now that I'm not winning, I should at least be able to limit the damage a bit. between HUT and this, HUT is a lot better, since it keeps a scarce vowel. #strategymedium
Quackle loves 5K MU, which has better equity and a good chance of drawing a bingo at 10A. I don't remember whether I considered plays at 5K. MOB is also good. #strategysmall
Sheesh, you know DOTAL. What a garbage play this was. I also missed 10I TROD, which I think I like best. Interestingly, TROD loses to TROT in that spot in the sim, and they both lose to TRAT. Keeping the DO for B10? DOTAL wins the sim. #findinglarge
I found this turn difficult to evaluate given all of the high scoring options. I looked at YCLEPT plays, plays in the bottom left, and plays in the bottom right. I did not consider plays at 7G with the J which are key here. I can block the triple triple with 15M MOY and then score very well without needing the Y for the YCLEPT hook after he takes the bottom left triple by playing 7G JOB. #strategysaddest
suddenly, things aren't so clear. I don't remember if I missed VIN(Y)L or not. I think I really need to deal with one of the threats this turn. This seems like a tactical failure. #tacticsSADDEST
EDUCT closes the easiest bingo lane, row 15, which I shouldn't do when I am this far behind. Quackle suggests 2I LUCITE to open a lane on row 1, or C2 CLUED for equity. #tacticsmedium
2B AECIA is best, unloading vowels and occasionally drawing into 1A QAT with four T's unseen. I seem to never find AECIA, especially when I am distracted by the Q on my rack. #findingsmall
nice defense with CHORD. this is a very tilty play, I had memorizes the J?TTY variations and had I thought at all I would have remembered that the blank needs to be an E. #knowledgelarge
idk maybe do 10K OE in hopes of hitting EXARATE on row 14? i feel like opp never really lets that happen? probably worth trying tho and at least i don't empty the bag #strategysaddest
I might prefer playing this for 9 more at I5? Can't imagine this is worth sacrificing so much.
Upon reviewal I like I4 TRIP, since it blocks a lot of annoying scoring plays at H1, despite allowing me to bingo next turn significantly less. #strategysmall
Were TWIGHTING# not valid, JEE would win; it blocks Ben's outs and outruns J9 SH with 6H SET. Instead, JEE is a losing play. All of my winning plays make T(WIGhTING)#; M1 EST and SET are best. #knowledgelarge (-20)
As frustrating as this game was, I didn't see BIZE at 13F unfortunately. If I had to do it over again, I play 13F G(I)BE threatening to go out with N10 InIA and C10 lI(T)AI, forcing him to play 11I BIZ(E)S. #endgamebad
-14 ! bad bad move here. i liked it thematically; blocking a few vertical bingo lanes. quackle prefers three moves at 12K - PAW, MAW, WAP. ordinarily, with a nice lead, it would be foolish to open the board like that. however, her bingo chances are very low - there's only 1 E, lots of I's and other ugly letters left. so PAW is good! #strategylarge #focus #bag
I really just need to play off the X. Just gotta find my 9s. If he bingos with BOWS or BOWL, I get N(AT)ROLITE with an I or L, I get R(AT)TOONED, and with Y or S, I get (AT)TORNEYS. With an M, TORMENT(Or). And then there are the overlaps of whatever bingo Jon would play on row 13. Still, I do insta-lose after some bingos. X(ED) 13B is the alternative, setting up a new lane. There's only one E left. Even if Jon plays on the A column, I will usually win after an out-bingo. If he gets something huge like FILMIER A8 for 101, he will be at 439, with a full rack and an empty bag. If I draw the Y, I get ATTORNEYs for 94 and 14 from Jon, winning with a 455. If I draw a bingo on row 13 like TONNERs, I'm scoring 72 and getting 20, tying with a 439. That's at the upper end of bad for me. However, if Jon doesn't bingo immediately, the same will then apply for my bingos on the A column. So it gets kind of dicey. Still, it's a very interesting option. This one, OX, runs into some bad draws, with only a 2/3 chance at best of a bingo. Playing just the X off is more like a 75% chance. This does block a bit, and his bingos will actually open a lane after this, which is why I chose it. But this was a scared play. Could have really gone badly for me. #strategylarge
