M7 TRON sims best, gives me the chance to draw a vowel finally, but i didn't want to play anything obstructing the 11L G. Kinda silly now that I think about it, because it's pretty improbable that I can bingo through there and M7 TRON actually gives me a lane for a 7. idk. this might be a #strategysaddest
L12 L(I)T(U) is best, scoring while leaving 1 in the bag and keeping good enough tiles to outrun most bingos. I think the only sequence that doesn't win for me after L12 L(I)T(U) is O2 SAKERET -> D1 MERCY -> J10 (OO)S, which is a tie. I did not think CAULDS was valid so I didn't think I could lose here. #knowledgesaddest #strategysaddest
Quackle despises this, but I think it's fine - GOO isn't a good leave but the PLAYMATES spot is quite dangerous and IDEAL does as good a job of blocking it as I can while scoring a lot in the process. I saw GEOIDAL but it leaves lots of stuff like ZEES there and also puts an A in a dangerous spot at K8. Maybe a #strategysmall, but I still think my play is ideal.
almost played ANNO(Y), which would have blocked RALLYE unwittingly. I wanted to block REFRAINS stuff, which is obviously far less of a factor given RALLYE. I thought this did a good job outrunning 14E plays. I could play EAU at L11 to also block the dangerous REFRAINS hook as well as scoring plays to the Y, but I was more worried about getting outrun from 53 ahead instead of 62 ahead, and that would allow Jackson time to play something on the N column like OE maybe, since EAU protects that sort of opening. #visionsaddest for RALLYE again.
great play for Mina to make me totally freak out. i figured she for sure had a T, and maybe both Ts. i didn't think she'd have the blank, but it's possible. REFI# sims terrible; if i infer ET? for her it does go up a bit, but it's still too meek. i almost laid down 2B FLOOD, but my worry was that she'd just score a lot up there, and save her T for next turn. i have a lot of trouble when other players do stuff like this against me. quackle likes ignoring it and playing FOLIO at 2A (which is also actually a weak block sometimes), i considered this as well and was just worried about opening up another big bingo lane - but then again, maybe you do want to do this when you're up to decrease volatility (if there is a big bingo lane open, and you open another one, your variance in score difference after two plies goes down, and this is what you want when you're ahead by a bingo). -11.5 #strategylarge #niceplaybun
wow this is awful! I def overestimated EEESX and underestimated EIQ. Us are out, I have QI as backup, and QUIN? plays at the bottom right can hit hard. M1 EXES looks like the play here. I also didn't realize K6 QI is better than this cause I set up EXES next turn for 51!! well worth the 2 point sacrifice, but EXES still kills that in a sim #tacticslarge
2nd best play, but a distant 2nd. This is where I could have used the WORM extension INCH(WORM) for 66. I clearly did not think of the extensions that could have come into play with my placement. #visionsad
I think 3I WUD could have been done here to open up a 2nd lane. The extra points immediately were not worth it. Gotta love new themes sometimes, right? That's the beauty of Scrabble. #visionmeh
Hm. I recognized that 1) 3/4 u's were already gone 2) no good Q spots exist before or after this play but I don't think I ever considered just dropping the Q. I don't know that Matt can really afford to make up all that equity with a specific block at 3I, but he can definitely try. I just don't even think I considered Q(I) played at 10L. This is the best chance I'll likely get to get rid of the Q without significant lucking. FILET also sims better, so this cannot be the right play, and FILER too, of course. #strategymedium
INTU is clearly a better leave than ETU but i think 7G WAIN sims best partially because i can bingo through the N? i'm not totally sure. my bingo % goes up after it. #tacticssmall
an unaggressive, lame move. BOW at H13 is probably better. but BROWS/CROWS at 14B for 39 pts is best. i didn't even bother counting the score. i think if i had counted it i would have realized that's the play i want to make. it's really really hard to focus when you're 1-5. i was probably on autopilot trying to keep the RS combo etc. instead of thinking about the game situation. -8.5 #strategylarge
i spent too long on this play. i disagree with 13L HON. come on, man. i know i have a good leave for it, but who makes plays like that when up this much? however, NOH in that spot is probably better than my play. -4 #tacticsmedium
well he blocked my much better spot for INK. i don't know why i didn't play AKIN at 11K though; that blocks up pretty much everything and seals the game. I think i was worried about an UN- bingo but that's unlikely with the pool. i feel like a lot of these mistakes are just purposeful choices and i'm not weighing the probabilities properly. there is probably something i can infer from LA. -10 #strategylarge
The other options are terrible so this block isn't actually that bad. Sim is saying G13 (P)IU is the only other viable option, but I didn't want to give back big 15F Q plays. Those probably aren't a concern though since I'm ahead by enough to only have to worry about bingos. #strategysmall
9H (ZA)G actually sims best here. Really cool fish. I was unsure of THANGS and would rather have played THANGS or (T)HANG over this. #strategylarge #knowledgesaddest
unfortunately I took 4-5 minutes here making sure there was no 3x3, and didn't count how much a play would score at 13B. TINHORn scores 3 more than my bingos to the C. #findingsmall. ORNITHIC was more defensive but I was only 80% sure of it or so. #knowledgesmall
-3 exch R actually sims ok, although DOR sims better on 4-ply. main problem with DOR is that it's relatively easy to block and i only hold one hook for it. i thought of GRIND as well but didn't consider -R. #strategysmall
I'm more than a bingo behind and I'm not comfortable fishing because there's not a lotta places to bingo AND my opponent's gonna block them. 14I LARIAT also accomplishes the task of just scoring to keep the spread down. #knowledgesad for not knowing LARIAT
quackle doesn't like this very much. even though i block way more bingos with my play, 5D VEXIL scores more and keeps AS. also, trains can bingo up top, and it doesn't bingo THAT often (about 60% if i leave the bottom open). #visionlarge -9.5
Was trying to safely block ZAG plays but for some reason couldn't come up with 13F SEN or 13A RUNES. At least my move wins the game. #endgamemedium 1:15
Nope, need to just use one vowel here, big mistake. Spending my N absolutely torpedos my bingo%. Unfortunately, Neither RETINE or ORIENT hit the F from 1H very often. Also, if I was going to play two tiles ON is better than EN by a fair margin. #tacticsmedium bordering on large, the plays sim pretty close but I think the error is larger than that. 10:13
yeah, i need to consider equity a bit more robotically. WAUR/WAUL at 13G score too much to disregard. i know they keep ILU or IRU, but that's 11 pts better than keeping a W, and giving back slightly more bingos. -7.5 #strategymedium. it's funny, two fairly significant strategic errors in a row, but i did think it through at least.
