Missed two bingos here after he surprisingly blocked ANALYSTS K5. SATYRALS# and STAYSA(I)L. I have no excuse for the latter other than of course I would miss a Y bingo. This turn was also fascinating because I wondered how much the A improved my leave. If I play K9 SAY, I score 1 less, and don't block the triple. However, I understcored SAY by 2 in my head. Still, as somewhat expected, SAY is a much better play than SA(T)AY. I should have gathered that conclusion over the board. #findingsaddest #strategysad
Thankfully Wes went overtime by less than a minute. I didn't see E2 (WO)OF but I was nervous I was going to miss out bingoes through the T. Neither one of us knew that AFTER took an S, and while this is a winning play since N7 CHAsTEN would not quite score enough after accounting for my remaining tiles, Wes actually had no playable bingoes before I played AFTER. Therefore, WOOF really should have been the play! #endgamelarge
i saw outrank pretty quickly, but missed outdrank. either way i was trying to figure out if it was worth passing the bingo up. F10 TAROK actually sims better than my bingo, but OUTDRANK sims best. -2.5 #findingsmall
I now realized that I wasn't actually ahead, but this still looked quite strong to block the easy scoring spot, so I was happy to take it over XI(S) for 55. This is valid strategy for blitz, since I'm also leaving myself with FEH 4F for next turn, but the position is obviously richer than that. Not playing 4 tiles is good here because neither of us wants too draw the Q. The pool is very bad so blocking row 1 isn't really all that valuable, except for a game-ending play there like WEARY, TEARING, YEARN, which happens only once in a while. 14F XI(S) is definitely the stronger choice. #tacticslarge
I couldn't see any way to fish off 1 tile and guarantee a bingo in two spots that can't be blocked. It turns out there are none, but fishing off the U draws into I6 AN(T)Il(A)BOR and 14F BARItON(E) which is pretty cool, but I'm never finding I6 AN(T)Il(A)BOR and blocks of 14F BARItON(E) will often block I6 AN(T)Il(A)BOR too if I somehow manage to find it (I won't) and he doesn't. None of this matters too much anyway since this is the finals and a tie is pretty unlikely. 1C (C)ARIBOU is probably fine. #findingsadder
was pretty nervous here for some reason. Just wanted to play something I was sure of. But I was as sure as I could be of MUTER. I then thought it didn't make a difference between MUTER and MITER, but the difference is 13 points. I'm expecting Q(I) 10K, so I should be able to see that I get a much stronger play after that if I keep MI than keeping MU. MI(R) would then be 32. Orry has to forgo QIS to play optimally after MUTER. #endgameSADDEST
totally missed O13 SEZ. i think, i can't remember. i don't think i would pass up that many pts for no reason, the S isn't worth anything on this board. -17.5 #visionlarge
Definitely not doing N10 DATOS here. While I didn't even consider doing 11D QATS, that would have been worth it with 3 more Ss left. The sim does easily concur. #strategyquestionable
i need to keep fishing. 9G D(I)F is totally fine. mistake here. #strategylarge -10 (fetid at 13I is a lot better, i didn't even think of it because i was not focused and playing like garbage)
now worried about ABASIC* smh, the star play is 7G P(R)EED(I)T for 42(!). This hits PRIED 13I with an R, thought it might be worth going for. #knowledgelarge #findinglarge
I do want to undouble my D here. There is deceptively not as much to score as it first looks. I think I3 DIDY looks stronger to score a couple more and FIL is actually not that bad a leave on this board since I can always reopen the bottom right with 12K plays with my F. #findingmedium
it was at this point that I knew I would lose the game. I somehow missed 7F HOYA, which despite sucking, is far and away the best shot I have. #findingsmall
FEM looks very solid because the leave is much better and I'm much likelier to hit PIEZO H1, can also hit ZERO and stuff 12A. The E is a good tile part 1209830935. #findingsmall
js: this is not a word cd: yeah, i wanted to just play POUCH but i didn't like keeping ALL. i didn't think of HAUL I7, pretty straightforward. i spent a lot of time iterating subwords through P and R etc, gotta always get better at anagramming. -6.5 #findingmedium
I see the merit in Quackle's pick J10 HIT, that TIZ blocks the H spot at J10 and the Z can consistently score well. But I have a blank, and the H is better for bingos. #tacticssmall
And SIEGING doesn't play. I hate it when these small exchanges don't pan out! This was a suboptimal move and is where I feel like I lost the game. I can score the same with 9E GI and keep much better. While I do set up SEXING, he can use Column G to both score and block effectively. #strategylarge
unsure of RESCRIPT, which is much better, but as always, my potentially disastrous mistakes do not end in disaster. Held and released. #knowledgemedium
I put down 15K (S)HIVA first but picked it up because I was afraid of not drawing enough vowels with FLT to get the bing I need. I didn't even consider Q bombs. RIP. Even 15K (S)HAFT is alright, this is a huge oversight. #strategylarge
really wasn't sure about reboring. i was worried i would play it and he'd come back with some big Q play. i didn't think i was going to win if i bingoed, in any case. either i draw the Q and have to go out in two turns, or he has the Q and even if he doesn't have the U he can score enough. however, he does have 20 fewer points because of his clock. this was a desperation move to block QUIT, maybe he doesn't have QUATE or QUOTA, i don't know, i suck. quackle says ReBORING almost never wins, and 7M B(E) will win a bit more often (but again quackle doesn't have his correct score). #strategylarge
7I OUR is also cool, the U isn't super parallelable so it's kind of a board fork. GURU doesn't give much back, and I chose this one for 1 less point because it doens't allow h11 plays. h11 plays aren't so bad for me cause they give more lanes, but they still score better than most other plays on the board. I also like leaving a bit more distance from the E column in case a LEGGY play comes down, partially inhibiting my lanes. although EORS > ERSU, the better board position makes OUR bingo almost as much as GURU. #tacticssmall
I didn't see E11 (K)HAF, but this isn't too much worse. It felt reckless to set up an S hook that I don't have and keep a not very promising leave. With that said, a play that might fit the theme of playing it safer is 13D HUB, and it does sim ahead of FUB despite HATE being a usually better leave. #strategysmall
I thought I need to make some desperate fish here but my best shot is to just try and outrun with plays making BIRLS. I really just needed more time to figure it out. #timesaddest #strategysaddest
this has quite good recursion potential, so it's not as much of a mistake as quackle says over OU(T)AGE. But it's a testament to how OUTAGE is better than FUG doesn't immediately do as well, since it means I don't draw a huge Q play as often as I would like to. #findingmedium
really tough to sacrifice 7 points, but with both blanks out and no great scoring spots, it's potentially worth doing. Quackle thinks this is a significant mistake. It definitely makes things a lot easier as well. #strategysmall
I needed to pay better attention to the pool. My opponent is unlikely to bingo. I don't need to block the A column. In fact, I kinda need it to stay open for myself. L2 JO(L) is fine. #strategysmall
M3 ZE #TIMESADDEST. I spent all my time on the previous turn. The P was in the bag, so I had a 1/3 to hit 14E PELITIC. Also, #knowledgesad for sad desparate challenge.
