I thought SCRIB was a word #knowledgesaddest so this doesn't leave a bingo line that I need to win. Something like 3K (C)L(E)W seems good here. #strategysaddest
14B HIREE is best here according to sim. I just didn't want to give eric free points for overlaps, especially with such a dead board. I think I correctly deduced that playing QI (for equity) is wrong because it murders the board and leaves me in a 30-point hole that will be impossible to climb out of. #tacticssad
put some thought into D4 BARITE to clamp down on the position but I'm not up by enough. Didn't see B(A)KER for 2 more, and it's compounded by there being a ton of unseen E's, making AIT a better leave than EIT here. Thought there was a small chance of a challenge here, but not enough. #findingsmall
This sims way, way back: I didn't see EH 10A. No one mentioned this in either the commentary or the chat, which vindicates me slightly. SHH must be difficult to spot for everyone. (-12) #visionlarge
Wow. I had severe tunnel vision on this first move. I only saw X(U) which was very defensive and draw into some stuff like OTOLOGIC and ZOOLOGIC or something else if more stuff is opened. The other thing I considered was IGLOO 9J to try and set my X up. I totally failed to consider another X setup play, COL(U)GO I5. It's a less worrisome version of IGLOO, giving around 2 points fewer back on average, fewer bingos, and giving me a little bit more. IGLOO is more defensive down the line, which is good if things fall into place, but not good when they don't. I also totally missed OXIC 7J, which is standard. I would consider this a mistake over COL(U)GO for sure, even though IGLOO appears to benefit me over time. FWIW X(U) sims similarly well to the X-setup options, and it also seems to complicate the game the most. With so few moves available in the position, I find it most outrageous that I failed to see other candidates, and am more concerned about that than anything else. #findingsmall #tacticssmall
once again missed a far superior play that I saw after hitting my clock. I feel like a lot of my errors on the last day and a half like this are really focus errors, but still stuff like HARM should pop out quickly in an ideal world. HARM is also a setup for the S next turn, valuation motherfucking 88!!! HARM is probably the best play in history #visionlarge
now worried about ABASIC* smh, the star play is 7G P(R)EED(I)T for 42(!). This hits PRIED 13I with an R, thought it might be worth going for. #knowledgelarge #findinglarge
So excited by the possibility of opening with CWM here, but COWY is still very defensive and doesn't leave absolute dreck. It's not stylistic, it's just wrong #tacticssadder
I did see POTTERED on Column I until Richard blocked it. But H1 DEPORTER scores enough to make it worth blowing up the rack as opposed to this bingo-friendly leave. #findinglarge
this is likely wrong. a good player like Joey would be setting up a heavy tile to hit the spot at 10F after my inevitable bingo. i should dump the R there. I considered it but thought he might just be keeping low tiles himself and trying to race me to the bingo, and then OR would be easy for him to bingo to since it has so many hooks, etc. hard choice. i also considered abort for a while. -1.5 #strategysmall
Didn't know fricking EWERS. Feels like SADDEST but since it's only 5 points. #knowledgesad and also 1K VEG(A)S. I was completely out of time. #timeSADDEST
Better to fish here, but the Q is in the bag 1/3. 2/3 times I draw a bingo 4/8 times, so there's around a 1/3 shot at CALIBRE, BRAILLE or whatever with the blank. I guess it's worth it considering the likelihood I get Q-stuck after this play. #strategylarge
errrr QI is straightforward here. i thought it just destroyed the board though, but BILGED probably does a better job of that! probably a hard move, but it feels so tough to play QI and then not have anywhere to play my bingo next turn. at least BILGED gives me a chance at a dump like QIS for 41, etc. -4 #strategymedium ?
