I need to do L3 (E)A if I want my own bingo. (FA)A is next best but my bingo chances plummet from more than 2/3rds of the time to less than half the time #strategysaddest
Played it safe with taking out 3x3s, but 15C (D)EGRADeS would have addressed it directly while scoring 13 more. No 3x3s were missed, but spread still matters. Also misscored as 70. #findingmedium
I am happy to burn my S here if it means scoring nearly 20 points more than my next best play, but the move should have been 14B EASEL for 34. That's a miss. #visionmedium
9E EXO scores 7 more and is much more defensive, but tanks my next turn bingo%; Quackle actually wants the other placement of OXO at 9H, giving up a few more points to Bob but also maxing out my chances of bingoing. Really close options, at most a #tacticssmall
I put some thought into this and F4 PARLE. PARLE reduces opponent's average score by 9 over this. If scorinig defense were equal, QAI(D) would be the right play. However, I grossly undervalued defense again here. #strategymedium
glad I didn't see GLITCHED (apparently not a word??) and let the phony go, definitely would have played it.
GLID/GILD K5, would have played that. #findingSAD
N6 EAU sims pretty well for something that's so scary. I like 9G A(R)EA. I guess with the former I set up my M and with the latter I score some points. Thinking this might be a #strategysadder
Only four possible racks from the unseen tiles yield bingos: EEINRSS, EEIORSS, EENORSS, and EINORSS. PI blocks EEINRSS and EINORSS at N7, but I had not seen that Carl could play 9H ROSERIES or 10H SORENESS. N7 PADRI, RAPT, or RIANT or 9H RITARD blocks all possible bingos. #findingsmall
H1 INfAUNA(E) #KNOWLEDGESADDEST and a big old "what was I thinking?" because I spaced out and thought I had a T. It took me until walking over to the challenge computer to realize that I never had a T and I'm just stupid.
2J BLE(A)T is 17 fewer points but reduces the opponent's next turn score by about 6 and increases my next turn score by about 13, apparently. This makes it sim about 2 points better. #strategysad
I mean at this point, the 8 more unseen Is are a problem, so I think that B12 GUL should have been the play to minimize my odds of a bad draw. It is simming at the top with O1 GUSTO to take out the dangerous WANDS hook. #findingsmall
I probably need to do something like N9 MALT and hope to draw the S and threaten unblockable bingos. I kept thinking that she must've been keeping 3 vowels with her last fish but she could easily be keeping just 2 which makes N9 MALT best I think. I was going for MARTLET with this fish here. #strategysaddest
giving him ES as a leave. i also have to assume that he doesn't know BANDA (for the purposes of getting lucky, i mean). matt did a similar play to this one a few weeks ago and i lost because i didn't block it. in this case, my rack is so garbage that quackle thinks i should mostly ignore it and try to clean up my rack. he probably won't bingo - the bag kind of sucks, but there's big tiles out there so his next score is going to suck for me. the main problem with ID is that it only reduces his average score by about 13 next turn (from 61 to 48), which is not enough to warrant making such a bad sacrifice on my end. so this situation is not at all similar to the one two weeks ago, when i actually had a great block. i really should have done some math here and realized ID was bad. 13K IRID is the play -- -7.5 #strategymedium
This actually isn't paranoid nor confident enough and there are some really unlucky things that can happen here. The play here is HEM 14m, as there's no 3x3s, you have a pretty much guaranteed score, if Jackson blocks it's game over, and if he plays/bingos elsewhere you can get 50. Yes, losing here requires some horrible draws, but this just doesn't prepare well enough. #strategymedium
super interesting choice between D1 ZO(E)A and this. How dangerous is the H1 spot? He took a while to play JOG, does that mean he doesn't have an A or E? I think my gut was really wrong here and I should have played ZO(E)A. In my opinion this is #tacticsmedium but Quackle says it's a 1-point mistake. Quackle has zero hindsight obviously. Jack was setting himself up under JO.
I had well under a minute here and the fastest math I could do indicated that this move would win without needing to risk CASTLINGS (I scored it right but added it wrong) - it turned out that it actually tied instead. Then I insisted on recounting the game, even after Bradley offered me a tie, and discovered multiple plays I had overscored, and ended up losing by 3. Tough loss, but I've had worse. #endgamelarge
-3 exch R actually sims ok, although DOR sims better on 4-ply. main problem with DOR is that it's relatively easy to block and i only hold one hook for it. i thought of GRIND as well but didn't consider -R. #strategysmall
Hide your eyes, folks. Missing OR(Y)X until a few seconds after I hit my clock. The big issue was that I don't see the word ORYX quickly enough. The next big issue is that I was concerned that I drew RUX to my bingo leave. The next smaller issue is that I played too quickly. This is a bush-league error that puts me back over 30 points, the leave of ERRSU being a few points worse than ERSU despite hitting a few more bingos. #findinglarge
i should have just played VIPER at 8A. i keep the Z to score next turn. i thought she was less likely to have a bingo through the O, after what could be a vowel dump. quackle likes 15A UP keeping VIZOR for next turn. -7 #strategymedium
whenever i have the option to overlap the same word above and below, i ALWAYS pick the wrong one. i don't know why the simmer likes the top one so much better (almost 4 pts??). help? #tacticsmedium
7F GOEL# is the clear best play, as it preserves the closed position and keeps the best possible leave, including an S to hook onto AUA# or LUV. #strategymedium
I used my astounding and unfathomable knowledge of the leave values to correctly determine that H1 LIMA is better than H1 DIME and I am vindicated by the engine analysis which evaluates H1 LIMA as 0.1 equity better. Also, I completely missed G6 ID(E)M which is the best play #visionsad
I was ready to play UNTENTED despite being unsure, but he gave me an A to play through, and I decided to make a big sacrifice to play something I was sure of. Once I played TAUTENED I started getting a bit pissed off at myself. I had been convinced UNTENTED was valid, but was more like 70% beforehand. 30% of the time I lose way too much to justify not taking around a 10 point sacrifice, but this assumes Seth will always know. Once again intimidated by the word knowledge, to a fault. Seth was likely to have challenged this, as he demonstrated when I asked him about UNTENTED after the game. #knowledgeSADDEST
i really find it impossible that i lose after this play unless he has a 6 with -oke. piquet is an option i did not see and pretty much outruns any bngos -10 #findingmedium
I didn't have to phony here. I saw TOKENING but it looked awful, and missed everything else. KENoT(R)ON is a word I was not familiar with, and it plays for 94! I also had NEKTON(I)c. #knowledgelarge
Thought this was a good phony though. I chose the more volatile spot because it was less likely to get challenged if it meant leaving big spots open.
