Trying to block row 15 without opening anything on row 14 that didn't already play on row 12. But 15G FLARE fulfils this requirement while scoring three more points. Apparently 15F RALLYE is best, but I would still play FLARE. M3 VOCABLY is awesome, and it doesn't take any hooks, unlike VOCABLE. #findingsmall
I saw O10 IRITIC, and I should have played it. IRITIC blocks column O, one of the higher-scoring bingo lanes on the board, and partially blocks row 12. The reason I played ICIER is that it fully blocks rows 12 and 13, the easiest bingo lanes. But it sacrifices 13 points, W > ITW, and I can easily outrun most row 13 bingos. #tacticsmedium
CHAMP seems like the word to play here, but which placement? There are so many. I think after Matthew's move I need to be making as few floaters as possible and definitely not a double-double line, making 9G CHAMP the best choice. #tacticssmall
outruns most out-bingos, but not all of them. Had I been sure of CLODPOLE, I might have played that, since most of her bingos fit there. I think CLODPOLE should win the most games, since I don't foresee losing in any endgames that don't involve bingos. 32 draws seem to win for Chloe after WOODLICE, and 27 after C(L)ODpOLE, so a slight edge to blocking. If it were the beginning of the tournament, WOODLICE would be the best play for spread. #knowledgesmall
PITOT 10J is better, once again because F2 (A: 10J?) is such a big spot. Also better is TIPTOED 13C, breaking up the unpalatable DS combo. (-3.5) #visionmedium
Wow. I could have just as easily done something like (C)OTTAgES in the same spot and be OK. Instead I phonied for the 2nd time today. Am I seriously wrong when I thought 2 people could give a speech or do a protest at the same time? Apparently, COSTATE means having ribs, and thus it takes no hooks. #findingsad
i did see 2F JEE, but didn't like that i don't have one of the A's to front-hook it. i don't like it that much, idk. i think i would still do JIG any day unless someone convinces me otherwise. -4 #tacticssmall (if anything)
I panicked here. Massively.
I didn't know what the standings were, I just knew I had to play a valid word to secure the win. I also wanted to play the endgame well. I saw (S)PURGALL and briefly wondered if I could be making it up. I tried to see what his highest-scoring play was, but with seconds to go I could only see 15, which would tie the game, but I couldn't be sure. Had I been aware of the standings, I would have played the bingo!
#endgamelarge
I missed 2e YOU, which I think is the play here. I liked this more than coyau just for defense, but I think YOU is probably more defensive cause he can start with any vowel or S. He has an R more often than usual given he played one and also is keeping bingo tiles, but the H1 YOUR spot isn't massive. #findinglarge
Missed the sweet (F)O(D)GEL. I am not in a good position, but any board opening play I can make will just get outrun too easily. FODGEL is a better version of this plsy. #visionmedium
huge misplay this turn, totally missed a lot of interesting options. HUMANE opens the door to GE(D) and LE(D)E and LE(D)GE as setups. GAED N2 is also perhaps a better play. S(T)AGED is interesting as well. The key here is whether he has a blank on his rack. I think the answer is usually, since Q(I) for 31 would often come down. But with the board not great for bingoes, or a rack that isn't helped by the blank a lot, he may elecet to play Qi without another blank in hand. I remember thinking it was decently likely he didn't have another blank, but wasn't sure. I now think that he would probably keep the blank very often and play for 31, the options to outrun in an endgame are immense. A sim has GED, LEDGE, STAGED, GAED, EDGE, and GLADE I'm really not sure what's right, but I am pretty sure I would play LE(D)GE had I seen HUMANE. #visionsmall
i should actually play G2 JEEP since i know he doesn't have the blank at this point so i should go for it. i can always block it next turn. -10 #strategylarge
I didn't challenge it off, but for the wrong reason: I really thought HOMMOG* was good and therefore I thought HOMMOGS* was good! But more importantly, 12A TYLOSINS was missed! #visionsad
At this point I think I have the board under control because she didn't put the E on HAWS, so I burnt the R so sevens didn't fit on the board. Big mistake. There are a bunch of vowels left and I'm not even up by that much. #strategymedium
I did not know D6 MADHO(u)SE in this position. I did look for H11 plays and did not come across H11 (A)MAHS. That's a gettable one and clearly worth it over YODH if I don't know the bingo. #findinglarge
This might be the play I'm unhappiest about from the entire tournament. Why am I still making this error? EE, same spot, gives me 20% more bingo. #tacticslarge
This was a pretty terrible play. I just saw it and really liked it, but I thought there were no O's left somehow? Really thought he couldn't do much after this. I had tracked fine. I wanted to draw the Q for Q(U)AI D1 or QI 1G. This is one of the worst plays I made this tourney. #strategySADDEST
This is the best equity play, but I was sad about partially blocking RHUMBA. In fact I should have sacrificed two points to preserve RHUMBA with 9E EME. #tacticsmedium
