I had the right idea by making a 2nd S hook for myself, but I didn't do it the right way. 11H YOUR is the move since IIRSU is a very weak leave. #findingmedium
It would not have been necessary to take advantage of the DAWTS hook since I did not see 1H (G)OuRMETS for 89. Also a cool bingo which I did not know was 1H (G)ROmMETS. #findingmedium
not sure enough of BLAWED (and i really should be because i know BLAW is a verb, but maybe its only past tense is BLAWN, who knows). but whatever, this wins. -9 #knowledgelarge
none of this crap would hae happened without retracer. quackle likes 7C TEPEE a lot more, or 7B ETAPE, etc. i think with all the Us out i might be able to score more next turn. -10 #strategylarge
dunno, what letter do you put in the 2x2 lane if you know Matt is strong AND he has an A? He probably also has an E, so RETINAE looks better. #tacticssmall
i did see 2F JEE, but didn't like that i don't have one of the A's to front-hook it. i don't like it that much, idk. i think i would still do JIG any day unless someone convinces me otherwise. -4 #tacticssmall (if anything)
I hallucinated A1 I(D)OLATOR even though I tracked correctly and made what I thought was a 400 IQ block when there's actually no triple-triple available in the pool and I sacked a bunch of equity. I'm fairly sure this never loses though. #strategysaddest
Quackle despises this, but I think it's fine - GOO isn't a good leave but the PLAYMATES spot is quite dangerous and IDEAL does as good a job of blocking it as I can while scoring a lot in the process. I saw GEOIDAL but it leaves lots of stuff like ZEES there and also puts an A in a dangerous spot at K8. Maybe a #strategysmall, but I still think my play is ideal.
I'm not sure... I think a12 plays come down a lot, in which case I want to keep as much bingo space open. based on a sim, it seems like the top left marginal lanes are realllly marginal, keeping them open barely improves my bingo chances. I think I should do WAND or D(A)N L7 over CANID, if an a12 play is happening I want to go harder on the bingo%, it will be difficult to outrun. WAND could possibly outrun. #strategysmall
If I saw the 7, which I unfortunately did not, 7B LARIGAN is the move at this score. I effectively make the top right of the board hard to access and 14A LARRIGAN gives him great counterplay. #findingmedium
could someone explain how GOT gives up 2 more pts on average than TOG? easier to overlap? is it just the H hook? this is so weird. TOG also results in a higher average score for me next turn so overall this sims a shocking 1.5 pts worse than TOG! #strategysmall
now a complete miss of TROO(Z). I hated this move, and I should have kept looking instead of tilting. One-two punch and maybe I can no longer win this game #findingmedium
i should have played QUEUER (i wasn't 101% on it). i didn't want to give up an easy high scoring S hook. but it's important to balance my rack. -5.5 #tacticsmedium #knowledgesmall
I didn't like 11I MOW because it didn't give me an S hook, but I still bingo so much more since 8s are a thing. I could just do DOW if that bothers me so much. #tacticssmall
The engine says 8K SCOUG wins 8/8, but it gets really close if I draw the Q, which leads to a long stick sequence that wins by ~10. This sacs a ton of spread but has clear wins with a Q draw. #strategysaddest
WEEDIER only plays in Collins! :( WEIRD might just give up too many points. JEWED or WIDEN sim better partially for that reason -- i also bingo slightly more often after JEWED. -2 #strategysmall
6A YARDeRS #knowledgesaddest #visionsaddest. This ends up being a 12-point dynamic equity mistake. I saw the word but wasn't sure of it. I might have tried it but didn't even see the spot. My play is second best tho
GIS and just GI bingo much more than GIT, though keeping both esses ensures that I sometimes get QIS scoring plays to bring up my low-end scores next turn after GIT. Obviously, GIS is ill-advised here thanks to the EGIS hook, but I accept that GI should've been my play. #tacticssmall
This is the best bingo, but 15H MIRID is better. It sacrifices 34 points, but it takes out the (WALLEYE)D spot and keeps ?N, which often draws into bingos hooking UPDRAW#. #tacticssmall
Quackle strongly favors exchanging keeping only the S; the best play on the board has over 6% less win chance. I can't explain that, but YIRR has the shortcoming of providing two extra lanes for Betty to play a bingo--columns J and K.#tacticslarge apparently
This is a huge mistake because it allows 10B JAR creating a pretty much unblockable A(JAR) hook. I was trying to block 11C RAJ, but I should have played D1 WYLE allowing it and the board is toast. #strategylarge
Was nervous about big bingos making LOX and EPIC after E5 OX and figured WYE could outrun any airballs with SEPIC. I think the idea is fine with WYE, but if I'm gonna do that I should play YOWIE. #findingsmall
missed some flat out better options. although finite is nice to keep the board open, and sets up a hook he may be unsure of, it still gives up Q/X bombs and easy overlaps. 9E FIE or 9F IF are good here, the former to complicate the situation a bit more, the latter perhaps a bit more optimal. #findingsmall
