this is actually a pretty counterproductive play. I need to admit I am at a disadvantage and play FIB 7K. This gives back too many bingos and scoring plays. I am setting up points on row 8, but also on row 4 with TEFF. Cool play that I should have seen. I saw BE(D)IM, which is also a lot better. #findingmedium #strategymedium
OK, even less excuse now with some time to think about it, and another turn for him to draw something there - I gotta do something like M9 MAGIAN to block that area. I think I thought that after he gets 80 there, I bingo for hopefully a comparable amount and still have tempo on a crummy board. But why wouldn't I try to stop the 80? FLEXOR and MATH would have been ok plays otherwise, but...come on. I will say that of all my turns at Nationals this year, this one was most tilting, because I saw all 4 of my playable CSW bingos here, and got agitated that I somehow didn't have a single TWL one...stopping myself from those kinds of reactions might be a bigger challenge than actually keeping the words straight. #strategylarge
idk what was happening to me. i got obsessed with finding a 9 or something with GLEDE. #knowledgesaddest for 9H TAxEMES and #findingsaddest for O8 (E)ASEMEnT
J2 V(E)G doesn't seem good enough to me. quackle says i score a ton next turn though, even if i dont bingo that often? where? FUSED/MODELINGS? -2 #strategysmall
The Duck says there is a 1/8 chance of winning after this play but I'm pretty sure it's lying to me because I went through every endgame and it never has me winning. So, since I'm pretty sure there is no win, I have to hope he screws up. This play fishes for 15D DISU(N)ITE but he's probably going to see that and block. I need to play something like O11 Y(OWIE) to hit the M because he is probably less likely to see 2G D(I)MITIES. If Quackle is actually correct about the 1/8 please let me know, but for now #strategymedium
I was hesitant to play 11A GODWIT just because it doesn't address the B10 hotspot, but 4 more points is fine and ITW isn't doing much on this board. John isn't going to shut down the lanes in CAPTAIN when he's behind. #strategymedium
i did consider G10 DUNG but i didn't want to open it up for him after his last play or two. his rack kind of smelled of blanks (i can smell them) and i thought i should keep it a bit closed. i maybe could play H1 GNAR too, or 5M GOD or something. either way, i'm in decent shape. -3.5 #strategysmall
This would be close with C9 ZO except that she put down an S on the board before playing 15A KIN(G) the turn before, making this very sad. #strategysaddest
i spent a little while doing math on this move. 2 of the 43 unseen tiles are Z and J, so the chance he drew at least one of them is 1 - (41/43)*(40/42)*(39/41)*(38/40)*(37/39)*(36/38)*(35/37) or about 30%. First of all, is that actually right? And second, i estimated it as roughly 25% - which is not quite right, but i figured it was close enough. I should figure out a better way to do this kind of math. either way, it is probably for naught because the best play is either NOOGIE or GOOIER, sacrificing 8 pts but keeping a more workable leave, and not opening up as huge of a hotspot. -1.5 #tacticssmall
looks like WAND or exchange here (CNS or CST are both fine, going for the COBIA hook). CDNST is really lane cause I don't even bingo often, and when I don't I'm not in a great position. WAX also encourages COBIA to be blocked. I think I should exchange. #tacticssmall
jvc: I think M8 OUTATE is probably better than this, but it's really aggressive so I'm not sure if it's best. This is definitely a mistake though. #findingmedium
I missed O6 AUDITEE, which scores three more points and gives me two more chances at the two blanks unseen. N6 AUNTIE is also slightly better than ADIEU despite getting rid of my only consonant, the case T, and setting up the O1-O6 hotspot. #findingmedium
realized that I fucked this up after playing IXI(A)
I just can't see IRE(N)IC over the board for some reason. Thought it was -12 but Quackle says -9 #endgamemedium
Was convinced that it's spelled WILEY* #knowledgesad also #knowledgesaddest for not playing more Hyperspace Hooks IDK maybe 10D (D)IV here? I wanna get rid of my R
If HU* (or Hofstra University, my alma mater) was good, 10G THION(I)NE still plays!! However, G3 HON is fine even with all those Es left. #strategymedium
this makes the X really powerful, AXES is like a game winning play. She already really likely has an S on her rack, probably not the X but it's possible she kept it with ZA (with AX I12 I'd assume she didn't have it). NIB only allows AXES, whereas BIN allows both axis and axes. am I in a bad enough position to need to win by getting axis? if that's the case I should play BIN. If I think I can win another way I should make it less likely she gets the play, and should play NIB. I didn't consider BI(T) 6F which is pretty cool - I save HADJI for next turn and don't allow the big X possibility. Can I win if she draws the X and I don't draw the blank? I feel like after BIT the game becomes more about the blank, whereas after BIN it's more about the X and AX?S, but the blank could still allow me to bingo if she got the play. Turnover is important here cause of the value of the blank and X, so maybe I should play QUERYING - still saves BIT and HADJI plays, doesn't give anything back.