I missed H1 KEIRETS(U) and 6F TEARIES(T), so this is actually a big mistake, since it loses to 6F TEARIES(T). I always lose to H1 KEIRETS(U) so I either have to block or outrun everything else, so the winningest play is 13I Q(I)N. #endgamesaddest
It seems that I undervalued EINT on this particular board after doing JEON. I can easily parallel the EON with my leave, so 2 extra points isn't worth it here. #strategysmall
this seemed like the right theme to go with, but XYS(T)S (I only considered XYST I think) is just too powerful I think. GNS is a whole lot better than GNSS even taking defense into account. I should want to get rid of these consos a bit more. #findingsmall
14M KIT sims best, but I was worried about O7 bingos ending in IEST or EST. What I didn't see during the game is that I can also definitely lose to plays like N4 BONACIS, 6H VIB(R)ANCE, and 6G COVE(R)ING, so 14M KIT is probably best. #strategysaddest
just weighing different leaves and scores against each other. REF and TREF score quite a bit fewer, but definitely keep better leaves. maybe i misevaluated a little because REF sims best. -2 #tacticssmall
Truly hated giving up both esses, but felt I needed the space in the upper left quadrant...I could've done O1 ASSURE for 52, hoping for an X bomb underneath JOEY to follow up, or just fish my X there and try to hit ASSURE bingos for a zillion. Both seem like better ideas than XERUSES. C8 EXTRAS also scores well and keeps an S for OILS. #strategymedium
Through seven endgame plies, I1 REPrIVE(S)# is best of the 66-point bingos, rEPRIVE(S)# is second, and dEPRIVE(S) is third. I wasn't sure of REPRIVES#. #knowledgesmall
I thought that the leave for 8G VAX was too vowel heavy and guaranteeing and X spot would be worth it. But this caps my score next turn at around 30-something and bings a lot less, and is also less defensive. It probably isn't that different but in hindsight 8G VAX seems a bit better. #strategysmall
This time, I came up with a good short-term blocking play. But the issue is bigger than last turn: I didn't see 15F OR(D)NANCE. Big whiff. #findinglarge
9F MAXI is a _perfect_ move here, especially after he took so long on DUCKS (it was several minutes, which strongly implied to me he kept a blank; it seems like an easier play to make if he's holding another S). -4 #strategymedium
Quackle burns the S for an extra 5 points with STELAI. I'm not sure why that is. Another superior play is OILCLOTH 8A, which I never would have seen. I'd find it as a bingo every time, but not as an extension. (-2% win chances, -10 valuation) #strategysmall, #visionlarge
This was an echo of the MUL(ATT)O/MO(G)UL position against Kevin Fraley at California Open 2018. JEW 4J is way better because FIDS M1 is unblockable. And I even saw it too! But I worried that I had mistracked and thought that Josh might play out and win if I was wrong. After JEW I'd be up 41 points but he'd get 16 from me, and his tiles look like they could score 25 points if there's a spot for them. With more time, I would have retracked the game to be dead certain that Josh can't play out, because that being the case, JEW/FIDS is best by a large margin. (-29) #endgamelarge #trackinglarge #timemanagementmedium
J13 BUR is probably fine, i just have to be great at iterating through the bingos to make sure i'm not missing anything. i saw lysines/linseys so i definitely have to block. -6 #knowledgemedium
15D CURV(Y) setting up my S is such a great play. He might not even think I have an S after that play too! Looks like a missed opportunity. #visionlarge
4A QUARE(R) is a #visionSADDEST. I saw 4C QUA(R)ER but I was in such a defensive mindset I didn't think to hang anything in the triple line, especially after two 1 tile plays. I decided to put the S on this so she can't hook it and is forced to find eights.
bingoing here is wrong, at least i got that part right. paesanos never wins. i didn't have too much time left, but i figured that the spot at L4 was potentially worth a lot of points, and any bingo i made would be negated by that spot. so i should try to fish and go there, right? i saw ANOA but it empties the bag and i did not estimate my chances of having an out in two spots very highly (it seems to be higher than i thought). i didn't see L4 EON, and i might not have liked it for its AAS? leave. turns out EILO was in the bag so i win many games with a lot of those draws. i should have reasoned it out better. if i leave one in the bag, he can just score a lot and my bingo out won't be enough. why did i get it correct that i needed to pass up a bingo, but then not finish the thought? massive strategic mistake to end this game. -40% win chance roughly #strategylarge
I saw but chickened out of F7 MO(C)HI. That's the move I need at this score to fork the board better and make an aggressive S setup. And yes, MOCHI does sim ahead of both my play and 10B HOM. #knowledgesmall
COR(R)IDAS still plays after this but this is the best I can do to block bingos. However, if he has the X I could possibly still lose, if he plays (M)AXI and threatens 5-letter words to go out or plays a 5 and gets AXI as his last rack, for example. So it might be better to play I(M)INE down low or something
#tacticssmall
I should probably get rid of my I. A8 FOIN sims best, which is crazy but just might work. But all the 4-tile plays on the A column are better than this aparently. #strategysmall
N10 BEG sims best against a random rack, but after 9K S(O) and the available pool, it seems extremely likely that he has another S. It seemed like the game would be over if I play N10 BEG and he bingos on the O column or even just plays there with his S and I'm holding the Q. I thought my best shot was to to throw the Q back (holding consonants because I thought the bag seemed slightly vowel heavy) and hope he draws it after his N column bingo and I respond with an 1H bingo or column O bingo. However, even simming against the best possible racks, N10 BEG is winning every time. It's probably partly because he is unlikely to be holding a U, which gives me a good chance of drawing a U after N10 BEG. But even with AENQU??, I'm not sure how I can ever win after a column O play. #strategysaddest
I was trying to block bingos on the A column making SCAB with a blank S, but the sim is noooot interested in that at all. I guess bingos on row 14 are a lot more likely and my plays score more there anyway? I kinda don't mind 6B HUM(O)R because it scores well and kinda obstructs the A column but 14H HUM sims best. This one might just have to go down in the books as a #strategysaddest