I thought I needed to score with N11 EWT but something like 12L (JA)GG or 12L (JA)GS is probably the best attempt. His plays from the Z might not outrun bingos at 2B. #strategysaddest
i did see MOTHERLY here but it didn't seem worth it to bingo for "only" 62. that's actually pretty dumb; particularly because motherly also blocks a lane and puts me up by a ton. MOUTH actually does better by equity, but motherly wins by win%, by just a little. #strategysmall
totally at a loss because I didn't know GUGGLE. I tried to push the issue as a result. KUGEL might have been better if it weren't for his range of mostly consos. #knowledgesmall
i should have just played VIPER at 8A. i keep the Z to score next turn. i thought she was less likely to have a bingo through the O, after what could be a vowel dump. quackle likes 15A UP keeping VIZOR for next turn. -7 #strategymedium
I spent quite a lot of time on this, aapparently I should play FOU on the bottom for defense, but its really close. I actually didn't generate that. -1 #visionsmall BUFO sims one up too. FOU top gives away 3 more, which is a lot.
i was in a bad mental state after losing the first game, and i know this affects me. FL(O)P is the equity play here. I think when I'm tilting, I just make weird bad plays, either adjusting to score too much or to leave too much, depending on how worried I am. I may have overcompensated here, thinking i better take the extra 5 points and keep MNT instead of EMNT (i even remember thinking the E is not worth 5 points, so take the 5 points, but as is common for me when I'm playing unwell, I don't pay attention to defense at all -- PELF gives up 4 more pts on average than FL(O)P). -3 #strategysmall
part of the reason i played this instead of the standard QI is the hope of challenging off a hook on it. some dead 6s are tricky and i think this is one of them. still, it's certainly not optimal play. -4 #tacticsmedium
I think it might be fine to cash in immediately with 2J ZE(A)lS immediately which I didn't even see. I'm up by enough that I can comfortably just score. #findinglarge
i spent a long time on this move and then made a bad play. i should play CURIE 10K here, i considered it and it is aggressive, and good, i have the case S. it might be slightly worse because he is consonant heavy. i strongly considered 9C UNTIE as well, and saw that the bag was consonant heavy (11 vowels and 16 consonants unseen). i knew he probably had like 4-5 of the consonants at least based on his last few plays, so that may even out the bag a little bit, but still, UTE seemed to bingo a lot. my problem is that the bag still has a lot of ugly high point tiles that won't bingo. i was worried that if i played UNTIE or CURIE i would draw 4 consonants and my rack would go to hell. still, i don't know how i spend such a long time on this rack and then make such a lame move. i should be less afraid and play CURIE. there are high scoring tiles to go for like the J, Z, X which i need to outrun him. i even considered DA(CE) for quite a while, which sims almost as well as CURIE. i basically grossly overestimated how much UTE would bingo, and then spent a while trying to justify to myself that i should play it, and then decided it was worth the risk. i was totally wrong. -9.5 #strategylarge
thought a lot about LI(E) 10B to set up PLIE, but if he plays QI/LI there I might be in trouble. I didn't know PULY#, which seems right at 3L #knowledgeSAD
At this point I was shitting my pants. I thought he had S? and was gonna end me on row 14. I burnt a lot of time thinking of ways I could block, I even considered 14D TOC before realizing that was insane. I eventually resigned to just play equity, but I had already used like 5 minutes or something. B2 NOTC(H) looks fine here. #visionSADDEST
Quackle hates this exchange and wants me to conserve spread by playing G3 WOWS, blocking the bingo lanes on rows 2-4 while saving 4I LUAU for next turn. #tacticsmedium
L8 FAINE, 8K (I)NFIX, L8 FAIX, and 14B X(ER)AFIN are all better than this, apparently. I didn't consider playing that open but they score enough. #strategysadder
CODA is the sorrt of play I usually make, but COS scores way better than GOS here. this is also only slightly more defensive, and the top left is gonna get plays in the next turn so I'm not worried about the lane longterm. for reference, i score over 10 more after DAGO than CODA! I can also score an extra 6 points next turn by playing GOOD 2c, keeping the A for overlaps and a better leave overall. that is probably the play, it gives up fewer bingooes than DAGO as well. #findingsmall
Will: Too crazy. I was going for the maximum chance at a 9x myself here and also a fallback of ZANIER with an E draw. But the simple 14A VAW still preserves a good crack at a 9x while scoring 18 more points. #strategylarge
-14 ! bad bad move here. i liked it thematically; blocking a few vertical bingo lanes. quackle prefers three moves at 12K - PAW, MAW, WAP. ordinarily, with a nice lead, it would be foolish to open the board like that. however, her bingo chances are very low - there's only 1 E, lots of I's and other ugly letters left. so PAW is good! #strategylarge #focus #bag
