i spent a little while doing math on this move. 2 of the 43 unseen tiles are Z and J, so the chance he drew at least one of them is 1 - (41/43)*(40/42)*(39/41)*(38/40)*(37/39)*(36/38)*(35/37) or about 30%. First of all, is that actually right? And second, i estimated it as roughly 25% - which is not quite right, but i figured it was close enough. I should figure out a better way to do this kind of math. either way, it is probably for naught because the best play is either NOOGIE or GOOIER, sacrificing 8 pts but keeping a more workable leave, and not opening up as huge of a hotspot. -1.5 #tacticssmall
No home for IMPOSTS or MISSTOP. I did think about simply playing off an S with G7 (HOY)S to fish for 15A OPTIMIS(E) or 15A EPISTOM(E) and so that Ed can't just drop an A at 10G. This way, I can eventually open up the top left of the board if I pick an A. It felt like too big of a point sacrifice on a board that is only getting worse for bingoes due to me needing an E to make any sort of Column M plays. In addition, there's only 4 Is and 7 Es and a blank left to hit those specific bingoes. However, the sim appears to back up HOYS here as it is a slightly slower attempt to deplete the tile bag. #strategymedium
I did not know 4B S(C)ABLAND. Maybe B5 AB if I had to do this one over again as that's 10 more and now there's only so much I can do to block after VOCAL. #findingmedium
I was afraid to play off my other I with BIDI for 4 more points with the consonant-heavy pool. But now it's pretty funny that another reasonable option is B7 BIRD for just 1 less, which might look a bit better since there's still 2 more Is to draw. #findingsmall
Quackle hates this play, and I agree that it is unsound. My idea was to generate turnover for the blank while setting up a marginal lane on column N that is difficult for Noah to close (without opening another lane or sacrificing points) or to hit, because I have the last E. I considered 12H DOWSE, but Noah usually has one or more of DRRRS and can close the board easily by playing on column M. I did not consider any fishing plays. L8 WE is best by far, setting up OKES on column M and tempting a play at 8L that opens lanes for 8s. #strategylarge
julia is so funny, she was saying how I was already destroying here! I'm only up by like 20 haha. I missed PYU(R)IA here which looks better #findingsmall
I talk myself out of EXORABLE, remembering that there was something weird about it. What I was remembering was the fact that EXORABLY* is no good but that INEXORABLY is. #knowledgelarge
I did not see B6 (ZOO)N(A)L in this position, which appears to be worth it over exchanging since I do still retain a hook to ONES. If I'm going to exchange, I definitely want to keep the C for CONES. Keeping CR isn't a bad option either with the synergy those letters have. #visionmedium
This hits a few sevens, but they're all too easiliy blocked. The best play seems to be 10L (G)OV, which Championship Player says wins 14% of the time. I guess if I draw a bing that ends in S or starts with A, E, I, or O, my bing can't be blocked? That's the only thing I can think of. #strategylarge
i didn't see PINKOEs here, but it might not be worth bingoing. my first choice KOP is best. i want to give myself the best bingo chances next turn. -2 #tacticssmall
was happy to draw the last remaining Ss and to see him play BIKE and block most of the ?AT setups. I might want to play wyn/by here. looks close. EGSS at least takes out the 7 conso rack danger. I should probably do that. I wanted to keep both Ss to hit SCURVY as a scoring play, hence not WYTES. however there is something to be said for playing the S to avoid the 7 consos. I think WYN is the play #strategysmall
3E BEWIG, which I did not see, seems to be the best immediate equity play, but I do like this play anyway to set up -GH plays ending at 2F that score a lot. #tacticsstrong
My opponent's clearly been fishing and the pool looks spanking, so I figured I needed to block bingos but what I also really needed to do was keep scoring. 4H VEN(o)M is great here #strategysaddest #findingsaddest
didn't know DOMATIA#, though this rack did scream of bingo. I missed DAIM(Y)O and OID(I)A which both significantly improve on this. I looked for something like DAIMYO, such a tough thing to spot. OIDIA should not be tough to spot, but I was intent on leaving the S hook open and totally distracted by what had just happened. Really bad. #findingSADDEST #knowledgeSADDEST
I couldn't bear to leave the FRIZE hook open, especially since I assumed he must be keeping an E. After the game he told he forgot about the FRIZE hook. J13 AH sims best. #strategysaddest
13A MAX gives back a lot on column A and row 14, but there is already a lot of scoring potential on this board, and MAX unloads one of my A's and scores one more point. #strategysmall
There is a lot of cool plays here: this, 9A YEH, B2 wHEEZER, J8 YEZ, N2 YEESH. HEEZE has best equity, but Quackle picks 9A YEH (which I found postmortem). YEH sacrifices only six points while keeping ?EEZ--a very strong leave especially considering the shortage of unseen E's. #strategymedium
this really didn't seem like the sort of play I would normally make in a position like this. Keeping things a bit more tight and keeping better with G3 HIN was the fiirst thing I considered, for a decent amount of time too. Quackle agrees that this is substandard. HIN hits a bingo 10% more and scores better than HAEMIN. #strategysmall
I forgot if HAOLE was expurgated or not, so I didn't play that. Either way, I would play J7 O(L)EA in a do-over and save a much better leave of AEHS both for bingoing and for scoring potential. #findingsmall
I think I have to just give up and cut spread with K11 ADIEU at this point. Even if I draw the L, I have to play 5 tiles to score anything. I'll have better odds of drawing 14J J(E)TTY as opposed to 14J J(A)NTY after my play. #strategysmall
J: I thought about this and then realized BLOTCHED probably doesn't have an anagram. Still thought that I was desparate enough. I had O7 GYBED though, and honestly only saw it after losing the challenge. This is on one of Carl's phonies lists and apparently he had just recently mentioned it to Sid. #knowledgelarge
C: During my insomniac studying session on Friday night/ Saturday morning, this was one of the phonies I studied. I always see BLOTCHED/BEDCLOTH* but I was ready for it this time. Some sick timing!
