I was under time pressure and just played equity. I got very lucky that this blocked 11D (BE)WEARIED which I completely missed. 12K VLOG(S) is best. #timesaddest
Sigh, I spelled out GREWING on my rack and stared at it for 30 seconds before deciding against it. I should've been more deliberate to really think it over, but I'm trying really hard to go faster these days and in general I find it's helping me a lot. The pathway I could've taken to realizing GREWING is good is that I think my intuition is that there's something in DEEGRW, but that DEEGRW + S = SWEDGER, so whatever's in DEEGRW has to not be WEDGER, and is thus probably GREWED, thus making GREWING likelier to be good. #knowledgelarge
#knowledgesad for challenge and #tacticssad because Exch. DNQVW is slightly better, though I figured that with 3 Ts out and no Ns, RT wouldn't be as good
K5 JAY. I totally missed that spot. Also B10 CA(R)NY sets up a huge X spot which I guess is okay since I'm down a lot but I didn't even notice it. #VISIONSADDEST
Hmm. Odd miss of PERCOIDS, I absolutely did not even look through the C at all once I saw this. One benefit of PRODIGIES is that if Tim had a higher scoring tile he probably would have tried to play it last turn, so I'm a favorite to hit the H column hard. #visionsmall
10K CURS is best, blocking row 10 bingos and (JEEL)Y# with two Y's unseen while keeping the G again. Close behind is C3 UNCL(IN)G#, which I saw but was unsure of; I didn't know UNCLE is a verb. #tacticssmall
now i'm treading water but should still be strongly favored to win if i make the right play here. 6I NEWIE is fine, score 11 more and keep a more balanced leave at least! argh! -10 #strategylarge
EUV just sucks way too much as a leave; AURA cannot be right. AHURU looks decent, but i am liking 6L UVA here. there's only one E and S left and i don't have much other hope. i also sorta like M6 VAU, but less. this is very difficult. -9 #strategylarge
Saw ClAQUER for 125 hooking CANON before he played. Tilted after, and missed the A4 QUARE for 87 leaving C? and the clearly best A2 ACQUiRE for 146. #findingsaddest
fishing is less often right in collins. i probably missed ZE and THIEF, although i did think of ZE in other turns. HOMY is probably ok too. -6 #findingmedium
I think I briefly thought the E in BIVALENT was an I (lmao) and didn't play L12 WAUR. Seems pretty lost regardless, not sure what I'm supposed to do. I thought If I drew XZ and some vowels I might have a chance. #strategysaddest
So, yes, I have the blank and im closer to a bingo and it's better to set myself up with 15H AJI and i DID think about it and i did put AJI on the board but then i switched it to JAI at the last second because i was afraid #strategysad
Scored as 78. This is the only bingo, but I did not consider playing at 15H after BENT came down; RABIETIc and BIRRETtA are available. #visionmedium #scoring
I should have fished off something and hoped he had all consonants, but I just gave up and took the spread. There's probably something that has a chance of winning but I didn't see anything. #strategysaddest
I thought that the leave for 8G VAX was too vowel heavy and guaranteeing and X spot would be worth it. But this caps my score next turn at around 30-something and bings a lot less, and is also less defensive. It probably isn't that different but in hindsight 8G VAX seems a bit better. #strategysmall
I was trying to decide between 8A GUY and 15D AUGITE. I figured if I kept the Y, I might be able to cash it at 15L after his bingo, but 8A TUYE(R) looks better. #knowledgemedium
JD: Wow INCH(WORM). Why are there so many WORM extensions?
SK: 2nd best play, but a distant 2nd. This is where I could have used the WORM extension INCH(WORM) for 66. I clearly did not think of the extensions that could have come into play with my placement. #visionsad
Wow, I completely overestimated how bad CDQTW because 8A RE(SHAVED) is just much better here. I figured I could always just hit it next turn since I didn't think it would get blocked or taken. #tacticssaddest
Wolfram remarked that he should have just kept the T after losing the challenge (or something to that affect) which is why I favored this over N1 AROID, but A10 (A)DAGIO is probably just better. #visionsadder
Although FIQUE gets me 12% more bingos than QUITE, it only results in an average score of one more point per turn for me on my next move. Odd. #tacticssmall
I'm not sure how much the sim is worth here, but it suggests 2E EAV(I)NG, which is probably best since front hooking it with the blank isn't that likely. Also, 2G J(I)VES sims much better than this, lol. #strategysaddst
And here I am. Again. For the third fucking time, shitting my pants trying to block shit when I should be playing equity. This is total ASS and I chickened out of L2 COBIAS. #STRATEGYSADDEST #KNOWLEDGESADDEST
D1 hORSIES. I didn't consider putting a letter in the triple would be better. Also, despite being about 8 fewer points than all the other bingos, J4 vIROSES sims second best just barely behind D1 hORSIES. #strategysad
Although I'm in a great position after HAMATE (his bingoes will empty the bag, leaving me up a tempo in a close endgame, meaning a very likely win), I should still do AHEM N11 - I really loved what that did, but I was only 90% sure that AHEM didn't take an S, and if it takes an S that could be a game-losing mistake. I felt like the chance that AHEM took an S was higher than the chance that HAMATE would lose me the game when AHEM would win me the game. Either way this is just an estimation and a clear word knowledge error. #knowledgemedium
jeez, sigh, totally missed the anagram of OPES -- PESO. even 6H OP is pretty decent. OPES is just like "here be my guest and score some points / bingo". -7 #knowledgemedium
well now i'm worried so it's ok to sacrifice some equity to block here. 3K OBOE just seems way too aggressive right? i guess OTIC keeps way too terrible of a leave, and he could still bingo through the B or something. M3 OE might be ok. idk. -12.5 #strategylarge
No clue why not I11 YID instead for 11 more points; as I said last turn but clearly forgot here, no point grooming rack leave on this board. Also no idea why I spent five minutes to come up with this. #findingmedium #timesmall 2:51
This is when S(PORTERs) becomes relevant. I was not a fan of it at the start of the game, but I forgot about it when things started frowning upon me in this middlegame. It is absolutely relevant here and keeping my S is very important. #knowledgemedium
7I HIRCINe and I chickened out of I4 CHIR(M)INg because why would that be a word? #KNOWLEDGESADDEST
Spoiler: I maintain that spending like 100 minutes on this move is what cost me the game (along with all of my following mistakes). Stay tuned for primo facepalm opportunities.