I think it's fine to get the F off my rack since the F doesn't mesh well with the K or the M. It's very close with doing M12 FAX in equity and the sim. I am shocked to see that I actually bingo 24% after FAX vs only 7% after FUNK. That ought to sway me in the direction of playing FAX simply because I want to bingo asap when I have the blank. While I was hoping to pick an I for 14F XI, I definitely underestimated how good KMN? actually is for bingoing given the open S available. #strategymedium
I thought it was only CAYOMAS* instead of MACOYAS (I got confused with CAEOMAS) so this is a huge mistake. I was probably supposed to play G2 RUBI(CONED) which is totally badass. #KNOWLEDGESADDEST
Missed the sweet (F)O(D)GEL. I am not in a good position, but any board opening play I can make will just get outrun too easily. FODGEL is a better version of this plsy. #visionmedium
I like how well this goes through the tile bag while I'm ahead by a lot, but 2K BOIT(E) was missed and should have been the play. I should be making plays with less turnover with all those As left. #visionmedium
6A UNA(L)I(v)E and B1 U(N)AI tie the game. I thought of B1 UNAI before it was blocked but didn't realize it was still available. With more time I think I would have been able to find at least B1 U(N)AI. #TIMESADDEST
completely spaced on scart this game, so thought was being exteremely safe emptying the bag with safe, but most certainly was not #strategylarge #findinglarge
It doesn't look like there's any out in 2 that blocks row 15, but 14G T(E)NOR is best threatening C12 J(O)UR to go out and G3 J(E)U once it gets blocked. #endgamesaddest
I missed an opportunity here--8L FIG sets up the S at O8, and it can be blocked only with the remaining A. Quackle prefers GIF for some reason? #tacticsmedium
looks like WAND or exchange here (CNS or CST are both fine, going for the COBIA hook). CDNST is really lane cause I don't even bingo often, and when I don't I'm not in a great position. WAX also encourages COBIA to be blocked. I think I should exchange. #tacticssmall
Sim winner is STUPA 5F, blocking LE(TUP). Ok, I'm sleep-deprived and all, and I have no time left, but I'm just saying: even on a good day, I'm never finding that. (-13) #endgamelarge #timemanagementlarge
I thought there was a bingo in here, and there was. LIVERISH is very foreign-looking to me. It would not have saved me, but it's definitely the right play #knowledgelarge
There are some bingos through the O that I have to block, but M6 FA is apparently better. I think we forgot to add the +5 for this challenge during the game. #endgamesaddest
Joey: ESCARGOT
Josh: had I seen ESCARGOT during my thought process last turn or as a review of said thought process this turn, I would have challenged QUICKY* off the board and been ahead by 200. I should still challenge because how likely is he to block the D anyway? I don't need to worry pretty much at all about having a spot to bingo. Horrible #knowledgesaddest
i got so afraid that he would have some 3-3 through IT that i decided to block it, instead of just play AA, keeping EINRS for the triple-triple (or a likely bingo) myself! i really psych myself out a ton when playing top players. -10 #strategylarge
Absolutely clutch draw with picking both remaining Ss on just a 3 tile pull. I did bend by accepting the phony, which led to him drawing into his 1st bingo, but there's nothing I can do about his 2nd one except score and dump the V. I also could have left the S off to try scoring with YAEGERS*, which he might not even challenge if both of us really thought YAEGER* was good. #strategymedium
JEFE increases his avg score b quite a bit, but also does for mine. With no range implied, JEFE seems fine, but given his bingo heavy range, it seems like B7 FEY is better to not give back higher scoring bingoes and a nice lane. #strategysmall
lucky pull from AEEIT. I misevaluated this position, I thought he would bingo a lot more after TEATIMES than MEATIEST, but it's only a tiny bit more, and he scores over 2.5 more on average after MEATIES, presumably cause of C and E column overlaps, which are also bingo lanes that balance out the TEA 8s lanes, making MEATIEST only barely more bingo defensive. I am more focused on bingo defense here, but it's such a tiny difference in bingo% I should just play TEATIMES. #tacticssmall
Was really close to playing SLY; somehow missed J4 IDYLS which looks good too. DITZY gets hit way harder in response and scores much less. #strategymedium #findingmedium 21:44
I had problems focusing and counting plays here. I don't remember exactly, but I remember counting both plays and getting it wrong and then trying again and getting it right, but blocking the TO and partially the E in AUTOED is much better for bingo defense than blocking up top. This is a stupid decision on my part. I think I thought I could deal with the right side later. #strategysmall
Even if the scores of both HEW plays were reversed, I should still play under AUTOED.