RIP, completely forgot to consider AHOLDS being valid, which I knew. SMUGGER wins. I made some insane calculation that this would tie if she saw (YE)TI 12A setting up (N)IDI and I blocked with G(I) D14, but she was low on time and I hoped that wouldn't be found. Quackle can't even find that sequence because it's so weird (and just flat-out wrong). Somehow didn't think of NIDI first. Oops. Also, just (YE)GG which I didn't have time to calculate wins as well, since she can't block oMeRS and go out in two and will lose by at the least 1 point! If she blocks the 3rd and 1st row with ID 1K, I win after (WIZ)aRdS and M(E) F14 since she isn't going out. Horrible miss on my part to finish a crazy game. If I play QUERYING first here, she can play I1 D(O) and just outrun me. #findingsaddest #endgamesaddest
What a horrible position this is! PED was such a scary play, and I can do very little about it. KIWI is dangerous as hell, especially since Mike almost certainly has bingo tiles after PED. But that means that oftentimes Mike will bingo on Row 1 next turn, and I'll get a big score at O1. Quackle exchanges here, and I don't blame it. I had half a mind to do so myself. (-2% win chances) #strategymedium
12C VID for the much better leave and also 100% win. also, notably, H(UM)P seems to win 100% of the time even though it leaves ERECTILE open, probably because i'll score a lot in the triple. i didn't see anything else.. this is a big mistake for spread purposes. #tacticslarge -54
crap!! i did that thing i do when i'm down early and instead of trying to keep a good leave i turn over tiles like an idiot! 3F OWIE keeps a great leave of GILN especially with the open letters on this board. -10.5 #strategylarge
I think I have to just give up and cut spread with K11 ADIEU at this point. Even if I draw the L, I have to play 5 tiles to score anything. I'll have better odds of drawing 14J J(E)TTY as opposed to 14J J(A)NTY after my play. #strategysmall
oof, this is a bad situation. considered IDS 15A strongly. it sims best. 27 pts is too much to give up. i was trying to go for some lucky big play and didn't want to take the triple. 9J IGGED is also pretty strong; my play is not good. -8 I think one of the main issues with my play, at least earlier on, but also in general, is just that i start freaking out and getting tunnel vision. I'm afraid of losing the game and it makes me only think of a small number of scattered options. I think I improved at this as the tournament progressed. #strategylarge
noooo just play B(O)W. i think i wanted him to waste some equity but why not try to bingo again. i'm trying to consciously fish a little less but blowing up INRST with a nice G to bingo through is just silly. -6.5 #strategymedium
huge misplay this turn, totally missed a lot of interesting options. HUMANE opens the door to GE(D) and LE(D)E and LE(D)GE as setups. GAED N2 is also perhaps a better play. S(T)AGED is interesting as well. The key here is whether he has a blank on his rack. I think the answer is usually, since Q(I) for 31 would often come down. But with the board not great for bingoes, or a rack that isn't helped by the blank a lot, he may elecet to play Qi without another blank in hand. I remember thinking it was decently likely he didn't have another blank, but wasn't sure. I now think that he would probably keep the blank very often and play for 31, the options to outrun in an endgame are immense. A sim has GED, LEDGE, STAGED, GAED, EDGE, and GLADE I'm really not sure what's right, but I am pretty sure I would play LE(D)GE had I seen HUMANE. #visionsmall
Absolutely clutch draw with picking both remaining Ss on just a 3 tile pull. I did bend by accepting the phony, which led to him drawing into his 1st bingo, but there's nothing I can do about his 2nd one except score and dump the V. I also could have left the S off to try scoring with YAEGERS*, which he might not even challenge if both of us really thought YAEGER* was good. #strategymedium