADD is good as well, keeping the 3 row and 13 rows open. either one of those seem way better than VAN #strategylarge
Jackson Smylie vs. Kenji Matsumoto (Game 33162)
Tactics Large
9G (Y)IRR +10
Quackle strongly favors exchanging keeping only the S; the best play on the board has over 6% less win chance. I can't explain that, but YIRR has the shortcoming of providing two extra lanes for Betty to play a bingo--columns J and K.#tacticslarge apparently
Alec Sjoholm vs. Betty Cornelison (Game 33768)
Knowledge Large
C9 (P)ANFUL +22
i chickened out on baneful (thought maybe i was confusing it with baleful) but didn't think it was a huge mistake. but it sorta is. -12 #knowledgelarge (also, it's risky after his last couple plays).
Cesar Del Solar vs. Bryan Richgruber (Game 32935)
Vision Medium
11K FOOD +29
i deserved to draw another I. i recognized here that i was in trouble, and i took a deep breath to calm down, i spent about a minute before looking at the board again -- then i still was unable to find a spot for IDIOM even though i saw it on my rack. sigh. it's the best play here, at 11J. -4 #focus #visionmedium
Mina Le vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 35123)
Strategy Small
D12 OATY +32
This isn't terrible. But keeping the S after OATY actually helps him more than it helps me since my average goes up and his average next turn goes down. ISU is a very weak leave, therefore, I should have done 13B OUTSAY over OATY. OUTSAY actually opens up 2 nice scoring spots and is simming ahead of OATY. #strategysmall
Joel Horn vs. Samuel Kaplan (Game 57771)
Knowledge Medium
J13 (I)F +13
i wasn't totally sure on FOLIAGED. FADO at N11 is simming best. it seems a bit too aggressive for my liking, but maybe i can do D9 DEAF or DEFEAT then (i didn't see AMIRS). my play bingos < 60% of the time and it may not be worth it. -4.5 #tacticsmedium #knowledgemedium #visionmedium
Edward De Guzman vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 32707)
Knowledge Large
12J ERR +14
oof. i chickened out on RETRACER, wrote it down but couldn't pull the trigger. ERR is still not right if retracer was phony, maybe something at 12 A like CARET/CERATE/CREATE. -38 #knowledgelarge
Eric Harshbarger vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 32700)
Strategy Small
8H AUA +6
CoCo Seattle Scrabble tournament round 5. I have heard it said that on an opening turn, one should exchange rather than playing a low-scoring vowel dump, to avoid allowing eights. That is especially true here, as I can keep a better leave after exchanging AOU. #strategysmall
Alec Sjoholm vs. Peter Armstrong (Game 37351)
Knowledge Medium
E4 MAK(I)NG +26
MARKING is better than MAKING cuz of the pool, i think. quackle still doesn't like blocking, instead playing 15H MANGEL to open another lane? i really disagree, i think hitting the L would be a lot harder than a wide open lane with MANGEL, and another lane in row 3 or 4. 3B RAGMEN seems to be the best play that blocks the lanes in the top left, and it keeps the K for scoring. -5 #findingmedium #knowledgemedium
Nigel Peltier vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 32701)
Finding Large
H11 (A)URAE +18
and as all these thoughts permeated my mind, such as "I should lose this game now, I deserve it." and "am I going to blow this whole tournament now?", I once again faced fake results orientation. I saw REAROUSE, then REASSURE, andd wondered if there was an anagram. I got close, but failed to recognize my high-prob 7. ERASURE keeps me well in the game. #findinglarge
Robert Goetz vs. Josh Sokol (Game 35862)
Vision Large
A1 A(P)ER +21
I was about to do O1 REpAIRE(D) until this got blocked, but if only I looked a little harder, I would have seen A2 (P)EARlIER. I should have put him away several turns ago and now! #visionlarge
Richard Popper vs. Samuel Kaplan (Game 47734)
Vision Large
7L YA +16
Way off. The right play here is MURA 5B, setting up the Y. I didn't see it, or anything else for that matter. And no, I didn't pick up on any tells; I'm just a spazz. -17 #visionlarge
Carl Johnson vs. Alec Sjoholm (Game 34513)