10B WIENERS is far superior, but even if I don't see that something like C2 WRIEST is absolutely fine...way too big an equity hit with WURST just to get another S hook on the board. #strategymedium #findingmedium
(R)IP might be the play here. I bingo a bit more than after TIPI. (H)ILI is also nice to make a better lane, I bingo quite a bit. this is a bit too closed and doesn't bingo quite enough #findingsmall
many terrible choices here. i regret not playing 13J FIZ. i didn't think of it - only thought of FRIZ. need to generate more plays and be better at it. my IF opens a lane but blocks the E. -3.5 #findingmedium
awful and discouraging. I completely forgot that DEVI was a word so i only thought of making the hook an A. also, because I had spent like half my time on the first three moves, i was pretty low here and could not see a good way to win. i did see FRAT, which quackle says is a winning play, but where's the other spot for WAI besides WAIT? -8 #endgamelarge (edit: 5B WAIR, making three "new" in the last few years 2s!! how can I hope to play Collins if I can't find TWL 2s??)
bad! by far the best play is the excellent 11J AMUCK. i have the case S, score 28 pts, and go for letters like the Z to score a lot with. i thought of AMUCKS/AMUCK on my rack, but didn't quite look hard enough. LUCK is very weak and is the type of game-losing play i make way too often. the fact that it takes a Y makes it even worse. 9J MUCK is ok if i don't think of AMUCK. -15.5 #strategylarge #findinglarge
OK, even less excuse now with some time to think about it, and another turn for him to draw something there - I gotta do something like M9 MAGIAN to block that area. I think I thought that after he gets 80 there, I bingo for hopefully a comparable amount and still have tempo on a crummy board. But why wouldn't I try to stop the 80? FLEXOR and MATH would have been ok plays otherwise, but...come on. I will say that of all my turns at Nationals this year, this one was most tilting, because I saw all 4 of my playable CSW bingos here, and got agitated that I somehow didn't have a single TWL one...stopping myself from those kinds of reactions might be a bigger challenge than actually keeping the words straight. #strategylarge
once I actually realized my misplay in this position I assumed YEAH was probably an 18-point mistake. I mistracked a U instead of a D, so I thought my Q had a better chance of not getting stuck. I also didn't notice that INSNARE played under DIF which I was not blocking. So I should play QA(T) 8C and just brace for impact I think.
#tacticsmedium
I didn't have much time here and decided I just needed to play fast and I missed K3 (G)OETY. I also wasn't sure of 12H (C)OUTHY. #timesaddest #knowledgesaddest
This is OK in its own right, and it does score the most, but 8J IDEATE would have allowed me to save my J and given me 5 chances to draw an A and something else for nice 6F plays! #visionmedium
I wish Woogles would have a button that allows me to change lexicons in the middle of the game, JAI# at 6F would have easily been it in that case! LOL
I decided FU(G) was such a weird play that it had to be a setup an overwhelming majority of the time. I did a bunch of estimations here and determined that this was barely worth playing if his play was a setup 80% of the time. However, what I failed to analyze was that this does block the hardest-hitting X plays, but gives back easy -AX plays in return which score around 40 points, so I'm not actually reducing Noah's average score by nearly as much as I thought I was. My other thought here was YO(K). I thought his range was specific enough now that the 14K spot would be mine a lot and that I could draw YO(K)ES or even something better a lot of the time. On paper I average well after BUR(F)I(s), but not nearly enough. There are plays that average more immediately as well, such as the bingo-seeking plays of M7 BUY and BUOY. BUR(F)I(s) should edge those out pretty convincingly in the turns after next, though. Even when I specify OUX as a partial rack leave, BUR(F)I(s) performs remarkably worse than YO(K). And unfortunately, just like Noah, I missed a cool disconnected play that solves most of my problems and keeps the game much closer. 13G (F)U(s)IB(L)Y is the way to go here. It blocks any setup potential better than any other candidate play and scores well. It does block the 14J spot which I still thought was a good asset, but that's OK. I've already tried to draw into a big play there and failed, no need to put all my eggs in one basket with the score so close. A ton of time and thought went into this play, and it's a glaring error. Tunnel visioning into not seeing that this didn't rid the board of big X plays like I wanted it to, as well as setting myself up for only one good outcome. #strategylarge #findinglarge
thought for what felt like an hour, didnt know A7 VISCU(M) and didnt generate A8 LOCU(M). even B9 VIC(I)OUS (which i saw) is better than my play #knowledgesaddest #strategysaddest
I think I chose this over the other 4A bingos because it formed EEW--yes, for that reason alone. But I missed C3 pLEBEIAN, which scores the same and doesn't open a TWS-TWS lane. #findingsmall