YET or YELD E9 win the sim easily. It's possible that I missed the Y hook on OGEE, but maybe it didn't seem right to fish at this score. E5 does seem like a good thing to block, but apparently not worth breaking up the rack over. Either #strategymedium or #visionmedium (-6)
couldn't remember if it was AIRSOCK* or OARSICK*. Turns out it was ARKOSIC, which is probably best at N8 for 98. This and it sim evenly, surprisingly. #knowledgeSADDEST
not great; the leave is not good enough. i could do something like 7I WEAR or even the pretty awesome 7I WE -- ACHRRS is a very strong leave through that E. (but would that stay open?). tough move. -6 #tacticsmedium
13M GU(T). I thought 1H UNRO(V)E was a huge strategic error after the game, but it's too close to be making short blocking plays, I need to score. It's still a mistake though. #strategysadder
Apparently, B6 COR wins the most. I think I considered that but I thought there must've been something deadly on row 15 or maybe an A8 bing starting with P or B. #endgamemedium
I put down CRAVATS and SHTETL, saw that it gave back WAI, and then did HEST instead. #knowledgesaddest for CRAVATE this entire game #timesaddest for this entire game
I thought SCRIB was a word #knowledgesaddest so this doesn't leave a bingo line that I need to win. Something like 3K (C)L(E)W seems good here. #strategysaddest
It's better to go the aggressive route with 2J NTH since it sets up plays like 5I FAS next turn while taking out a lot of Karl's scoring plays hooking YE. #strategymedium
Even though I am basically hosed at this point, this should be 15H FRONT if I'm going to go here. I didn't recognize the JELLO hook for some reason. Even then, O1 FONT, which was missed, is better to leave the JELLS/JELLO hook open. #findingmedium
I thought about A11 MAILE but not 13I EMAILEd. I think MAILE is actually fine, MEALIES opens up a big scoring spot for him, but also E? isn't great here cause bingoes need to start in vowels or use the blank as an S. that was why I decided against MAILE, but EMAILED looks better, he averages not even a point more than after mealies but my average goes up cause i'm opening the board more generally and not just one spot. #visionsmall
YET or YELD E9 win the sim easily. It's possible that I missed the Y hook on OGEE, but maybe it didn't seem right to fish at this score. E5 does seem like a good thing to block, but apparently not worth breaking up the rack over. Either #strategymedium or #visionmedium (-6)
This isn't terrible. But keeping the S after OATY actually helps him more than it helps me since my average goes up and his average next turn goes down. ISU is a very weak leave, therefore, I should have done 13B OUTSAY over OATY. OUTSAY actually opens up 2 nice scoring spots and is simming ahead of OATY. #strategysmall
Sims says G5 (M)U(REX) but I think this is assuming way more openings than Sokol would make, though it also partially blocks 6F plays. I dunno. #strategysadder
Here I figured that 9-letter words on 2D were the most dangerous threat. Bingos on column B require designating the blank an A, and give me something back. CAIN seemed better than WAIN because the W fits better at F6. Quackle agrees with all this, but there's an even better block: AECIA L11. (-4) #visionsmall
convincingly better to put the blank on the 4 row rather than the 3 row oh nvm things evened out at 19000 iterations
I remember when I relied on short sims to justify totally ridiculous nitpicky situations like these, now I'm sitting here super happy that BLoOPER(S) is now on top by .1 point
Oh wait I'm simming the wrong position. He played MOJO(S) E4 instead of L4, but you know that because I've already changed the annotation. Now to sim the actual position 20 thousand times
well PROBLEm(S) is simming on top. I lose. #tacticssmall
Just kidding, we're now at 6500 iterations and my play is on top. BLOoPERS is 3rd behind PROBLEm(S).
I thought I need to make some desperate fish here but my best shot is to just try and outrun with plays making BIRLS. I really just needed more time to figure it out. #timesaddest #strategysaddest
B1 CHAPaTT(I) allows for triple-triples so it's actually not the correct play here. B2 PATHeT(I)C(S) is better so a big ol' #KNOWLEDGESADDEST because i didn't know it.
A difficult decision. That bingo is coming, sooner rather than later. I've been very fortunate that he hasn't gotten it down yet. I saw options at N4, but they didn't seem worth it at the time. In fact, all of them are, even though Mark might parallel them. PuGAREE N4, tripling the G, is clearly best among those. (-2% win chances) #strategymedium
realized my thought process was flawed after I made this play. I have to hope Jason has the worst rack ever here. So if I do that, then I don't want to let him be allowed to exchange next turn. Which is why I didn't play CUE 11J. But I can actually win if he exchanges, even when it throws bad letters into the pool. That's something I might need to hope for. #strategyquestionable
there it is; missing PETITORY# is unacceptable. but i know literally 3 csw words. #knowledgelarge -27 also i should block the 14F spot with NOY if i'm going to play those letters (i thought of BEZ too, but the Z at 14F would be worse).
