Seemed justified with the blank in hand, but I almost did the much safer LUZ to create a really ugly board position. I think I prefer that now, but AXLE has its merits. #strategysmall 11:11
Even after an exchange 6, I think 10E LIE would have been a little better because even though I set up EWER and the EDIT hooks, L10E LIE sets up both my D and my R and Brandon averages about 3 less next turn. #strategysmall
I totally spaced that narco was good...until later. PREY G8 is best. SIm still likes arco better than narco but prey sims 5 poitns better
#Strategymedium #knowledgesaddest
No way will I be able to Q-stick him unless something miraculous happens, so I had the right idea to score again, but 1A FOLKIE is slightly better. #findingsmall
I saw but hated how blocky D9 TOPO was. I liked this move to eventually open up the top left because I have the P hook for POI. Maybe OVATE would have been a better version of this if I was going to also pass up G12 OPT. #strategysmall
I overthought this a bit I think. XENIC simply is probably fine. She held this for a bit. I think considering she might not know this, and how easy it is to overlap the X and score after this, I should have just done XENIC #strategysmall
Apparently FOX is better, but it seemed like it gave back sooo much and I can score with the X next turn, but DHNR can turn into something as well. I could hit INHOLDER or something #tacticsmedium
this move symbolizes everything that is wrong with my scrabble game (i know that sounds hyperbolic, but hear me out). of course i should try to block, but the only thing that looked halfway decent was ADZ. still, the most important thing here is to ask myself how I can lose this game, and it is by him hitting a huge bingo afterwards, and me drawing poorly to RTVY, and him bingoing again. can that happen? absolutely. if i play ADZ, i force him to bingo at the top; row 2 or 3 most likely. I can then overlap his play, blocking any potential bingos, and i'm still up by a lot, and should be heavily favored to win. i even thought about something silly like VIZSLA being possible but if anything i have the V. ZOOID sims best of course. the biggest mistake i made here, and one that i make often, is not having enough empathy to put myself in his shoes and realize he's likely keeping an extremely strong leave. of course i thought the leave was probably pretty good, but it also seemed desperate enough that ZOOID might just block whatever he has, and that there's a decent chance he missed his fish as well. i didn't think he would have the blank. if i give him AEIS? as a leave ADZ DOES sim better than ZOOID, lowering his average score by about 24. with 4-ply ADZ is still on top. the only issue is that the win% diff is so tiny, yet i'm convinced this is a massive error. #strategylarge
B1 CHAPaTT(I) allows for triple-triples so it's actually not the correct play here. B2 PATHeT(I)C(S) is better so a big ol' #KNOWLEDGESADDEST because i didn't know it.
Missed two bingos here after he surprisingly blocked ANALYSTS K5. SATYRALS# and STAYSA(I)L. I have no excuse for the latter other than of course I would miss a Y bingo. This turn was also fascinating because I wondered how much the A improved my leave. If I play K9 SAY, I score 1 less, and don't block the triple. However, I understcored SAY by 2 in my head. Still, as somewhat expected, SAY is a much better play than SA(T)AY. I should have gathered that conclusion over the board. #findingsaddest #strategysad
an inexplicable miss of just 10H (D)UIT, which is worse than average but still has to be worth playing. Hyper leave-oriented play seems to have permeated my brain in NWL of late. I only considered exchanging and playing RUTT(Y). #findingSADDEST
Right idea with the turnover and blocking the HUMPS hook. I will say that TURNIP is a worse play than it usually is because I should not be keeping 2 Os with 3 more usneen. While TURNIP isn't egregious, I should be looking to address my O problem while also blocking more indirectly with F2 UNROOT or even 4C UNROOF. #visionmedium
I had the right idea by passing up D1 QUAKY as I will likely draw a play there next turn. 1H NARKY is a sligtly better version of this because I have a 9/29 chance of picking an A or an O for QUAD/QUOD as opposed to only a 6/26 chance of picking an A or an E for QUAY/QUEY. #visionsmall
13A/B plays come out on top in a sim and according to CP, which is strange because I would think that I have to block the N column because bings there would probably give the least back. Suggestions welcome as always. #strategysmall I suppose.
7H (C)RIBLE sims best, setting up RIZ but 1) i dont know it so #knowledgesaddest and 2) idk if it works. M12 BLEE seems okay even though the thought of opening a trip-trip after two 2-tile plays gives me the hives
AWEE seemed to give a lot more easier plays back, but that shouldn't be a huge concern since I'm probably slightly behind regardless, so the extra point, better opportunities next turn and one fewer vowel might be good. #strategysmall
H7 VERB for 9 would have allowed the X spot to be open, although that's not a move I want to make against Mitchell. Against most other players, I might have done that as the opponent would have had to deal with the X hotspot allowing me the VERBS hook. #strategylarge
i did actually see BUSLOAD but i didn't love using my S like that. dunno, DRUB is overall pretty weak, i suppose. should just take the points. -5 #strategymedium
96% to win, but this turn called for more than combinatorics. DULC(I)NEA is two more points, and I don't really see why I shouldn't play DULC(I)NEA. #findingsmall
I spent most of my time on this turn trying to figure out how to block his 3x3 in a strategically sound manner, but DUNE H12 did not come to mind. That would have been a lifesaver.
