i was in a bad mental state after losing the first game, and i know this affects me. FL(O)P is the equity play here. I think when I'm tilting, I just make weird bad plays, either adjusting to score too much or to leave too much, depending on how worried I am. I may have overcompensated here, thinking i better take the extra 5 points and keep MNT instead of EMNT (i even remember thinking the E is not worth 5 points, so take the 5 points, but as is common for me when I'm playing unwell, I don't pay attention to defense at all -- PELF gives up 4 more pts on average than FL(O)P). -3 #strategysmall
I have no idea what is best here. I considered N10 DU(E), which is simming best, but I'm pretty sure Quackle is severely underestimating how often that gets blocked. Something like 10L L(ID)O would be good enough. I played this because if IOT? was somehow in the bag, I could win with either A1 (D)ORMIEnT or D6 EROTIsM. There are probably better plays that go for something similar. #strategysaddest
I didn't see the bingoes on Column I- hANGABL(E), GNAwABL(E), and GAiNABL(E) all play. However, not bingoing is actually better with all those 3x3s that those plays give up in a close game. If I'm not going to bingo, which I suppose I had the right idea either way, then O8 ALANG is definitely better. #findingmedium
big oofs all around here, frens. 15A FOREtOL(D), 15A OvERFOL(D), 15A FORsLOE(D) 15B REFLOO(D)s all would have been fine #KNOWLEDGESADDEST #FINDINGSADDEST #VISIONSADDEST
this gives up too many points. about half the time he has a letter to hook it and can hit me back bigly. i had typical tunnel vision here and didn't consider any other move besides getting rid of EE somewhere, but EERST is even better than EORST, and K5 OE makes my bingo more likely to fit. this was not a good move. -9 #strategylarge #focus
I just flat-out missed BARYE here. I was also unsure of BARNEY, even though I would have played that in an NWL game. I also just missed BYRE J5. #findingmedium
i considered trying OVERDARK* here. he might have let it go after an incorrect challenge. REVOKED C3 sims best though; didn't spot it. -1 #findingsmall
i saw ELVEN and i was positive it wasn't good, or at least just Collins. did they add it in 2014 or 2018? i should have played it anyway since it's my only win right? i was 2-5 and had to leave for dinner and was not thinking straight. #endgamelarge
damn, I just didn't see MEOW at 9G. I thought a whole lot about this turn and figured I was overthinking, but I really enjoyed the defensiveness of this play. He's maybe not going to want to make the equity plays next turn since they throw the board dangerously open, so he might either exchange or make a small play that just gives me scoring chances with my M and my W? MEOW is clearly best here, and I liked WOMEN at 7F as well. JOW and JEW at 7F seemed close but gross. #findingmedium for missing MEOW and #highlyquestionable for the rest
Through seven endgame plies, I1 REPrIVE(S)# is best of the 66-point bingos, rEPRIVE(S)# is second, and dEPRIVE(S) is third. I wasn't sure of REPRIVES#. #knowledgesmall
the dagger. Completely missed ZIL(c)H this turn. Figured I could navigate most things after this, but that it would be close. I also missed ZAIR(E) 2K which is very safe. Only saw AZUR(E). #findingSADDEST
N: 15F ULVAS sims better but I kinda liked putting the V out there to block #strategysadder ? definitely a #knowledgesadder for ULVAS
ALSO play was miscounted as 33 oop
thought about AA for real, which is prob what I play normally, but I didn't like how risky DEIOT was, especially on this board with not many good options for it if I don't hit. 4L ODEA is also fine as a more open option, but AA is nice and defensive. AA just performs similarly to ALODIA in most ways so the score is worth it. I'll say #tacticssmall cause it's probably an overadjustment
I had a hunch that ARREArED* might be phony, and I saw bingos on 14F. So why didn't I just play DREAREr for only 7 fewer? Quackle strongly prefers fishing off two tiles with O10 EGGER.... #knowledgelarge
I was low on time and forgot to track the blank in BIOTITE. I gave up an played line with seconds left. Only 14A LINIE(R), 14A INLIE(R), and 12F (T)I(R)E win. #TIMESADDEST
No home for UPRAISE. I did see 7E PIA(L) but so many options allow me to dump the U. However, 10F (J)U(B)A actually allows me to have a reasonable shot at bingoing next turn for only 7 less. #strategylarge
#knowledgesad for challenge
M1 Z(E)X #endgamesaddest #timesaddest I need to pay better attention to what my opponent has. Hopefully, by some miracle, they don't see 14B ANDR(O) and C6 DRAN(T) and I get another turn to go out with 7A JEDIS.
