Finding Small
J2 JOHN +36
Q actually recommends SOH at J8 for 42 points here. I suppose it holds JEAN at J2 next turn. This and JEON are neck and neck, I suppose it's a matter of how volatile I want next turn to be #findingsad
Howard Pistol vs. Matt Canik (Game 32980)
Vision Medium
exch ABLQA +0
BALED 4A is the obvious move here. I saw BALED on my rack and just didn't look for a place for it. Also exchanging AQ is probably better too. #visionSADDER #strategy#SADDER
Danielle Barker vs. Maureen Clifford (Game 33545)
Strategy Large
10F J(E)T +26
big error, and I didn't properly find my options here. My thought process was very much focused on JET, and I really remember kinda pretending to myself that I was looking for other options when I was really just excited to play JET cause it felt so good. I want to not make these sort of excitement errors in the future, and truly look for other options. I think I was temporarily unaware of the SEGO threat or something, because once I notice that longterm threat I should be less satisfied with JET. JIB(E)R is absolutely the play here. Not only cause PLT is better than BILPR on this board (more flexibility, not as many problem consonant racks), JIBER takes out the SEGO spot which will be a bitch to block, and the recursive threat will let joey wait for a big play there. #strategylarge even though I didn't find the play, it was based on being unaware of the threat, and JIBER isn't hard to come up with once the threat is noticed
Jackson Smylie vs. Joey Krafchick (Game 34915)
Knowledge Large
15B ETIoLA(T)E +58
There is a nine starting at 5C (answer on next turn). I did not know the word. Every other bingo plays at 15B. Of these, ETIoLATE, LATErITE, and LITErATE score 58 but have front hooks (I thought of PETIoLATE afterward), and LEvITATE scores 57 without a front hook. Thus LEvITATE is second best, after the nine. #knowledgelarge
Michael Early vs. Alec Sjoholm (Game 32984)
Strategy Small
2J PED +22
i did consider G10 DUNG but i didn't want to open it up for him after his last play or two. his rack kind of smelled of blanks (i can smell them) and i thought i should keep it a bit closed. i maybe could play H1 GNAR too, or 5M GOD or something. either way, i'm in decent shape. -3.5 #strategysmall
Cesar Del Solar vs. Jay Levin (Game 33682)
Knowledge Large
2C SAVELOY +0 (Lost challenge)
Will blocked LAYOVERS, and with nothing to lose but spread, I decided to check whether HUNTABLE takes an S. O1 SYLVAE has the highest valuation. #knowledgelarge
Will Anderson vs. Alec Sjoholm (Game 32902)
Tactics Medium
12H ICI(E)R +16
I saw O10 IRITIC, and I should have played it. IRITIC blocks column O, one of the higher-scoring bingo lanes on the board, and partially blocks row 12. The reason I played ICIER is that it fully blocks rows 12 and 13, the easiest bingo lanes. But it sacrifices 13 points, W > ITW, and I can easily outrun most row 13 bingos. #tacticsmedium
Jeff Fiszbein vs. Alec Sjoholm (Game 32987)
Strategy Small
12C (AWA)RD +9
Will: Burned all the rest of my time here. I considered AWARN, AWARD, HARDLINE, HARDLINER, and N10 IDLER/ELDIN. HARDLINER attempts to luck into an outbingo that Josh can't block by playing parallel to HARDLINER, and also might luck into ZQ draws (HARDLINER makes a big Q spot). Maybe I draw something to the I and play it after he blocks the R, for example. Amazingly AWARD bingos 35% to AWARN's 11%, though the usual caveat applies that those numbers are going to be lower than Quackle thinks because Josh is going to seek to lower them. I'm just amazed at that disparity. My problem with IDLER, which looks good at first glance, is that any parallel play putting a difficult letter on row 15 is basically game over; there's no space left. At least after AWARD there's both row 13 and the Y of DAVY. I kinda wish I did HARDLINER now just for the lulz. #strategysmall
Joshua Castellano vs. Will Anderson (Game 34612)
Strategy Large
14F FLARERS +0 (Lost challenge)
yeah really bad decision here. I usually don't like phonying with stuff where you know what the definition would be, but the doubt is on whether it is included. I feel like people are usually more likely to challenge cause they don't give you as much blind trust as if you plop down some crazy shit. If I didn't have (A)RF available then this decision would be more okay, but I had already talked myself into playing FLARERS and playing it quickly, so when TOO came down I still just went with my decision, but it's so much better to just play ARF. #strategylarge
Jackson Smylie vs. Tom Bond (Game 33106)
Tactics Small
11D UVUL(A)E +18
perhaps L2 OVULE instead? This was a stylistic choice to try and limit the left side as much as possible. After a play comes down at 12A though, who knows if I can keep it up. #tacticssmall`
Cesar Del Solar vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 32713)
Vision Medium
4H PI(L)OT +30
PITOT 10J is better, once again because F2 (A: 10J?) is such a big spot. Also better is TIPTOED 13C, breaking up the unpalatable DS combo. (-3.5) #visionmedium
Alec Sjoholm vs. Carl Johnson (Game 34492)
Tactics Small
J10 C(O)DEX +37
considered CODE and ZAX as well, but I liked keeping more bingo chances and opening a new lane. D(E)X bingoes more than CODEX by a couple percent! I do like opening a lane with CODEX though so he can't kill everything with agene. #tacticssmall
Jackson Smylie vs. Charles Reinke (Game 33126)
Tactics Medium
H7 R(I)B +9
Setting up my C and fishing, for lack of a better idea. But now if Tom plays a bingo hooking to make CRIB or DRIB, he can close the board at the same time; the bingo lanes before RIB (columns C, H, and J) all create floaters. G8 MIB is best. #tacticsmedium