i didn't spot the J14 GYP spot, and at this point i'm pretty unfocused. gotta work on focusing in all situations. since a loss here will make me 1-2 in the early bird so far, it was tough to stay positive, given how i lost the last game! This is a great example of how one lost moment of focus costs one the game. The most elite players make the right play here - it is essential to keep the V to score at 8D, so the best plays should actually keep EV. that makes YEN even better. In the main event, I had a somewhat similar situation, but at that point I was significantly more concentrated and I think I made the right decision. -16 #visionlarge
I did not know 11D TACHIST(E). Funny thing is, I can substitute the T with an M for TACHISME, which has 3 anagrams. This is the best nonbingo play, but still, #knowledgelarge.
Only four possible racks from the unseen tiles yield bingos: EEINRSS, EEIORSS, EENORSS, and EINORSS. PI blocks EEINRSS and EINORSS at N7, but I had not seen that Carl could play 9H ROSERIES or 10H SORENESS. N7 PADRI, RAPT, or RIANT or 9H RITARD blocks all possible bingos. #findingsmall
I overestimated how big this spot I was setting up was, his average goes waaaay up. making this lane probahbly helps me a bit, I end up bingoing as much after PUB as u fishes like PIU, but yeah PUB just gives him a much bigger spot on a subpar scoring board. PIU or PRAUS seem okay here. I would probably do PIU. #tacticsmedium
Keep the L. The fact that the pool is consonant-heavy doesn't merit playing a guaranteed consonant for one point. Actually K5 SPILITE is best; ??SSS are unseen and my leave after JIHADI isn't that great. #strategymedium
J2 V(I)N and 6D V(IF)F sim best here. I liked H2 G(U)V because it killed the top part of the board and H1 plays by Austin create long term problems for board control. The equity is just too bad though, and a two consonant draw is devastating. H2 F(U)NG is a better version of this idea (since I get another shot at a vowel) but still bad. #strategylarge
this is very bad for preventing bingos, given his last move. i was thinking i can't win without drawing the blank here. while that's still likely, if i play COAPT at 14G that scores quite a bit and maybe i can draw an H or something to score next turn. i don't know. but COPAL is wrong. Quackle likes 10K COAPT best, i don't really get it. -10.5 #strategylarge
RIP, completely forgot to consider AHOLDS being valid, which I knew. SMUGGER wins. I made some insane calculation that this would tie if she saw (YE)TI 12A setting up (N)IDI and I blocked with G(I) D14, but she was low on time and I hoped that wouldn't be found. Quackle can't even find that sequence because it's so weird (and just flat-out wrong). Somehow didn't think of NIDI first. Oops. Also, just (YE)GG which I didn't have time to calculate wins as well, since she can't block oMeRS and go out in two and will lose by at the least 1 point! If she blocks the 3rd and 1st row with ID 1K, I win after (WIZ)aRdS and M(E) F14 since she isn't going out. Horrible miss on my part to finish a crazy game. If I play QUERYING first here, she can play I1 D(O) and just outrun me. #findingsaddest #endgamesaddest
playing on the 7 row makes a lot of sense here to block X plays like RAX 7K and J/X plays making IKAT. I like 7K GAT upon reflection. I now misread my pevious indicated score of 389 as 387, so 409. instead of 417. #strategymedium
come on. i have to fake open the board (PARETICS is obviously available but he might catch on if i don't try to open another lane?). E8 AFIRE is beautiful though, i should have seen it. #findingmedium -2.5
EB: 2B BI(L)BY or L11 ABBEY instead -- I figured that the board was dead enough that I shouldn't give him the only spot to score. Sim thinks I'm on the right track but the point diff is just too much. #knowledgesad
Definitely questionable. I didn't like 5I MOTLIEr or MOTILEs, but I did not see 11G T(O)ILsOME, which is definitely safer knowing there's 3 Ss left, and Robin didn't seem to hesitate burning an S with DUNTS. #findinglarge