N10 BEG sims best against a random rack, but after 9K S(O) and the available pool, it seems extremely likely that he has another S. It seemed like the game would be over if I play N10 BEG and he bingos on the O column or even just plays there with his S and I'm holding the Q. I thought my best shot was to to throw the Q back (holding consonants because I thought the bag seemed slightly vowel heavy) and hope he draws it after his N column bingo and I respond with an 1H bingo or column O bingo. However, even simming against the best possible racks, N10 BEG is winning every time. It's probably partly because he is unlikely to be holding a U, which gives me a good chance of drawing a U after N10 BEG. But even with AENQU??, I'm not sure how I can ever win after a column O play. #strategysaddest
Chosen over 9G AG, which allows 10G pOMFRET. H6 OVA wins the sim; ADEGR >> ORV, and after OVA, Steven's highest-scoring bingos are 6C/6G FOREMOsT 66. The sim assumes that after AGED, Steven will play 10I FORMaTE, allowing potential OVER- plays at O8--which means that if Steven plays at 7H instead I can expect worse results than the sim suggests. #tacticsmedium
G1 QI seems like the kind of play that would sim best, but this time it's just the timid 9C QA(T) that wins. I have difficulty evaluating these kinds of decisions, though this one seems correct. Also, #knowledgesad for the challenge.
Bad job by me here, I was so close to doing FUSTIC like I'm supposed to, but got foolishly seduced by static equity. VATU gives Orry a lifeline to fish later on with multiple lines on opposite sides of the board. FUSTIC opens nothing new and scores well. #strategymedium
11C DIB is best, blocking the J. 12C VEG is second, with the same idea and the best equity. I suppose ABDER doesn't become a bingo often on this board. #tacticssmall
I think I liked that FIB blocks the L column, but it's a lousy block considering that it keeps five consonants and that I could potentially use ALGUAZIlS later for the same purpose. C11 FACT is best despite opening a high-scoring lane on row 15 for the unseen AAS. I like 7C FACT, Quackle's second choice. #strategymedium
i thought about this for a while and i've been studying 6s and only remembered UNGUAL and UNGULAR. i couldn't think what UNGULA could be the plural of. but i guess UNGULAR should mean pertaining to an UNGULA. he also took a while on this and thought he might be makng it up #knowledgelarge
jeez, sigh, totally missed the anagram of OPES -- PESO. even 6H OP is pretty decent. OPES is just like "here be my guest and score some points / bingo". -7 #knowledgemedium
no idea what to do here. I took forever. Maybe (W)RAP to set up WRAPT. I hated (P)RAU because of all the extra bingos it gave back. It still sims best. #strategysmall
When will I learn that I should never keep two I's? AHI has the best equity, but 12C TAHINI is best overall; having two I's greatly hinders my potential for a 2*2 on column K. #tacticssmall
Just MEEK seems fine, I bingo a ton more to the T. Also considered 14G ACME to block rows 14 and 15, but didn't like that it opened a new sevens lane for -ST words and an easy triple. #strategysmall
There are some interesting choices that sim best like 2K B(AW)R, 6H B(I)R(R)S, O7 (KVETCH)eRS, 12C ROB(E), E10 B(A)R, 6M OB, and L12 (A)RB which are all much better than B5 SOmBReR since they don't always lose to an outbingo. #strategysaddest #timesaddest
Would've been funny if I played my other choice of 2B URP because then I could say "Your play: URP" - I somehow missed 2D PRURIENT. Pretty lazy. #findinglarge
4G B(E)NZOL was the play I was looking for here. Right idea to dump the Z because it's a sucky tile on this board, but the B also needed to be dumped. #findingsmall
hard for me to determine which one is better between YEW and WAME. i see that EUY is a worse leave than AEMU and WAME might be worse defensively, but i like keeping the Y to score again next turn; YEW seemed easier to overlap etc. meh. -2 #tacticssmall
ok, so back when he played REARMING i immediately thought "don't forget the P hook" and was looking for a P all game. right after JAYS played, i realized that i missed KEET, and that BIDE was never a bingo fish. you can imagine my brain immediately short circuiting. what happened? this was the last game of the morning. was i hungry? THIS whole game right here is why i'm not coming close to winning nationals unless i change something, and even though i now know that it is my focus that needs help, actually getting to that deeply focused state requires so much effort (for me) that it is insanely difficult. i pulled it off to a small extent at lake george (and still made a bunch of silly mistakes), but i haven't been practicing. what is my POET even doing; i'm going to let him score a bunch off the P, and i'm not even setting up a hopeful S hook. i seem very undeserving of a 2000 rating when i make mistakes like this, which explains why i'm almost never there. -19 #strategySADDEST #focusworst
oh maybe just FYK(E) here, a bit less defensive. didn't see it. I was close ot playing DYKE, hoping he might not know the D hook, but I think he would. Q has it similar to FYKE, and that seems a bt better than FYKES. #findingsmall
