spent forever trying to find a triple triple and ran out of time. i hope i would have found POSTBAg if the game depended on it. -14 #findinglarge
i absolutely knew i was going to have a bad tournament after this game. it really sucks to lose the opening game, and as much as i need to practice zen and whatever, you just know it's not your tournament after this. i was not feeling it. i do need to practice staying calm before nationals though, and i should have made more of an effort here.
I ran out of time, mistracked, and gave up and just scored, which wins 4/8 with no inference. M6 DIRL(S) wins 5/8 with no inference when he doesn't have a bingo on the O column (if I draw EIRS?) and O3 DIXI wins 5/8 with no inference when he doesn't have a bingo from the V (if I draw AERS?). The evaluation of this endgame with inference is left as an exercise to the reader. #TIMESADDEST #STRATEGYSADDEST
in huge trouble, need to bank on a 3x3 now. Really stupid to not play LINY instead, but his idea of playing ENTOIL might translate into not blocking the L next turn either? No, this was clearly a miss. #findingsmall
this is not a good move. i need to outrun him and score more. i didn't want to empty the bag so he wouldn't plan his outgame, but i may not have a choice here. N1 TAN scores 18 and will help outrun him. i don't think i have many ways to win after TOWEL. -3 #preendgame #strategymedium
If I play 11B B(AN)GED, I can't leave O or L in the bag (provided Ben plays N2 WAX(IER)). After WAXIER, B(AN)GED still has a 60% shot. BUT even after drawing the L or O, B(AN)GED loses to perfect play. Ben has one move (from his POV) that wins 100% of the time: 11I UNRID because it goes out with every draw from the bag. So blocking doesn't work here.
If I assume Ben sees:
-11I UNRID but not INSURED (or doesn't see either), 11B B(AN)G or V(AN)G are probably OK since UNRID only works because it guarantees an out for him next turn and CDEVN is pretty good for the bag (by playing 2 instead of 4, I might get first-mover advantage in the endgame). Buuuut OBANG is a thing and it doesn't look entirely blockable. So my opponent would have to assume I'm setting up an O that I don't actually have (and a 2/5 shot is not incredible). My opponent is probably forced to find INSURED then.
-INSURED but not UNRID, then B(AN)GED might be OK? It would still lose to something like 11I SURED, but would win as long as he draws the U if he plays UNRED/URNED/RUNED.
-both INSURED *and* UNRID, then V(A)C maximizes my chances of drawing a bingo (there's 6/10 draws that work, which is the same shot as B(AN)GED as long as WAX(IER) is played). BUT, Ben's likely playing 11G INSURED for 72, so BONDAGE and BANDAGE (70) tie; BUNGLED, BLUNGED and BANGLED (69) lose by 1; and DOGBANE loses by 2.
Instead, if I play 2G B(A)NG keeping CDEV, I can sometimes draw into 11F COUVADE and 11G ALCOVED (or B5 ALCOVED and B5 COUVADE depending on where he plays).
V(A)NG draws into BECLOUD or CODABLE, but BECLOUD only fits on the B column and CODABLE goes in both spots, so Ben might play INSURED on the B column to block BECLOUD if I draw it.
The funny thing is, after B(A)NG, Ben might realize that I want him to bingo. If he surmises that I'm keeping at least three consonants after B(A)NG, he can just play 6 tiles (almost guaranteed to give him an out). Against the range of partial leaves CVD, CVL, CDL, and VDL, Ben's best play is (AN)EURINS, which (I think) wins 100% if he doesn't draw the V.
