I think if I'm looking to block off some bingoes with the WILTS hook, a better way of going about it is to do J3 gORGE(T)ED because DEROGATE takes an S and a D. I didn't spot GORGETED, and it's also more defensive overall. #findingsmall
No clue why not I11 YID instead for 11 more points; as I said last turn but clearly forgot here, no point grooming rack leave on this board. Also no idea why I spent five minutes to come up with this. #findingmedium #timesmall 2:51
she played ZIT with mucho gusto, and it made me think it was probably a setup. I worried that F(I)G, the best block I saw, was gonna be too big a sacrifice in the case it wasn't. however, I think I should have trusted my read on her since even with just XI implied FIG beats FOE and OF by over 5 points. with QI implied it's an even bigger difference, of course. #strategymedium
Yes, I saw 14F GRIT. And then I saw KITING, and then I saw TIRING which undoubles my R's and saves the K for 14F, and meanwhile I forgot about GRIT. But I have to draw an A for 14F KA or else the sacrifice isn't worth it. Actually, the best plays are at L10: GYRI, RYKE, and KYRIE block row 14, and GYRI in particular saves the K for 14F and doesn't take any of the four unseen S's. #tacticsmedium
then I promptly forget about reovirus! I played this to make the position tougher and to keep the S open for me to hit, as I likely have the better rack. this may not actually make his position too hard as he has lucrative hooks with BDFKM. REOVIRUS is a big miss. #visionlarge
There's really not a whole lot worth keeping on this board. I need a blank desperately and K4 WATTTAG(E) gives me the best shot at drawing one or the last R for LITHER. #findingsmall
i shit you not the sim has me winning 100% of the time after 12K (T)RANQ. Maybe i outrun any bingos that are coming for me. never even saw this spot though, so #findingsaddest, i guess?
Scored as 78. This is the only bingo, but I did not consider playing at 15H after BENT came down; RABIETIc and BIRRETtA are available. #visionmedium #scoring
TA screams she's close to a bingo and has an E, so I wanted to address this. 1A TROKE is a better version of RETOOK because that scores 9 more. #findingmedium
Horrible. For the second time in two games, I'm so fixated on blocking things that I fail to see a high prob bingo - this time it's IRO(N)ICAL. I'm also not quite confident enough on ORGIAC to pull the trigger here when he's aggressively fishing with a 3x3 line open. LOGIC seemed fun over ORGIC because of the extension possibilities, and it's generally good to favor scoring opportunities when you're ahead? #findingsaddest
i don't know at what point i started playing such lame defense lol. F9 IODATE is fine, or 5D GIE as well. i know it's tempting to block all the things but it's hard to sacrifice so much equity. i don't care about winning, i care about equity. -7 to IODATE, which seems reasonable. i guess i like lowering stdev in this situation. right? maybe this isn't a mistake. #strategymedium maybe
L3 SFOR(Z)aTO is not an easy one to spot by any means and is definitely more sound than this with it being the same score. Words starting with SF are not ones you see too often. And I'm glad that I talked myself out of EBONIZER*. #visionmedium
this is actually a pretty counterproductive play. I need to admit I am at a disadvantage and play FIB 7K. This gives back too many bingos and scoring plays. I am setting up points on row 8, but also on row 4 with TEFF. Cool play that I should have seen. I saw BE(D)IM, which is also a lot better. #findingmedium #strategymedium
12C VID for the much better leave and also 100% win. also, notably, H(UM)P seems to win 100% of the time even though it leaves ERECTILE open, probably because i'll score a lot in the triple. i didn't see anything else.. this is a big mistake for spread purposes. #tacticslarge -54
PEOY* #KNOWLEDGESADDEST Also Quackle likes 13A QATS but i'm not about that dangerous life. Not that I made the correct decision, because my opponent ended up playing for the same amount of points under 4J QAT next turn anyway #strategylarge
F2 ENDEAVO(R) #findingsaddest #knowledgesaddest (i love that i stumbled into GROUPIST, which is 13k probability and couldnt find ENDEAVOR, which is 1k probability. i am truly composed of paradoxes)
playing on the 7 row makes a lot of sense here to block X plays like RAX 7K and J/X plays making IKAT. I like 7K GAT upon reflection. I now misread my pevious indicated score of 389 as 387, so 409. instead of 417. #strategymedium
i think this is mostly OK, but i don't like opening an S lane. quackle just likes XU or even burning the blank with REaNNEX! -3 - i have a lot of draws for tinkerer, or a bunch of 7s hooking AJAR. nice possibilities. #strategysmall
Matt's suggestion of H12 (TE)DY after the game seems to be correct. That and 13M GA(T) are the only winning plays. They outrun bingos in every scenario. #strategysaddest
I honestly didn't think too much about this opening. I thought this was clear given that it was a lot more defensive than other stuff. Quackle doesn't like it, at all. Surprising, and I'm not often surprised. -4? #strategysmall
Fairly close, as WIZEN is just better points and leave, but doesn't risk some some sort of disaster o1 type scenario where the blank never realizes its equity. This does a lot more to end the game faster and is a lot less volatile, especially towards S setups that I don't have. Slight edge to WIZEN #strategysmall
or ZA. I only hit 11/46 on the O column but another 6/46 on the 6 row, 4 more on column E, and also OVERTASK on row 15. Looks like a small improvement over AT #tacticssmall
i like this move, but quackle thinks just dropping the H is fine. apparently i bingo close to 89% of the time when i do that! definitely sounds a bit high, since i don't hit bingos with the B or R, and he's going to block some percentage of the time. so i'm not sure. anyway, i didn't see that many possible bingos, and wanted to keep the F for scoring at O4. #strategysmall ?
