S isn't amazing here so it's best to take 13 points with SN(E)LL 6H which I considered. Also better to keep RS here, the vowels to play through do not comprise of an E so the D is not very good. #strategysmall
A really interesting first rack! PAYED is standard and I think I still should have played it. I didn't realize the S hook it set up when I considered it, which would have pushed it over the edge for me. Also, as I took a little while on it, there is some challenge upside. I could also do PAY or PYA to set up S hooks, they do well in the sim. I was worried about the overlaps after PAYED, and some of them do give back good plays to me, but he can probably find one that doesn't. I think PAYED is definitely better though, I average 6 more after PAYED! #tacticssmall it is a bit odd that I forwent the standard payed due to overlaps then I went with the PEATY that gives easier overlaps, but I felt that Y on the star was too bingo defensive for my leave. not a great play
This gives back a cool 10. #endgamesadder
Sokol: this is my analysis of what should happen after (F)UN for 6. tl;dr the play, all things considered, probably wins 50/50, due to inference. My calculations come to a cynical result of 216/360, inferring that Josh will always block correctly when I can only hit one area. Optimism gives me closer to 2/3 when he blocks the wrong spot.
CE loses
CO wins 16/360
GE dead with O in bag, K in bag, 1/2 C in bag, L in bag, S in bag, probably dead with E in bag, so 5/16*2/45 so 5/360
GO dead with E in bag, L in bag and K in bag, 8/360
EE loses
KO loses
KE loses
KG loses with E in bag, O in bag, 4/360
KL wins 8/360
KS wins 16/360
CG wins 8/360
CL wins 8/360
CS wins 16/360
GS wins 16/360
LS wins 16/360
ES wins 32/360
OS wins 32/360
EO loses
OO loses
SS wins 8/360
EL wins 16/360
LO wins 16/360
GL wins 6/360
CK probably loses
I spent over 7 minutes on this turn and couldn't find any double-doubles. Two blanks are too hard for a feeble mind like mine. There were four 2x2s. Gah this was horrible #findingsaddest #knowledgesaddest
lots of options here. This seems a bit too middling and remember regretting it. G(ID) is fine even though it doesn't hit much. I should block the spot and keep decently. #strategysmall
Before this turn, I had maybe 9 minutes on my clock, but my tracking was off. I think I spent about 8 minutes retracking before realizing we were missing a tile. By the time we found it I had maybe a minute left. I panicked and played this. #TIMESADDEST
and then I just make this inexplicably stupid play, going for ZI(G)S and ZA(G)S, but creating a new big threat and not having a response to a lot of plays that just block what I'm going for, or if I just miss completely. #strategySADDEST
This should've been DEGUST, which I considered; there are no spots for sevens with my DST leave apart from DOJOS or EMS. Quackle says I bingo 21% after TEGU and 18% after DEGUST, which is easily close enough for me to take 9 extra points here. #strategysmall
Not bad in terms of opening up, but 9F HAY is a little safer. I will get X parallels more often next turn and Joel would have to open up for cheaper on his next move. #visionsmall
the previous game against chris schneider was one of the worst games i've ever played. i know i like saying that a lot and hyperbolizing, but it really truly was; it's up on cross-tables for your viewing needs. i still blame it on that first round loss; i truly believe that if i had won the first game i would have won this tournament, but instead i am sitting here at 5-7 with 8 games to go. after tacos el gordo, one of my favorite restaurants in north america, i felt like it would be a waste of my time and money to not give it my very best shot, so i resolved to play the next 8 games as well as i possibly could. i think KEG or OAKED are a little better than my move, though. -1.5 #strategysmall
This game is going to be interesting. Too bad I missed a key option here, E5 LAY(O)UTS, so perhaps things would have been different if I had seen that. I liked this over (G)UY because the leave was less bingo-dependent and slightly less variant. I probably missed LAY(O)UTS because I spent the first minute or so of my time lamenting that SALUTORY* was the word I think Nigel Peltier played against Conrad at 2014 Nationals which Conrad accepted. #findingsmall
I saw OcREATE, but I didn't want to give up a C hook at A1. This sacrifices 3 points, yet Quackle rates this an 8-point mistake. In hindsight, it was a mistake; I drew both C's and the other blank this game. #tacticssmall
noticed him noticing S(CENT) finally and didn't notice my bing in the minute or so preceding this realization. ABSENTEE missed for the nth time #findingSADDEST
Could play 1A REBATO, but covering the W reduces Seth's scoring for next turn and the AEGT leave bingos a little bit more than a lone G. I somehow didn't consider 4A BOATER, which also scores quite well and covers the 4A scoring spot, which will score a lot if Seth can play a six hooking EX. #strategysmall
I completely misevaluated where the likely bingos were going. I thought blocking the C column was important, but 15 row is more dangerous. The best simming move is 14C EAR(D) and similar moves on row 14 and 15 also sim well. #strategysaddest
Sid pointed out SNUG J8, which sims even with FUGIO, but is probably a little bit better. Quackle always underrates defensive moves like that. Another option, which I didn't see, is OUZEL C11. OUZEL wins the sim, but I like SNUG best. (-1) #visionsmall
M7 MIB is a lil better it seems, at least defensively. -4 #tacticssmall -- actually, i can't see why AEIP results in a higher average score next turn (but lower bingo %).. anyone?