I'm inclined to not exchange here, even though it seems like a decent option optimally. I think I can outrun here, and I'd like to be able to outrun even if I don't draw the blank. I feel like QUERYING is good even though the sim hates it - I don't allow AX?S plays, I save HADJI and BIT for future turns, at which point she may have played the I or X. I think I should at least play NIB over BIN, my chance of drawing AXIS is pretty low so I should at least make it harder for her to get it. Other than that I have no idea what to do here. #strategysmall
Yea, this move carries too much risk with the leave and, of course, drawing 2 more vowels. HOO does sim better. Not to mention, AINOS isn't the best leave with an open K and I. #strategymedium
very much wanted this to be the best play, but since almost no A's and only 2 U's remain, I2 TE/SQUAMAE is better. Also, just dropping the T at O3. She almost bit on SQUAMA, so thought she would challenge this own. #strategysmall
12I GENOA is a slightly better version of 12J EOAN. E1 NO(Od)GE sims best but idk. I mean, my opponent's next turn scores the most after this play. Maybe I'm just supposed to eat it. #strategysad at the very least
AWEE seemed to give a lot more easier plays back, but that shouldn't be a huge concern since I'm probably slightly behind regardless, so the extra point, better opportunities next turn and one fewer vowel might be good. #strategysmall
this is not a good move. i need to outrun him and score more. i didn't want to empty the bag so he wouldn't plan his outgame, but i may not have a choice here. N1 TAN scores 18 and will help outrun him. i don't think i have many ways to win after TOWEL. -3 #preendgame #strategymedium
I didn't see TUR(BI)D, which looks like a better X setup. It's not as clearly an X setup and doesn't open an S hook for him. With ADES I wasn't so concerned but I'm still giving him a couple awesome lanes, and he's taking the spot very often anyways. Even XU/LOT is probably fine here. #findingmedium
this gives back more bings than i thought because o the A hook. didnt think it was all that likely, oop. #strategyMEDIUM i need to find M5 INWOVE and shut it down
Blocking bingos is not very effective on this open board. 11B TE(R)F(E)# is best, setting up yet another lane and aiming to draw another bingo. #strategymedium
I think I briefly thought the E in BIVALENT was an I (lmao) and didn't play L12 WAUR. Seems pretty lost regardless, not sure what I'm supposed to do. I thought If I drew XZ and some vowels I might have a chance. #strategysaddest
when i choose to play all ugly i have to play as precisely as possible. maybe a robot can play perfectly after VIM, but i have to be able to find the somewhat hard to anagram CATGUT through the T and see that it's better than CUTCH. keeping the H is nice for the possibility at B10, and CH has good synergy as well. -4.5 #findingmedium
When will I learn that I should never keep two I's? AHI has the best equity, but 12C TAHINI is best overall; having two I's greatly hinders my potential for a 2*2 on column K. #tacticssmall
TA screams she's close to a bingo and has an E, so I wanted to address this. 1A TROKE is a better version of RETOOK because that scores 9 more. #findingmedium
totally missed O13 SEZ. i think, i can't remember. i don't think i would pass up that many pts for no reason, the S isn't worth anything on this board. -17.5 #visionlarge
Although I'm in a great position after HAMATE (his bingoes will empty the bag, leaving me up a tempo in a close endgame, meaning a very likely win), I should still do AHEM N11 - I really loved what that did, but I was only 90% sure that AHEM didn't take an S, and if it takes an S that could be a game-losing mistake. I felt like the chance that AHEM took an S was higher than the chance that HAMATE would lose me the game when AHEM would win me the game. Either way this is just an estimation and a clear word knowledge error. #knowledgemedium
F8 VAU man the U really sucks huh #tacticssadder ##equity
Specifying an S on his rack makes this play a lot better, but not better enough to justify the sac'ed equity
Quackle likes GLEIS but likes G13 GIE a bit more; interestingly, it far prefers GIE to GIO in the same spot, expecting I get a lot more bingos down the M column paralleling SO and perhaps a handful on column I with the (D)O(R) insertion. #strategysmall
I think I should have left the N off to significantly improve the leave. It's amazing how 1 fewer point means a much more manageable leave. #strategymedium
chickened out of both SNIFFLER and SNUFFIER. It's not that I didn't think I could get away with SNIFFLER, but I was going to challenge the S hook, which means I was not playing optimal Scrabble. SNUFFIER just looked wrong, but FUNFIRES kept resounding in my head, so I should have gone with it. #knowledgeSADDEST
10B WIENERS is far superior, but even if I don't see that something like C2 WRIEST is absolutely fine...way too big an equity hit with WURST just to get another S hook on the board. #strategymedium #findingmedium