from this position arises (edit: what I thought was) the most amazing endgame sequence I've ever seen a sub-1000 rated player play. I genuinely thought I was Q-sticking here. (edit: And I was)
Quackle's choice is N1 NU, and it seems to win by 209 according to its endgame analysis, so at least that's consistent with its estimations here. Still don't know if I should trust this.
#endgamesaddest
-3 exch R actually sims ok, although DOR sims better on 4-ply. main problem with DOR is that it's relatively easy to block and i only hold one hook for it. i thought of GRIND as well but didn't consider -R. #strategysmall
This is an instructional moment as 6H ATT sims best, which I didn't consider because of the leave, but I retain the S which is really good on the resulting board. #strategysaddest
-2 to ODE blocking N(A)N and slowplaying. He also would have gone over if I did that. Takes guts. #endgamesmall
something was underscored by 2, so final recorded as 388-380
looks pretty close, OC(R)EA is also worth considering. I need to bingo pronto and CO(R)IA lets me do that the most of the 24+ point plays. AERIE felt like it put me a bit too far out of one bingo range. In retrospect, I think OC(R)EA might be the best because it truly forks the board, not letting him parallel on columns G or I, whereas after CO(R)IA he can get stuff like B(O)TT or whatever that blocks everything. I don't expect him to make these plays too often but it's not an option I want to allow. #strategysmall
no clue. I thought about this and AVANT. Regretted not doing AVANT. The V is bad reminder #1248793751 and also no need to open unneccessary lanes #strategysmall
Only four possible racks from the unseen tiles yield bingos: EEINRSS, EEIORSS, EENORSS, and EINORSS. PI blocks EEINRSS and EINORSS at N7, but I had not seen that Carl could play 9H ROSERIES or 10H SORENESS. N7 PADRI, RAPT, or RIANT or 9H RITARD blocks all possible bingos. #findingsmall
I didn't have to phony here. I saw TOKENING but it looked awful, and missed everything else. KENoT(R)ON is a word I was not familiar with, and it plays for 94! I also had NEKTON(I)c. #knowledgelarge
Thought this was a good phony though. I chose the more volatile spot because it was less likely to get challenged if it meant leaving big spots open.
nothing great dig for here, or rather, too much bad versus only some good. Better to just score a few lesss and keep a bit better with OLDE 3J. #strategysmall #findingsmall
I missed 2e YOU, which I think is the play here. I liked this more than coyau just for defense, but I think YOU is probably more defensive cause he can start with any vowel or S. He has an R more often than usual given he played one and also is keeping bingo tiles, but the H1 YOUR spot isn't massive. #findinglarge
there are no scoring spots on this board, and the pool is clunky. Therefore this is actually a really poor decision over U(K)E or (K)UE. KUE was my other consideration, but I liked how this kept a bunch of things open and allowed me to sscore well next turn if I couldn't bingo. #tacticslarge
I thought this may not have been best but if I lost I knew it would be close, which was important at this point in the tournament because I just need to beat Alec on spread to make the finals. However, it looks like 13K (D)HOW is just too good here. #timesaddest
had mistracked an L I think, so I didn't know if QUITE was going to give something huge back. It was either that or it was better than QUIET. -2 #endgamesmall
Quackle slightly prefers 11B ODA and OCA, sacrificing some points to gain a solid chunk of bingo%. That does make sense. JAGAS overlapping plays still go down after CANOED, and JESTINGS is still wide open, so I shouldn't be scared to make JAGAS plays more accessible after ODA/OCA, especially at a deficit. #strategysmall - forgot to record time.