this was a grave mistake. I am not in a position to be able to afford just pure balance. Sure, keeping a vowel is a plus, but it's not a plus enough. I'm going to need more than just a balanced leave to stay in this game. L13 FEW is the play. #strategymedium
I played too scared here. I thought my opponent was fishing but the bag is too crappy. It's more likely that he's bogged down with consonants and there's nothing he can do. I need to play O1 PONT or O1 SOAP and outrun. My play literally set up a lovely little X hotspot for my opponent to outrun me with. Genuinely, I could not have made a stupider move. Even passing is better. This is a time where knowing E4 PANTOS would have come in handy. #knowledgesaddest #strategylarge
Case S is extremely strong here with LUVS and a very bingo-friendly pool, so I played CROZE to at least partially block some stuff through the K and completely take out the the row 2 bingo line; 1I MOCKERS was very tempting as well. Obviously, I'll feel pretty stupid any time Joey triple-triples through the K after CROZE, whereas pretty much no bingo after MOCKERS will score enough to threaten me, especially with me holding the Z. I think I got a little greedy here and should've played MOCKERS just to secure the win. #strategysmall
Quackle burns the S for an extra 5 points with STELAI. I'm not sure why that is. Another superior play is OILCLOTH 8A, which I never would have seen. I'd find it as a bingo every time, but not as an extension. (-2% win chances, -10 valuation) #strategysmall, #visionlarge
Not playing the bingo and playing 15A (WHIT)STER instead sims better which is kinda cool. also 11H STRiFES sims better i guess because i bingo more next turn?? is this is a #strategysad ? could be
looks like I chose wrong here. M1 MODI, 6D ROD, 6D ROM all look worth playing here. I liked opening the top left with this play, but I also set up QAT and X plays, which are really annoying. ROD is probably my favourite of the bunch. #strategysmall
Well, Quackle hates this, but it reduces Darrell's bingo percentage to zero, so that's nice. Quackle hates it because it believes Darrell's bingo percentage on the board as currently constituted is approximately 4%. UNSNAG scores so little that it puts me at risk of being outrun, but YZ is certainly a good combo to keep to alleviate that problem. A better way to go about this would've been to play 13f YANGS, which also reduces Darrell's bingo percentage to near-zero and keeps the Z, but also scores 8 more points in the process. I generated that as an option, but couldn't be sure that there weren't still playable overlaps on row 11 afterwards. #strategysmall
wow, M(AI)LE H1 is available for a whopping 42, but best is to block (L)UNGI D2 with C1 R(I)LE, R(I)EL or L(I)RE because MAILE is unblockable. -20 #endgamelarge
This bingos the most, but gives back too many points on row 13. 6L FEH is best even though it doesn't bingo as much because it sets up my S. #strategysad
could someone explain how GOT gives up 2 more pts on average than TOG? easier to overlap? is it just the H hook? this is so weird. TOG also results in a higher average score for me next turn so overall this sims a shocking 1.5 pts worse than TOG! #strategysmall
I have like 0% chance of winning. With L11 SIEGE at least I can prioritize reaching 300 sometime this century. But, like, it's the case S. I'm feeling greedy. Also I forgot to look on that side of the board. #strategysaddest ? #visionsaddest ALSO #knowledgesad for challenging a 3. May or may not have been a "stop closing down the board for the love of god" challenge, but my lips are sealed
Quackle picks 14A BABA and 14A BABE. My best chance of winning depends on me drawing the X (I'm not expecting to draw a bingo), and BABA and BABE turn over 4 tiles, empty the bag, and save 14J XI. They also increase Carl's chance of having a bingo, providing a lane for sevens starting with L or R on row 15--and BABA permits A or E as well. I chose BIB because it allows fewer bingos, allows me to play another turn after a bingo, and saves 8A ATAP--although I should really be concerned about the X. BIB saves AXE at 1A and A6. #tacticsmedium
N1 GAUFERS never wins, obviously; CP slightly prefers 11K UG to FAG, but I was imagining FAG potentially drawing into solid scoring bingos on both columns A and N. The problem with FAG is obviously that first, it empties the bag. Second, I was worried that if Tim has the Y he can outrun me with any reasonable FREETY play, but given that I probably need the Y and either the M or the other blank to even threaten the win, I should just bank on drawing it myself, making blocking it unimportant. At least I made a play that has a nontrivial chunk of winning%. #strategysmall 0:45
It appears that COT sims better since that gives back fewer hooks. It's good to make a play that will lead to a more open board, but it's also easier for Jamie to reparallel underneath or hook HOT. Also misscored as 21. #strategymedium
I wanted to take the ONUS hook, but I don't have a play that does that and keeps well. 11D VENIN is best, blocking 2x2s and leaving ONUS for next turn. #strategylarge
3B OW seemed crazy. I can see why this could be a strategical oversight- G3 WO is 8 fewer points but my bingo % shoots up to 43% compared to just 13% after WITES. It still sims quite a bit ahead of WITES despite what might usually be a big difference in score. On the other hand, this isn't even that good of a board for bingoing besides the open T in PAINT. Other than that, I pretty much have to play a 9 or score like 61 with the S in AMNESIAS. Quackle has puts some 3A plays ahead of some Column G plays. #strategymedium?
4J JUM(P)ED is probably fine here. I shouldn't be too worried about triple-triples after a 5 tile play. It also blocks bingos making EDS. #strategysmall
Played this WOK thinking I keep the E for EWE but there are more front hooks to WE if I play the other WOK, but I realized after I hit my clock I should've probably played the other one because of JEW and other hard-hitting overlaps there. #strategysmall
This setup is too easily blocked and while L6 (L)I(M)E can also be fairly easily blocked, it keeps a much better leave to hit to other open lines. #strategysaddest
13G M(E)WL has the best equity and wins a close sim. I played LAW to set up a high-scoring bingo lane, but it keeps four consonants and gives Dennis a scoring spot. Row 15 and column L are all the lanes I need. Oh, and M(E)WL would block Dennis's bingo. #strategymedium
Yea, this is not going well. Probably 12A VIEW is a better play at this score. This doesn't give me enough volatility compared to VIEW and also gets more clunkers off my rack. #findingmedium
CoCo Seattle Scrabble tournament round 2. 8E POCO is best, followed by 8G POCO. It turns out that the leave AEI isn't so bad compared to EOP. #strategysmall
Can't make myself pull the trigger on PoTENCES for 4 more. No 9s available but I spent way too much time looking and trying to talk myself out of SERPENTIC* #knowledgesad