If I play 11B B(AN)GED, I can't leave O or L in the bag (provided Ben plays N2 WAX(IER)). After WAXIER, B(AN)GED still has a 60% shot. BUT even after drawing the L or O, B(AN)GED loses to perfect play. Ben has one move (from his POV) that wins 100% of the time: 11I UNRID because it goes out with every draw from the bag. So blocking doesn't work here.
If I assume Ben sees:
-11I UNRID but not INSURED (or doesn't see either), 11B B(AN)G or V(AN)G are probably OK since UNRID only works because it guarantees an out for him next turn and CDEVN is pretty good for the bag (by playing 2 instead of 4, I might get first-mover advantage in the endgame). Buuuut OBANG is a thing and it doesn't look entirely blockable. So my opponent would have to assume I'm setting up an O that I don't actually have (and a 2/5 shot is not incredible). My opponent is probably forced to find INSURED then.
-INSURED but not UNRID, then B(AN)GED might be OK? It would still lose to something like 11I SURED, but would win as long as he draws the U if he plays UNRED/URNED/RUNED.
-both INSURED *and* UNRID, then V(A)C maximizes my chances of drawing a bingo (there's 6/10 draws that work, which is the same shot as B(AN)GED as long as WAX(IER) is played). BUT, Ben's likely playing 11G INSURED for 72, so BONDAGE and BANDAGE (70) tie; BUNGLED, BLUNGED and BANGLED (69) lose by 1; and DOGBANE loses by 2.
Instead, if I play 2G B(A)NG keeping CDEV, I can sometimes draw into 11F COUVADE and 11G ALCOVED (or B5 ALCOVED and B5 COUVADE depending on where he plays).
V(A)NG draws into BECLOUD or CODABLE, but BECLOUD only fits on the B column and CODABLE goes in both spots, so Ben might play INSURED on the B column to block BECLOUD if I draw it.
The funny thing is, after B(A)NG, Ben might realize that I want him to bingo. If he surmises that I'm keeping at least three consonants after B(A)NG, he can just play 6 tiles (almost guaranteed to give him an out). Against the range of partial leaves CVD, CVL, CDL, and VDL, Ben's best play is (AN)EURINS, which (I think) wins 100% if he doesn't draw the V.
Soooo, after all that, B(A)NG might just be my best bet. Gonna put this one down as #strategysaddest
this was purposeful, I was extremely rattled at having drawn my 8th blank in 4 games as the last tile in the bag. I saw that this was 20 points off but had to do it. #endgamelarge
I probably didn't need to be so defensive here since Amika didn't keep an S after OOLITE. I got too focused on blocking this and shoud have looked harder and spotted C9 DA(B)BLE for 40, even with the hooks it takes. That's too many more points. #visionmedium
After TREM, I would have to find EF B7 over OF, to set up OV(ER), perhaps, to win in the endgame.
For some reason Quackle can't find this play in the endgame, but it's 8 worse than 7B OF setting up STOVE 6K. #endgamemedium
Pivotal move. I saw the star equity move of 14F YGOE leaving the nice DENR; but that leave isn't particularly helpful for bingoing on this board. I felt it was much more important to blow through some tiles to get at least one of the four unseen esses for JIBERS. However, what the DENR leave *is* helpful for doing is letting me score with WEIGHTED, WEIGHERS, or WEIGHMEN with any of MSSSST, and in general good leave synergy/balance never hurts. #strategymedium
she played ZIT with mucho gusto, and it made me think it was probably a setup. I worried that F(I)G, the best block I saw, was gonna be too big a sacrifice in the case it wasn't. however, I think I should have trusted my read on her since even with just XI implied FIG beats FOE and OF by over 5 points. with QI implied it's an even bigger difference, of course. #strategymedium
MM: Lots of mediocre choices here. C1 JET sets up DU-- plays but seemed too risky with DKR left to hook EF and AAUU left to hook UTE. I liked that JOLT saved UNFED, which is fairly unlikely to get blocked. Noah pointed out after the game that UNFED first might be better, as I have a chance of hitting 3G JAR next turn for a lot if I can pull one of the 2 remaining As. And DUNE as a leave probably doesn't have much potential to improve beyond UNFED. So going to call this a #strategysmall.