I thought SCRIB was a word #knowledgesaddest so this doesn't leave a bingo line that I need to win. Something like 3K (C)L(E)W seems good here. #strategysaddest
Apparently Exch. ILNNRV isn't bad given the pool but also, realistically, where am i gonna bingo that isn't from the N on the O column? I guess i could hope to draw a bingo from the A of FOEdARIE or one that underlaps TEA, making WEXES/WEXED? #strategysaddest Also this play was miscounted as 17
If HU* (or Hofstra University, my alma mater) was good, 10G THION(I)NE still plays!! However, G3 HON is fine even with all those Es left. #strategymedium
an unaggressive, lame move. BOW at H13 is probably better. but BROWS/CROWS at 14B for 39 pts is best. i didn't even bother counting the score. i think if i had counted it i would have realized that's the play i want to make. it's really really hard to focus when you're 1-5. i was probably on autopilot trying to keep the RS combo etc. instead of thinking about the game situation. -8.5 #strategylarge
M7 TRON sims best, gives me the chance to draw a vowel finally, but i didn't want to play anything obstructing the 11L G. Kinda silly now that I think about it, because it's pretty improbable that I can bingo through there and M7 TRON actually gives me a lane for a 7. idk. this might be a #strategysaddest
Wondered about EFIRS vs EIRS here. I thought EFIRS was slightly stronger for bingos next turn and also just more balanced in general, the F can be used for scoring as well as bingos. However, EIRS is remarkably stronge than EFIRS here, mostly because of the floaters on the board I imagine. EFIRS might hit a similar amount of 7s but definitely not nearly as many 8s. #tacticssmll
I did not know the ATWAIN hook in this situation. So I decided to try to bingo again and rack up additional spread. #knowledgelarge because I would have scored much better than this.
ugh, this move is so bad. at least i realized that i can't play 4J O(DE) by itself, it doesn't hit enough and scores abysmally. but LODE bingoes even less so it also sucks. i did see 2L ULNA and considered it for a while, but i hate ROTE and i'm down by 100 pts already, i absolutely need to bingo next turn. i didn't see M1 ENOL despite breathing deeply, so maybe there is no hope. -8 #findingmedium #strategylarge
Will blocked LAYOVERS, and with nothing to lose but spread, I decided to check whether HUNTABLE takes an S. O1 SYLVAE has the highest valuation. #knowledgelarge
This and TIMInGS play in several spots. I figured I would choose not to be reckless with this placement, but H8 (R)IGhTISM is not a word I saw here. #findingmedium
I'm not sure if I'm supposed to challenge this off or not. It depends on how much I think Karl will see/find. If I challenge it off, the problem is I have no good plays that don't give back bingos I think he can find, and my rack is bad while he has the blank. On the other hand, if I keep this on and play 14B BR(A)INING, I'm down a tempo. I'm not sure what's best here. #strategysadder
Saw both playable sevens here but somehow spaced on the T hook to OP - to make matters worse I took five full minutes looking through all the open 8s lanes. #visionlarge 16:18
I think I saw 4A HOVER but otherwise rushed this play. D2 OVUM is best; it sets up plays in row 1 making NOVUM# but has the second-best equity behind D1 HOVE, which gives even more back? 4B MEVROU# and HOVE are also good plays. #strategysmall
Tough move here. My hope was that reparalleling MIS with ISO would help me open more of the board on subsequent turns, but particularly blocky AMIS hooks like the one Vince played are bad news. Sim actually prefers LIS slightly over MIS on that basis, allowing many fewer points per turn to Vince by allowing fewer hooks and less lucrative plays down the L column. #strategysmall
I did not see 2D YeX for 62. That's a lot of points and there are many I's left for ING bingos, so that seems correct. I considered this, YANG 2J and (TA)NGY. It seemed good to go straight for a bingo now, but it could be that patience is in order, keeping the X again to try and bomb it. #findingmedium
J8 A(G)IO and J8 A(G)A are slightly better because they both take an S unlike J8 A(G)O and AGA has the added benefit of taking an R that I already have #strategysad
Whew, not a gamble worth taking - honestly thought SCAWING* was a word. Just CAWINGS. Lucky that the score was close enough that Bob didn't feel he could afford the five points. The crazy thing is that TAR bingos an amazing amount more often than TAD, which I was debating playing instead of CAD - Quackle says 33% to 19%. Quite surprising. CAD does actually sim quite well, but I gotta give this a #knowledgelarge 12:30
I gave up here and blocked some potential bingos since spread could be really important later on. N7 YOGI is even better for saving spread. #strategysaddest
I liked finding a play that opens up nicely. I think if I wanted to also dump my G here with Column H already being one of my main bingo lines, E2 VAGIN(AL) was a slightly better play for 2 more. The sim agrees. #findingsmall
MM: This is not a good play for two reasons. 1) I should block 2B RIN/NEW with TOLT, which is 10 better. 2) TROOK* is not a word. #endgamemedium
JM: No such thing as TROOK*. I must have been thinking of STROOK. Spread meant very little to me at this juncture.