The options are 15D OBE(S)E, 15G (S)EX, and L5 EXO. Quackle is saying blocking the triple is best, so this is probably a slight mistake. #strategymedium
Maybe the most interesting position of the game. I (and macondo inference) agree that Eric is far likelier than usual to be holding an S or blank right now. With inference, sim gives eric an average of 12 (!!) points after QUA, compared to 40 and 50 for 13C QUIRES and 14B QUIRE respectively. But my predicted score next turn is now only 14. I need some 2000+ analysis of this position #strategysad
There's 5 possible bingos through 14H OM and I just wanna quit. 10H sTONERS is notable #findingsaddest #Knowledgesaddest We out here turning up dumbassery to 100%
K10 IS bings way more. Whatever I play here, he's going to know I'm close to a bing. I might as well increase the bing % and fish the S instead of the N. #strategylarge because this is way worse for bing %.
very hard to analyze a move like this. i need macondo to have inferencing. many moves here would look dumb in retrospect. of course my move looks terrible; i laid down FER/RUGAE first but FERE being good makes that bad. in the end i thought this would make his bingos less likely (i was inferring an S, but that's definitely not necessary). details window shows RUNE still gives up a few more bingos than RUGAE, but the "best" play is GENUA in the same spot, even though it gives up the most bingos. maybe it just really needs me to bingo back. #strategylarge
Already fucking up. 8D WIVER is just too many points to pass up. Intuitively it feels like I should be able to justify exchanging here, but the sim says its an 8 point mistake. #tacticssadder
oh look, I actually saw THIAZINE. OH lOoK, i MiSsEd (D)ISPATCH FoR 101. Karma is strong. Funnily enough I think I get Q stuck after DISPATCH if I don't draw AI. #findingSADDEST
2I OBA is best. I chose 6I to block (BE)Z#, but it partially blocks the bingo lane on column L, which I need to leave open while I'm behind. #strategysmall
Sim winner is STUPA 5F, blocking LE(TUP). Ok, I'm sleep-deprived and all, and I have no time left, but I'm just saying: even on a good day, I'm never finding that. (-13) #endgamelarge #timemanagementlarge
I played too scared here. I thought my opponent was fishing but the bag is too crappy. It's more likely that he's bogged down with consonants and there's nothing he can do. I need to play O1 PONT or O1 SOAP and outrun. My play literally set up a lovely little X hotspot for my opponent to outrun me with. Genuinely, I could not have made a stupider move. Even passing is better. This is a time where knowing E4 PANTOS would have come in handy. #knowledgesaddest #strategylarge
well he blocked my much better spot for INK. i don't know why i didn't play AKIN at 11K though; that blocks up pretty much everything and seals the game. I think i was worried about an UN- bingo but that's unlikely with the pool. i feel like a lot of these mistakes are just purposeful choices and i'm not weighing the probabilities properly. there is probably something i can infer from LA. -10 #strategylarge
I always underestimate how much more bingo-prone the I is than the A. I felt that AD had enough synergy over DI that ADES was the better leave, but the difference in scoring isn't that great and DEIS bingoes a few percent more than ADES. ex AE also bingoes more than both, which I find kinda surprising cause I felt ADEIS was one of the worse 3v2c leaves, since the D is less flexible than stuff like the LNRT tiles. Ofc that's with no inference in the sim, Joey will restrict my bingo% more after an x2. I'm willing to say this is a #tacticssmall since I doubted DEIS too much. IDEA or AIDE are okay optimally, but it's pretty close, and my plan against joey is definitely not to play either of those plays, giving back a lot more in score and bingoes. even optimally I tend towards exchanging.
18 points off of HET because blocking the 2 row costs Deen dearly. HET follows a very complicated out-in-5 sequence according to Quackle. #endgamesaddest
watching my laptop start to whine and heat up to the temperature of our sun as it sims makes me feel so much better about having had a hard time finding a good play. like, yes, this pile of metal and numbers, too, does not know what to do here. fwiw, it likes 7F WE, so it's only like a #tacticssad (ish)
I was a bit wary of opening all the nice floaters, but I still gotta just do ZOSTER here. if it was ERST instead of ORST then we might be talking. He only bingoes 5% more after zoster? interesting #tacticsmedium
wrote a big X here on my scoresheet, which seems to designate that I saw that I had missed NAKFA from the N in DESIGNEE. #findingmedium
AUK L1 is only a 4-point sacrifice too, seems worth making for the leave.
Right idea. I did see a good play and considered DEMETON as well as MONTY and MONEY at J2. MON(E)YED is the standout play since that does dispose of the Y, which can be a bingo killer even though it's a nice scoring tile to keep on this specific board since DEMETON sets up another spot for my Y. #findingmedium
i would have played TIYIN but i was scared after losing the UNRIVE* challenge. i knew TIYIN was good in at least one dictionary. i laid down YETI at L2 but i really don't think that's the play. -2 #knowledgesmall
looks like I13 FON is the play here, I missed SICKO. BNNT is quite a bit worse but not ridiculously so, the 7 points seems worth it. I liked making overlaps a bit harder though, but a sim says that's only a minor difference. #visionsmall
getting V stuck if I play REL(I)EF, so I need to keep at least an E or playing the V. Thought this would be good to keep VEE(P). Quackle doesn't find it but I imagine it's fine. I draw into EVENT sometimes as well. This play has a value of -3.875, average spread +137.125. Quackles best find is 2A LEV(I)N which has an accurately calculated value of -1.75, average spread being 139.25. So this is -2 unless there's something better #strategysmall
Missed two bingos here after he surprisingly blocked ANALYSTS K5. SATYRALS# and STAYSA(I)L. I have no excuse for the latter other than of course I would miss a Y bingo. This turn was also fascinating because I wondered how much the A improved my leave. If I play K9 SAY, I score 1 less, and don't block the triple. However, I understcored SAY by 2 in my head. Still, as somewhat expected, SAY is a much better play than SA(T)AY. I should have gathered that conclusion over the board. #findingsaddest #strategysad
At this point I was shitting my pants. I thought he had S? and was gonna end me on row 14. I burnt a lot of time thinking of ways I could block, I even considered 14D TOC before realizing that was insane. I eventually resigned to just play equity, but I had already used like 5 minutes or something. B2 NOTC(H) looks fine here. #visionSADDEST
IO# maximizes my bingo chance. I missed 11E PA(L)SIER until next turn, and I thought IO# was a blunder; somehow, IO# beats PA(L)SIER in a sim. I wanted to play the I either way, seeing that there were four I's unseen. However, the sim winner is K5 PO(L), blocking row 5 and minimizing Dennis's bingo chance. #strategymedium
Quackle doesn't like this either because the leave is too gross (too GROST...heh). It prefers F5 GOOK, but Matthew is perhaps least likely to play the way that Quackle expects of anybody I know. Maybe 9H DOG or 6H LOG are more reasonable. #strategylarge
um. It would seem that I let him get away with TOL* here? This seems very weird. But this is what I have recorded. I'm gonna go with this not having happened, but I'll record the game as it is! Heh. #visionlarge?
I did not see 2D YeX for 62. That's a lot of points and there are many I's left for ING bingos, so that seems correct. I considered this, YANG 2J and (TA)NGY. It seemed good to go straight for a bingo now, but it could be that patience is in order, keeping the X again to try and bomb it. #findingmedium