Joey: ESCARGOT
Josh: had I seen ESCARGOT during my thought process last turn or as a review of said thought process this turn, I would have challenged QUICKY* off the board and been ahead by 200. I should still challenge because how likely is he to block the D anyway? I don't need to worry pretty much at all about having a spot to bingo. Horrible #knowledgesaddest
I seriously considered playing 1A WAZ(O)OING* before deciding that it was more likely that the blank was in the bag and I could draw it to win than WAZOOING* being a word. This isn't actually the best play. C1 ZO(A) saves 1A WA(ZO)O and wins about 50% of the time as opposed to this which wins about 30% of the time. #endgamelarge
K10 IS bings way more. Whatever I play here, he's going to know I'm close to a bing. I might as well increase the bing % and fish the S instead of the N. #strategylarge because this is way worse for bing %.
I wasn't sure if it was HYOIDS or PYOIDS* that was good. If I was sure, I definitely would have done 13C OsTIARY. Out of the plays I did see, I considered 11A YAk(I)TORI but that gave back too much to him. I also saw this as more sound than I6 AuD(I)TORY or pO(D)IATRY. That said, 13C OsTIARY is clearly best but those -OID words that do or don't take an S are a bit tricky. #knowledgelarge
i had a very bad feeling about his rack based on my last couple of games, and knew i needed to race to the blanks and S (SWILE, two blanks unseen, etc). i thought i should block a few lanes. of course it's an overreaction to blow up this nice rack for 20 pts only when i can do L1 KAMI, which decently blocks the T as well but keeps a much better leave. 4B CINEMA is another very nice alternative. this is clearly me being scared and overreacting to the way this tournament is going. -7 #strategymedium
After Bryan's last play, I was nervous about doing K4 NERVuLE. It's possible he might have had an R for the RANI hook, but of course he could have also kept AEIN or EINT as a leave. Accordingly, I chose a bingo that did not take an S. I couldn't remember if LEVANTER took an S (it does). That said, I should have given more thought to doing K6 NERVuLE for an extra 2 points and if Bryan might not have kept high pointers to try to go for them myself. #strategymedium
i can smell that X setup from a mile away, Josh. YACK is the obvious play here, but when you infer an X, 10D DAM goes up to the top. there is a lot more C-K synergy so CAM is not right here. -5.5 #tacticsmedium
4A QUARE(R) is a #visionSADDEST. I saw 4C QUA(R)ER but I was in such a defensive mindset I didn't think to hang anything in the triple line, especially after two 1 tile plays. I decided to put the S on this so she can't hook it and is forced to find eights.
This is going for a draw of B, C, H, or L to threaten 3E bingos while keeping row 10 open. However, M9 WAI(S) sims best, probably because it keeps 3C bingos available, which might be more likely. #strategylarge
NOH might be better because it saves QA(T) 8D which is currently my best Q spot, and unlikely to improve much. I could also play QA(T) now #tacticssmall
Ciao amici, and welcome to Round 1 of Nits speaking into the void! If you are reading this, thank you and apologies in advance
7E BAWK #knowledgesadder
this makes the X really powerful, AXES is like a game winning play. She already really likely has an S on her rack, probably not the X but it's possible she kept it with ZA (with AX I12 I'd assume she didn't have it). NIB only allows AXES, whereas BIN allows both axis and axes. am I in a bad enough position to need to win by getting axis? if that's the case I should play BIN. If I think I can win another way I should make it less likely she gets the play, and should play NIB. I didn't consider BI(T) 6F which is pretty cool - I save HADJI for next turn and don't allow the big X possibility. Can I win if she draws the X and I don't draw the blank? I feel like after BIT the game becomes more about the blank, whereas after BIN it's more about the X and AX?S, but the blank could still allow me to bingo if she got the play. Turnover is important here cause of the value of the blank and X, so maybe I should play QUERYING - still saves BIT and HADJI plays, doesn't give anything back.
I'm inclined to not exchange here, even though it seems like a decent option optimally. I think I can outrun here, and I'd like to be able to outrun even if I don't draw the blank. I feel like QUERYING is good even though the sim hates it - I don't allow AX?S plays, I save HADJI and BIT for future turns, at which point she may have played the I or X. I think I should at least play NIB over BIN, my chance of drawing AXIS is pretty low so I should at least make it harder for her to get it. Other than that I have no idea what to do here. #strategysmall
I did see AY/AYE/TYE at N5, but CAGEY seemed better. Quackle says this is a serious mistake, because I'm destroying my rack for a block that isn't effective; he still has Row 1. (-19 valuation, -5% win%) #strategylarge
Pretty sure G3 XU wins 7/8 (loses with Q draw) and this wins 6/8 (loses with G and Q draw). I wanted to block G3 QI and 1H (F)REEZInG. I was very scared of losing with 1H (F)REEZInG + Q stick for a bajillion points. I probably have to just give up if the Q is in the bag. #strategysadder
pretty bad miss of AC(T)OR. (FE)M M1 hits bingos with a D, S, U and V and also Quackle wants me to play SCORIA 15A next turn a lot which I will never do, so M1 (FE)M has the best valuation. #findingmedium
i liked sacrificing some points here to kill the bottom left of the board; i thought it was worth it. 13G CODEiNE sims best because it scores best, i guess, lol. maybe i should do it. quackle doesn't like these types of sacrifices. is congeed correct? i also saw encoded etc at 13G but it still doesn't kill the bottom left quadrant. -3.5 #notanerror? #strategysmall?