now I see the spot and decide POUNCY* is phony
I missed every scoring option here. PUNANY# and UNPAY# and NU(N)NY# I didn't know, but L4 NANCY sims best. #findinglarge
I intentionally did not go out with 13C sENN(IT) knowing he had 3 seconds left on his clock and was going to lose 10 points accordingly. D8 N(AB)Es would have been better than my move to prevent his highest scoring out play. #endgamesmall
jesus i still didn't know if TAENITE was TWL, and i remember checking it after the game. 1A TENIAE sims best, despite opening up a potentially dangerous 8 lane. i think it wants me to kill row A's huge scores. bANJO or something. -5.5 #strategymedium
I didn't consider for long enough the option of exchanging OQ. I also eschewed the defensive aspect of LOX. It would appear exchanging down to ELR is best here #tacticssmall
Doubted myself on AVERTERS and didn't spot the STARVER spot. This is the best non-bingo play but it still sucks majorly. 9G STARVER #visionsaddest #knowledgesaddest
Sim winner is STUPA 5F, blocking LE(TUP). Ok, I'm sleep-deprived and all, and I have no time left, but I'm just saying: even on a good day, I'm never finding that. (-13) #endgamelarge #timemanagementlarge
EXED much better, fewer points, but blocks Wendy's best chance at winning COXES making LORDINGS also good, didn't know that was valid. #endgameSAD #knowledgeSAD #strategySAD
this however is a big mistake. i totally didn't spot JEEZ, so ZA there is perfectly fine, but so is CRAZE(D) if i miss ZA. i remember thinking of crazed and i wasn't enthused about it. i wanted to just keep scoring but thought this was probably not quackle's option; i was pretty far off. #strategylarge #focus -15
The same word plays at 6E for 3 more points and blocks the -ER lane on row 5. I think I saw it. My play is more defensive, blocking the lanes on columns D and E without opening any new lanes. #tacticssmall
shiiiiiit I missed FREMD. #findinglarge I was also close to exchanging here, and I think it is fine, especially cause DEFT doesn't take an S so overlaps may not leave me with much. ERST sims best, followed by EMRST then DERST then DEFT quite a bit below #tacticssmall as well for the DOUBLE FAIL!!1
this was really bad, since I was almost sure ENORMS* was good, despite it coming up with Rafi at 2022 Word Cup. Misremembered, horrendously. #knowledgesaddest
VAR(I)X might be better since I keep the W for J10 and G7. I don't like 2E AX since it leaves me vulnerable should Leesa decide to gambit and throw a 3x3 or a lucrative hook open. I thought I could just draw an A and play J4 V(I)VA, which doesn't seem to get blocked a ton. I think VAR(I)X is OK but I liked using columns L and M instead of J. #tacticssmall
G3 GAP or PEG in the spot where I played are better to preserve the CKLR synergy. Another idea is N2 PRICKLE, hoping to draw tiles to outrun. #strategysmall
just play X(U). This was stupidly fancy and cost me the game. It just seemed to fit my Nationals profile. Also shout out to PAN(CREATIN). #tacticslarge
After Bryan's last play, I was nervous about doing K4 NERVuLE. It's possible he might have had an R for the RANI hook, but of course he could have also kept AEIN or EINT as a leave. Accordingly, I chose a bingo that did not take an S. I couldn't remember if LEVANTER took an S (it does). That said, I should have given more thought to doing K6 NERVuLE for an extra 2 points and if Bryan might not have kept high pointers to try to go for them myself. #strategymedium
jvc: I think M8 OUTATE is probably better than this, but it's really aggressive so I'm not sure if it's best. This is definitely a mistake though. #findingmedium
thought about AA for real, which is prob what I play normally, but I didn't like how risky DEIOT was, especially on this board with not many good options for it if I don't hit. 4L ODEA is also fine as a more open option, but AA is nice and defensive. AA just performs similarly to ALODIA in most ways so the score is worth it. I'll say #tacticssmall cause it's probably an overadjustment
i did see OXO but i found it much more important to kill that S hook on NAIRU. but is it really that dangerous? QUA also lets him score to the triple, although there's only a couple hook tiles left in the bag. D3 QAID is fine too. -10.5 #strategylarge
3B OW seemed crazy. I can see why this could be a strategical oversight- G3 WO is 8 fewer points but my bingo % shoots up to 43% compared to just 13% after WITES. It still sims quite a bit ahead of WITES despite what might usually be a big difference in score. On the other hand, this isn't even that good of a board for bingoing besides the open T in PAINT. Other than that, I pretty much have to play a 9 or score like 61 with the S in AMNESIAS. Quackle has puts some 3A plays ahead of some Column G plays. #strategymedium?
