Challenging off CULK was a blunder as he can now block my Z setup with ILK. I was low on time and intachallenged. I still went for the setup, but the block is to obvious. #timesaddest
i didn't think of G7 HERD. it seems relatively easy for him to block downards though, with either HERD or my play (column G down, or even something like AE, lol). i'm in more trouble than quackle thinks. quackle likes N12 DENE but that doesn't open a new lane. should i do it anyway and try to open a lane later? i don't know. -4 #tacticsmedium
I now realized that I wasn't actually ahead, but this still looked quite strong to block the easy scoring spot, so I was happy to take it over XI(S) for 55. This is valid strategy for blitz, since I'm also leaving myself with FEH 4F for next turn, but the position is obviously richer than that. Not playing 4 tiles is good here because neither of us wants too draw the Q. The pool is very bad so blocking row 1 isn't really all that valuable, except for a game-ending play there like WEARY, TEARING, YEARN, which happens only once in a while. 14F XI(S) is definitely the stronger choice. #tacticslarge
Taking the scoring spot at N2 and setting up an S-hook. N1 EE# is better execution, as it scores 7 more points both immediately and on average next turn. #tacticsmedium
I think 7c ATT might be the play i was looking for. I didn't like that MATT gave back big overlaps, but ATT is better cause his overlaps score less and they will give back a lane on the A column. The pool isn't too dangerous for those overlaps either. I like it to keep ILKA open. I was kinda lost for options here, didn't see anything besides ilka plays that I liked. At this point I was also not so down about playing with ILKA because I figured I could get away with the S hook and challenge it off if he played it. #findingsmall
(R)IP might be the play here. I bingo a bit more than after TIPI. (H)ILI is also nice to make a better lane, I bingo quite a bit. this is a bit too closed and doesn't bingo quite enough #findingsmall
I don't know if I ever realized I had SOLUNAR. My handwriting later in the game doesn't give anything away. I know I never alphagrammed just the rack on my scoresheet, just 8s through the I and T. #findingsaddest
crap!! i did that thing i do when i'm down early and instead of trying to keep a good leave i turn over tiles like an idiot! 3F OWIE keeps a great leave of GILN especially with the open letters on this board. -10.5 #strategylarge
Quackle likes 11I OMEN a lot, blocking columns J-L and, to some extent, M. I wanted to keep my N for E4 INFLUXES, and ATOM is the best equity play, but blocking the board is of greater importance. #tacticssmall
CODA is the sorrt of play I usually make, but COS scores way better than GOS here. this is also only slightly more defensive, and the top left is gonna get plays in the next turn so I'm not worried about the lane longterm. for reference, i score over 10 more after DAGO than CODA! I can also score an extra 6 points next turn by playing GOOD 2c, keeping the A for overlaps and a better leave overall. that is probably the play, it gives up fewer bingooes than DAGO as well. #findingsmall
I normally play GUV but I not only liked the board shape after VUG vs GUV, but I also liked that I could re-hook if he played VUGG to VUGGY or even VUGH to VUGHS. GUV reduces opponent score by 3 over VUG immediately. hm so perhaps VUG helps him more than it helps me. #tacticssmall
a little sad that FORGETS was blocked and he didn't give me any floaters for a bingo. i was thinking if he bingoes through the L he'd at least give me an E for GOREFEST! i considered GOFER, but not strongly enough, I guess; should have counted it and compared to OFTER. quackle prefers FOG(Y) best, keeping a great leave that bingoes > 2/3 of the time. i tend to dislike not taking points early and staying within striking distance; if FOGY doesn't work out I'll fall farther behind. It's hard to really know. -3 #strategysmall
In a do-over, I might do N7 UN(AXED). While UNTAXED does accomplish my objective of opening up another 2 bingo lines while behind, UNAXED is worth the 3 point sacrifice since it bingoes 20% more often. I like that a little better. UNTAXED drew a hold but was correctly accepted. #strategysmall
Too defensive or nah? I wanted to block 1A bings and 12E MUTUE(L) creates an S hook (he might not know RIPERS). I await your hatemail. 12E MUTUE(L) and 12M UTU are probably okay? #strategymedium
This set in motion a very sad tournament for me with regards with spread. I know there are many more examples of this, where I could have won by so much more in a game that ended up being very tight. EMBODIER seemed totally ridiculous to me, since IMBODIER* was surely invalid. But that is logical. Not NWL-based thinking will not get you far in NWL. #knowledgelarge
Pretty interesting sim result here. Quackle's favorite play here is F7 FROG, followed by 2J HOG, 8L FAIR, 2J FOG, then my move of 2J FOH, then 8L FARO. They're all really closely packed together in valuation. Terry just bingoed and the board is loaded with high-equity scoring spots so simulation is going to be even more accurate than usual. FROG is both the highest scoring and most defensive move, cutting off SLEW and badly damaging the scoring potential of any racks Terry draws with the X in it. (By contrast, the Z plays all over the place on this board and there's little I can do about it.) I didn't think of FROG at all, unfortunately. On the other hand, I'm losing and might like SLEW to stay open. HOG vs FOG vs FOH at 2J is quite interesting. Sim prefers HOG, perhaps expecting me to get down some much heavier bingos with SHEN and THEN afterwards. My play of FOH gives me the highest bingo% on my next move, but nevertheless trails HOG by 3 points per turn because of those heavy bingos I draw into, and which stay open a huge amount of the time thanks to the other good scoring spots available. I'll give FROG a #visionsmall and HOG a #tacticssmall.