I need to do L3 (E)A if I want my own bingo. (FA)A is next best but my bingo chances plummet from more than 2/3rds of the time to less than half the time #strategysaddest
Odd that I didn't think of 5E OVERATE or even 10H COX; just debated OX vs EX, really. I figured the Z already played in some good spots and I would bingo more after EX than OX, which is true. But OVERATE is much better defensively and draws into XI 14J with an I and redraws the EX/OX plays atop MANURE next turn with any of AEO, at which point I can play them without worrying about high scoring parallels. #findingsmall 17:23
Felt clever mathing this out and feeling like I had gotten this endgame right - but Quackle humbles me with 2L NAN, setting up NANE/KELP in a way which can only be blocked if Lynda plays something like US/NANS for 10, eating both the J and V when I respond with 15K KELPY. KLAP is second best and 4 points off of that sequence. #endgamesmall 7:10
I was sad to see touche come down! not only does it make a sneaky K1 lane, it also blocked my devastating V(OUCH) setup I was gonna make, setting up JAW or JAG. but ah fuck I missed a great opportunity with (Y)AWL here, setting up JEW above for hella plays, JIG, JAG next turn which happens a lot. I got really tunneled on VEG vs. JEW and misssed that opportunity, which REALLY helps me outrun. #visionmedium
QUODS is better: it scores 6 more points, and my rack is full of consonants, making the S less worth keeping. K4 VELD is interesting, setting up 8K SQUAB or SQUIB with the right draw. #strategysmall
WA: I didn't see F10 TATOU, which looks nice, especially if I read HOB as a Z setup; though keeping the T for TREW is helpful as well. I'll go ahead and say #visionsmall.
wow. CEROES* is phony. CERO is a fish, not the number ZERO. never knew that. REBEC is still the best play, but i can't find plays like that when i'm 1-5 no matter how positive i am. -1 #knowledgelarge #tacticssmall
missing the beautiful (JIN)GKO at 10F. This seemed better than GE(C)K for draws at RESEX* which I hope I would have remembered is invalid. #findingSADDEST
cmon cesar you know this isn't gonna sim well. yes it's good to play some defense but this is kinda weak. right? FEIRIE G9 sims best, i kinda like it. -7 #strategymedium
#knowledgesad for challenge and #Knowledgesaddest for chickening out of CITROUS (i felt like my impulse control was shot on Day 2 from lack of sleep and wanted to rein hallucinations in)
I knew all 4 in AEKOSTTU, but in a panic I hallucinated that a bingo through the K fit, and spent a few minutes trying to block that and A8 OUTEATe(N). With about 1 minute left I realized I only needed to block the O column, but this actually loses. Only A13 GA(N) and GI(N) win, both by 2. My play loses by 1. #endgamesaddest
3B OW seemed crazy. I can see why this could be a strategical oversight- G3 WO is 8 fewer points but my bingo % shoots up to 43% compared to just 13% after WITES. It still sims quite a bit ahead of WITES despite what might usually be a big difference in score. On the other hand, this isn't even that good of a board for bingoing besides the open T in PAINT. Other than that, I pretty much have to play a 9 or score like 61 with the S in AMNESIAS. Quackle has puts some 3A plays ahead of some Column G plays. #strategymedium?
EXED much better, fewer points, but blocks Wendy's best chance at winning COXES making LORDINGS also good, didn't know that was valid. #endgameSAD #knowledgeSAD #strategySAD
I saw N2 BREN immediately but chickened out of it. saw 5K BR(I)N and 5J NEV(I), never considered 5L V(I)NT etc etc. i knew this was a mistake as i was doing it, but i didnt wanna phony and have this rack for a second turn #knowledgesaddest
I liked that I saw this play hoping he wouldn't see that METICAL is good, but 13B ME(S)TIZA is a more sound play, clearly best, and is 56 which was missed. #findinglarge
7I HIRCINe and I chickened out of I4 CHIR(M)INg because why would that be a word? #KNOWLEDGESADDEST
Spoiler: I maintain that spending like 100 minutes on this move is what cost me the game (along with all of my following mistakes). Stay tuned for primo facepalm opportunities.
Q actually recommends SOH at J8 for 42 points here. I suppose it holds JEAN at J2 next turn. This and JEON are neck and neck, I suppose it's a matter of how volatile I want next turn to be #findingsad
D10 PRANG sacrifices 6 points but sets up the S on row 15. H11 USURP wins the sim, surprisingly; apparently it allows fewer bingos than either PRANG. But I prefer D10 PRANG. #tacticsmedium
This isn't bad. But at nationals, a good move isn't exactly good enough. L8 (C)APFUL was missed for 4 more and sets up my S so well. For only 4 less points, CAPFUL is absolutely worth it and would have created a more favorable board for me. #visionmedium
it's a significant mistake here to miss DORMY. YOU there is (a lot?) better; it sets up a new lane and it also gives up fewer points. -2 #strategysmall