This isn't terrible. But keeping the S after OATY actually helps him more than it helps me since my average goes up and his average next turn goes down. ISU is a very weak leave, therefore, I should have done 13B OUTSAY over OATY. OUTSAY actually opens up 2 nice scoring spots and is simming ahead of OATY. #strategysmall
i don't know at what point i started playing such lame defense lol. F9 IODATE is fine, or 5D GIE as well. i know it's tempting to block all the things but it's hard to sacrifice so much equity. i don't care about winning, i care about equity. -7 to IODATE, which seems reasonable. i guess i like lowering stdev in this situation. right? maybe this isn't a mistake. #strategymedium maybe
cool -- bag has good enough letters (including the blanks) and is consonant-heavy enough that quackle wants me to keep S instead of ST here. oops. -0.5 #focus #tacticssmall
J: I thought about this and then realized BLOTCHED probably doesn't have an anagram. Still thought that I was desparate enough. I had O7 GYBED though, and honestly only saw it after losing the challenge. This is on one of Carl's phonies lists and apparently he had just recently mentioned it to Sid. #knowledgelarge
C: During my insomniac studying session on Friday night/ Saturday morning, this was one of the phonies I studied. I always see BLOTCHED/BEDCLOTH* but I was ready for it this time. Some sick timing!
nooooothing is worse than ur opponent opening with a bingo and having a shitty response. Q likes UNBIND a lot more, I really considered it to put pressure on and maybe to induce a mistake. I should have done that, I got fixated on making this JIN spot and keeping the G open and stuff like that, but I don't hit enough with this. #strategymedium JUT is also better, or JUG. I do hit 1/5 about, but this doesn't seem good enough. also doesn't really keep things open if I play horizontally with DJINN
This sims way, way back: I didn't see EH 10A. No one mentioned this in either the commentary or the chat, which vindicates me slightly. SHH must be difficult to spot for everyone. (-12) #visionlarge
The Duck says K9 (PO)ND, I have no idea why. I thought I had to try and go out in two, I don't know what POND does. Anyway, #strategylarge or something.
I didn't see 12H BER(R)ETTA or 12H BAR(R)ETTE here but they all sim very closely. An E in the 5th position of a 3x3 isn't usually scary, but after Richard's last play, even if I saw the anagrams, I might still do this after I will be up 2 bingoes. It's a close call. #strategylarge
I think it might be fine to cash in immediately with 2J ZE(A)lS immediately which I didn't even see. I'm up by enough that I can comfortably just score. #findinglarge
Hide your eyes, folks. Missing OR(Y)X until a few seconds after I hit my clock. The big issue was that I don't see the word ORYX quickly enough. The next big issue is that I was concerned that I drew RUX to my bingo leave. The next smaller issue is that I played too quickly. This is a bush-league error that puts me back over 30 points, the leave of ERRSU being a few points worse than ERSU despite hitting a few more bingos. #findinglarge
-14 ! bad bad move here. i liked it thematically; blocking a few vertical bingo lanes. quackle prefers three moves at 12K - PAW, MAW, WAP. ordinarily, with a nice lead, it would be foolish to open the board like that. however, her bingo chances are very low - there's only 1 E, lots of I's and other ugly letters left. so PAW is good! #strategylarge #focus #bag
PEOY* #KNOWLEDGESADDEST Also Quackle likes 13A QATS but i'm not about that dangerous life. Not that I made the correct decision, because my opponent ended up playing for the same amount of points under 4J QAT next turn anyway #strategylarge
considered just 10B FID. the amazing K4 WIF(EH)OoD is available for MORE pts than the bingo, keeping an R. but FID still sims best. oops. got a bit too greedy/scared since matt has beaten me like 6 times in a row. -5.5 #strategymedium
I thought this may not have been best but if I lost I knew it would be close, which was important at this point in the tournament because I just need to beat Alec on spread to make the finals. However, it looks like 13K (D)HOW is just too good here. #timesaddest
i had about 30 seconds or so on my clock. i didn't think he was going to let me play OVATIONS, so i was looking for a Q stick. then he did this. i didn't think he had given me a bingo, and i was only looking to the right. i saw novations on my rack at some point but then thought too bad the ON is backwards. i then tried to continue thinking of a way to Q stick him and couldn't figure it out. this is of course a ridiculously bad play, but it didn't register that i wasn't Q-sticking him at the time, i literally just ran out of time. The funniest thing is that slow-playing the game actually works too, i didn't need to find novations. 6F IT wins for example. -120 #endgamelarge #timelarge #nojudgment #meowmeow
C12 OGEE has the best equity, but ODEA is more effective in blocking JIHADI; OGEE still allows -IE- words on row 15. So Quackle prefers OGEE over ODEA by a wider margin now? #strategysmall
big oofs all around here, frens. 15A FOREtOL(D), 15A OvERFOL(D), 15A FORsLOE(D) 15B REFLOO(D)s all would have been fine #KNOWLEDGESADDEST #FINDINGSADDEST #VISIONSADDEST
I think the better equity play of J2 KA is now a bit too dangerous. Yes, I am changing course rather quickly. But of course since OKA is also good, that's why its valuation is quite a bit higher than my play. #strategysmall?
I need to lose by less than 257 to win the tournament. Losing by 257 exactly is a tie. This sets up an OUTVENOM extension that I didn't see for the whole game. 8H ENMOVE is slightly better. #findingsad
I'm not counting this as a knowledge sad because I would have challenged had my opponent not drawn the last tile out of the bag immediately. I did not have a chance to challenge.
5M SUQ #endgamesadder
I think it's fine to pass up 6F FU(C)I on this turn since I give up 10 points to do that. I really need to get the F off my rack and didn't see 14B FU(G)IO, which sims better against a more random rack. #findingsmall
J2 V(E)G doesn't seem good enough to me. quackle says i score a ton next turn though, even if i dont bingo that often? where? FUSED/MODELINGS? -2 #strategysmall
I wasn't too worried about the 12A hotspot, figuring that Mark is on S? and will probably bingo. Quackle has none of that, playing EEEW at 6D. In retrospect, I concur. (-5) #strategymedium
Quackle picks 3H YOW, which is tied for the best equity with 13B YOW--OWLY is a point behind, and the three unseen L's do not significantly diminish the gap. I prefer 13B YOW over 3H YOW, as it opens a potentially high-scoring lane on row 14 and doesn't obstruct the lanes on rows 3 and 5. #strategysmall
I thought my best attempt would be to go for H1 QAT but going for the bingo with 6L (N)AG is much better, probably. Maybe H1 QAT just doesn't score enough, I dunno. #strategysad
Better to fish here, but the Q is in the bag 1/3. 2/3 times I draw a bingo 4/8 times, so there's around a 1/3 shot at CALIBRE, BRAILLE or whatever with the blank. I guess it's worth it considering the likelihood I get Q-stuck after this play. #strategylarge
then I promptly forget about reovirus! I played this to make the position tougher and to keep the S open for me to hit, as I likely have the better rack. this may not actually make his position too hard as he has lucrative hooks with BDFKM. REOVIRUS is a big miss. #visionlarge
The pool is consonant-heavy, so I can afford to keep three vowels. LO(I)N blocks row 12, but K12 NO(E)S or ON(E)S is better execution, blocking row 11 as well. ON(E)S wins a close sim, followed by 9N ON (?) #visionmedium
I have to leave one in the bag here. 14A (T)IP is best because it sets up D12 JAIL to outrun any bing winning everytime according the Championship Player. This is almost as good. #strategymedium