i saw D# VI(LI)FY and then convinced myself you need two Ls to spell it. N12 D(IVI) does slightly better than FOY, probably because having 3 Is is something that only Odysseus dreams of (if you know, you know) #strategysad
now i'm treading water but should still be strongly favored to win if i make the right play here. 6I NEWIE is fine, score 11 more and keep a more balanced leave at least! argh! -10 #strategylarge
The only bingos are 1G WHIlLIED# and WHILlIED, which I did not know. However, Quackle prefers 13A IWI#, which keeps a better leave than WILI# (including two vowels, which is important given the consonant-heavy pool) and gives me a chance to play a bingo from 1H-1O next turn. I considered 9M WAI#, with the same idea; but WAI performs slightly worse than IWI and the bingos, likely because it blocks column L. #strategymedium #knowledgemedium
I couldn't see any way to fish off 1 tile and guarantee a bingo in two spots that can't be blocked. It turns out there are none, but fishing off the U draws into I6 AN(T)Il(A)BOR and 14F BARItON(E) which is pretty cool, but I'm never finding I6 AN(T)Il(A)BOR and blocks of 14F BARItON(E) will often block I6 AN(T)Il(A)BOR too if I somehow manage to find it (I won't) and he doesn't. None of this matters too much anyway since this is the finals and a tie is pretty unlikely. 1C (C)ARIBOU is probably fine. #findingsadder
Only four possible racks from the unseen tiles yield bingos: EEINRSS, EEIORSS, EENORSS, and EINORSS. PI blocks EEINRSS and EINORSS at N7, but I had not seen that Carl could play 9H ROSERIES or 10H SORENESS. N7 PADRI, RAPT, or RIANT or 9H RITARD blocks all possible bingos. #findingsmall
14J TROGGS sims best, but I'm not sure if I prefer that given her range. Although I really liked what J9 (A)GGRO did to the board with my leave, I don't think this is correct, though I'm not really sure what is. N4 GROG and 13K GORG(E) seem like reasonable options. #strategymedium
hmm not sure why I chose LINGOES over LONGIES. I think I had taken a while on the opening rack and wanted to be a bit quicker on this move. It's an extremely minor difference but it's definitely a bit defensive and favorable to play LONGIES. Calling it a vision mistake because I saw all the words in the rack but did not consider LONGIES in this spot. #visionsmall
I was low on time and forgot to track the blank in BIOTITE. I gave up an played line with seconds left. Only 14A LINIE(R), 14A INLIE(R), and 12F (T)I(R)E win. #TIMESADDEST
such an insane bingo available here. Can you find it? This is probably worse than MAY L11 because although I block myself with MAY, I also give him a lot less to work with, and I have the blank, so I don't really need to leave everything open. #tacticssmall #findingmedium #knowledgemedium
I see the merit in Quackle's pick J10 HIT, that TIZ blocks the H spot at J10 and the Z can consistently score well. But I have a blank, and the H is better for bingos. #tacticssmall
Pretty interesting sim result here. Quackle's favorite play here is F7 FROG, followed by 2J HOG, 8L FAIR, 2J FOG, then my move of 2J FOH, then 8L FARO. They're all really closely packed together in valuation. Terry just bingoed and the board is loaded with high-equity scoring spots so simulation is going to be even more accurate than usual. FROG is both the highest scoring and most defensive move, cutting off SLEW and badly damaging the scoring potential of any racks Terry draws with the X in it. (By contrast, the Z plays all over the place on this board and there's little I can do about it.) I didn't think of FROG at all, unfortunately. On the other hand, I'm losing and might like SLEW to stay open. HOG vs FOG vs FOH at 2J is quite interesting. Sim prefers HOG, perhaps expecting me to get down some much heavier bingos with SHEN and THEN afterwards. My play of FOH gives me the highest bingo% on my next move, but nevertheless trails HOG by 3 points per turn because of those heavy bingos I draw into, and which stay open a huge amount of the time thanks to the other good scoring spots available. I'll give FROG a #visionsmall and HOG a #tacticssmall.
I was already overtime and didn't want to have to deal with the Q. If he plays tiles, he's guaranteed to have the Q which he's stuck with. If he passes then the game ends in a six pass. Both of those scenarios were much more emotionally appealing than playing tiles and potentially drawing the Q, even if playing something is the best play. #timesaddest
Even though I am basically hosed at this point, this should be 15H FRONT if I'm going to go here. I didn't recognize the JELLO hook for some reason. Even then, O1 FONT, which was missed, is better to leave the JELLS/JELLO hook open. #findingmedium
Wolfram remarked that he should have just kept the T after losing the challenge (or something to that affect) which is why I favored this over N1 AROID, but A10 (A)DAGIO is probably just better. #visionsadder
i shit you not the sim has me winning 100% of the time after 12K (T)RANQ. Maybe i outrun any bingos that are coming for me. never even saw this spot though, so #findingsaddest, i guess?
