C13 AWN 10 points is way too many to give up. I saw AWE and discounted it because it's still possible to trip-trip through the E, but the N in that spot is a lot more defensive (opponent's avg score goes up by 7 compared to AWN). My play doesn't stop WR bingos #findingsadder #tacticssad
I convinced myself that SLIDS* was a word; I had misremembered SLIDDERS#. David held for a long time and even remembered LIDS having no hooks, but he gave me too much credit for knowing words. I think I win 100% even if AVISO comes off; every valid play either wins or loses to a bingo. #knowledgelarge
This is one of five plays that win 100% because they block N5 VENDEES--a word I had forgotten about. Quackle likes L8 WO because it doesn't empty the bag. This is the pre-endgame, though, and I don't trust Quackle here. I like 10J WAUR, unloading a U with one unseen. #strategymedium
calculated GUY being a bit better, but for some reason got worried I was allowing something bad, but even the worst possible thing still loses by 1 for him. -1 #endgamesmall
When will I learn that I should never keep two I's? AHI has the best equity, but 12C TAHINI is best overall; having two I's greatly hinders my potential for a 2*2 on column K. #tacticssmall
of course, sometimes i just make bad plays. i didn't want to play FUG because it's much easier to end some random bingo in an S, but aren't there more words that start with S? also CGU? is not as good as CTT?. also FUGU through the U takes an E, etc etc. still, a lot of the time i am aware i am not making the equity play, but it very rarely seems to be right, and i should just play more like macondo/quackle unless i have a _really_ good justification... but then again -- look at the position. does it really make sense to just play FUG there, giving him a free bingo lane when up by a lot? i always struggle with moves like this and take half-measures. #strategylarge
3B PAEAN is worth thinking about, and so is B5 PA. PATH keeps a pretty bad leave and opens the board right after he fished. bad idea. -4 #strategymedium
I was so close to just doing M11 KYU instead of YUK to be safe. Yes, there is huge Z-bomb upside to YUK, but Vince has one of the *fifteen* unseen Es and Os so, so often to play there himself, and it's instantly by far the best scoring spot on the board. However, I need to add that Vince put down QUID, then looked at it in frustration and picked it up to play QUIN - I kind of read this as an admission that he didn't have an E himself on that turn, which does tip the odds a fair bit in my favor. I probably should still have played it safe here. #strategymedium
If Andrew doesn't block along the F or E file, C7 GAM is best by far. BEGO is still there at 7B but I have to end in an E. But I think he blocks too often and I just lose. Here, I thought he can't block both bingo spots on column F and row 2. Seemed like my best shot. However, he can just play with GAME on the 6th row to block everything. So I'm kind of boned regardless. So maybe it's back to C7 GAM, since that might outrun some blocks? Maybe I just have to make a desperado play opening up row 15 such as (S)AG and go for CAMEOED or CAROMED. That also threatens DORMICE, but Andrew can probably block both lines and still win. Toughens things tho. #tacticslarge
14A TAPER was my first thought. G11 R(I)P sims second best, and I never thought of it. I decided there's no need to open the bottom, but I think RIP is probably correct, it sims 5 points higher. I bingo much more. #findingsmall
6A YARDeRS #knowledgesaddest #visionsaddest. This ends up being a 12-point dynamic equity mistake. I saw the word but wasn't sure of it. I might have tried it but didn't even see the spot. My play is second best tho
14B HIREE is best here according to sim. I just didn't want to give eric free points for overlaps, especially with such a dead board. I think I correctly deduced that playing QI (for equity) is wrong because it murders the board and leaves me in a 30-point hole that will be impossible to climb out of. #tacticssad
So I blew the endgame here. I knew what the 8 unseen tiles were and I knew there were two places on the board for bingos: the D column and under PRAISE on row 2. All I needed to do was calculate what bingo my opponent could play through the N on column D and then block the bingo lane under PRAISE. Even if I didn't see FAAN (which I didn't #knowledgesaddest) to play O1 CLUNG or O1 CLUNK etc., I still could have done N2 GLANS. BIG oof
I could not remember if AMPLER was good, so I settled on this instead of 13B FORGED. FORGED would have also weakend the SCUP hook Glenn most likely set up. #knowledgesmall
I had well under a minute here and the fastest math I could do indicated that this move would win without needing to risk CASTLINGS (I scored it right but added it wrong) - it turned out that it actually tied instead. Then I insisted on recounting the game, even after Bradley offered me a tie, and discovered multiple plays I had overscored, and ended up losing by 3. Tough loss, but I've had worse. #endgamelarge
once again being safe, though I missed SPElEAN in the same spot which I would be sure of as opposed to SPEANEd, which I was not, given I always confused SNEAPED SPEANED with SNEAKED SKEANED*. #knowledgemedium #findingmedium
I suppose he could have S(E)RAGLIO, the only playable 7 on row 14, and nothing else. I should therefore play deP(L)ANES A2 or fish with E(ME).
