S isn't amazing here so it's best to take 13 points with SN(E)LL 6H which I considered. Also better to keep RS here, the vowels to play through do not comprise of an E so the D is not very good. #strategysmall
As unconventional as this looks, I was not doing L10 (TI)BIAE with a lead. Probably L10 (TI)BIA would have been fine because this pool is very clunky. Don't play scared and pass that up. #strategylarge
C13 AWN 10 points is way too many to give up. I saw AWE and discounted it because it's still possible to trip-trip through the E, but the N in that spot is a lot more defensive (opponent's avg score goes up by 7 compared to AWN). My play doesn't stop WR bingos #findingsadder #tacticssad
damn so it turns out A12 (F)LIC wins if I draw N or S, and I11 FLIC/FLIR or K11 ERIC win if I draw the S. I had like none time (left beef) on my clock by this point so i hadn't even tracked. also, #knowledgesad for letting FIES* go. #timesaddest #endgamesaddest
this was probably the most idiotic thing I did at Nationals. I saw that I could probably find a 2x2, but thought that I could just hook AY and score just as much, since the 2x2 was just 6 more points, equivalent to hooking AY! So I just went for the first thing I saw. Unfortunately, math does not work like that. #sad #findingsmall
I considered RESMELT, but wasn't sure on it. spend a few minutes trying to find a double double here. #knowledgeSAD
Also missed some good overlapping 7s. #visionSAD
I did not see 2D YeX for 62. That's a lot of points and there are many I's left for ING bingos, so that seems correct. I considered this, YANG 2J and (TA)NGY. It seemed good to go straight for a bingo now, but it could be that patience is in order, keeping the X again to try and bomb it. #findingmedium
This play doesn't even sim because that's how bad this rack is. Probably should have exchanged down to CR instead of forcing my way through this. #strategylarge
M7 MIB is a lil better it seems, at least defensively. -4 #tacticssmall -- actually, i can't see why AEIP results in a higher average score next turn (but lower bingo %).. anyone?
Holy defensive board after 9H IOTA! That might even force him to exchange occasionally. I was not fond of a super tight board early on since my ADY leave wouldn't have served me that well. But IOTA sems to sim ahead of TOADY because Brandon averages 7 points less after IOTA. #visionmedium
I felt like he's always gonna block with plays at B12 after something like C11 LUG and the X seemed really important so I went for turnover and score, but maybe the leave is just too bad. Scoring under 20 in this situation just seemed hopeless but maybe I need to keep opening and go for a bingo through the V or something. I dunno. #strategysaddest
did not see that 13K was better, since I draw into QA(T) simply 14J when I draw an A, and a bunch of other plays through the T that score 60+ #findingsmall
Wow. I had severe tunnel vision on this first move. I only saw X(U) which was very defensive and draw into some stuff like OTOLOGIC and ZOOLOGIC or something else if more stuff is opened. The other thing I considered was IGLOO 9J to try and set my X up. I totally failed to consider another X setup play, COL(U)GO I5. It's a less worrisome version of IGLOO, giving around 2 points fewer back on average, fewer bingos, and giving me a little bit more. IGLOO is more defensive down the line, which is good if things fall into place, but not good when they don't. I also totally missed OXIC 7J, which is standard. I would consider this a mistake over COL(U)GO for sure, even though IGLOO appears to benefit me over time. FWIW X(U) sims similarly well to the X-setup options, and it also seems to complicate the game the most. With so few moves available in the position, I find it most outrageous that I failed to see other candidates, and am more concerned about that than anything else. #findingsmall #tacticssmall
Somehow missed 13I VAV - although it sims completely evenly with FAVER I think I prefer VAV for a couple reasons. First, the FHRT leave synergizes really well with the row 4 scoring lane forming CH. Second, in this particular scenario, it's not clear to me that Winter will know PAWAW and if I draw the W I could score a boatload with it at 14J to the DWS. #visionsmall
Getting a decent S hook on the board while the equity hit to do so is minimal - I say decent because it takes too many other hooks. Of course, the AANOS leave is pretty gross. It looks like H1 NADA is actually a fair bit better to create an S-specific hook and undouble the A's. #tacticsmedium
I think I took like 7 minutes here at least ugh, there's nothing better than this or (W)AgTAILS and (M)ATILdAS. This gives too many overlaps. #findingsmall
