i saw D# VI(LI)FY and then convinced myself you need two Ls to spell it. N12 D(IVI) does slightly better than FOY, probably because having 3 Is is something that only Odysseus dreams of (if you know, you know) #strategysad
bingoing here is wrong, at least i got that part right. paesanos never wins. i didn't have too much time left, but i figured that the spot at L4 was potentially worth a lot of points, and any bingo i made would be negated by that spot. so i should try to fish and go there, right? i saw ANOA but it empties the bag and i did not estimate my chances of having an out in two spots very highly (it seems to be higher than i thought). i didn't see L4 EON, and i might not have liked it for its AAS? leave. turns out EILO was in the bag so i win many games with a lot of those draws. i should have reasoned it out better. if i leave one in the bag, he can just score a lot and my bingo out won't be enough. why did i get it correct that i needed to pass up a bingo, but then not finish the thought? massive strategic mistake to end this game. -40% win chance roughly #strategylarge
N: 15F ULVAS sims better but I kinda liked putting the V out there to block #strategysadder ? definitely a #knowledgesadder for ULVAS
ALSO play was miscounted as 33 oop
I did not know D6 MADHO(u)SE in this position. I did look for H11 plays and did not come across H11 (A)MAHS. That's a gettable one and clearly worth it over YODH if I don't know the bingo. #findinglarge
i don't know at what point i started playing such lame defense lol. F9 IODATE is fine, or 5D GIE as well. i know it's tempting to block all the things but it's hard to sacrifice so much equity. i don't care about winning, i care about equity. -7 to IODATE, which seems reasonable. i guess i like lowering stdev in this situation. right? maybe this isn't a mistake. #strategymedium maybe
Since there's nothing I can really do to block Evan's new threat, I saw some nice parallels on Row 7 that can score nicely. B2 AUTOMA(TE) is a nice way to clean up the rack and surprisingly sims ahead of these Row 7 reparallels, however I think my idea of Row 7 plays is still better. 7C MAUT is a better version to basically force him to bingo immediately. #visionmedium
oof, this is a bad situation. considered IDS 15A strongly. it sims best. 27 pts is too much to give up. i was trying to go for some lucky big play and didn't want to take the triple. 9J IGGED is also pretty strong; my play is not good. -8 I think one of the main issues with my play, at least earlier on, but also in general, is just that i start freaking out and getting tunnel vision. I'm afraid of losing the game and it makes me only think of a small number of scattered options. I think I improved at this as the tournament progressed. #strategylarge
i think i actually have to exchange all of them. there's a lot of Es unseen already and Ss and blanks and other good tiles to go for. -0.5 #tacticssmall
11H TALONEd missed mate in one #findingsaddest. I thought I had to not empty because of how strong the bag was and definitely not open the triple so I passed up the weaker bings.
suddenly, things aren't so clear. I don't remember if I missed VIN(Y)L or not. I think I really need to deal with one of the threats this turn. This seems like a tactical failure. #tacticsSADDEST
BIRO at 4I sims so much better, partly because of the leave, but also because BROOK gives up significantly more pts. i thought i had a strong chance of playing BROOKITE next turn. -9.5 #strategylarge
A8 WEiGElI(A)/A8 WEIGEli(A) ties after B2 HIPLINE and loses to 4C ELENCHI. I undercounted my score by 1 point so I thought B2 HIPLINE would lose. There are 4 winning plays here. This is one of them, which is better than the also winning B2 WEIGhEd but worse than B2 pIGWEEd. The best play is the savage K9 (OR)G, which I'm guessing always bingos next turn because Championship Player is giving it 40 more points of valuation than B2 pIGWEEd. #ENDGAMESADDEST
I figured this was a very good rack and I had a feeling I might have missed something after I hit my clock. I just could not come across 9C BURSEED for 73 or I3 DEBRU(I)SE for 65. #findinglarge
I think it's better to just ditch the Q now and do K1 Q(U)ORUM, which I didn't even spot. It's actually the only way I can even ditch the Q. #visionmedium
I always screw up the ACDEINOV rack on zyzzyva! I type this but it's VOIDANCE and it will always be VOIDANCE. I saw the bingos through the R, VOLCANIC through the L, and obviously VOIDANCE to the E if COINVADEd* comes off so I'm almost definitely bingoing anyway... but when this one scores 106 and I think it's good, I have to try it, right? #knowledgesmall anyway
Was really close to playing SLY; somehow missed J4 IDYLS which looks good too. DITZY gets hit way harder in response and scores much less. #strategymedium #findingmedium 21:44
i did see MOTHERLY here but it didn't seem worth it to bingo for "only" 62. that's actually pretty dumb; particularly because motherly also blocks a lane and puts me up by a ton. MOUTH actually does better by equity, but motherly wins by win%, by just a little. #strategysmall
MM: First of several awkward decisions especially as I was getting low on time. Mainly considered this, AVOWED, and PAWN/NU. With still a small lead and 2 Ss unseen I decided the conservative approach was better. AVOWED opens a dangerous 2x2 lane for SO----- bingoes, and NU could give back huge scoring plays with SH--- and such at L4. In hindsight, my small lead didn't turn out to be very safe, so I perhaps should've done with NU. I'm going to hit SNED next turn, and if Noah does hit a big play there (which is still fairly unlikely) he'll give me an opportunity to bingo back with my AEDNS leave. Going to go with a #strategysmall here.
YUM 7A #findingSAD #strategySADDER. Instead I opened up another possible triple triple (SUNSHADE was there already, and now ENDASHES), just really wanted to get rid of those Us
Going for an -ED bingo on column I. I felt plays there like RED or ICED are too easily blockable since they take lots of hooks, but column I gets blocked a lot too so perhaps it's still better than LEE. I also considered NEREID, but that seemed bad as well after he parallels. Everything is quite bleak in any case, so this is a #strategysmall at most.
quackle prefers taking the pts with B4 NAV (and also killing that part of the board). RTU? should bingo pretty often, and it's good to score more points here. -5.5 #visionmedium #tacticsmedium
A9 STROBIC #knowledgesaddest for the bing AND the BLEAKY hook T_T also D12 B(A)C is a slightly better version of what i was trying to do with setting up my S
I was trying to decide between 8A GUY and 15D AUGITE. I figured if I kept the Y, I might be able to cash it at 15L after his bingo, but 8A TUYE(R) looks better. #knowledgemedium
not sure what to do here. i laid down YARROW, and then couldn't pick it up for ROSARY cuz he saw that i had a W, and that's annoying; i thought ROSARY was better after all. maybe it's ok to let him know i have the W! quackle likes C13 YOW or C11 VOWER too. it's hard to make a play like YOW when i'm down by a lot, giving him an easy scoring spot, but it gives me the best bingo chances and i need that. -2 #strategysmall ? seems like a bigger mistake.
I feel I've already lost this game. I missed ECO J9. Hoping I paralyze him with this play and that next turn I can either draw well or take a low-variance turn to exchange. ECO is the best play. #findingsmall
I could go for more bingos with MOMS, which sims best. MOCS keeps a better leave overall, but I wanted to keep the O for the 8 row, which I realized might be not so important, as many other vowels are lurking. This seems like a small mistake #strategysmall
Quackle strongly favors 5E ONO, which sets up -ROWS plays at H1 while an E draw gives O8 RESOW and H10 MOWERS and an A draw gives H10 MOWRAS#. #tacticsmedium
I had her on sticks including the D after this. Since I didn't have a good block I'd thought I set up my S, though maybe I should have just done H1 TONUS. I'm not really sure how big of a mistake this is, I'll just mark it as #strategymedium