I think that if I'm going to go with a board that is open enough to potentially benefit me but still leave the left side of the board blocked off, I think M2 DOGNAP(S) is a better version of this play as it doesn't expose as many floaters with QUIZ being in the way. Doing 9H GA(Z)ED, which I didn't even see, is defensive in the short term, but it would eventually defeat the purpose of doing VALINES in the first place. #findingsmall
i'm too chicken to leave that lane open too much longer. i don't know, i always struggle to call these big mistakes because i purposely chose to block a lane given his last play. i suppose i should look at the pool, he may be consonant heavy after his last play VOE so maybe i should just play FONTAL for 14 more and take consonants. if he bingoes after AFOOT, i didn't score enough to outrun it. AFOOT only cuts his avg score by 1.5. -7.5 #strategymedium
weird spot. this isn't ideal since it's harder to trade bingos now. Stuff will play on the C column down to the 12th row and it's a lot harder to hook bingos on the B column up than down given how the English language works. So this doesn't do a good job at trading bingos, but it's such good equity. I recognized that I probably wasn't Q-sticking no matter what. Quackle suggested ET instead, which doesn't run into the same problem with allowing stuff down to C12, since there's only one R for REH#. But the main difference is that we just bingo a lot more to begin with. RE(ADO)UT is the other suggestion. I like ET. #tacticssmall
N9 ICE #endgamesad
I went over time so we tied with the scores that we had (376-376). There was no recount (I would have lost by 1 point had there been one).
N10 BEG sims best against a random rack, but after 9K S(O) and the available pool, it seems extremely likely that he has another S. It seemed like the game would be over if I play N10 BEG and he bingos on the O column or even just plays there with his S and I'm holding the Q. I thought my best shot was to to throw the Q back (holding consonants because I thought the bag seemed slightly vowel heavy) and hope he draws it after his N column bingo and I respond with an 1H bingo or column O bingo. However, even simming against the best possible racks, N10 BEG is winning every time. It's probably partly because he is unlikely to be holding a U, which gives me a good chance of drawing a U after N10 BEG. But even with AENQU??, I'm not sure how I can ever win after a column O play. #strategysaddest
Lynn's last play of EVE told me there's a good chance she's holding onto the last N. I was admittedly turned off by this draw of 2 more Us after already playing off 1 of them. 6F (Q)UAG is fine. #findingmedium
wasted a lot of time here and didn't even find all the plays. NEWB is there as well as WREN (I saw WREN but not NEWB), BR(E)W I didn't even consider, but I don't like it. Not sure what is right here, but I am sure that I overscored this by 2 and Joey called me on it, and 2 points is a lot. B(U)RGER might just be the play at E7. I was trying to get a blowout here also, since if Karl beat Mack, I would have to have beaten Joey by more. I was hoping that my insolence wouldn't cost me the game, so there was a lot of pressure. This is probably a bit much especially since I'm trying to win by a lot. #strategysmall
should not go out. -15 to just dropping the blank G at J10. Funny because I set myself up to do a better-than-optimal endgame with KAE. #endgameSADDEST
Played the correct move of DZO and then picked it up for just ZO; it's better to play DZO and then play my M atop CRUOR next turn. For the third straight game I was extremely low on time, didn't record it for these last few moves. #endgamelarge
When do I learn that I should never keep two or more I's? And I'm not ahead by enough that I should be paranoid about row 15. K8 MOIRAI is best. #strategymedium
glad I didn't see GLITCHED (apparently not a word??) and let the phony go, definitely would have played it.
GLID/GILD K5, would have played that. #findingSAD
3B RA(V) setting up J*GGLE* bingos sims way better than anything else. He might blockwith plays on 2A more than the sim does, but I think it's probably still best. #strategysaddest
11I RAJA is best equity but given the game situation I wanted to play a bit more aggressively and keep lines open. However, something in between like 11K JA keeping a slightly better leave seems best here. #strategysad
errrr QI is straightforward here. i thought it just destroyed the board though, but BILGED probably does a better job of that! probably a hard move, but it feels so tough to play QI and then not have anywhere to play my bingo next turn. at least BILGED gives me a chance at a dump like QIS for 41, etc. -4 #strategymedium ?
