YET or YELD E9 win the sim easily. It's possible that I missed the Y hook on OGEE, but maybe it didn't seem right to fish at this score. E5 does seem like a good thing to block, but apparently not worth breaking up the rack over. Either #strategymedium or #visionmedium (-6)
I wasn't sure if it was HYOIDS or PYOIDS* that was good. If I was sure, I definitely would have done 13C OsTIARY. Out of the plays I did see, I considered 11A YAk(I)TORI but that gave back too much to him. I also saw this as more sound than I6 AuD(I)TORY or pO(D)IATRY. That said, 13C OsTIARY is clearly best but those -OID words that do or don't take an S are a bit tricky. #knowledgelarge
such an insane bingo available here. Can you find it? This is probably worse than MAY L11 because although I block myself with MAY, I also give him a lot less to work with, and I have the blank, so I don't really need to leave everything open. #tacticssmall #findingmedium #knowledgemedium
OK, I drew some A's - that was lucky. I have to play AI over AIL here; for one fewer point I get 15% of bingo. Why do I keep making this mistake over and over? #tacticssmall 20:10
N1 GAUFERS never wins, obviously; CP slightly prefers 11K UG to FAG, but I was imagining FAG potentially drawing into solid scoring bingos on both columns A and N. The problem with FAG is obviously that first, it empties the bag. Second, I was worried that if Tim has the Y he can outrun me with any reasonable FREETY play, but given that I probably need the Y and either the M or the other blank to even threaten the win, I should just bank on drawing it myself, making blocking it unimportant. At least I made a play that has a nontrivial chunk of winning%. #strategysmall 0:45
It's a strong D setup and S setup in 1 move, but not exactly worth the 15 point sacrifice. I didn't see D4 DEFU(Z)E, which looks quite a bit stronger. #findingmedium
absolutely no idea. f13 lo clearly hits a ton, but he has easy blocks that score, and then i dont have a scoring rack unless i hit a bing to the g, which happens 11/28 times. i think 14e lo is the play, as if he is holding consonants its hard for him to block and score with it, and makes his life a bit more difficult. #strategylarge
1st tile on my rack is after a Q in the alphabet. Not too often one sees that. 11G V(E)R(I)ST appears to clean up the rack much better and is a clear improvement. I did not spot that. #visionmedium
i held for another 3-4 minutes, and decided that it's very likely good and i had to let it go. i'm glad i didn't make a steam challenge. about my play - i wasn't super enthused about blocking some lanes but i just don't know how to catch up without scoring points. i decided i was going to need to get lucky so i thought scoring 32 pts and bingoing asap next turn was better than fishing. H7 SIR sims best though by win %, it makes sense. #tacticssmall
N11 TIKE dominates the sim, winning 73%, and I have no idea why--it scores 26, but it keeps EUU and makes a higher-scoring (though less useful) bingo line on column O, which should in theory prevent me from outscoring if Mitch has a bingo (54%). 7K ETUI, Championship Player's pick and second place on the sim (63% win), allows the fewest bingos (40%) and keeps a leave that can outscore most plays that aren't bingos. Thus I think ETUI is best. KUE does not block column N at all and is thus significantly worse. #tacticslarge
L12 L(I)T(U) is best, scoring while leaving 1 in the bag and keeping good enough tiles to outrun most bingos. I think the only sequence that doesn't win for me after L12 L(I)T(U) is O2 SAKERET -> D1 MERCY -> J10 (OO)S, which is a tie. I did not think CAULDS was valid so I didn't think I could lose here. #knowledgesaddest #strategysaddest
i saw UNROOT at M3 but i didn't like it that much. i'm down a bit over a tempo and there's only a couple of lamish bingo lanes open. UNROOT sets up some overlap possibilities for him. it didn't seem that exciting. but maybe it's right. TAUON gives back 6 more pts on average. -4 #strategymedium
I guess I could empty the bag by doing B(E)NZAL in the same spot. I can comfortably outrun out bingoes he could have. But since I didn't see that, I settled on this. #findingmedium
Seemed a worthwhile gamble; if Tim doesn't have an E or blank it's just so annoying. Quackle slightly prefers M8 PEZANT, 2A PATZER, and 13J GATED. PEZANT opens two lines at once on a board without many good ones; PATZER creates a moderately annoying threat on column A. Marlon noted that GATED sets up both ZAG and ZIT as potential overlaps on row 11, which I didn't consider. All three plays draw more tiles towards a blank with both unseen than ADZ does. Upgrading this from small to #strategymedium. 11:14
I was panicked at this point because I thought he might be close to a bingo which would be game over. This put me deep in the tank and I tunneled on row 13 plays and column J plays. 12J GU(C)K is just clearly best and it's not even close. I need to calm down and just play the equity here. #strategysaddest
Damn, I could have played a whole ass valid word and wont the game. Even 6B V(u)LN at 14 or 5B T(R)ONS at 10 lets me go out in two. I didn't even need to bingo. #STRATEGYSADDEST and also #knowledgesaddest for the phony
this is actually a pretty counterproductive play. I need to admit I am at a disadvantage and play FIB 7K. This gives back too many bingos and scoring plays. I am setting up points on row 8, but also on row 4 with TEFF. Cool play that I should have seen. I saw BE(D)IM, which is also a lot better. #findingmedium #strategymedium
Quackle likes 11E TREYS to score 10 more and restrict the 11 row, but I'm not so sure - between row 11 and SAL I'm pretty likely to bingo with EIRS after NUTSY. #strategysmall if anything.
