big error, and I didn't properly find my options here. My thought process was very much focused on JET, and I really remember kinda pretending to myself that I was looking for other options when I was really just excited to play JET cause it felt so good. I want to not make these sort of excitement errors in the future, and truly look for other options. I think I was temporarily unaware of the SEGO threat or something, because once I notice that longterm threat I should be less satisfied with JET. JIB(E)R is absolutely the play here. Not only cause PLT is better than BILPR on this board (more flexibility, not as many problem consonant racks), JIBER takes out the SEGO spot which will be a bitch to block, and the recursive threat will let joey wait for a big play there. #strategylarge even though I didn't find the play, it was based on being unaware of the threat, and JIBER isn't hard to come up with once the threat is noticed
I see the merit in Quackle's pick J10 HIT, that TIZ blocks the H spot at J10 and the Z can consistently score well. But I have a blank, and the H is better for bingos. #tacticssmall
i did actually see BUSLOAD but i didn't love using my S like that. dunno, DRUB is overall pretty weak, i suppose. should just take the points. -5 #strategymedium
As unconventional as this looks, I was not doing L10 (TI)BIAE with a lead. Probably L10 (TI)BIA would have been fine because this pool is very clunky. Don't play scared and pass that up. #strategylarge
:O blocked IRONIES and DERISION and didn't have a blank! I think I have to go for turnover here with IRO(N)IES despite being more likely to hit a bingo after RONIN #strategysmall
Ciao amici, and welcome to Round 1 of Nits speaking into the void! If you are reading this, thank you and apologies in advance
7E BAWK #knowledgesadder
I'm up by enough that I can withstand a bingo at this point, but I think F6 ALLOW goes thru just as many tiles and plays better defense as well. #findingsmall
seems clear that I should just do G7 OVOLI now that I am analyzing. I knew I was playing scared here, but felt Mack still had a decent play at H12 despite challenging. #strategysmall
totally missing COU(V)ADE which I saw instantly today. Interesting that I'm patting myself on the back for an error I made. I guess people (never) change #findingsaddest
EXED much better, fewer points, but blocks Wendy's best chance at winning COXES making LORDINGS also good, didn't know that was valid. #endgameSAD #knowledgeSAD #strategySAD
probably a good idea to keep my S here. a small part of me confesses they did this to maybe draw a challenge on this somewhat rare sticky-S word but that's not worth throwing away an S. i just wasn't enthused about RSU as a leave. -2.5 #focus #strategysmall
once again being safe, though I missed SPElEAN in the same spot which I would be sure of as opposed to SPEANEd, which I was not, given I always confused SNEAPED SPEANED with SNEAKED SKEANED*. #knowledgemedium #findingmedium
I suppose he could have S(E)RAGLIO, the only playable 7 on row 14, and nothing else. I should therefore play deP(L)ANES A2 or fish with E(ME).
I was a bit wary of opening all the nice floaters, but I still gotta just do ZOSTER here. if it was ERST instead of ORST then we might be talking. He only bingoes 5% more after zoster? interesting #tacticsmedium
Sim says 2F VE(R)TUE, I guess, but I'm not sure I could ever play that in this position. Anyway, there's probably something better than this. #strategysad
although SHOVE opens the board for a comeback, it increases his average by a ton since the board is otherwise dead. VE(N)OSE is nice for that, but I also like keeping the I column open for better opening plays later. GO(N)E is interesting to open the board and keep the S. I probably don't need to panic here and should play VENOSE. #findingsmall
knew this was invalid, but missed better alternatives. This was the first play of the tournament, and I purposely phonied. Lol #findingsmall for WARILY which I think is best.
XI C9 might work enough that it's worth playing? Man, plays like that are so hard to pull the trigger on. I think Michael would even sniff the setup sometimes. Dunno? XED in the same spot is probably a bit better, which I figured afterwards, just liked the E a lot more than the I. #tacticssmall
Jackson overdrew and I overturned EIN putting back the N
B1 WOOdR(U)SH iis therefore the play because he can't have a game-winning (W)HITENER to go out
Here I'm hoping he doesn't block the N and I get DISHONOR 3x3
#knowledgelarge
I really just need to play off the X. Just gotta find my 9s. If he bingos with BOWS or BOWL, I get N(AT)ROLITE with an I or L, I get R(AT)TOONED, and with Y or S, I get (AT)TORNEYS. With an M, TORMENT(Or). And then there are the overlaps of whatever bingo Jon would play on row 13. Still, I do insta-lose after some bingos. X(ED) 13B is the alternative, setting up a new lane. There's only one E left. Even if Jon plays on the A column, I will usually win after an out-bingo. If he gets something huge like FILMIER A8 for 101, he will be at 439, with a full rack and an empty bag. If I draw the Y, I get ATTORNEYs for 94 and 14 from Jon, winning with a 455. If I draw a bingo on row 13 like TONNERs, I'm scoring 72 and getting 20, tying with a 439. That's at the upper end of bad for me. However, if Jon doesn't bingo immediately, the same will then apply for my bingos on the A column. So it gets kind of dicey. Still, it's a very interesting option. This one, OX, runs into some bad draws, with only a 2/3 chance at best of a bingo. Playing just the X off is more like a 75% chance. This does block a bit, and his bingos will actually open a lane after this, which is why I chose it. But this was a scared play. Could have really gone badly for me. #strategylarge