It's not like I was a huge fan of this play, but again, it seemed pretty straightforward. It's not. It's way less defensive than POGO and even EGO. POGO is probably the best play #strategysmall
I have like 0% chance of winning. With L11 SIEGE at least I can prioritize reaching 300 sometime this century. But, like, it's the case S. I'm feeling greedy. Also I forgot to look on that side of the board. #strategysaddest ? #visionsaddest ALSO #knowledgesad for challenging a 3. May or may not have been a "stop closing down the board for the love of god" challenge, but my lips are sealed
poor endgame. i wan't totally sure on FLOCS so didn't want to play it first. #endgamelarge #knowledgelarge. i bled a lot of spread this tourney and it may have made some difference for the cash prizes.
this move right here, officer. what was i thinking? luckily, i have an exact snapshot into my mental state at the time, so i'll write it here. let's see, i'm up by NINE points and he just set up an obvious S hook (yes, i forgot that it took a T until after i hit the clock). so, he has an S, and likely another E. he just played off two tiles, and my defense has been terrible this tournament, so it all comes down to this next move; it is crucial to prevent his bingo since i'm not ahead by much at all. this is a 36.5 point mistake (the obvious KEET is the only play here worth making) with no inference; with an EST inference (let's say), this "only" becomes a 33-point mistake. now, with a clear head: it DOES cut his bingo percentage to almost 0%, but he still scores 36 pts on average! and i'm not going to survive that with this lame move. and, most crucially, something that i realized right after, is that no sane person is going to play B(ID)E with a bingo leave. why would he set up a SCORING spot if he has a strong bingo leave, instead of trying to open up another bingo lane? so it's unlikely that he has a strong bingo leave, but is instead trying to set up a 50+ point score next turn. but i freaked out, didn't even think of BIDET, and had already decided to block the bingo lane at all costs. #strategySADDEST #focusworst
Hated to not play on row 14 but those plays just get smashed compared to RIB. But there's a cool nuance I didn't really appreciate here; while plays like sim-winning 14E BITTED surely give up a few more points than RIB does, they actually decrease Tijan's bingo% quite a bit compared to RIB. That's because row 14 after BALDY is much easier to hit than row 15 after BITTED, and RIB also gives him a bonus floater of a B to play with. Quackle is pretty emphatic that this is a #strategymedium.
J2 V(I)N and 6D V(IF)F sim best here. I liked H2 G(U)V because it killed the top part of the board and H1 plays by Austin create long term problems for board control. The equity is just too bad though, and a two consonant draw is devastating. H2 F(U)NG is a better version of this idea (since I get another shot at a vowel) but still bad. #strategylarge
CoCo Seattle Scrabble tournament round 5. I have heard it said that on an opening turn, one should exchange rather than playing a low-scoring vowel dump, to avoid allowing eights. That is especially true here, as I can keep a better leave after exchanging AOU. #strategysmall
Here I overreacted to my good 7s lane being blocked and grabbed at points. 9C LUG has the nice attribute of setting up a new lane for ING with GLUG hooks; but it's very hard to imagine Matthew not blocking it somehow. Instead I think I prefer the simple C7 LIG over GRIG, just to maintain much better leave synergy. I also get some draws towards GLIFT and GLIFF 8A, which would be annoying board openings for Matthew. #strategysmall