Damn i bingo more after 3G ZO #visionsadder #strategysadder i was so sad to have spotted LOZENGe on my rack but it didnt go anywhere T_T also just found out that LOZENGY is a words
I got the endgame wrong too. I had my tracking as if he had CJ, so I thought I was J-sticking him. If I had tracked AJ, I would have realized I can't stop him from going out, so the best play I would have generated would have been A4 (C)ICALA forcing him to play out with B11 JA(G). #endgamelarge
It seemed like Ian was consonant heavy, so JEU appeared to be more sound. I somehow average 20 more after AJUGA. I think I played this turn too scared. It's one thing if I average 1 point fewer after JEU. But not when I average 20. Even JUG in the same spot is probably fine to avoid X bombs, but I shouldn't be too concerned with that since there's many ways to play it, and Ian only averages 4 more after JEU vs JUG. #strategymedium
I saw 15L PI(N)T. I hated the leave with this pool and was nervous about potentially picking the Q. That would have absolutely screwed me over if Scott bingoes with either the FUDGES hook, the TOUCHE hook, or throught the E in KERF. And even if Scott doesn't have a bingo, I then have to potentially waste my blank to dispose of the Q. Championship player does not put this too far behind A1 TaWPI(E) and O8 VIeW. Lookng back, maybe I should do 5D W(A)P if I'll score something and minimize turnover if the V is also very clunky on this board, except if I draw -TIVE bingoes on Row 2, namely 2A OpTATIV(E). #strategymedium
Maybe the most interesting position of the game. I (and macondo inference) agree that Eric is far likelier than usual to be holding an S or blank right now. With inference, sim gives eric an average of 12 (!!) points after QUA, compared to 40 and 50 for 13C QUIRES and 14B QUIRE respectively. But my predicted score next turn is now only 14. I need some 2000+ analysis of this position #strategysad
Nope, need to just use one vowel here, big mistake. Spending my N absolutely torpedos my bingo%. Unfortunately, Neither RETINE or ORIENT hit the F from 1H very often. Also, if I was going to play two tiles ON is better than EN by a fair margin. #tacticsmedium bordering on large, the plays sim pretty close but I think the error is larger than that. 10:13
$ is notable, 12B (R)ELAuNCH is findable, but if im not gonna do that then 6J (ZEA)L is better than my play (and even 13B (I)NCHmEAL) #findingsaddest #strategysaddest
damn so it turns out A12 (F)LIC wins if I draw N or S, and I11 FLIC/FLIR or K11 ERIC win if I draw the S. I had like none time (left beef) on my clock by this point so i hadn't even tracked. also, #knowledgesad for letting FIES* go. #timesaddest #endgamesaddest
ThEOREMS was missed, but may or may not be better. I honestly stopped looking in this column after a minute, so it's sort of an error either way, if that makes sense. #findingmedium
1) I should know the extensions for PRIZE if I play PRIZE 2) I should have calculated the difference between ZIG and PRIZE better
3) I should see PIEZO ffs #findingmedium #strategymedium
gotta do 15F BU(S)TI, leave 7 in the bag and set up my S to score. there's hella vowels out, so i dont need to worry too much. #strategysaddest also #knowledgesad for challenge
I think taking the points for 13A (IN)VITEE is warranted here. I didn't see it. It does better things to the board and scores a lot more. #findingsmall
chickened out on 1K TARG(A) but no reason to try that if i have a win, only if it was my only play. -5 #knowledgemedium
i got so freaking lucky this game despite making a number of bad plays.