This move actually sims quite well despite it being poor on static equity. There's only 2 As left for her to be able to play on top of the G, and if she plays below the G with the numerous Is that are still unseen, I can actually play underneath and make the board harder for her to play on. That said, I can see N2 CLAW being better since it's 8 more and it still effectively takes out Column M. #findingsmall
This is such an automatic play that how could there possibly be anything better? Well, I did look for better plays and missed them. KEFIR 8A, which scores a little more, takes out Column B, and-- most importantly, does not open a big scoring spot for my opponent. But a true wizard would have found FEZ H14, setting up the other F. The only other hook that could go there is a T, and there is < 20% chance that Alec drew it after GASTREA. (-15) #visionlarge
i think this was a massive mistake. i didn't want to play 3C TAX for 29 because it keeps two Us, and i was worried that i was just going to have a very clunky rack the following turn and lose that way. my play at least sets up a lane. but, if he has WAX or TAX himself i'm dead. i really regret not playing TAX. i think i could survive with BLSUU and 29 pts. having the case S is awesome. i can also do E11 HABU, which i also like. -6 #strategymedium
Maybe an overreaction to her fish? Quackle is saying it's fine to outrun here and I probably should just play H11 GOSH and save 11A MY in case I need an emergency scoring option for next turn. #strategymedium
Quackle slightly prefers 11B ODA and OCA, sacrificing some points to gain a solid chunk of bingo%. That does make sense. JAGAS overlapping plays still go down after CANOED, and JESTINGS is still wide open, so I shouldn't be scared to make JAGAS plays more accessible after ODA/OCA, especially at a deficit. #strategysmall - forgot to record time.
I also considered KI in the same spot. Was going to play that until Mack gave me 2 more points for EKING. KI is potentially still better, but Mack is definitely likely to try and block row 5 next and if I don't hit immediately I might be in board trouble. Row 14 and column K are still available after KI, which is probably good enough. #tacticssmall
Again, with ??S unseen, I should play more tiles. I7 M(E)TES, M(E)ATS, and M(E)TES win a close sim despite using the S; I wanted to use it for (BRINGER)S. I considered K8 SAMLET, which blocks almost all the bingo lanes and plays six tiles; it is not far behind. L(I)ME is far behind. #strategymedium
this was really bad, since I was almost sure ENORMS* was good, despite it coming up with Rafi at 2022 Word Cup. Misremembered, horrendously. #knowledgesaddest
N5 DUELLI is beautiful. DILUTE isn't that great. it actually slightly raises his bingo percentage, even though i'm trying to block an easy 7 lane. -3 #findingmedium #knowledgemedium #strategymedium
I did consider 10F VE(L)UM, but that's too blocky for my liking since VELUMS* isn't good. I did not know 5H (S)WEVEN, which does look better positionally at this score even though I don't care for the right angle it creates. #knowledgemedium
C12 OTTO is so insane and it sims so well. I bingo more after J9 TO(N)G than C12 OTTO but my bingos score a lot. I need to leave 2 in the bag so that she plays like 1 which doesn't score as much and doesnt block places as easily. It's all about the timing #strategysaddest
Mainly considered BOTS, 6I IONS, and D8 VIATOR. I discarded IONS pretty quickly as I felt it needlessly gives Ken an easy like for 7s. The main downside of BOTS was that I can draw 3 Is, but I felt with VIATOR the upside of ISS wasn't that great - in all likelihood I'll be making a play like BOTS anyway next turn, and perhaps not even that if I don't draw an E or O. The one benefit that makes VIATOR worth considering is that it blocks plays like 12A ZETA, but I decided those were unlikely enough and would probably give me a big play back enough that BOTS was worth it. But the best play, which I didn't consider, looks to be 6G SARINS - the second S isn't that valuable after BOTS anyway, and SARINS gives me more chances at the scoring tiles in the pool while minimizing the chances of I trouble. #visionmedium
i should still do C12 MM. it just seems so lame. i'm not enthused by that leave and would rather get some more points. RETEM does give back a few more, though. if i'd seen CERMET i might have played it. -3 #findingmedium
#knowledgesad for challenging JOBE. I swear my brain was like "yeah that's a word" but I was like "hmmm what if my brain's lying to me and it's NOT a word?" anyway. that happened.