was unsure of GAJO being still there. This is a huge problem. But I could just play OWT A1, never saw this. Considered A(D)AW mainly. This was bad. #findingsaddest
could also do PAH for one point less to further restrict overrlaps. I retain the only two letters in the pool that can overlap PA. Furthermore, he can set up D(RAG) or B(RAG) after either play with R(AG) for 4, but I can draw an E to block with TE(PA) after PAH and it is much trickier to block after HAP. B(ROO) is the lurking threat here, he could just bingo there at any time, but making another spot with R(AG) might just be his key to victory in some lines. #tacticssmall
This is one of five plays that win 100% because they block N5 VENDEES--a word I had forgotten about. Quackle likes L8 WO because it doesn't empty the bag. This is the pre-endgame, though, and I don't trust Quackle here. I like 10J WAUR, unloading a U with one unseen. #strategymedium
I put some thought into this and F4 PARLE. PARLE reduces opponent's average score by 9 over this. If scorinig defense were equal, QAI(D) would be the right play. However, I grossly undervalued defense again here. #strategymedium
L2 NI(E) only draws into DELOUSE, J2 UN(I) draws into 8 playable bings, M2 OU(D) into 10 playable bingos. Like, yeah, it's blockable but I gotta hope that he can't/doesn't. This one feels vv #strategysaddest because right idea, rough execution
once again being safe, though I missed SPElEAN in the same spot which I would be sure of as opposed to SPEANEd, which I was not, given I always confused SNEAPED SPEANED with SNEAKED SKEANED*. #knowledgemedium #findingmedium
I suppose he could have S(E)RAGLIO, the only playable 7 on row 14, and nothing else. I should therefore play deP(L)ANES A2 or fish with E(ME).
Through four endgame plies, C12 MIRI is the best play that empties the bag, winning 19.58%; EMI(R) wins 15.83%. I lose whenever I draw the Q. #endgamemedium I guess
super interesting choice between D1 ZO(E)A and this. How dangerous is the H1 spot? He took a while to play JOG, does that mean he doesn't have an A or E? I think my gut was really wrong here and I should have played ZO(E)A. In my opinion this is #tacticsmedium but Quackle says it's a 1-point mistake. Quackle has zero hindsight obviously. Jack was setting himself up under JO.
this is a poor effort. was banking on the D being in that bag, making it very hard for him to block. however, he can just play TI or NU and block pretty thoroughly. I think NEE I11 is an interesting idea. any NEED blocks will either make a lane going left or going right. might be marginal if he plays GRIDE, but still something. Q likes EH/WOOSH, but I'm worried about plays around there because the G can block so well. #strategylarge cause this isn't very good.
failed to find plays here, many plays look good that I didn't see. This was the start of me thinking I was ahead, when Noah and I were actually around tied. DUNGAREE scored a lot. 13C MOONI(L)Y looks decent here. 9G O(T)IC is very nice, and M(O)ONY only does well because it keeps O(T)IC for next turn. N10 (D)OOMY is also a good play. #findingsmall
I missed an opportunity here--8L FIG sets up the S at O8, and it can be blocked only with the remaining A. Quackle prefers GIF for some reason? #tacticsmedium
this is actually bad because I can no longer Q stick him when he bingos, since 12B and N1 will be open. I should play URI(N)AL 14E instead. That solves all of the problems and should always win, while this does not always win #strategySADDEST
This is just not a good play. CLUNG does not take an S since it's past tense, and if I'm going to open a little bit without giving back significant points to Robert, and if I'm not going to spot 5E (B)LUM(I)NG, I should do 3B MUL(I)NG to try to go for the X myself since Robert doesn't have it after AR. #visionmedium
Wow. I had severe tunnel vision on this first move. I only saw X(U) which was very defensive and draw into some stuff like OTOLOGIC and ZOOLOGIC or something else if more stuff is opened. The other thing I considered was IGLOO 9J to try and set my X up. I totally failed to consider another X setup play, COL(U)GO I5. It's a less worrisome version of IGLOO, giving around 2 points fewer back on average, fewer bingos, and giving me a little bit more. IGLOO is more defensive down the line, which is good if things fall into place, but not good when they don't. I also totally missed OXIC 7J, which is standard. I would consider this a mistake over COL(U)GO for sure, even though IGLOO appears to benefit me over time. FWIW X(U) sims similarly well to the X-setup options, and it also seems to complicate the game the most. With so few moves available in the position, I find it most outrageous that I failed to see other candidates, and am more concerned about that than anything else. #findingsmall #tacticssmall
This isn't bad for scoring, but 7C CORIUM is probably a better defensive option at this score because AWED takes too many hooks. #findingmedium
Also, if CORIA and CORIUM are both good, and SCORIA is good, why can't SCORIUM* be good?
The other options are terrible so this block isn't actually that bad. Sim is saying G13 (P)IU is the only other viable option, but I didn't want to give back big 15F Q plays. Those probably aren't a concern though since I'm ahead by enough to only have to worry about bingos. #strategysmall