PEEpULS is much better. I only see UPSLEEP* and recognize that as a phony, and I had already lost 2 minutes because I was late from lunch. Still need to see that shit.
#findingmedium
I considered RESMELT, but wasn't sure on it. spend a few minutes trying to find a double double here. #knowledgeSAD
Also missed some good overlapping 7s. #visionSAD
TA(N)E# is tied for 157th best equity but survives the sim without being cut off; it has no back hook and blocks (FEW)S# and rows 11 and 13, thereby minimizing Dennis's bingo chance, at the expense of scoring only 4 points. 10C CAA# wins the sim, playing no defense at all but keeping the best leave for the consonant-heavy pool; 3E CA(UM)# and 3L (R)ACA# are close behind. #strategysmall
i kind of gave up on finding the best way to win here. i'm not totally sure how to do it. it probably involves him having the Q. like - i'm going to lose anyway, so i shouldn't be trying to avoid the Q, just assume he has it and open up another lane and hope to draw for a miracle. i saw something like 2L MOI could lead to LEPORID, for example, but that seems easily blockable. 15L IM(ID)O is looking best here. #strategysmall
well now i'm worried so it's ok to sacrifice some equity to block here. 3K OBOE just seems way too aggressive right? i guess OTIC keeps way too terrible of a leave, and he could still bingo through the B or something. M3 OE might be ok. idk. -12.5 #strategylarge
4A BRAV(u)RA was missed. #findinglarge
Quackle likes 6D R(E)B. Not sure what to make of that other than there are no scoring spots on this board for Fern so I can leave myself with my case N for D4? I don't buy it.
This is such an automatic play that how could there possibly be anything better? Well, I did look for better plays and missed them. KEFIR 8A, which scores a little more, takes out Column B, and-- most importantly, does not open a big scoring spot for my opponent. But a true wizard would have found FEZ H14, setting up the other F. The only other hook that could go there is a T, and there is < 20% chance that Alec drew it after GASTREA. (-15) #visionlarge
I shouldn't play so many tiles to let him stick me with RR. 15K RE is 8 points better than this. But I calculated it out and it seemed I still won. He was also low on time. #endgamemedium
ahhh CONVENTED! #visionlarge I also kinda regretted playing FUN, it lets him overlap sometimes when he has MNX tiles. The sim is kinda weird cause it has him opening a lot after FUN, but realistically I think I should play (E)NUF to be more defensive. CO(N)N is super defensive but also blows up my rack. #tacticssmall for ENUF.
okay wow fishing off the O with M3 O(OM) has me winning 70% of the time. WOE wins like 40% of the time. Do i really need to bingo here? I guess if my opp has the J, they outscore me? #strategysaddest
did not see the H hook on HUMP, and probably would not have known HUMPHS was valid. A play like HIE or HILI at 14L is a good idea here to set up a big lane #findingsmall #knowledgesmall
I thought that the leave for 8G VAX was too vowel heavy and guaranteeing and X spot would be worth it. But this caps my score next turn at around 30-something and bings a lot less, and is also less defensive. It probably isn't that different but in hindsight 8G VAX seems a bit better. #strategysmall
greedy. wasn't sure, but thought I could draw a free turn a lot. Didn't want to put the E at 4I. knew he couldn't block everything if this came off. Also he might just assume this was an E and not look at the slip. Stupid. #knowledgeSADDEST
pretty bad miss of AC(T)OR. (FE)M M1 hits bingos with a D, S, U and V and also Quackle wants me to play SCORIA 15A next turn a lot which I will never do, so M1 (FE)M has the best valuation. #findingmedium
Absolutely and horribly inexcusable. This is invalid and I held for a while, unable to remember if BATWING or WINGBAT* is valid. I remembered that Reid had a history of knowing a lot of words and I know that I don't know anything at all and eventually accept and make the spread-cutting move but WINGBATS* ISN'T A WORD ASDAFSD
Literally when the only way to lose is to accept a word that looks funny to you, you should probably challenge that word. Guhhhhhh. This is one of many, many times where I show absolutely no faith in my word knoweldge this tournament.
#knowledgesaddest #tacticssaddest (idk if I can tag two things but I'll try)