Championship Player's suggestions here are not useful. During the stream, chat was suggesting J2 P(OX). I don't think this works out for most draws because he can block the M(POX) hook completely with H2 S(LAD)E or 1K TELI(C) and partially block with 2D LEV or 2D SEV. I looks like J2 P(OX) only wins if I draw the S, which would threaten 13A DOssELS as well as bingos with a blank M on row 1. In all other cases, I don't have 13A DOssELS and he can totally block the MPOX setup or I don't have an M blank bingo that fits even when he can't block (I think). I considered K11 P(O)D, but it seemed like there were way too many bingos in the pool ending in S for that to be correct. I feel like this or something similar like E10 P(OR)E or E10 L(OR)E or E11 (OR)D or D11 (HA)P give me good chances since I have a reasonable shot at hitting bingos on row 1 and row 14. I tried to do a bit of math and it seems like E10 L(OR)E is my best shot. It hits the most bingos to the C and when they do hit they should always overcome his attempts to outrun since I triple the D and P. E10 D(OR)P doesn't hit as many bingos to the C and some of them get outrun by plays like A11 (B)LIVE. This isn't accounting for inferences, but I've already written more than I thought I would so I'll leave that as an exercise to the reader. I've done all of this analysis manually using Zyzzyva, so engines might be able to refute some of these lines or suggest ones I haven't thought of. #strategysaddest
i really find it impossible that i lose after this play unless he has a 6 with -oke. piquet is an option i did not see and pretty much outruns any bngos -10 #findingmedium
i can smell that X setup from a mile away, Josh. YACK is the obvious play here, but when you infer an X, 10D DAM goes up to the top. there is a lot more C-K synergy so CAM is not right here. -5.5 #tacticsmedium
i have to do something clever like 2K SIGH here. although my winning % is low, this is how to come back. the problem with my play is it just gives him an easy scoring dump. SIGH makes it tricky for him. also GRITH > BRITH. -3.5 #strategymedium
I need to play BOURN here, also makes his parallels give back more, another shot at the extremely important S. Sliiiightly fewer bingoes on average though, but still looks worth. #findingsmall
I found this turn difficult to evaluate given all of the high scoring options. I looked at YCLEPT plays, plays in the bottom left, and plays in the bottom right. I did not consider plays at 7G with the J which are key here. I can block the triple triple with 15M MOY and then score very well without needing the Y for the YCLEPT hook after he takes the bottom left triple by playing 7G JOB. #strategysaddest
I overdrew here for the only time this tournament. And it's obviously since I had the blank. Luckily I didn't mix, so he only chose from the 5 I drew. CIZ and the Z is gone. Quackle agrees with that choice. Lucky it wasn't a bigger mistake, but losing the Z is pretty bad. B11 (J)IBE is the favourite. I couldn't stomach it. #strategymedium
this also seemed very wrong. It performs OK in a sim, but the sim does not comprehend Jackson's defensive responses that don't allow re-overlaps on the C column. I really have to throw out rack balance for a turn here and make a weird-looking play like B(A)TE G6o r just OB(E) 6F. #tacticssmall
I wasn't too worried about the 12A hotspot, figuring that Mark is on S? and will probably bingo. Quackle has none of that, playing EEEW at 6D. In retrospect, I concur. (-5) #strategymedium
I spent forever on this play, and didn't get anywhere. My brain was fried and I couldn't focus. I saw plays like WEB 7L or NEWB 12M. I also saw GLOW 5A. WEB/NEWB has to be right. It's possible that Rafi doesn't have either the blank or the S, and with the board getting tighter every turn, I need to keep lanes open to give myself a fighting chance. (-4) #strategymedium
a little sad that FORGETS was blocked and he didn't give me any floaters for a bingo. i was thinking if he bingoes through the L he'd at least give me an E for GOREFEST! i considered GOFER, but not strongly enough, I guess; should have counted it and compared to OFTER. quackle prefers FOG(Y) best, keeping a great leave that bingoes > 2/3 of the time. i tend to dislike not taking points early and staying within striking distance; if FOGY doesn't work out I'll fall farther behind. It's hard to really know. -3 #strategysmall
A rather bizarre play, sacrificing a lot of equity over JEER or either JIMP. I just couldn't stomach the CDIIM leave after JEER, and also didn't like that JEER invited underlaps that block the GURUS hook. EJIDO does a much better job keeping the left hand side open in the long term and floats an E that's not too easy to block without giving back a new lane. DIME(R)I(C) is another option I missed, but I prefer getting rid of the J ASAP since bingoing quickly is of paramount importance. I'm still fine with EJIDO, but Josh preferred JEER and Quackle agrees with him by a decent margin, so I'll call this a #strategysmall.
There are only 4 winning plays. In order from best to worst valuation, they are 12L (ZOO)N, G1 (T)UP, H1 (R)UNG, and G1 (T)UNG. All of these block 2A FRIGATE except for 12L (ZOO)N, which always wins after 2A FRIGATE because I get C2 (I)NGROUPs if I draw the R and C1 P(I)QUiNG if I draw the Q. G1 (T)UP is only about 2 points worse. #endgamesad
reallllly overthought this one. Why didn't I keep my A instead of my O? Worried about duplication with 3 A's unseen DO(D)O H6 is also probably fine.#strategysmall
maybe I should do COUNTERS here, I think that is fine. I don't want the top left to get opened, and right now it's gonna be pretty hard to open it. I didn't 'know HOROLOGER, and I think with my huge lead I'm taking I should take COUNTERS and be more defensive. #tacticssmall
L7 Z(Y)MOID. I think I knew this word? Anyway, if I had studied it more I think I would have found it so I'll tag as #knowledgemedium instead of finding or vision.
8L (DI)VO# is better than this, but the sim winner is 11E VOR#. VOR# scores well and reduces Robert's average score, and the pool is vowel-heavy, so I can afford to keep DINN. 11C VINO and 5C VINO(US) are close behind. #strategymedium