Rd 3 Philly virtual 5-16-2021. Missed DEGAGE which is better for turnover. Maybe GEODE should have been it if I'm gonna miss DEGAGE. This just makes it easy for him to parallel. #findinglarge
MM: Quickly narrowed my options here to HABU and 2L HUB. Especially with only 1 S unseen not, I think HUB is correct and I once again got too paranoid about setting up S hooks for Noah that he might not have but I already have. HABU puts me up 28, which felt pretty safe on this board, but as will be shown was not safe at all if I have a suboptimal draw. HUB also keeps a vowel which is very important here. #strategymedium I think.
I'm down, so I guess I need to be aggressive by playing L2 ETCHInG. I didn't want to do it because there was still an F, two Ls, and an R unseen. IDK, maybe I distract my opponent with this while I hope to bingo elsewhere. big oof. #strategysmall
This is the highest scoring play, but it empties the bag, and Ruth may be able to outscore me in the endgame. Quackle suggests M12 LIB, which sets up a scoring lane on row 15 that only I can use. #tacticslarge
No floating B for BANDPASS or PASSBAND. That would have been a nice way to get my psyche up. I guess I7 ASP is fine despite the hooks it gives up. I guess Quackle wants that volatility when I'm down quite a bit already. Not to mention my spread is awful. #strategysmall
Quackle strongly favors 5E ONO, which sets up -ROWS plays at H1 while an E draw gives O8 RESOW and H10 MOWERS and an A draw gives H10 MOWRAS#. #tacticsmedium
This turn was sloppy. At a minimum, I should have seen 15F COOP, which as you all will see, simply cost me 4 points and wouldn't have changed the board much. But even then, 15F COOPT is the play. #visionsmall
Not really sure what my rationale for not playing I5 WYNS was. Wanted to hold onto my S in case I felt like trying PACOS? #strategyLARGE Gonna put a #findingsaddest here too because I can't remember if I saw this
i thought the leave after C13 XU was too clunky, but quackle thinks it's a fine play. FIXT gives up a lot more points and i shouldn't be volatilizing the board too much. still, the game is very close now so maybe having an open board isn't that bad. -4 #strategymedium
now I'm pretty much completely 50/50 about whether Noah has the X, and when I make this play, I'm closer and closer to realizing FU(G) was not an X setup. The best play here is 3I FIN(N)AN. That's a huge miss once again #findinglarge
shiiiiiit I missed FREMD. #findinglarge I was also close to exchanging here, and I think it is fine, especially cause DEFT doesn't take an S so overlaps may not leave me with much. ERST sims best, followed by EMRST then DERST then DEFT quite a bit below #tacticssmall as well for the DOUBLE FAIL!!1
I strongly considered (C)AF here, but idk. I do get bailouts wiht AAAAIIIIIIUUU which is nice, but they don't always stay open. I like what QI/QI does for me next turn w S? in hand, but idk it feels too limiting to keep the Q. Q prefers CAF here, #tacticssmall it seems it blocks some scores crom the C (QAT lets him average a couple more), and just looks about worth it given the Q bailouts.
I tunneled in on using the H column and didn't adequately consider J2 ZEN, which keeps a better leave and doesn't give back a bingo lane. Column H isn't too dangerous with the given pool. #strategysmall #zenstillshouldntbeawordlarge
Quackle assigns this the highest valuation, but M11 TOR and a few other plays have undetectably better win chances (99.99 > 99.99 apparently). I considered TOR but I did not realize that it forced bingos ending in S to play on column N instead of column M, thus giving me high-scoring responses. #tacticssmall
Wasn't exactly sure how to feel about telegraphing another S here. L3 HUTS would have really blasted the board open better and he would have a really hard time closing the board down after this. #strategymeh
I considered sim-winners OE/AEON 7K, but it seemed like Will would be able to control the board after that, whereas OXO ensured that I would have a place for my bingo if I drew one. Quackle says this gives up too much. (-7) #strategymedium
I completely misevaluated the leave of KLTX. It's actually the same or slightly worse than a bunch of leaves keeping the Q, so a bunch of 6J K plays are better than this. #tacticssaddest
2nd best play, but a distant 2nd. This is where I could have used the WORM extension INCH(WORM) for 66. I clearly did not think of the extensions that could have come into play with my placement. #visionsad
the aggressive 14K F(I)CE sims far best, but are the 10 extra points of equity worth the incredible defense I am planning to play after FE(E)ING? (yes) #strategysmall
super low on the clock already. Couldn't stomach this, or HIT B6 (or HI). Sim says J(O)T 9C is an option. I didn't consider that, but did consider J(O) to try and maximize bingo. HIT sims best, so probably best play. #strategysmall