14J ROOST is a much better play; it does not give back O4 DONEE/RAKEE, and it blocks L12 DANK/DARK, while guaranteeing an out with whatever I draw. #visionlarge (-16)
i spent literally about 7 minutes on this move. i saw almost all the top possibilities, but for some reason really hated M(A)VIN. i also was not a big fan of BOVID, blowing the board wide open for no reason. i should just be more systematic. is BROMID keeping NV really that much better than scoring 6 fewer, but keeping an ok leave of BDO and not giving up a potentially giant scoring spot? i didn't see MO(R)BID (need to learn my 6s - anagram pairs) and i might have played it if i'd seen it; it sims almost as well as MAVIN. -4.5 #strategymedium
so defensive .. 10H TOO scores 4 more and it's worth continuing to be aggressive when the board has some juicy bingo lanes. i think? -4.5 #strategymedium
Another big mistake. 10I WERE is much harder to underlap since WA and WI are not words. My opponent scores 7 fewer points after 10I WERE. #STRATEGYLARGE
8K (T)OZIE is best. This ties because he can play M7 D(E)NI threatening to go out with E1 (Y)ODE if I play B4 ZO, though he had very little time remaining and finding that sequence would have been difficult. #endgamesaddest
This set in motion a very sad tournament for me with regards with spread. I know there are many more examples of this, where I could have won by so much more in a game that ended up being very tight. EMBODIER seemed totally ridiculous to me, since IMBODIER* was surely invalid. But that is logical. Not NWL-based thinking will not get you far in NWL. #knowledgelarge
I may have chickened out of DOGTROT here. But maybe that was some other game. GAROTT(ES) seems better since only OI are out to overlap on the O column, and I would be keeping an O. #tacticssmall
LIBEL 11I is actually simming better; i suppose there's the dangerous hotspot i'm creating, plus it's relatively easy for him to score a bunch at 11K as well with the right letters. -2 #strategysmall #finding
F4 (B)OX sets up a hotspot at E5 and keeps column O open, and (L)OX apparently gives me a 3% better chance of bingoing next turn. Yet (B)OX wins the sim. I suppose that I often draw decisive double-doubles afterward. #tacticsmedium
The following bingos score 89: 15A cOrDLIK(E), gOaDLIK(E), hOoDLIK(E), hoODLIK(E), LOrDLIK(E), lOrDLIK(E), and tOaDLIK(E). I chose tOaDLIK(E) because I was more sure of it than the other options (I also considered some phonies, notably gOlDLIKE* and woODLIKE*), despite seeing that it allows A8 BORTIES(T)#; it also allows COMBIES(T)#. Meanwhile, cOrDLIK(E) allows A8 COSMETI(C), hOoDLIK(E) or hoODLIK(E) allows A8 BESMIRC(h), and LOrDlIK(E) or lOrDLIK(E) allows A8 COISTRE(L) or COISTRE(l). gOaDLIK(E) allows nothing at A8. LOrDlIK(E) and lOrDLIK(E) are best; gOaDLIK(E) is third, as when Dennis has CEIORST he can play B4 TERCIOS#; and tOaDLIK(E) is fifth. Their valuations differ by less than a point. #endgamesmall
It's probably just MINCY here. I don't hate this I guess, but if you don't hit you're in a lot of trouble. The sim has this very close, and MY does underperform since I'm farther behind than Quackle realizes, but OPA means that I really need to kill the C and T more than Quackle would think too #findingsmall
could someone explain how GOT gives up 2 more pts on average than TOG? easier to overlap? is it just the H hook? this is so weird. TOG also results in a higher average score for me next turn so overall this sims a shocking 1.5 pts worse than TOG! #strategysmall
This needs to be HIN or HAN for sure, setting up a board where any -D bingo plays in several spots. There are six As unseen compared to just four Is, so HAN appears to have the tiniest edge. Both of those plays are incredibly close in sim with HAND and HIND but the little things matter... #tacticssmall
not sure enough of BLAWED (and i really should be because i know BLAW is a verb, but maybe its only past tense is BLAWN, who knows). but whatever, this wins. -9 #knowledgelarge
keeping ES is also worth thinking about. i figured that one was slightly better, but sometimes it's worth not always making the top equity play. i don't think that is a mathematically apt lemma (the top play should always be made) but i figured the difference was small enough that once in a while i like going for it. -0.5 #tacticssmall
this time my play was terrible. i don't care. this is the worst draw ever to EIN?. i was trying to make it slightly harder for him to hit the triple but i may have also made it slightly easier. what a disaster of a draw this was, it nearly seals the game, but i deserve it for the bad play earlier on. -AIII sims best; i almost did that. -3 #strategysmall
incredibly frustrated here. The board isn't close to being contained and now if he gets a bingo I am barely ahead. E7 T(U)RR is winning a sim, isn't that ridiculous. I saw it but thought it took an E. lmao fuck. I can just block the S hook later with a VIVAT play ending in RT. #knowledgemedium I exchanged XTTRT keeping RZ