Soooo, after all that, B(A)NG might just be my best bet. Gonna put this one down as #strategysaddest
i always struggle a bit with making obvious fishes like this but it seemed to work with a lot of letters, and through the A, etc. quackle prefers N1 PST for 29 or O7 PHT for 14. i think i would have played PHT if i'd thought of it. -2.5 #tacticssmall #visionsmall
This is going for a draw of B, C, H, or L to threaten 3E bingos while keeping row 10 open. However, M9 WAI(S) sims best, probably because it keeps 3C bingos available, which might be more likely. #strategylarge
Although I'm in a great position after HAMATE (his bingoes will empty the bag, leaving me up a tempo in a close endgame, meaning a very likely win), I should still do AHEM N11 - I really loved what that did, but I was only 90% sure that AHEM didn't take an S, and if it takes an S that could be a game-losing mistake. I felt like the chance that AHEM took an S was higher than the chance that HAMATE would lose me the game when AHEM would win me the game. Either way this is just an estimation and a clear word knowledge error. #knowledgemedium
I liked hanging onto my Y to open the bottom left if I needed to do that. Quackle thinks I should play VINYL immediately, even though I'm over 95% to win with both moves. #strategysmall
she played ZIT with mucho gusto, and it made me think it was probably a setup. I worried that F(I)G, the best block I saw, was gonna be too big a sacrifice in the case it wasn't. however, I think I should have trusted my read on her since even with just XI implied FIG beats FOE and OF by over 5 points. with QI implied it's an even bigger difference, of course. #strategymedium
13G QI is best. QUERN has the best equity, but the pool is less than good. Honorable mention to L2 LID, which occasionally draws into FREQUENT or QUITRENT 1A or QUEERING 15A. #strategylarge
at this point I should be playing RYA 11b. that blocks the SEGO spot, which is now a threat for me. the R is also not so dangerous with 3 in the pool, and especially since Joey has a knack for keeping scoring tiles so his DEV range is less bingoey than one might expect. this sets up AY above, but that may not be enough to consistently outrun SEGO plays #strategymedium
Blocking 2F CAZIQUES 106. Quackle hates this and prefers N6 BI, which blocks the hotspot at N6 (the Q and X are unseen) and outruns CAZIQUES with every possible draw. If I draw the X, I threaten A5 COAX 66! #tacticslarge
J8 A(G)IO and J8 A(G)A are slightly better because they both take an S unlike J8 A(G)O and AGA has the added benefit of taking an R that I already have #strategysad
fuck, 13C OGLE is a setup. It's a good one because if I hit an A or O, I'm not opening a lane on row 15 after the X bomb. This was a key miss. Just found a good play getting rid of the X and sent it. #tacticsmedium
Ack, missed the BLAZING hook on this turn, although I would see it later. If I'm not gonna see that, maybe it's better to ditch the V with VERB in this spot. #findingsmall
YAGE is pretty poor defensively.I liked this becayse i thought it was quite defensive unsless Annette had an s, but overlooked j6 GEY which scores 5 more and is more defensive. Even though gyve sets up my s, it isn't ocrrect. Sim likes GEY by 1.5 #strategysmall
lots of things are close here. I should probably play longer and leave more promising tiles with J4 TRYMA. The K column will probably get opened regardless. #strategysmall
H1 INfAUNA(E) #KNOWLEDGESADDEST and a big old "what was I thinking?" because I spaced out and thought I had a T. It took me until walking over to the challenge computer to realize that I never had a T and I'm just stupid.
