I missed the R hook on JAKE and the L hook for PATAGIA (which I straight up just didn't know, I thought it maybe took an S or nothing). Once I saw that B9 (BA)IRNS guaranteed the win I didn't really think too hard. #visionsaddest #knowledgesaddest
Apparently FOX is better, but it seemed like it gave back sooo much and I can score with the X next turn, but DHNR can turn into something as well. I could hit INHOLDER or something #tacticsmedium
Odd that I didn't think of 5E OVERATE or even 10H COX; just debated OX vs EX, really. I figured the Z already played in some good spots and I would bingo more after EX than OX, which is true. But OVERATE is much better defensively and draws into XI 14J with an I and redraws the EX/OX plays atop MANURE next turn with any of AEO, at which point I can play them without worrying about high scoring parallels. #findingsmall 17:23
DOOZIE might be 6 more but I figured the odds of Rob having a B or W weren't great so might as well try to get back in it this way. This is 2nd behind DOOZIE. #tacticssmall?
#knowledgesad for challenging JOBE. I swear my brain was like "yeah that's a word" but I was like "hmmm what if my brain's lying to me and it's NOT a word?" anyway. that happened.
the aggressive 14K F(I)CE sims far best, but are the 10 extra points of equity worth the incredible defense I am planning to play after FE(E)ING? (yes) #strategysmall
Regretting not doing VAWS now as I could have just kept scoring instead of commit myself to bingoing. I would've done C11 ABY except that I was easily envisioning situations where I hit a bingo that didn't play. Indeed, I get 77% bingo after ABY and 90% after BYE. Still at least a #strategysmall and maybe medium.
C: i think i lost it here. this is how to do well at nationals; find the winning play. i cashed in my D too early. i can have that spot later (if he blocks it i have AD/DAH too). i need to play at N13 so that he can't play there!! i was low on time, only about 3 minutes, but i didn't do a good enough job here :( -- the winning play is N13 REI #endgamelarge (it's a small error point-wise, but it loses the game)
A: Actually, REI loses by 2 after I play E4 RAH. (-6)
H7 VERB for 9 would have allowed the X spot to be open, although that's not a move I want to make against Mitchell. Against most other players, I might have done that as the opponent would have had to deal with the X hotspot allowing me the VERBS hook. #strategylarge
couldn't pass up the chance to hit a giant requinto 1/4 of the time.. (and antique if it gets blocked sometimes) but there's not much else to go for. i guess QUEAN for a good score at 3I as well. (but maybe i should just burn the blank and play that instead). -1 #strategysmall
I did intentionally choose this over J4 WEKAS and WAKES just because I have another S to make SKAS. I probably overvalued the K5 hotspot and he would probably sniff my setup and play defensively. WAKES and WEKAS are simming a couple points ahead of KAS despite my bingo % being roughly equal between WEKAS and KAS. #strategysmall
I'm supposed to shoot for my own bingo here. The only way I lose is if he bingos and I don't. I can't close the lanes here. Something like 8M AI(R) is nice because EISTT works really well with the floating A, T, and O (even though I draw into a lot of 7s with AEIST) in the scenarios where my opponent plays SCOG. Even with the worst possible draw (CW), I sitll get SC(A)WTITE #strategysaddest
14B for 2 more since IIRTT isn't doing much with an open I. Or if I'm not going to do that, even YTTRIA is better since that cleans that rack better. #strategymedium
chickened out of O3 (P)lOOKIER, which i'd seen last turn and was too titled to find O2 s(P)OOKIER #knowledgesaddest for phony #findingsaddest for O2 s(P)OOKIER
this makes the X really powerful, AXES is like a game winning play. She already really likely has an S on her rack, probably not the X but it's possible she kept it with ZA (with AX I12 I'd assume she didn't have it). NIB only allows AXES, whereas BIN allows both axis and axes. am I in a bad enough position to need to win by getting axis? if that's the case I should play BIN. If I think I can win another way I should make it less likely she gets the play, and should play NIB. I didn't consider BI(T) 6F which is pretty cool - I save HADJI for next turn and don't allow the big X possibility. Can I win if she draws the X and I don't draw the blank? I feel like after BIT the game becomes more about the blank, whereas after BIN it's more about the X and AX?S, but the blank could still allow me to bingo if she got the play. Turnover is important here cause of the value of the blank and X, so maybe I should play QUERYING - still saves BIT and HADJI plays, doesn't give anything back.