#knowledgesmall for WINDWAy. I desperately set up a 3x3 with TAO. The sim winners are C1 ALO(W) and A3 OLEA, with the same idea. ALO(W) nearly maximizes my average score next turn, while TAO maximizes my opponent's score. #strategymedium
I opted to empty the bag here because I was scared that fishes drawing into bingos with R in final position would be unblockable, and felt that playing along row 15 to the middle TWS blocked the most bingos; but it's actually tough for Jason to fish one tile in a way that scores enough for his eventual bingo to win. Something like 15M ERG or ORG to prevent the truly nasty bingos available with FLYPES is probably best. I was at least correct that playing at H15 cuts his bingo% the most. #strategysmall
No home for IMPOSTS or MISSTOP. I did think about simply playing off an S with G7 (HOY)S to fish for 15A OPTIMIS(E) or 15A EPISTOM(E) and so that Ed can't just drop an A at 10G. This way, I can eventually open up the top left of the board if I pick an A. It felt like too big of a point sacrifice on a board that is only getting worse for bingoes due to me needing an E to make any sort of Column M plays. In addition, there's only 4 Is and 7 Es and a blank left to hit those specific bingoes. However, the sim appears to back up HOYS here as it is a slightly slower attempt to deplete the tile bag. #strategymedium
:O blocked IRONIES and DERISION and didn't have a blank! I think I have to go for turnover here with IRO(N)IES despite being more likely to hit a bingo after RONIN #strategysmall
I don't need to be worried about being bingoed on, I need to worry about being outrun with the Z still out. H1 CEILIS is best simpy because it scores. #KNOWLEDGESADDEST #strategylarge
such an insane bingo available here. Can you find it? This is probably worse than MAY L11 because although I block myself with MAY, I also give him a lot less to work with, and I have the blank, so I don't really need to leave everything open. #tacticssmall #findingmedium #knowledgemedium
J: I thought about this and then realized BLOTCHED probably doesn't have an anagram. Still thought that I was desparate enough. I had O7 GYBED though, and honestly only saw it after losing the challenge. This is on one of Carl's phonies lists and apparently he had just recently mentioned it to Sid. #knowledgelarge
C: During my insomniac studying session on Friday night/ Saturday morning, this was one of the phonies I studied. I always see BLOTCHED/BEDCLOTH* but I was ready for it this time. Some sick timing!
3G PRODDERS is the bingo that he just had to take out! PEDRO in the same spot does sim better than this understandably because I have the S. That's a miss. #findingbad
i wasn't totally sure on FOLIAGED. FADO at N11 is simming best. it seems a bit too aggressive for my liking, but maybe i can do D9 DEAF or DEFEAT then (i didn't see AMIRS). my play bingos < 60% of the time and it may not be worth it. -4.5 #tacticsmedium #knowledgemedium #visionmedium