Wolfram remarked that he should have just kept the T after losing the challenge (or something to that affect) which is why I favored this over N1 AROID, but A10 (A)DAGIO is probably just better. #visionsadder
Good thing I saw the only 7 in this rack. I needed to see the SEDGY hook on this and play this at 6D for 2 less not giving back nearly as many points. #visionsmall
looks like I chose wrong here. M1 MODI, 6D ROD, 6D ROM all look worth playing here. I liked opening the top left with this play, but I also set up QAT and X plays, which are really annoying. ROD is probably my favourite of the bunch. #strategysmall
i didn't think of PRIMATAL. when we talked about it at the end of the game Lou told me it took an S.. sheesh, maybe it's better i didn't play it or i would have likely lost a turn on an S hook. #findingsmall
I think I missed 3B NA(I)F. That seems good here as well, since I am not sure of SEPTORIAS, so a lot of the value of OF decreases if I choose not to play SEPTORIAS. #knowledgesmall
N6 EAU sims pretty well for something that's so scary. I like 9G A(R)EA. I guess with the former I set up my M and with the latter I score some points. Thinking this might be a #strategysadder
F9 (BIG)GS keeps me within scoring distance, though it blocks a lane, so I like F9 (BIG)G. Unfortunately, I have never seen a single word in my life, so I play H7 G(EN). Not great, in hindsight, because it does kinda self-block bingoes to the T. HOWEVER, spoiler alert, it does actually work out for me in the end somehow. Note to self and moral of the story: learn words. #STRATEGYSADDEST
Stupid J draw. While it is basically a tossup between this and 10B JADES, 3G JA(C)ALES is worth it despite how much that could give up. I played this turn too scared. #strategylarge
this was very tough. (B)I(Z)E comes to mind. I really didn't like my position here, and felt the need to score. However, this is just a terrible leave, more terrible than WU would be. Just play BIZE. Tunnel vision. #findingmediu
I chose this over AY/YA plays because I hate F's and because AY/YA plays close bingo lanes. But ?AFIS > ?AISY, and 3M YA makes column O a bit harder to use. #strategymedium
I thought this would bring his bing % down significantly compared to better equity plays, but The Duck says no, only by 1-2 percentage points. #strategymedium
I6 HE(R)BAGED is available here as my only decent chance back into the game. But I talked myself out of it! I also talked myself out of DEBAG! I have played too many games in which an option I am unsure of is invalid and reveals to me that I was too hasty with the comeback attempt. Scrabble is psychological warfare sometimes, and I am all but shielded from it. B(A)DGE is also not as bad as it looks, since 4 R's and 3 D's are already gone. #knowledgelarge
Sim despises this. I get it, EEIO is weak despite the lopsided C/V ratio unseen and I'm still just letting the LABS hook sit there undisturbed. I was close to doing 11E ZODIAC but balked at the possibility of Vince opening column A with a play from 12A, creating situations with multiple very dangerous bingo lines available. 10D AIZLE is a fine way to score nearly as well as ZODIAC, block a couple lines, and make it more difficult to open the left side of the board while also scoring anything. #strategylarge
I'm so bad at tactical defense, honestly. I always overestimate 7s lanes and think I'm fancy by playingsomething "defensive" like HERL when really I'm allowing way more bingoes. L(A)THER is fine as a standard play, even with his range it is still a good play, I'm not giving back so many extra bingoes that wouldn't play otherwise. If I really want to be defensive I should do L(A)TH or something, or even HERL D6. #tacticslarge
Well, I missed URODELANS, so that's not good. But Quackle also hates my choice of SOUND over something like L10 DUO. My thinking was that on this board, the S isn't really a key tile; the key tiles are the I to play TINY or LINY hooking QI, the H to play HO/HUN, and the X just because it's the last power tile. Rather than play L10 DUO, I wanted to get more cracks at any of these three tiles to maintain tempo advantage. #findinglarge for sure and not sure if this is a #strategymedium as Quackle indicates it is.
D11 (T)OTTY seems right, I hit SIZ(Y) with an I, DOZ(Y) with an O, ZEDS or DE(CRYING) with an E, and a whole host of other fun scoring plays exist because I kept the Z, the best tile in Scrabble. #knowledgemedium #findingmedium
Quackle says I can win 1/4 times with but I'm pretty sure it's lying to me beacuse I played them out and I don't see it. I have no idea if I have a win here or what the best play is. Regardless this play is terrible and I had no time. #strategylarge #timelarge
giving him ES as a leave. i also have to assume that he doesn't know BANDA (for the purposes of getting lucky, i mean). matt did a similar play to this one a few weeks ago and i lost because i didn't block it. in this case, my rack is so garbage that quackle thinks i should mostly ignore it and try to clean up my rack. he probably won't bingo - the bag kind of sucks, but there's big tiles out there so his next score is going to suck for me. the main problem with ID is that it only reduces his average score by about 13 next turn (from 61 to 48), which is not enough to warrant making such a bad sacrifice on my end. so this situation is not at all similar to the one two weeks ago, when i actually had a great block. i really should have done some math here and realized ID was bad. 13K IRID is the play -- -7.5 #strategymedium