The other options are terrible so this block isn't actually that bad. Sim is saying G13 (P)IU is the only other viable option, but I didn't want to give back big 15F Q plays. Those probably aren't a concern though since I'm ahead by enough to only have to worry about bingos. #strategysmall
I was panicked at this point because I thought he might be close to a bingo which would be game over. This put me deep in the tank and I tunneled on row 13 plays and column J plays. 12J GU(C)K is just clearly best and it's not even close. I need to calm down and just play the equity here. #strategysaddest
The G is so bad that A8 KNUR is barely worth it for 7 more. 14L YUK is worth it though because of the open I in INFIX which suits leaving GNST nicely. #visionlarge
F10 (Q)UOTA seems like a good idea here. I didn't like (Q)UAI despite it being more proactive than U(N)AI, since it could help Kevin a decent amount potentially. QUOTA is best by a lot #findingmedium
and he blocked epitasis.. i always hate moves that keep too outrageous of a vowel-consonant ratio, but i suppose IPSST > AISST? since it likes E11 AI more. -1.5 #tacticssmall
this was the ugliest play I've made in a long time. A better version of this would be VUG(H) to the H, which, again, I never saw. 3 misses in a row #findingsmall
13K PILCH# is better, saving at least 1A AY and reducing Jack's scoring potential, even though I can't always go out next move. HIPLY often allows plays like O11 PH(Y)LA or PH(Y)LE. #endgamesmall
14E R(A)ND is the kind of play that I have a really hard time seeing. It sims best, but I'm not sure what is actually best since I assume a human would play very differently from Quackle. On the other hand, the EDS/EDH hook is difficult to block without the hooks. I dunno. #strategysadder
maybe TITHE keeping the R hook for next turn? quackle likes 12A TITLE, which seems counterintuitive to me, but i think i need to keep scoring spots open for myself too. -2.5 #strategysmall
of course I miss OPERETTA again. I liked that it was difficult to score using the B column after this and open another lane, but that lane will be easier for me to score on and outrun N column stuff, whereas after this a play like RAN(D) 4B might actually be a problem. Not sure. #findingsmall
Tough call here, I tried to Nigel this out and figure out as many permutations as I could here to see which bingo would yield the lowest chance of counter-bingo, or whether maybe I should just fish off an N or the D; as it turns out all three bingos yield exactly the same bingo% of 71%, but INTENDS does in fact yield the lowest average scores. It does look like I work out a little better here by fishing off the D, which hits everything except the M. #strategysmall
I strongly considered (C)AF here, but idk. I do get bailouts wiht AAAAIIIIIIUUU which is nice, but they don't always stay open. I like what QI/QI does for me next turn w S? in hand, but idk it feels too limiting to keep the Q. Q prefers CAF here, #tacticssmall it seems it blocks some scores crom the C (QAT lets him average a couple more), and just looks about worth it given the Q bailouts.
My best sequence is 8A ESP(Y) -> 2F U(T) -> 6B ZE(N) -> 14H (R)EEL but I wasted all of my time trying to find some Z setup or an out in 2. #strategysaddest #timesaddest
Didn't think NUBBER was good, and eschewed NABBER because of the leave and opening more lanes (remember I'm effectively winning here since Karl needs to beat me by 43). HUE is probably fine over NABBER, but NUBBER is certainly worth it. #knowledgemedium
I think I chose this over the other 4A bingos because it formed EEW--yes, for that reason alone. But I missed C3 pLEBEIAN, which scores the same and doesn't open a TWS-TWS lane. #findingsmall
decided this was worth a shot, even over (OX)IDIZE, since it was an amazing Q setup, and I just win if he lets it go basically. He challenged not based on knowing OXAZINE, OXAZOLE or OXAZEPAM, but on just not liking this. Ugh. #knowledgelarge
I didn't like 11I MOW because it didn't give me an S hook, but I still bingo so much more since 8s are a thing. I could just do DOW if that bothers me so much. #tacticssmall
I did see AY/AYE/TYE at N5, but CAGEY seemed better. Quackle says this is a serious mistake, because I'm destroying my rack for a block that isn't effective; he still has Row 1. (-19 valuation, -5% win%) #strategylarge
I can see why I didn't want to play sim-winner ZIN at L8 or G4, but that doesn't make this the right play. It opens a lane that is basically impossible to block. Maybe RITZY 12G or ZINS 11B? (-6) #strategymedium
I was trying to block row 1 bings, but with both blanks unseen I think I just have to try to go for my own bingo. 13E SITCOM and 14B (TE)LOMIC both look good here to dig for a blank. It's likely he has one, but I think turnover could be important here with so few tiles left to dig for the other. #strategylarge
This was an echo of the MUL(ATT)O/MO(G)UL position against Kevin Fraley at California Open 2018. JEW 4J is way better because FIDS M1 is unblockable. And I even saw it too! But I worried that I had mistracked and thought that Josh might play out and win if I was wrong. After JEW I'd be up 41 points but he'd get 16 from me, and his tiles look like they could score 25 points if there's a spot for them. With more time, I would have retracked the game to be dead certain that Josh can't play out, because that being the case, JEW/FIDS is best by a large margin. (-29) #endgamelarge #trackinglarge #timemanagementmedium
11H TALONEd missed mate in one #findingsaddest. I thought I had to not empty because of how strong the bag was and definitely not open the triple so I passed up the weaker bings.