ahhh CONVENTED! #visionlarge I also kinda regretted playing FUN, it lets him overlap sometimes when he has MNX tiles. The sim is kinda weird cause it has him opening a lot after FUN, but realistically I think I should play (E)NUF to be more defensive. CO(N)N is super defensive but also blows up my rack. #tacticssmall for ENUF.
thought it might be PREFOLIATE* but yeah, never was going to be sure of PERFOLIATE, which is best here. Dave Wiegand thought CARPETBED* was good, as did I. #knowledgesaddest
J4 (BE)TAINE is the only win. I had very little time and didn't consider the plays on row 6. This play also doesn't block 10D D(R)aISENE lol. #timesaddest
1st live tourney for me in 2.5 years! The drive to Holden, MA was well worth it. I stopped off in CT on the way there the day before to hang out with another buddy and had a great time with him too. Despite some word knowledge errors I made this tourney, it felt nice to use real equipment when it mattered most. So here it goes: I saw SLEEPED* but correctly passed that up. Unfortunately, I thought SPEEL was a noun and not a verb, so I chickened out of SPEELED. #knowledgelarge
1) I should know the extensions for PRIZE if I play PRIZE 2) I should have calculated the difference between ZIG and PRIZE better
3) I should see PIEZO ffs #findingmedium #strategymedium
missed all the other bings here. Sadface. RECYCLER I should see, RECOVERY I should see. mERCERY I don't play because it opens a 3x3, I'd best play CE(L)ERY for 28. Also thought he might challenge this. #findinglarge
I think it's fine to pass up 6F FU(C)I on this turn since I give up 10 points to do that. I really need to get the F off my rack and didn't see 14B FU(G)IO, which sims better against a more random rack. #findingsmall
Another awful draw, but this was not a good play. I would do 3I FIT if I had to do this over again as that will create easier access to the left side of the board and disposes of my F. #visionlarge
Pivotal move. I balked at VETCH because I felt that I was in control of the game and saw no reason to create a massive-scoring K hook along row 1. However, after I played, I realized that I should have played FECHT instead of FETCH at the very least because I was holding an S, and adding another S hook would help me dump some bad draws. Looking at it now, though, it might actually be a good thing for me to add the K hook with a slight tempo advantage; given that the X already scores well on top of DUNAM and that the J could score decently paralleling BELAY, adding the K hook to the board makes it more difficult for Winter to draw each and every one of those tiles to stay ahead. As long as I can draw some of JKXS?, I should be able to use them to preserve tempo. Sim prefers VETCH by about 4 points of valuation. #tacticsmedium
I considered RESMELT, but wasn't sure on it. spend a few minutes trying to find a double double here. #knowledgeSAD
Also missed some good overlapping 7s. #visionSAD
N2 OUS is Quackle's interesting suggestion - only the L hooks it in the unseen pool, and I have the N to hook NOUS myself; the AEINR leave also bingos a solid amount here. #strategysmall 10:18
i should actually play G2 JEEP since i know he doesn't have the blank at this point so i should go for it. i can always block it next turn. -10 #strategylarge
But I didn't know A7 EN(HYDROUS). It was available last turn but probably not beter than PHT. Here it's definitely way better than bingoing. #knowledgesaddest
terrible word knowledge continues. I put down STINGE and AIDE, and then take it back, and put this down. Joel says "you weren't going to play that." UGH!!! #knowledgeSADDEST
This play somehow wins a sim, though again a pure equity sim won't give great results for this situation. I really thought this was an error after I played it. I'm not sure what I'm supposed to do here. I thought later that 4K OUMA might be okay, but seems reckless now. I dunno. #strategysad
I had the right idea by keeping my D here for OPED. The only issue was not seeing this at 12L (although Mark could make a play at O8 and block my OPED hook if he didn't draw one himself after his exchange). Either way, L8 (C)OU(R)A(N)TE is the standout play. Not easy to play through 3 disconnected tiles like that. #visionlarge