this makes the X really powerful, AXES is like a game winning play. She already really likely has an S on her rack, probably not the X but it's possible she kept it with ZA (with AX I12 I'd assume she didn't have it). NIB only allows AXES, whereas BIN allows both axis and axes. am I in a bad enough position to need to win by getting axis? if that's the case I should play BIN. If I think I can win another way I should make it less likely she gets the play, and should play NIB. I didn't consider BI(T) 6F which is pretty cool - I save HADJI for next turn and don't allow the big X possibility. Can I win if she draws the X and I don't draw the blank? I feel like after BIT the game becomes more about the blank, whereas after BIN it's more about the X and AX?S, but the blank could still allow me to bingo if she got the play. Turnover is important here cause of the value of the blank and X, so maybe I should play QUERYING - still saves BIT and HADJI plays, doesn't give anything back.
I'm inclined to not exchange here, even though it seems like a decent option optimally. I think I can outrun here, and I'd like to be able to outrun even if I don't draw the blank. I feel like QUERYING is good even though the sim hates it - I don't allow AX?S plays, I save HADJI and BIT for future turns, at which point she may have played the I or X. I think I should at least play NIB over BIN, my chance of drawing AXIS is pretty low so I should at least make it harder for her to get it. Other than that I have no idea what to do here. #strategysmall
Exch. AIOOOU keeping just the E is better #tacticssad
Spoiler: no nits's were harmed in the playing of this game, except, like, psychologically and in every other way that counts.
I did not know the ATWAIN hook in this situation. So I decided to try to bingo again and rack up additional spread. #knowledgelarge because I would have scored much better than this.
One of my worst nightmares as a Scrabble player: on the Tuesday after this tournament, I was driving to work and I thought to myself, "gee, I think I missed a better bingo than OLIGURIC". Sure enough, I did. H8 (U)RoLOGIC for 83. #findinglarge
I tanked for a long time on this turn just to play this. Sad! Better options are 6E (W)YTE and 10G BYTE, probably. I think I was afraid of giving back too much, but in hindsight that seems delutional because this probably gives back even more. #strategysaddest
okras is the play here. even though RS > NS, the difference is small on this board, and OKRAS gives back enough fewer points from that overlap that it's worth it. i'm still sad about playing KOANS instead of KAONS, which sims half a point higher. it's a tiny difference, but it had a huge effect, and that's why it's important to make as few errors as possible. it seems impossible to get rid of all these little leaks. -1 #tacticssmall #knowledgesmall
stupid quackle. i'm basically just going to get every move wrong this game as it wants me to keep making dumb plays at 14A. yes 14A LOVE scores good and keeps a nice leave but then i have to worry about that spot all game if i don't draw the S! -10 #strategylarge ?
B2 POR(G)Y is nice. I'm committing to catching up without a bingo after SAYER. 3H OY and 3H AY are nice for fishy plays because they're tough to block + I have the floating T, O and N. #knowledgesad
TALLY isn't really a dramatic enough fork to do over just I6 LAZY; a play to the triple after TALLY leaves a horrendous board for scoring if I don't hit a bingo, and hitting one isn't very likely. That being said, LAZY can get me fenced in pretty much immediately as well. Tough spot. I think LAZY is better. #strategysmall
I can't be scared of Joey blocking Row 6 plays at this time. If anything, it would serve as a diversion so that maybe I can hit stuff ending with the C in COME. 7I DAY is fine. #strategymedium
WOT screams S setup to me. I can't help but feel a bit stumped. I did hesitate to do A12 CUSS just because I thought RAIDINGS* was good (and so did he). I wanted a potential comeback response if Evan were to hit a bingo next turn. With that said, I did not see I8 S(A)UCY which would have been nice middle ground between cleaning up the rack and scoring decently. #findingmedium
i spent a little while doing math on this move. 2 of the 43 unseen tiles are Z and J, so the chance he drew at least one of them is 1 - (41/43)*(40/42)*(39/41)*(38/40)*(37/39)*(36/38)*(35/37) or about 30%. First of all, is that actually right? And second, i estimated it as roughly 25% - which is not quite right, but i figured it was close enough. I should figure out a better way to do this kind of math. either way, it is probably for naught because the best play is either NOOGIE or GOOIER, sacrificing 8 pts but keeping a more workable leave, and not opening up as huge of a hotspot. -1.5 #tacticssmall
update: ONIE did not block a lot of bings
Wanted to do HUB to set up the Z plays underneath but thought the math didn't work out. Still, I should be playing more romantically than this. And the math does work out. #tacticssaddest
LOL this is phony! jeez... i remember thinking it looked a little funny, but i was pretty dejected by my record, lol. but even now i thought it was fine. #knowledgelarge
14M AW maybe? quackle mainly likes it because of my score next turn; i can probably bingo if i'm lucky or use the W for some points (for example a lucky WREN). i must have misthought this, the equity difference is massive! -11.5 #strategylarge
considered MUD/DUM but i liked the extra pts and thought it was worth exposing the E, making my rack a little worse, etc. i always gotta take defense into account. -2 #strategysmall
not great; the leave is not good enough. i could do something like 7I WEAR or even the pretty awesome 7I WE -- ACHRRS is a very strong leave through that E. (but would that stay open?). tough move. -6 #tacticsmedium
2B POA is nice #findingsadder. I mean yeah Quackle likes 14B APSO too, simming just below POA, and it scores 30, but I really don't want to open the triple lane for no good reason. Thoughts?
