bingoes like B3 GYrAtED are not worth it here, but IDEAloGY is definitely the right play here. it's 83 points and i should be able to survive a bingo back on column B. i should have looked a bit harder. -16.5 #findinglarge #knowledgelarge
When I was inputting this into Quackle, this seemed like a terrible play. It isn't even one of Quackle's initial choices. However, it sims decently. The bag is consonant heavy, so I figure to be able to use column H more easily than Thomas. Also, UNITED takes out column D. I remember considering sim-winner AEDINE O10, but the strategic benefits of UNITED seemed stronger. In practice, AEDINE has to be right. Thomas has many uses for the S, not just D12. OU isn't that bad of a leave with that consonant heavy pool, especially with the Q unseen. (-5) #strategymedium
I couldn't accept how sad all my options were and I tanked for a while then gave up and made this sad play. 15D ROAN(S) is best followed by plays at 1H starting with the P. #strategysaddest
This is a bad play: it blocks row 12 and the BESCOURS hook, opens a D/N hook that I don't have, and scores only 12 points. Quackle strongly prefers 9F LIMA, which keeps the highest-scoring lanes open and scores 21 points. I like J2 MILIA, which scores the same as LIMA and keeps a better leave. #strategymedium
I must not have found GIRD somehow. It's odd that Quackle rates DIRGE over 40 points back in valuation, given 4 unseen E's, a clunky pool (which means I am likelier to get a bingo than Will), and the fact that it is--well, seems--easier to play a bingo through a D than through a G. But DIRGE never wins anyway. #findingmedium
Figured this would be a controversial move, but while I accept it's a mistake and I certainly got burned to the maximum possible extent, I had logic behind it, as I expressed on the stream; if Alec didn't have a bingo, I expected he might be more apt to open something than the Gibsons of the world. #strategylarge
Yes, I saw 14F GRIT. And then I saw KITING, and then I saw TIRING which undoubles my R's and saves the K for 14F, and meanwhile I forgot about GRIT. But I have to draw an A for 14F KA or else the sacrifice isn't worth it. Actually, the best plays are at L10: GYRI, RYKE, and KYRIE block row 14, and GYRI in particular saves the K for 14F and doesn't take any of the four unseen S's. #tacticsmedium
glad I didn't see GLITCHED (apparently not a word??) and let the phony go, definitely would have played it.
GLID/GILD K5, would have played that. #findingSAD
Way off. The right play here is MURA 5B, setting up the Y. I didn't see it, or anything else for that matter. And no, I didn't pick up on any tells; I'm just a spazz. -17 #visionlarge
YET or YELD E9 win the sim easily. It's possible that I missed the Y hook on OGEE, but maybe it didn't seem right to fish at this score. E5 does seem like a good thing to block, but apparently not worth breaking up the rack over. Either #strategymedium or #visionmedium (-6)
I thought I was dead, I didn't see IO(t)A on my timie and thought he had just given me a chance to stay in the game with WO. IO(t)A is by far best. I was playing well until IRONIZED. #findinglarge
Quackle prefers K9 HATH, which I considered. HEATH has the better equity, but the board is good for bingos in the short term, with row 12 and column B, and HATH preserves both lanes and keeps a better bingo leave. #tacticssmall
champ and sim likes 7g EVE which is fascinating. I liked guv over the board because it greatly reduces Ben's scoring chances, where he is scoring nothing without an s. the problem is that my average score is also greatly reduced, and my bingo chanced plummet. EVE is best #tacticsmedium
I don't think I was mentally present during this game because so far I've 1) EXCHANGED MY S and 2) fished OO for 4 (not even 8!)
Also 11E COO(R)IES #VISIONSADDEST #FINDINGSADDEST and #knowledgesad for the challenge
This sims way, way back: I didn't see EH 10A. No one mentioned this in either the commentary or the chat, which vindicates me slightly. SHH must be difficult to spot for everyone. (-12) #visionlarge
this was the ugliest play I've made in a long time. A better version of this would be VUG(H) to the H, which, again, I never saw. 3 misses in a row #findingsmall
The other options are terrible so this block isn't actually that bad. Sim is saying G13 (P)IU is the only other viable option, but I didn't want to give back big 15F Q plays. Those probably aren't a concern though since I'm ahead by enough to only have to worry about bingos. #strategysmall
sims near to FROE J6 even without inferring Jason has a strong leave, but FROREN# makes this play a lot worse. I am supposed to know that word, since Matthew Tunnicliffe taught me the FRORNE# FROREN# FORREN# combo a couple of weeks ago #knowledgesmall
i'm pretty sure i passed up eNJOINS here, i remember seeing it and immediately ignoring it without counting it. i may have been wrong. also, J10 JO is better than my JO as it sets up an S-ending lane! -4 #strategymedium
so this was a huge mistake on many levels! Firstly I somehow got it in my mind he had DEHIMOS on his rack. LOVAGES/MICROS would give him DEMOLISH, whereas he would get HOMIE after G8 LOVAGES. That's why I played it here, but not only was I wrong and he has ADEHMOS, I average so much after DEMOLISH that it's actually worth it to play 9B lovages even if he has dehimos! that being said the post-HOMIE board is better for me so I think it's closer than the sim says, but the sim still prefers 9B by like 11 points. #strategylarge for being dumb
there are a number of fairly easy bingos available on row 11, which a player like me would find on any given day, but not in this game. which is problematic, as these are the types of games where i most need to find these moves. -18.5 #focus #visionlarge I had tunnel vision with setting up EST here partially.