and as all these thoughts permeated my mind, such as "I should lose this game now, I deserve it." and "am I going to blow this whole tournament now?", I once again faced fake results orientation. I saw REAROUSE, then REASSURE, andd wondered if there was an anagram. I got close, but failed to recognize my high-prob 7. ERASURE keeps me well in the game. #findinglarge
C7 ECU is good here because I'm still scoring enough to stay in reach and, assuming my opponent has the J, I can still pick up a bingo after this. #strategylarge
J6 ZYGA# has the best equity and saves the S for column B making SWIG, at the cost of making column L harder to hit. Quackle prefers it slightly over ZEPS, but not over ZEPS +5 (Chris challenged UGHS). #strategysmall
could not find a play to make here. IMP 8C looks best, and I also missed I6 KIT which is simple. This sucks but at least I have a chance of being able to shut the board down after this, but IMP is just superior #findingsmall
I8 SPOOL looks a little better. NORSS doesn't even bingo more than NRS and is much higher variance, plus SPOOL creates another S hook I can use. #strategysmall
Quackle despises this, but I think it's fine - GOO isn't a good leave but the PLAYMATES spot is quite dangerous and IDEAL does as good a job of blocking it as I can while scoring a lot in the process. I saw GEOIDAL but it leaves lots of stuff like ZEES there and also puts an A in a dangerous spot at K8. Maybe a #strategysmall, but I still think my play is ideal.
I knew TRED* looked strange but i also convinced myself that it was a common english word. Also, I missed L4 FUND(Y), so #findingsadder and #knowledgesaddest for letting the phony go
I think VOCAB needs to come down here. Although it doesn't do as good a job at outrunning as GUACO, it lowers his bingo% from 22 to 13. I may have to go all in on defense here, it will be tough to outrun (if he bingoes he's still drawing into a great pool). If he bingoes after GUACO I could possibly win, I'll be down at least 25 (for 11 row bingoes), an out in two will probably not win with GV in hand. RE- bingoes will win the game instantly for him. I think VOCAB is the play, outrunning with GUACO isn't viable enough. #visionmedium
I was still tilted from missing the winning pass in the previous game against Mark, so I thought I'd make up for it and pass here. N1 VEND is fine. #strategysad
Damn, I could have played a whole ass valid word and wont the game. Even 6B V(u)LN at 14 or 5B T(R)ONS at 10 lets me go out in two. I didn't even need to bingo. #STRATEGYSADDEST and also #knowledgesaddest for the phony
i considered trying OVERDARK* here. he might have let it go after an incorrect challenge. REVOKED C3 sims best though; didn't spot it. -1 #findingsmall
I should play E6 (F)RUG here. an A draw gets me kANZ(U), an O pONZ(U), and the Z has value later on once stuff opens up a bit, which is pretty necessary at some point. #strategymedium
I was very intent on getting a bingo next turn, but I might not even win if that happens.
I'm down, so I guess I need to be aggressive by playing L2 ETCHInG. I didn't want to do it because there was still an F, two Ls, and an R unseen. IDK, maybe I distract my opponent with this while I hope to bingo elsewhere. big oof. #strategysmall
didn't know DOMATIA#, though this rack did scream of bingo. I missed DAIM(Y)O and OID(I)A which both significantly improve on this. I looked for something like DAIMYO, such a tough thing to spot. OIDIA should not be tough to spot, but I was intent on leaving the S hook open and totally distracted by what had just happened. Really bad. #findingSADDEST #knowledgeSADDEST
gotta do 15F BU(S)TI, leave 7 in the bag and set up my S to score. there's hella vowels out, so i dont need to worry too much. #strategysaddest also #knowledgesad for challenge
hmm. I wasn't sure how to proceed here, but I thought this woud lead to the most bingos, and opening was important. However, this play gives a ton back, and bingo chances are low regardless. It seems better to either score 24 with K5 TOW, play OUTGO 10C (hate it) or play the weird-looking GU(A)CO F3 to prevent big QADI underlaps. Quackle sees this as a significant mistake, and it's hard to disagree. It definitely didn't feel right. This board will open from the R in SPIDERS, and the 10 row is hard to deal with. #strategymedium
E4 FEO(D) is obviously best but we've already established that i dont know COWHEEL. i saw D11 (H)OUF but thought it was too easy to overlap/kill the S hook, but didnt take into account that i need to keep scoring/can bingo elsewhere #knowledgesaddest #strategysaddest