tough endgame. I have to block MELODIA (and EARLDOM which I missed). Didn't see any way to do this and save two outs, but NOM(O)I does it. MORI(O)N is very gutsy and also leaves outs. -10 #endgamelarge
WEEDIER only plays in Collins! :( WEIRD might just give up too many points. JEWED or WIDEN sim better partially for that reason -- i also bingo slightly more often after JEWED. -2 #strategysmall
i spent a very long time on this move before finally deciding to give up and try to cut spread. 14I OY is the obvious equity play here, and much of the time it's just met with another big comeback. i was up around 1000 spread and 3 games on the rest of the field, so the only way to lose the tournament is to lose 3 games by a combined 500 spread points. now that it looks like i'm going to get blown out here, i wanted to try to stem the bleeding and keep scoring tiles. #strategysmall
This partial block of the REDTAILS floaters was in response to his short exchange, but this is phony. I think this time GETAS is the play even with a strong range implied. #strategylarge
I should do I6 UNROOF. I figured he always has a Z bomb with the second A of ACETA, but maybe sometimes whiffs the top one, but it draws into stuff enough on a four tile pull that I should be blocking both. Unfortunately, I looked through the R for only a little while for plays like that, figuring I had nothing worth playing, and didn't think of it as an option. #findingmedium
I'm really surprized to see RAX F4 win the sim. I wanted to keep that RAZ combo for 14H. I suppose drawing the Q without that U is pretty bad, but I wouldn't think burning the R and the A would be worth it. (-5) #strategysmall
i thought i had a better chance of drawing the X if i just bingo now. the worst thing is that ELEPIDOTE is not available because i have the last two Es. quackle thinks I should do 15L DUPE or PULE which i considered. maybe i draw the X, use it, and bingo the following turn?? -7 #strategymedium. honestly i don't know how to compare the two plays.
Another difficult decision. What's better, BOWER for 40 keeping IU, or OUREBI for 33 keeping W? It's close, but I think BOWER actually was the play. It scores seven more points and opens a new lane on Column O. Also, even though IU is a terrible leave, it 's probably better than a W for bingoing, and at this score I probably need to bingo. (-1.2% win chances) #strategymedium
i considered trying OVERDARK* here. he might have let it go after an incorrect challenge. REVOKED C3 sims best though; didn't spot it. -1 #findingsmall
this is very bad for preventing bingos, given his last move. i was thinking i can't win without drawing the blank here. while that's still likely, if i play COAPT at 14G that scores quite a bit and maybe i can draw an H or something to score next turn. i don't know. but COPAL is wrong. Quackle likes 10K COAPT best, i don't really get it. -10.5 #strategylarge
This play doesn't even sim because that's how bad this rack is. Probably should have exchanged down to CR instead of forcing my way through this. #strategylarge
Quackle prefers 7G GIBE for two more points to my GIBE pretty strongly; I would've thought 7E GIBE does a little better on defense relative to 7G than simulation indicates but I suppose it's still quite easy to get a seven down on rows 6 and 9. There's also 7E BEGIN available for maximum defense; that looks pretty good too. #tacticssmall
ugh this is too difficult. with such a small % chance of winning, i don't know what's right anymore. it seems in these types of situations i have to limit the amount of damage he can do, so something like 4K AY or YA is going to sim best despite keeping a U. the problem with GUY, even though it does play short and keeps a good leave, is that it gives back so many points; i know this but have to hope he can't punish it too much. -3 #strategymedium
out of the EO/EE + FS/WS comboes, I liked EEFS best, at least right now. the W could be useful at other times, and maybe FOE is a bit better than WOE here. I didn't like the FO combo, so WOE over WEE, plus the hooks. I can also do EEEW here. I didn't like EEOS after FEW, inviting overlaps that I won't be able to hit well, and making no S hook. Q likes FOE best by a bit, I bingo a smidge less than after WOE but score a bit better w the W for overlaps. #tacticssmall
Absolutely insane. To make matters worse, despite slowing down for a half a minute to look for row 9 overlaps, I somehow fail to spot PLATIEs for 3 more. This time, creating the X and Z bomb spot at 10F is somewhat contemptible, seeing as Quackle cannot quickly decide if it likes sacrificing the 3 points or not. PARTIbLE has some decent control. I can see attempting to close things off within 3 moves or so after PARTIbLE. After PLATIEs, not as much, since the R and S of MATADORS and the E and R of ROILIER aren't very intuitive to deal with without opening new threats, despite their closeness. Furthermore, the P on B9 can always be used to make desparate forking plays. Still, I rate this as yet another mistake. #findingsmall
I didn't like (W)OOD instead because she had first dibs on extensions that she certainly knows better than me, but (W)OAD is totally fine here. This is too aggressive with the Z. #findingsmall