#knowledgesmall for WINDWAy. I desperately set up a 3x3 with TAO. The sim winners are C1 ALO(W) and A3 OLEA, with the same idea. ALO(W) nearly maximizes my average score next turn, while TAO maximizes my opponent's score. #strategymedium
considered just 10B FID. the amazing K4 WIF(EH)OoD is available for MORE pts than the bingo, keeping an R. but FID still sims best. oops. got a bit too greedy/scared since matt has beaten me like 6 times in a row. -5.5 #strategymedium
Fishing is clearly correct here. I think if I wanted to force Joey to open the board for cheap, I think 6H (B)U(N) or 6H (B)U(N)D are better versions of this play. #visionsmall
i have to do something clever like 2K SIGH here. although my winning % is low, this is how to come back. the problem with my play is it just gives him an easy scoring dump. SIGH makes it tricky for him. also GRITH > BRITH. -3.5 #strategymedium
thought about 4b HAVE for spread cause i Have the case Ss, but there is still a blank out and it just opens the board more. SHAVE is more standard than this, but it also takes NNNRRRR from the pool (mainly just the R is the worry) so he hits the spot more than I do. it's pretty close in a sim, but SHAVE still does better #tacticssmall a lot of that is bingo% though, which isn't very important here
lots of options here. This seems a bit too middling and remember regretting it. G(ID) is fine even though it doesn't hit much. I should block the spot and keep decently. #strategysmall
I decided FU(G) was such a weird play that it had to be a setup an overwhelming majority of the time. I did a bunch of estimations here and determined that this was barely worth playing if his play was a setup 80% of the time. However, what I failed to analyze was that this does block the hardest-hitting X plays, but gives back easy -AX plays in return which score around 40 points, so I'm not actually reducing Noah's average score by nearly as much as I thought I was. My other thought here was YO(K). I thought his range was specific enough now that the 14K spot would be mine a lot and that I could draw YO(K)ES or even something better a lot of the time. On paper I average well after BUR(F)I(s), but not nearly enough. There are plays that average more immediately as well, such as the bingo-seeking plays of M7 BUY and BUOY. BUR(F)I(s) should edge those out pretty convincingly in the turns after next, though. Even when I specify OUX as a partial rack leave, BUR(F)I(s) performs remarkably worse than YO(K). And unfortunately, just like Noah, I missed a cool disconnected play that solves most of my problems and keeps the game much closer. 13G (F)U(s)IB(L)Y is the way to go here. It blocks any setup potential better than any other candidate play and scores well. It does block the 14J spot which I still thought was a good asset, but that's OK. I've already tried to draw into a big play there and failed, no need to put all my eggs in one basket with the score so close. A ton of time and thought went into this play, and it's a glaring error. Tunnel visioning into not seeing that this didn't rid the board of big X plays like I wanted it to, as well as setting myself up for only one good outcome. #strategylarge #findinglarge
Sim says 2F VE(R)TUE, I guess, but I'm not sure I could ever play that in this position. Anyway, there's probably something better than this. #strategysad
I suppose COLT isn't bad since there's not much to score in this position. CT? is actually not that bad leave after O4 TOT(HE)R, which I didn't spot, despite the open Gs as floaters even though 7s I play would open up good counterplay for Eric. I think either TOTHER or 7H TORC look slightly stronger. #findingsmall
shiiiiiit I missed FREMD. #findinglarge I was also close to exchanging here, and I think it is fine, especially cause DEFT doesn't take an S so overlaps may not leave me with much. ERST sims best, followed by EMRST then DERST then DEFT quite a bit below #tacticssmall as well for the DOUBLE FAIL!!1
This bingos the most, but gives back too many points on row 13. 6L FEH is best even though it doesn't bingo as much because it sets up my S. #strategysad
i didn't know MEISHI# (or HOTELINGS#) or SHIAI#. i would think i would have seen the latter in a high playability list of some sort. SHAME is obviously quite weaker, but at least it scores a lot. -10.5 #knowledgelarge
Found the bingo BEELINE, but unfortunately I did not know it took a D hook. If I'm not gonna realize there's a playable bingo, EEILN is OK to keep on this board for the open D and G, so I think (ADO)BE would have been better than this. #knowledgemedium
Q suggests TEW E9. I much prefer WINE I5 to this but at this point I'm simply fighting off a mental breakdown of thinking that I'm the worst scrabble player in the world #findingsad
PITOT 10J is better, once again because F2 (A: 10J?) is such a big spot. Also better is TIPTOED 13C, breaking up the unpalatable DS combo. (-3.5) #visionmedium