My issues evaluating V-containing leaves continue. FAVES is the better option; it scores 4 more than BARFS and bingos approximately 1% more without yielding any higher opp. avg. score. #tacticssmall
9H (ZA)G actually sims best here. Really cool fish. I was unsure of THANGS and would rather have played THANGS or (T)HANG over this. #strategylarge #knowledgesaddest
ahhh CONVENTED! #visionlarge I also kinda regretted playing FUN, it lets him overlap sometimes when he has MNX tiles. The sim is kinda weird cause it has him opening a lot after FUN, but realistically I think I should play (E)NUF to be more defensive. CO(N)N is super defensive but also blows up my rack. #tacticssmall for ENUF.
Quackle hates this and likes 7C HUE; FLRT is a bad leave, but ELU is worse, and HUE scores one more point. There are also many plays better than FRITH that sacrifice points but keep better leaves, such as 9B UH and 7B FLU. #strategymedium
I did not know H10 P(E)PITA, and that is 21 more points. Definitely worth keeping a worse leave here since PUP makes the board more S-dependent if I don't have a hook to LAW up top. Also, A12 (Y)AUP is better if I don't know PEPITA. #findingmedium
I think it's fine to get the F off my rack since the F doesn't mesh well with the K or the M. It's very close with doing M12 FAX in equity and the sim. I am shocked to see that I actually bingo 24% after FAX vs only 7% after FUNK. That ought to sway me in the direction of playing FAX simply because I want to bingo asap when I have the blank. While I was hoping to pick an I for 14F XI, I definitely underestimated how good KMN? actually is for bingoing given the open S available. #strategymedium
Will: Didn't notice that OUTVAUNT plays at 14F. There's already a gigantic S hook on the board so making another one isn't quite the same problem it would normally be, and OUTVAUNT doesn't open a 9x lane for Josh. #findingsmall #strategysmall
I don't know Rick's game very well at this time since the last time I played him was November 2019 in Philadelphia when I won Division 1 for the first time ever. Accordingly, I wanted something that parallelled more letters in IOLITE, so I passed up F8 EDIfIeD. I did not know H1 mEDIcID(E), but I should have seen H1 rEDIvID(E) as there's only 2 bingoes that play at H1. #findingmedium
I didn't consider I5 TUG, which looks really solid. Although I am favoured on a board with more options cause of my powerful leave, TUG I5 totallly obliterates the board, to the point where I just get too much out of it immediately to forgo. #findingsmall
7A ANTIENT I have never been able to successfully anagram this word in my Zyzzyva before and I wasn't about to start doing it over the board now lmao #knowledgesaddest
i chickened out on baneful (thought maybe i was confusing it with baleful) but didn't think it was a huge mistake. but it sorta is. -12 #knowledgelarge (also, it's risky after his last couple plays).
Didn't know fricking EWERS. Feels like SADDEST but since it's only 5 points. #knowledgesad and also 1K VEG(A)S. I was completely out of time. #timeSADDEST
i spent a very long time on this move before finally deciding to give up and try to cut spread. 14I OY is the obvious equity play here, and much of the time it's just met with another big comeback. i was up around 1000 spread and 3 games on the rest of the field, so the only way to lose the tournament is to lose 3 games by a combined 500 spread points. now that it looks like i'm going to get blown out here, i wanted to try to stem the bleeding and keep scoring tiles. #strategysmall
Knock knock. Who's there? Definitely not Nits. Maybe one of the shades from Book VI of the Aeneid. #knowledgesaddest for phony and #knowledgesad for challenge
5B W(O)KS keeping a strong leave is a good concept here. That sims best by several points over E1 D(I)RKS and D(I)KES, which I didn't consider either. S(C)REW is also behind by a few points. #findingsmall
Both B12 NU(L)L and 1H (B)UNNY are better at scoring more total points over this turn and the next which is what I need to outrun bingos. #strategysadder
Apparently I'm supposed to play on row 4 according to a sim and CP. I guess he bingos there a lot and I have to block or it gives me a better chance to draw a blank. In hindsight I think I agree. This play is bad. #strategylarge