I am terrible. I thought it was only KNAIDELS and that I had phonied with SANDLIKE before, but it was DIRTLIKE* against Vera in 2013 where I had TIDELIKE available and chose wrong. Stupid stupid, this is the perfect time to phony anyway. Dahhhhh also KADI and KINDA..... #knowledgesaddest #findingsaddest
This is a massive blunder. I thought I could infer that he was trying to dodge the Q from his previous play, but he ended up having QU with a strong leave, which seems more likely. I thought since the Q might be in the bag I need to give myself a spot for it at 6F after he takes the triple on row 1. I really just need to not give back such massive counterplay and admit I lose if the Q is in the bag without the U. #strategysaddest
#knowledgesad for challenge also can someone make this man please stop bingoing. im asking for my health just nbd
also O10 TENT(H)S but who's counting #findingsaddest #endgamesaddest
wrote a big X here on my scoresheet, which seems to designate that I saw that I had missed NAKFA from the N in DESIGNEE. #findingmedium
AUK L1 is only a 4-point sacrifice too, seems worth making for the leave.
i did see XEBE(C), but it's just.. you know, that seems like the only realistic way to lose now, even though i can't think of an 8-letter word with X in 4th position. #strategysmall
another poor decision. I felt I had a larger grasp on this game than in actuality. I should play 8L (O)OZE for more and leave the R open
not challenging last move was #knowledgelarge
this move is #tacticsmedium
not sure enough of BLAWED (and i really should be because i know BLAW is a verb, but maybe its only past tense is BLAWN, who knows). but whatever, this wins. -9 #knowledgelarge
At this point I think I have the board under control because she didn't put the E on HAWS, so I burnt the R so sevens didn't fit on the board. Big mistake. There are a bunch of vowels left and I'm not even up by that much. #strategymedium
Now I'm more inclined to open up since I'm down and he played off 3 tiles instead of one, though I should have looked at the pool here. 8L (C)OPE is clearly better. #strategysad
STOUP blocks row 14, the only bingo lane available to Richard (no O's or U's to parallel STOUP remain); but E9 INEPT does it better, sacrificing only one point while saving the S for row 15. OUTVAUNTED is awesome. #findingmedium
i missed reticule... sigh. yeah, i was definitely not feeling it at all this afternoon :( i'm not surprised i missed it. i don't think i miss it earlier in the tourney. but then again, this just shows me how much i need to study. that way even if i'm having a bad day, the words just come automatically. #knowledgelarge
well now i'm worried so it's ok to sacrifice some equity to block here. 3K OBOE just seems way too aggressive right? i guess OTIC keeps way too terrible of a leave, and he could still bingo through the B or something. M3 OE might be ok. idk. -12.5 #strategylarge
Thought hard about whether to play 5M DAB setting up KABO(B) which is kind of never blocked ever but I chickened out of it. I think I need to be a little more free with my setups sometimes but I'm glad I spotted this idea (and it does sim best.) #strategysad
I was trying to set up my S for PECS, but I didn't actually note that there's still two Hs out. I score and bingo the most next turn after J12 PEC, but my opponent also scores substantially more. L12 TEMP is fine here. #strategymedium
I spent quite a lot of time on this, aapparently I should play FOU on the bottom for defense, but its really close. I actually didn't generate that. -1 #visionsmall BUFO sims one up too. FOU top gives away 3 more, which is a lot.
Q prefers DUH by a bit, hmm. I feel like I want a better leave to deal with openings he may make, and HUV is more likely a non-exchange rack than RRUV. Q seems to think my average leave after DUH is better next turn, interesting. Maybe more exchanges? I'll say #tacticssmall but I'm not sure.
there are no scoring spots on this board, and the pool is clunky. Therefore this is actually a really poor decision over U(K)E or (K)UE. KUE was my other consideration, but I liked how this kept a bunch of things open and allowed me to sscore well next turn if I couldn't bingo. #tacticslarge
Second mistake in a row. I need to play BEEPING now while I have a playable bingo that scores 78. I balked at evening the score only to still be down tempo afterwards with potentially massive overlaps available; but there's only one A and one O left, so it's possible Terry can't even do anything on column A after BEEPING with APE/OPE. Also, GP? is pretty poor and there are a ton of whammy tiles in the bag that will torpedo my bingo% if I draw them. I regretted not playing BEEPING almost immediately. Quackle says it's a 7 point equity mistake. #strategymedium 10:20
It's probably fine to just score as many as I can immediately even though I was given the 10J hotspot, which is conducive to my F. It's simming a little ahead of GOX. #strategysmall
G2 UNCOPE wins more. I didn't want to give up all those floaters during the game, but most of them aren't that easy to use. Turns out it's not about the floaters, but denying my opponent an additional turn thus giving him fewer chances to fish. #strategymedium and #knowledgesad for the challenge