I know he opened horizontally becuase I remember where he played REDEFIED.
K11 OVUL(E) appears to be a better version of VU(M). It scores the same, blocks more and scores 6 more than VU(M) next turn because D1 plays appear more often. #tacticssmall
The score is close enough, and my tiles and the pool are good enough, that I should go for one more bingo. FE does not work as a fish, as it hits with only the blank. The best play is D3 FOB, the fish that keeps the best leave and, for example, hits SCALENI with the most likely draw. #strategylarge
perhaps L2 OVULE instead? This was a stylistic choice to try and limit the left side as much as possible. After a play comes down at 12A though, who knows if I can keep it up. #tacticssmall`
saw (E)YESOME but was unsure. The S has a lot of recursive value, but probably not enough to overcome the 16-point deficit according to Quackle's evaluations. This is definitely a board I can come back from a 20-point deficit on. #knowledgelarge
Knowing that Cesar still has ESS on his rack makes this a tough decision. Quackle being Quackle, it still takes the points with the 14H placement. (-4?) #strategysmall
i had about 30 seconds or so on my clock. i didn't think he was going to let me play OVATIONS, so i was looking for a Q stick. then he did this. i didn't think he had given me a bingo, and i was only looking to the right. i saw novations on my rack at some point but then thought too bad the ON is backwards. i then tried to continue thinking of a way to Q stick him and couldn't figure it out. this is of course a ridiculously bad play, but it didn't register that i wasn't Q-sticking him at the time, i literally just ran out of time. The funniest thing is that slow-playing the game actually works too, i didn't need to find novations. 6F IT wins for example. -120 #endgamelarge #timelarge #nojudgment #meowmeow
I want to do (NA)RDS 5J even though it blocks the D in FOOD, because YARAKS is good! I always forget that because of its definition: a fit condition for hunting: -- used of a hawk. The last part confuses my brain into thinking it's an adjectiive or an exclamation. #knowledgemedium #tacticsmedium
It's better to go the aggressive route with 2J NTH since it sets up plays like 5I FAS next turn while taking out a lot of Karl's scoring plays hooking YE. #strategymedium
I saw OcREATE, but I didn't want to give up a C hook at A1. This sacrifices 3 points, yet Quackle rates this an 8-point mistake. In hindsight, it was a mistake; I drew both C's and the other blank this game. #tacticssmall
I really only considered QaDI O1, VE(G) I6 and this. I was worried SERIFING* was good, so I calculated the endgames with that in mind. This is wrong since SERIFING* is not a word. 3K V(OWE)D blocks REFINES/SMEW, the only available bingo, and keeps threats of Qa(D)I open.
#knowledgemedium
So, I'm a silly little goose who is still learning and growing and yes spoiler alert i phonied twice with invalid threes. because i am a silly little goose who is still learning and growing. please and thank you. #knowledgesaddest
M9 SAMBUR even, over H10 SAMBUR, with the inference. And this is a good inference, since his range with FERED is random. Until I figure out what his other two tiles were very quickly #knowledgemedium
14M KIT sims best, but I was worried about O7 bingos ending in IEST or EST. What I didn't see during the game is that I can also definitely lose to plays like N4 BONACIS, 6H VIB(R)ANCE, and 6G COVE(R)ING, so 14M KIT is probably best. #strategysaddest
I saw but hated how blocky D9 TOPO was. I liked this move to eventually open up the top left because I have the P hook for POI. Maybe OVATE would have been a better version of this if I was going to also pass up G12 OPT. #strategysmall
2J BLE(A)T is 17 fewer points but reduces the opponent's next turn score by about 6 and increases my next turn score by about 13, apparently. This makes it sim about 2 points better. #strategysad
Q also likes VEIN M9 to set up the S. Likes it by a whole lot, like 7 points, evening lowering his average while raising mine by 10. It's really aggressive and I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with that in this favourable position, but it is valuated way higher. Quite a bit higher standard deviation. I think this is #visionsmall
This is a great opening by Tim and I realize I'm kinda screwed here since there's no way to effectively block. I figured I'd at least make a play there so I'd be able to block in two turns, but he's just gonna open somewhere else. Maybe I should've gone for 9B N(I)L or maybe I need to counterfish somehow. I dunno. #strategysaddest
F2 ENDEAVO(R) #findingsaddest #knowledgesaddest (i love that i stumbled into GROUPIST, which is 13k probability and couldnt find ENDEAVOR, which is 1k probability. i am truly composed of paradoxes)
i gotta do 3F ARRIS and then O12 IN(T). didn't see that i set up the Q until after i hit the clock because i had less than a minute left #timesaddest #endgamesaddest i hope my anki backlog is proud of me
i don't know if this is an overreaction. do i just play Z(A)G? GADJE sacrifices a lot of points but gets rid of some ugliness. CDEJT doesn't strike me as an appetizing leave. i suppose if i draw another E i can get JETTED for a few points, or DEJECT, etc. i hate this and should have exchanged on my first move. quackle thinks the sacrifice from GADJE is not worth it as i only get slightly more points next turn with GADJE than ZAG, but i'm sacrificing 13 pts now. makes sense that this is such a big equity loss. -10.5 #strategylarge
I missed a really cool play here: 4K AR(E)CA. Even though it is a huge point sacrifice, Noah is going to have a hard time blocking the board after that, and there's still 3 Is and 4 Ns left to hit gerund bingoes on Column E. #visionmedium