not sure what happened here. If I missed VIEW, if I didn't think it scored anything, what. It's a ton better. I played this whole game like Cesar, especially starting here. #findingmedium
more speed playing so i'm not making super accurate moves here. 14A GIF looks awesome, i have the case T, and i also block the S(ELECTING) hook which is now worrisome. -5.5 #speed #strategymedium
This isn't terrible. But keeping the S after OATY actually helps him more than it helps me since my average goes up and his average next turn goes down. ISU is a very weak leave, therefore, I should have done 13B OUTSAY over OATY. OUTSAY actually opens up 2 nice scoring spots and is simming ahead of OATY. #strategysmall
damn, I just didn't see MEOW at 9G. I thought a whole lot about this turn and figured I was overthinking, but I really enjoyed the defensiveness of this play. He's maybe not going to want to make the equity plays next turn since they throw the board dangerously open, so he might either exchange or make a small play that just gives me scoring chances with my M and my W? MEOW is clearly best here, and I liked WOMEN at 7F as well. JOW and JEW at 7F seemed close but gross. #findingmedium for missing MEOW and #highlyquestionable for the rest
I think 7c ATT might be the play i was looking for. I didn't like that MATT gave back big overlaps, but ATT is better cause his overlaps score less and they will give back a lane on the A column. The pool isn't too dangerous for those overlaps either. I like it to keep ILKA open. I was kinda lost for options here, didn't see anything besides ilka plays that I liked. At this point I was also not so down about playing with ILKA because I figured I could get away with the S hook and challenge it off if he played it. #findingsmall
JEFE increases his avg score b quite a bit, but also does for mine. With no range implied, JEFE seems fine, but given his bingo heavy range, it seems like B7 FEY is better to not give back higher scoring bingoes and a nice lane. #strategysmall
YET or YELD E9 win the sim easily. It's possible that I missed the Y hook on OGEE, but maybe it didn't seem right to fish at this score. E5 does seem like a good thing to block, but apparently not worth breaking up the rack over. Either #strategymedium or #visionmedium (-6)
ugh, this move is so bad. at least i realized that i can't play 4J O(DE) by itself, it doesn't hit enough and scores abysmally. but LODE bingoes even less so it also sucks. i did see 2L ULNA and considered it for a while, but i hate ROTE and i'm down by 100 pts already, i absolutely need to bingo next turn. i didn't see M1 ENOL despite breathing deeply, so maybe there is no hope. -8 #findingmedium #strategylarge
I didn't like 11A COO(K)IE with what that gave back to him. I also wasn't a fan of getting rid of my E with C11 OPE. KOP isn't bad since I have 2 open Ns, but I think I needed a move that plays longer since CEILO is a bit risky of a leave- 10B PI(C)COLO accomplishes that while also being fairly sound. #findingmedium
Quackle picks 3H YOW, which is tied for the best equity with 13B YOW--OWLY is a point behind, and the three unseen L's do not significantly diminish the gap. I prefer 13B YOW over 3H YOW, as it opens a potentially high-scoring lane on row 14 and doesn't obstruct the lanes on rows 3 and 5. #strategysmall
8H OY is best, followed by 8G YO. TOYO sets up my S on column K, but it is fairly likely for Carl to have an N or S with which to use the spot; and OY and YO have better equity than TOYO. #strategymedium
Shitty attempt at blocking O6 bingos. I did not think about the IER, IES, IED bingos that still fit after N10 GRE(Y). I was considering N8 TIGER(Y) but I thought that gave too many O7 possibilities back. N8 TIGER(Y) is slightly better than this at blocking bingos. Blocking the ELKS hook seemed forced to me at the time, but 15M GUE is best. #STRATEGYSADDEST
K10 IS bings way more. Whatever I play here, he's going to know I'm close to a bing. I might as well increase the bing % and fish the S instead of the N. #strategylarge because this is way worse for bing %.
N1 GAUFERS never wins, obviously; CP slightly prefers 11K UG to FAG, but I was imagining FAG potentially drawing into solid scoring bingos on both columns A and N. The problem with FAG is obviously that first, it empties the bag. Second, I was worried that if Tim has the Y he can outrun me with any reasonable FREETY play, but given that I probably need the Y and either the M or the other blank to even threaten the win, I should just bank on drawing it myself, making blocking it unimportant. At least I made a play that has a nontrivial chunk of winning%. #strategysmall 0:45
i don't know at what point i started playing such lame defense lol. F9 IODATE is fine, or 5D GIE as well. i know it's tempting to block all the things but it's hard to sacrifice so much equity. i don't care about winning, i care about equity. -7 to IODATE, which seems reasonable. i guess i like lowering stdev in this situation. right? maybe this isn't a mistake. #strategymedium maybe
I only remembered ANTEFIXA taking an L, but it is EL. my position if I accept is also not very good, I will probably do OPERA or exchange. #knowledgelarge