3B RA(V) setting up J*GGLE* bingos sims way better than anything else. He might blockwith plays on 2A more than the sim does, but I think it's probably still best. #strategysaddest
Yet another example of Quackle being bad at pre-endgames: it says three plays win 100%, namely this, 1L FAGS, and M11 ZIG; and FAGS has by far the highest valuation. Upon further investigation, FAGS loses when I draw an I (3/8) and Carl plays 14L LEIs setting up 13J ODIC(!), which I cannot block without being Z-stuck. ZIG and ZAGS win 100%, and ZIG is slightly better, threatening plays at 1L-1O and 5B-5E. #tacticssmall (-0.5)
Apparently Exch. ILNNRV isn't bad given the pool but also, realistically, where am i gonna bingo that isn't from the N on the O column? I guess i could hope to draw a bingo from the A of FOEdARIE or one that underlaps TEA, making WEXES/WEXED? #strategysaddest Also this play was miscounted as 17
I had the right idea by keeping my D here for OPED. The only issue was not seeing this at 12L (although Mark could make a play at O8 and block my OPED hook if he didn't draw one himself after his exchange). Either way, L8 (C)OU(R)A(N)TE is the standout play. Not easy to play through 3 disconnected tiles like that. #visionlarge
I think I would have been rather insane to fish off the M with 6G M(EW) even though Ed is more unlikely to block a 3x3 when there's only 1 tile that fits in the 4th position in this case. Despite giving back potential D1-D4 or D1-D4 plays, C2 SMARTED still comes out on top in the sim. It's slightly worth it for 3 more now even if Ed seemed to be fishing his last 2 turns. #strategysmall
I thought I need to make some desperate fish here but my best shot is to just try and outrun with plays making BIRLS. I really just needed more time to figure it out. #timesaddest #strategysaddest
Pretty interesting sim result here. Quackle's favorite play here is F7 FROG, followed by 2J HOG, 8L FAIR, 2J FOG, then my move of 2J FOH, then 8L FARO. They're all really closely packed together in valuation. Terry just bingoed and the board is loaded with high-equity scoring spots so simulation is going to be even more accurate than usual. FROG is both the highest scoring and most defensive move, cutting off SLEW and badly damaging the scoring potential of any racks Terry draws with the X in it. (By contrast, the Z plays all over the place on this board and there's little I can do about it.) I didn't think of FROG at all, unfortunately. On the other hand, I'm losing and might like SLEW to stay open. HOG vs FOG vs FOH at 2J is quite interesting. Sim prefers HOG, perhaps expecting me to get down some much heavier bingos with SHEN and THEN afterwards. My play of FOH gives me the highest bingo% on my next move, but nevertheless trails HOG by 3 points per turn because of those heavy bingos I draw into, and which stay open a huge amount of the time thanks to the other good scoring spots available. I'll give FROG a #visionsmall and HOG a #tacticssmall.
it's a significant mistake here to miss DORMY. YOU there is (a lot?) better; it sets up a new lane and it also gives up fewer points. -2 #strategysmall
I spent quite a lot of time on this, aapparently I should play FOU on the bottom for defense, but its really close. I actually didn't generate that. -1 #visionsmall BUFO sims one up too. FOU top gives away 3 more, which is a lot.