B3 BUNKIE is better; I didn't know the word. The pool is strong, and BUNKIE unloads all my bad tiles while scoring only one point fewer. #knowledgesmall
AGINT better than EGINT, that's news to me. I'm heading nowhere in this position without an S, though if he bingos first (which I would prefer to prevent) it will often give me a commeback. FEH sims 4 points higher, gotta trust that #tacticssmall
It felt like I couldn't do much of anything on this board. Indeed, I shouldn't do much of anything: the two best plays are exchange NT and I8 (FAA)N. ANCE# takes many front hooks, and the N which I keep is not one. :( #strategymedium
What do I block, 15H sELENIC/sILENCE or O1 SILICONEs? Quackle says neither, that 14A UNS and many other plays outrun. I decided to block sELENIC/sILENCE, I think because it scores more and is easier to find than SILICONEs. However, my block for sELENIC/sILENCE scores only 3 points, and if Matt has sELENIC/sILENCE he also has L4 ELENChI. Also O1 SILENCINg, L4 CaNNOLI, and 4G LYCOpENE and sYNCLINE exist. In order to block all bingos except sELENIC/sILENCE/ELENChI, I would have to play three or more tiles on row 3 spanning from 3L to 3N, but it is impossible to do that without allowing another bingo starting from 3M. In short, blocking bingos isn't worth it, and 14A UNS saving F4 FLEW is best. #tacticslarge
L12 L(I)T(U) is best, scoring while leaving 1 in the bag and keeping good enough tiles to outrun most bingos. I think the only sequence that doesn't win for me after L12 L(I)T(U) is O2 SAKERET -> D1 MERCY -> J10 (OO)S, which is a tie. I did not think CAULDS was valid so I didn't think I could lose here. #knowledgesaddest #strategysaddest
13C D(E)NCH #knowledgesadder also 11B CH(I)LD is a better version of L(I)CHT. I really struggled here because I had basically no way to block a bingo from coming down (apart from if I find CHILD)
saw TUNNY and RUNNY but not RUNTY, which is what I would have chosen. I knew EIT was worse than EIR but felt the R in UNDERLIE gave the leave a nice boost. However, if I had seen that there were many T's to duplicate, I wouldn't have made this decision. Who knows if I ever would have spotted RUNTY. This was overthinking and bad playfinding. #findingsmall
I feel that I had the right idea by doing this over M7 OLEO given the 24 consonants and only 12 vowels unseen, but I think M5 LOOM might be a slightly better version of this just because I get to hang onto my E, although I am scoring 2 more points here and it's not possible to close down the board just yet. LOOM does edge out MOLE in the sim. #strategysmall
3G PRODDERS is the bingo that he just had to take out! PEDRO in the same spot does sim better than this understandably because I have the S. That's a miss. #findingbad
Knowing that Cesar still has ESS on his rack makes this a tough decision. Quackle being Quackle, it still takes the points with the 14H placement. (-4?) #strategysmall
But the sacrifice was worth it, as (alas) my 93-point JETES was blocked. Quackle picks 1A EME, blocking 1A and ensuring that my M scores well while saving D6 JEST or J10 JETS. #tacticsmedium
terrible word knowledge continues. I put down STINGE and AIDE, and then take it back, and put this down. Joel says "you weren't going to play that." UGH!!! #knowledgeSADDEST
i did see XEBE(C), but it's just.. you know, that seems like the only realistic way to lose now, even though i can't think of an 8-letter word with X in 4th position. #strategysmall
I chose REAL over ORAL because there were 7 E's unseen and no O's. But I did not consider what the benefit of keeping the O would be, and now that I am considering it I don't see any significant benefit; EE > EO, and even triplicate E's are fine. I should just play ORAL. Quackle prefers C12 NOR but that's ridiculous with IIIM unseen. #strategymedium
so bad!!!! I had Z(E)STED for 14 more! I also don't want to block the L's just in case I draw a blank and she blank bingos on row 15, leaving me nowhere to go in a hole I dug myself! #findingsmall