K4 GoRSIEST is best; I didn't bother to iterate the blank. GrISTERS opens only three distinct floaters instead of four, while GoRSIEST weakens 6J and puts the S in row 10, rather than row 11 which has a DWS. #tacticssmall
Plays on column B making EWE block all of Mike's bingos, and they even preserve column E for me to use next turn. Quackle chooses B4 POPE, followed by B6 PE; although I might have chosen PE just so Mike doesn't know my rack. E5 PIE allows AILMENT, ALIMENT, ALUMINA, AMENTIA, and VALIANT at B1. #tacticslarge
Quackle strongly favors exchanging keeping only the S; the best play on the board has over 6% less win chance. I can't explain that, but YIRR has the shortcoming of providing two extra lanes for Betty to play a bingo--columns J and K.#tacticslarge apparently
he would later mention that i got all 10 power tiles but if you notice here it's a great disadvantage to have these tiles in this case. D11 BEG looks standard, i suppose, but so ugly. ugh. -7.5 #tacticsmedium
big oofs all around here, frens. 15A FOREtOL(D), 15A OvERFOL(D), 15A FORsLOE(D) 15B REFLOO(D)s all would have been fine #KNOWLEDGESADDEST #FINDINGSADDEST #VISIONSADDEST
now, the same idea is potentially completely ridiculous and bad. I have to give up here and play JETES or JEES, the latter of which I missed. This is the problem with playing B(A)D last turn. One of the reasons is that I will have K column plays to score next turn, and I should play those. But I forwent those last turn. So it's sort of a paradox, and very human to try and continue in the same vein as last turn. But now, I'm sacrificing far more by not taking the points. This play is very commital and I'm basically deciding to never play on the K column unless Lou plays a bingo elsewhere or plays on the 15 row. Quackle hates this because it mainly assumes I will use the K column when I miss. The point is that when I miss, I'm more and more screwed by not scoring. #strategymedium
Once I made this play I realized it was not good. There's one place left to score easily on this board and it's E5. If I draw poorly after this, I won't necessarily be able to withstand a bingo and a scoring play from Noah. E5 BO is far and away best #strategylarge
well. one O unseen, and i have to hope he doesn't have it, i think. but quackle thinks this is too much and that i should exchange all -- i might agree, actually. -5 #strategymedium
i wanted to open even a crappy lane so this board doesn't fully shut down on me. -8, 12D WHAT sims better, maybe i'll get lucky. idk, hard to know how bad my move is really. #strategymedium
rough, but I need to find EAU 9M for 2 less. This is just slightly too reckless. EAU sacrifices 2 points, but sims 4 better. UVEA doesn't create a great lane, and I have OHMS that is hard to deal with, as well as the deterrents on the F column and 11 row. Marginal lanes are good to deter opponents from playing overly defensively, but also sufficiently defensively. The difference between the two can simply be lack of information. #strategysmall #findingsmall
not sure what happened here. If I missed VIEW, if I didn't think it scored anything, what. It's a ton better. I played this whole game like Cesar, especially starting here. #findingmedium
I think the better equity play of J2 KA is now a bit too dangerous. Yes, I am changing course rather quickly. But of course since OKA is also good, that's why its valuation is quite a bit higher than my play. #strategysmall?
i did not want to burn the last S with FIDOS. perhaps it just scores too much. i thought i needed to score and then bingo next turn making IFS. the main issue is that FID is too easy to overlap downwards. so FIDO > FID (besides having the better leave). i was playing most of this game on autopilot to protect myself i think; i realized my win % was very low, so i didn't want to spend too much time stressing about it. -2.5 #tacticssmall
This turn, I completely failed to see TRISTE(Z)A through the Z, which was yet another case of complete blindness to a bingo I looked for. I realized I had TRISTEZA right after I made my play.
I also looked for 5-way overlaps, but failed to see the only one, STARETS at I2. That's the play. I really didn't want to make an X spot, so failing to see STARETS and TRISTEZA, I could still make an effort to see RHEOSTAT, which doesn't create the X spot. #findinglarge
Well, this wins every time, as I calculated, but according to Quackle this is the worst play that does. It calls for 12B TOEA, which does look pretty good, keeping two consonants. #strategymedium
now i'm treading water but should still be strongly favored to win if i make the right play here. 6I NEWIE is fine, score 11 more and keep a more balanced leave at least! argh! -10 #strategylarge
i need to keep fishing. 9G D(I)F is totally fine. mistake here. #strategylarge -10 (fetid at 13I is a lot better, i didn't even think of it because i was not focused and playing like garbage)
7L GRR has a considerable positional advantage over this placement. Leaves the easier 7s lane open on row 10, but moreover blocks the R and T in OVERTLY that aren't super useful to me and leaves the A in FAKED alone. #tacticssmall
missed GLOOPY in the same spot, which I imagine has to be better. PHYTOL I didn't count, but it seems potentially worth playing due to scor. POTTY looked awful. #findingsmall
XI C9 might work enough that it's worth playing? Man, plays like that are so hard to pull the trigger on. I think Michael would even sniff the setup sometimes. Dunno? XED in the same spot is probably a bit better, which I figured afterwards, just liked the E a lot more than the I. #tacticssmall