I'm inclined to not exchange here, even though it seems like a decent option optimally. I think I can outrun here, and I'd like to be able to outrun even if I don't draw the blank. I feel like QUERYING is good even though the sim hates it - I don't allow AX?S plays, I save HADJI and BIT for future turns, at which point she may have played the I or X. I think I should at least play NIB over BIN, my chance of drawing AXIS is pretty low so I should at least make it harder for her to get it. Other than that I have no idea what to do here. #strategysmall
Will blocked LAYOVERS, and with nothing to lose but spread, I decided to check whether HUNTABLE takes an S. O1 SYLVAE has the highest valuation. #knowledgelarge
This isn't bad, and I think this is fine to do over PAVIS to save scoring power. But 11H SPIV restricts Dustin's options more for the long haul and sets up my other S nicely which is not going to be easy for Dustin to block. I like that better. #findingsmall
Another big mistake. 10I WERE is much harder to underlap since WA and WI are not words. My opponent scores 7 fewer points after 10I WERE. #STRATEGYLARGE
Will: Didn't notice that OUTVAUNT plays at 14F. There's already a gigantic S hook on the board so making another one isn't quite the same problem it would normally be, and OUTVAUNT doesn't open a 9x lane for Josh. #findingsmall #strategysmall
could someone explain how GOT gives up 2 more pts on average than TOG? easier to overlap? is it just the H hook? this is so weird. TOG also results in a higher average score for me next turn so overall this sims a shocking 1.5 pts worse than TOG! #strategysmall
Whew, not a gamble worth taking - honestly thought SCAWING* was a word. Just CAWINGS. Lucky that the score was close enough that Bob didn't feel he could afford the five points. The crazy thing is that TAR bingos an amazing amount more often than TAD, which I was debating playing instead of CAD - Quackle says 33% to 19%. Quite surprising. CAD does actually sim quite well, but I gotta give this a #knowledgelarge 12:30
I overthought this a bit I think. XENIC simply is probably fine. She held this for a bit. I think considering she might not know this, and how easy it is to overlap the X and score after this, I should have just done XENIC #strategysmall
Plays on column B making EWE block all of Mike's bingos, and they even preserve column E for me to use next turn. Quackle chooses B4 POPE, followed by B6 PE; although I might have chosen PE just so Mike doesn't know my rack. E5 PIE allows AILMENT, ALIMENT, ALUMINA, AMENTIA, and VALIANT at B1. #tacticslarge
maybe I should do COUNTERS here, I think that is fine. I don't want the top left to get opened, and right now it's gonna be pretty hard to open it. I didn't 'know HOROLOGER, and I think with my huge lead I'm taking I should take COUNTERS and be more defensive. #tacticssmall
huge misplay this turn, totally missed a lot of interesting options. HUMANE opens the door to GE(D) and LE(D)E and LE(D)GE as setups. GAED N2 is also perhaps a better play. S(T)AGED is interesting as well. The key here is whether he has a blank on his rack. I think the answer is usually, since Q(I) for 31 would often come down. But with the board not great for bingoes, or a rack that isn't helped by the blank a lot, he may elecet to play Qi without another blank in hand. I remember thinking it was decently likely he didn't have another blank, but wasn't sure. I now think that he would probably keep the blank very often and play for 31, the options to outrun in an endgame are immense. A sim has GED, LEDGE, STAGED, GAED, EDGE, and GLADE I'm really not sure what's right, but I am pretty sure I would play LE(D)GE had I seen HUMANE. #visionsmall
hoping to beat him to ADAMSITE here. I didn't see another 3x3 after this. Apparently it's better to allow way more 3x3s with HOM. Crazy plan. However, EDAMAMES, ADAMANTS, ADAMANCE and ADAMANCY are all words too. #strategymedium (?)
I put an exclamation point here. I don't know if I didn't see that she had AXE for 57 (doubt I missed that) or if I felt she would miss it again or if I just wanted to go for equity despite knowledge of her rack. Weird. I feel like J5 OW is clear. #strategymedium
I was not comfortable doing N1 LOO. That said, I think I need to clean up my rack better with J9 TROLLO(P), which was missed. It also defends the bottom of the board nicely. #visionmedium
this is me attempting to play defense. ugh so ugly. 14I EAU is probably ok, at least it blocks a bingo lane, although it opens up scoring potential. ZOEA may be fine too. but OLEA is pretty much terrible, and i knew it as i was making it. #focus #strategylarge -14.5
My best sequence is 8A ESP(Y) -> 2F U(T) -> 6B ZE(N) -> 14H (R)EEL but I wasted all of my time trying to find some Z setup or an out in 2. #strategysaddest #timesaddest
I can see why I didn't want to play sim-winner ZIN at L8 or G4, but that doesn't make this the right play. It opens a lane that is basically impossible to block. Maybe RITZY 12G or ZINS 11B? (-6) #strategymedium
meant to play 14H DOME but was rushed and accidentally played this instead. saw F11 EMO, which is best, but thought the leave was gross #strategysadder
Played it safe with taking out 3x3s, but 15C (D)EGRADeS would have addressed it directly while scoring 13 more. No 3x3s were missed, but spread still matters. Also misscored as 70. #findingmedium
Not a very good endgame by me, as OUTA completely escapes me despite seeing the hook earlier. Just didnt think about it in the context of blocking both URUS spots. #endgamelarge
Didn't like C10 WIDGET now that EW is good. I thought about just C12 DIG, and in hindsight I think it's actually best - it's a huge equity hit but makes it virtually impossible for Josh to bingo either now or later as I can just close any new openings he makes in cat-and-mouse fashion. And DIG puts me up 80, which should be enough to avoid being outscored without a bingo in basically all circumstances. Quackle still likes WITING, but I'm gonna call this a #strategymedium since leaving Josh an easy way to tie the game with a 7 on column C or an 8 on row 15 seems plainly unnecessary here.
bad! by far the best play is the excellent 11J AMUCK. i have the case S, score 28 pts, and go for letters like the Z to score a lot with. i thought of AMUCKS/AMUCK on my rack, but didn't quite look hard enough. LUCK is very weak and is the type of game-losing play i make way too often. the fact that it takes a Y makes it even worse. 9J MUCK is ok if i don't think of AMUCK. -15.5 #strategylarge #findinglarge