I probably missed the spot for QUIRTED here. Actually I think I chickened out? Though UUUU? is out, still probably worth it? It's hard for him to fish for a big QU play, especially if I could just draw a U. #findinglarge
I am aware that Arie has played plenty of Collins games before. I needed to call this off, and I didn't. That's a big mistake since ASWING# is only valid in Collins. #knowledgesad
I tunneled on fishing for 8A NON(QUOTA). Instead, since I don't have a good play using the U, I should keep column D open. J6 WOON# is best, but I didn't know (HEBE)N#; F6 WO(OH)OO# is second. #knowledgemedium
Very panicky. I was low on time and did not realize that triple-triples were unlikely with this pool. D1 LATRINE is fine. On the other hand, Moiz was very low on time and making a drawn out endgame will be favorable. #strategysaddest
this is an absolutely huge swing. I'm a favourite if I don't challenge, but I was completely tilted at this point and I didn't want him to be winning. It seemed almost inconceivable that this would be a word. #knowledgelarge
ERUV scores well, unloads two of UVV, and blocks the easiest lane on the board, row 13. Naturally, Quackle hates it. There is something to be said for Quackle's picks, B2 VUM and K1 VENDU, namely that they both save a scoring play at 1K (DRAVE and VARVE respectively). Honorable mention goes to G13 VUm, which scores only 9 points but blocks row 13 while saving 1K DRAVE. #tacticsmedium
Well, this wins every time, as I calculated, but according to Quackle this is the worst play that does. It calls for 12B TOEA, which does look pretty good, keeping two consonants. #strategymedium
(R)IP might be the play here. I bingo a bit more than after TIPI. (H)ILI is also nice to make a better lane, I bingo quite a bit. this is a bit too closed and doesn't bingo quite enough #findingsmall
If HU* (or Hofstra University, my alma mater) was good, 10G THION(I)NE still plays!! However, G3 HON is fine even with all those Es left. #strategymedium
Yeah ugh this was difficult. On the one hand JOB C1 just looks like the play. Creates a big spot but blocks the likelier lane, and scores better than GOJI. But I got worried about him fishing for JEZAIL or having it. That's not really enough for him to win though, so I shouldn't have worried #tacticssmall
At this point I am very low on time and proceed to absolutely blow the game for this turn and the nex. This is technically winning, but it's way harder for a human to play, especially with no time. L4 AE is best. #TIMESADDEST
I always underestimate how much more bingo-prone the I is than the A. I felt that AD had enough synergy over DI that ADES was the better leave, but the difference in scoring isn't that great and DEIS bingoes a few percent more than ADES. ex AE also bingoes more than both, which I find kinda surprising cause I felt ADEIS was one of the worse 3v2c leaves, since the D is less flexible than stuff like the LNRT tiles. Ofc that's with no inference in the sim, Joey will restrict my bingo% more after an x2. I'm willing to say this is a #tacticssmall since I doubted DEIS too much. IDEA or AIDE are okay optimally, but it's pretty close, and my plan against joey is definitely not to play either of those plays, giving back a lot more in score and bingoes. even optimally I tend towards exchanging.
realized my thought process was flawed after I made this play. I have to hope Jason has the worst rack ever here. So if I do that, then I don't want to let him be allowed to exchange next turn. Which is why I didn't play CUE 11J. But I can actually win if he exchanges, even when it throws bad letters into the pool. That's something I might need to hope for. #strategyquestionable
The Duck says there is a 1/8 chance of winning after this play but I'm pretty sure it's lying to me because I went through every endgame and it never has me winning. So, since I'm pretty sure there is no win, I have to hope he screws up. This play fishes for 15D DISU(N)ITE but he's probably going to see that and block. I need to play something like O11 Y(OWIE) to hit the M because he is probably less likely to see 2G D(I)MITIES. If Quackle is actually correct about the 1/8 please let me know, but for now #strategymedium