This line certainly looks weird, but the S just doesn't have a lot of value here, and I really want points this turn. Quackle is convinced that TOE bingos over 1/3 of the time and thus prefers it, but I just don't know if I believe that, especially since Sam is more likely to block than Quackle believes and doesn't have VW as much as randomness dictates, but still, that is a massive number, so I'll go with it. #strategymedium
this is phony. even though it was unchallenged, it is still a large mistake; part of me thought it was good for some reason. the best play here is N2 BUGEYE. this turn could have gone much worse for me. -5 #knowledgelarge
Yea, this move carries too much risk with the leave and, of course, drawing 2 more vowels. HOO does sim better. Not to mention, AINOS isn't the best leave with an open K and I. #strategymedium
I think it's fine to pass up 6F FU(C)I on this turn since I give up 10 points to do that. I really need to get the F off my rack and didn't see 14B FU(G)IO, which sims better against a more random rack. #findingsmall
in speed games, there is enormous value in seeing bingos quickly. I unfortunately do not usually have that capacity, so I often make plays like this, that can't be too much worse than a bingo, but that are clearly inferior. The time I save is very valuable, but immediately missing the bingos is obviously a problem. Had I taken the time to see a bingo after not immediately seeing one, I would have lost a lot of time and it would not have been worth it. Best looks to be L5 cATHEAD, which looks like it would lead to a game where whoever gets the next bingo will win. #findingmedium
holy shit did i just miss overnice. i felt like i was missing a bingo but still. jesus. the sadder part is ive definitely never missed that on aerolith. #findinglarge
This turn destroyed me and I spent maybe 10 minutes tanking because I didn't know what to do. I really didn't want to open with 13H (SH)INOLA. F6 IO seems fine in hindsight #TIMESADDEST
just with BRANG*, I was about ready to snap challenge, and the longer I took, the less I felt I should challenge. This is a huge mistake, but I still figured my best chances were holding on from this position. But I missed AR(M)Y for 39, which is too many to say no to. There is very limited risk of 7 consonants next turn being pivotal enough to lose the game, and also very minimal chance of not drawing a vowel, given the 15/10 vowel/consonant ratio. Something like 10-15%? I just missed AR(M)Y, but worse, I made this play with absolutely no clue about RALLYE, a word I know. I never saw RALLYE. This was Jackson's game to come back and win. Incredibly good pressure by him, picking at my confidence levels more and more every turn. #knowledgesaddest #visionsaddest #strategysaddest #findingsaddest
15D (H)UcKSTER is a cool one that is much better than this, and J1 TUR(N)KEyS is something that would have taken away the entire bottom right for him! #findingmedium
I didn't spend enough time generating plays here. I saw this, D8 FIBULA, E2 AUDIBLE, and 7G BUDA#; I chose BULLA to play off an L while keeping a vowel. The best play is BUILD in the same spot, scoring 2 more than BULLA and keeping the better leave; somehow I saw only its anagram, BLUID#, which doesn't play. Other good options include D8 FLUID, 7E BALU#, and 7E BUDI#. #findingmedium
looks pretty close, OC(R)EA is also worth considering. I need to bingo pronto and CO(R)IA lets me do that the most of the 24+ point plays. AERIE felt like it put me a bit too far out of one bingo range. In retrospect, I think OC(R)EA might be the best because it truly forks the board, not letting him parallel on columns G or I, whereas after CO(R)IA he can get stuff like B(O)TT or whatever that blocks everything. I don't expect him to make these plays too often but it's not an option I want to allow. #strategysmall
once I actually realized my misplay in this position I assumed YEAH was probably an 18-point mistake. I mistracked a U instead of a D, so I thought my Q had a better chance of not getting stuck. I also didn't notice that INSNARE played under DIF which I was not blocking. So I should play QA(T) 8C and just brace for impact I think.
#tacticsmedium
This is just a much worse version of (R)OWA(N) 9H and I could easily just play (P)OW or something but I still want to dodge the 10 unseen vowels #endgamesad
Another terrible decision. I got spooked by his last play and was trying to find something that would work best against his range. It's not what I played. G3 UND(E)R(LI)T is a much better play with the same idea. Also probably better than this is just 6B Z(E) or some echange like Exch. DUNNT. Of those options, I like G3 UND(E)R(LI)T the best. It blocks a few spots while saving B6 and C9 Z plays. #findingsaddest
totally lost my mind here and thought I could block her bingo. Turns out she was holding the nuts. Well, actually, quite the opposite of the nuts. #strategylarge
greedy. wasn't sure, but thought I could draw a free turn a lot. Didn't want to put the E at 4I. knew he couldn't block everything if this came off. Also he might just assume this was an E and not look at the slip. Stupid. #knowledgeSADDEST
Q suggests TEW E9. I much prefer WINE I5 to this but at this point I'm simply fighting off a mental breakdown of thinking that I'm the worst scrabble player in the world #findingsad
As usual, what I know about my opponent's rack leads me to make a mistake. A1 seemed like the biggest hotspot, since if Peter bingos there, it doesn't give much back. By contrast, if he bingos on Column D or Row 14, I'll be able to score 30 points and keep tempo with him. Nevertheless, VOLTES 10B is decidedly better than FOLK, scoring 17 more points and taking out two of the three bingo lanes. If he hits something to the F, so be it. (-8) #strategymedium
I didn't even consider doing 8A BUsH for 51 which would have been sick! While I'm glad to have seen this one with 2 blanks, as well as D8 H(O)LIBUts, D6 BIH(O)UrLy is the safest one for only 2 less. #findinglarge
According to Championship Player 13L PA wins 27% of the time. I guess he only has one vowel a lot of the time and I can outrun him if I don't give him something to play through. Unfortunately, I was on tilt and may have also been out of time and I couldn't think clearly. #endgamelarge