#knowledgesad for the desperate challenge. This turn is notable because there are 14 plays that are all tied for best at a valuation of 13 points (this is one of them).
O12 U(P) and 4K U(T) win the sim, giving me a 6% chance of winning while everything else is less than 5%. I think the sim assumes Rasheed will sometimes play on row 2 making H(EW), after which I can play a bingo making W(HEW) and scoring 109 or more if I draw any of ?AFHLR. Never in my WILDEST dreams would Rasheed do that. F13 (G)U# is another option, setting up a lane on row 15 that Rasheed will surely block. WUD has the best equity. #tacticsmedium I guess
14J ROOST is a much better play; it does not give back O4 DONEE/RAKEE, and it blocks L12 DANK/DARK, while guaranteeing an out with whatever I draw. #visionlarge (-16)
Damn, I could have played a whole ass valid word and wont the game. Even 6B V(u)LN at 14 or 5B T(R)ONS at 10 lets me go out in two. I didn't even need to bingo. #STRATEGYSADDEST and also #knowledgesaddest for the phony
lucky pull from AEEIT. I misevaluated this position, I thought he would bingo a lot more after TEATIMES than MEATIEST, but it's only a tiny bit more, and he scores over 2.5 more on average after MEATIES, presumably cause of C and E column overlaps, which are also bingo lanes that balance out the TEA 8s lanes, making MEATIEST only barely more bingo defensive. I am more focused on bingo defense here, but it's such a tiny difference in bingo% I should just play TEATIMES. #tacticssmall
C: ugh RET? out of that poolllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
A: Apparently 15A ThEATER is best. #strategysmall although Quackle is bad at pre-endgames
super low on the clock already. Couldn't stomach this, or HIT B6 (or HI). Sim says J(O)T 9C is an option. I didn't consider that, but did consider J(O) to try and maximize bingo. HIT sims best, so probably best play. #strategysmall
Plays on column B making EWE block all of Mike's bingos, and they even preserve column E for me to use next turn. Quackle chooses B4 POPE, followed by B6 PE; although I might have chosen PE just so Mike doesn't know my rack. E5 PIE allows AILMENT, ALIMENT, ALUMINA, AMENTIA, and VALIANT at B1. #tacticslarge
i strongly considered C2 BRO, which sims best, but i feel like i should stop screwing around. i'm holding on to a bit of a tenuous lead, both blanks and X are unseen, etc. it seemed good to kill a few lanes here and score and stuff. #strategysmall ?
i got so afraid that he would have some 3-3 through IT that i decided to block it, instead of just play AA, keeping EINRS for the triple-triple (or a likely bingo) myself! i really psych myself out a ton when playing top players. -10 #strategylarge
well he blocked my much better spot for INK. i don't know why i didn't play AKIN at 11K though; that blocks up pretty much everything and seals the game. I think i was worried about an UN- bingo but that's unlikely with the pool. i feel like a lot of these mistakes are just purposeful choices and i'm not weighing the probabilities properly. there is probably something i can infer from LA. -10 #strategylarge
this was the ugliest play I've made in a long time. A better version of this would be VUG(H) to the H, which, again, I never saw. 3 misses in a row #findingsmall
saw VISNOMIE but not FISNOMIE #knowledgesaddest i needed to fish off an I, not blow through the rack but was worried about falling behind #strategysaddest
In addition to having higher equity than FINNED, 7M FIN allows fewer immediate bingos, more effectively blocking those making GAITT# which I didn't see. #visionmedium I guess
Bad mistake! I was only 80% sure N10 MUTTS was spelled like that and I thought this was okay, but literally anything holding Z and leaving 8L open is better. #knowledgesaddest #strategysaddest
I thought SCRIB was a word #knowledgesaddest so this doesn't leave a bingo line that I need to win. Something like 3K (C)L(E)W seems good here. #strategysaddest
YUM 7A #findingSAD #strategySADDER. Instead I opened up another possible triple triple (SUNSHADE was there already, and now ENDASHES), just really wanted to get rid of those Us