i did consider G10 DUNG but i didn't want to open it up for him after his last play or two. his rack kind of smelled of blanks (i can smell them) and i thought i should keep it a bit closed. i maybe could play H1 GNAR too, or 5M GOD or something. either way, i'm in decent shape. -3.5 #strategysmall
Fishing is clearly correct here. I think if I wanted to force Joey to open the board for cheap, I think 6H (B)U(N) or 6H (B)U(N)D are better versions of this play. #visionsmall
she played ZIT with mucho gusto, and it made me think it was probably a setup. I worried that F(I)G, the best block I saw, was gonna be too big a sacrifice in the case it wasn't. however, I think I should have trusted my read on her since even with just XI implied FIG beats FOE and OF by over 5 points. with QI implied it's an even bigger difference, of course. #strategymedium
XI C9 might work enough that it's worth playing? Man, plays like that are so hard to pull the trigger on. I think Michael would even sniff the setup sometimes. Dunno? XED in the same spot is probably a bit better, which I figured afterwards, just liked the E a lot more than the I. #tacticssmall
13I ENTER might be correct here. I inferred he had the last D so I thought setting up an S he was less likely to have was the way to go. Could be led to believe otherwise. My bingo is also unlikely to get me there after NEG, so I should be scoring. #tacticsmedium
i've actually played ossifier at a tournament earlier this year, but no hope of finding it here. i was nearly in tears by the end of this game, which hasn't happened to me in many years! i ended up losing my focus for much of the rest of the day. -9 #knowledgelarge
i am so doubtful that 9H GIE is the play here. i really am shocked that it sims better than exchanging. i know 18 pts is 18 pts, but come on, how could keeping AEEI be right here. -4? #tacticsmedium ?
Supposedly 10B AY(I)N here and bingo. I bingo like 10% of the time after this (maybe I draw the L?) which is three times as much than after I13 YA. I wasn't even thinking about bingoing here because of the state of the board. Another advantage of playing off one more tile could be getting another shot at the F or P so I can score #strategysad
meant to play 14H DOME but was rushed and accidentally played this instead. saw F11 EMO, which is best, but thought the leave was gross #strategysadder
i wrote BAD !! next to this play at some point. not sure what makes it so much worse than missing HADJEE, but something like AVAIL or even EVICT is straightforward here. -2.5 #strategysmall i think i'm mostly mad at myself for fishing for no reason.
totally confused here. This was actually pretty awful since he can just re-overlap and fork the board. I did happen to block SUBATOM in two spots, but
#tacticsmedium
This has the best equity, but Quackle overwhelmingly prefers exchanging, keeping only the R--though I am ahead, I am less than 50% to win, so I should preserve the lanes on rows 14 and 15. #tacticsmedium
wow, this play sims unexpectedly badly. i bingo a lot less than i thought i did -- only about 46%. I guess Ys are the worst letter in Scrabble. quackle likes 3L DY(K)E for 24 - even though i don't bingo often, i get a ton of points the next turn. -9.5 #strategylarge
9E EXO scores 7 more and is much more defensive, but tanks my next turn bingo%; Quackle actually wants the other placement of OXO at 9H, giving up a few more points to Bob but also maxing out my chances of bingoing. Really close options, at most a #tacticssmall
I didn't love anything here out of all plays I saw- this, D12 D(R)AM for 20, J10 AM(I)D, and G1 DAM came to mind. I liked taking out the S hook for GESTAPOS with this, but the sim thinks it's too big a point sacrifice when I won't be up by much. I think DAM is a better play than DOLMA if I'm going to miss 11H MAT(E)D, which does beat out all those plays in the sim and on static equity. #visionmedium
It's behind playing through this rack with K6 DJ(I)NN with equity, but it actually sims competitvely with DJINN. when I sim this one. I hated DJINN since that takes several hooks 1 space short of the DWS. After DJIN, DNR? is not a bad leave with an open E or O. Playing DJIN could, however, cause Cesar to hook DJIN himself and make it hard for me to use Row 11, especially if I don't draw a vowel. In a do-over, I might do DJIN just because I'm down a lot and if he doesn't have an S or N, he might have to leave it open. Definitely an instructive position when I have spread to make up. #strategymedium
CODA is the sorrt of play I usually make, but COS scores way better than GOS here. this is also only slightly more defensive, and the top left is gonna get plays in the next turn so I'm not worried about the lane longterm. for reference, i score over 10 more after DAGO than CODA! I can also score an extra 6 points next turn by playing GOOD 2c, keeping the A for overlaps and a better leave overall. that is probably the play, it gives up fewer bingooes than DAGO as well. #findingsmall