Tom Bond vs. Alec Sjoholm (Game 32991)
Finding Medium
L4 IF +15
many terrible choices here. i regret not playing 13J FIZ. i didn't think of it - only thought of FRIZ. need to generate more plays and be better at it. my IF opens a lane but blocks the E. -3.5 #findingmedium
Jonathan Kent vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 32934)
Strategy Small
C11 (Z)OON +28
now this is a mistake. playing ZOO would just work out better. i didn't want to keep two Ns but i have a good chance of using one the next turn if not bingoing outright. ugh! -2 #strategysmall
Jay Levin vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 32939)
Tactics Small
I2 OWIE +29
I actually average more next turn after OWIES than OWIE! since I am opening the board it seems. She averages 5 more after OWIES but that doesn't cover the difference in score. That's kinda surprising but I guess it makes sense...? the S isn't amazing here. A bit confusing cause often you don't want to open the board cause they get a lot more benefit than you, but I guess here I'm making a scoring spot after OWIE. #tacticssmall
Jackson Smylie vs. Marcela Kadanka (Game 35365)
Tactics Small
L1 HOED +30
was worried about a worst case scenario J play down L1 here followed by a bingo. I should probably let that worry go and play K3 EDH. #tacticssmall
Joshua Sokol vs. Joey Mallick (Game 32721)
Strategy Small
15A YEW +34
ROT is a T setup, but it's actually a QATS setup. if i infer EST for him (reasonable, although HAH doesn't necessarily imply the S, he did play it fast enough), YEW does a little better than before, but still not as well as M9 WANEY - i need to keep a better leave. i wasn't ultra worried because the bag is very slightly consonant heavy but still i may have overreacted here. -3 #strategysmall
Jon Shreve vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 35383)
Finding Large
G7 pAYOUTs +66
I spent over 7 minutes on this turn and couldn't find any double-doubles. Two blanks are too hard for a feeble mind like mine. There were four 2x2s. Gah this was horrible #findingsaddest #knowledgesaddest
Charles Reinke vs. Matt Canik (Game 33041)
Tactics Medium
G8 (D)EE +14
This is the best equity play, but I was sad about partially blocking RHUMBA. In fact I should have sacrificed two points to preserve RHUMBA with 9E EME. #tacticsmedium
R Scott Smith vs. Alec Sjoholm (Game 33769)
Strategy Small
14B QU(O)D +28
QUODS is better: it scores 6 more points, and my rack is full of consonants, making the S less worth keeping. K4 VELD is interesting, setting up 8K SQUAB or SQUIB with the right draw. #strategysmall
Kenji Matsumoto vs. Alec Sjoholm (Game 33090)
Strategy Large
K3 BLUN(T) +14
i didn't see ANNUL, i did see ANN but didn't like keeping a U -- but even ANN sims a lot better than BLUNT. i think ANNUL/ANN are nice because of the defense, BLUNT gives up more pts. -8 #strategylarge
Mina Le vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 35123)
Strategy Small
8E AGAVE +18
I thought that the leave for 8G VAX was too vowel heavy and guaranteeing and X spot would be worth it. But this caps my score next turn at around 30-something and bings a lot less, and is also less defensive. It probably isn't that different but in hindsight 8G VAX seems a bit better. #strategysmall
Joshua Castellano vs. Tim Weiss (Game 32559)
Strategy Large
11M HAM +17
There are no great options and his last play indicated a strong range (yes, I know, even for Dan the Destroyer). 11M HAM is best for reducing bing %, but M5 MAHUA(S) also significantly reduces bing % and sets up my X. After UN, he probably doesn't have a Y (or B), which is the only thing he could really use at 6N. This makes M5 MAHUA(S) best IMHO. #strategylarge
Daniel Milton vs. Joshua Castellano (Game 34777)
Finding Medium
3I GI(M)ME +24
I am in awful shape already, just because I gave him that C to play through. L3 MITE was misse, and I didn't know GIMMIE. #findingmedium
Bryn Bowen vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 35774)
Strategy Medium
F10 L(A)VA +15
14D ULVA is a nice play. i saw it, and passed on it because there's a lot of big tiles left and he can just score there and outrun me (GOUTY or something). but maybe i should do this, so that i have a good scoring spot myself. maybe i don't have much choice. quackle likes ULVA a lot. i think the main point should be to try to find a winning line. what do i have after LAVA? nothing. after ULVA, i get to draw for a big play somewhere, leave 1 in the bag, and then maybe win that way. #strategymedium
Cesar Del Solar vs. Matt Graham (Game 32681)
Tactics Large
B6 KUE +22
N11 TIKE dominates the sim, winning 73%, and I have no idea why--it scores 26, but it keeps EUU and makes a higher-scoring (though less useful) bingo line on column O, which should in theory prevent me from outscoring if Mitch has a bingo (54%). 7K ETUI, Championship Player's pick and second place on the sim (63% win), allows the fewest bingos (40%) and keeps a leave that can outscore most plays that aren't bingos. Thus I think ETUI is best. KUE does not block column N at all and is thus significantly worse. #tacticslarge
Mitch Bayersdorfer vs. Alec Sjoholm (Game 33630)
Strategy Medium
J13 (A)ZO +32
i should have just played VIPER at 8A. i keep the Z to score next turn. i thought she was less likely to have a bingo through the O, after what could be a vowel dump. quackle likes 15A UP keeping VIZOR for next turn. -7 #strategymedium
Cesar Del Solar vs. Leesa Berahovich (Game 35170)
Finding Medium
N9 DILUTE +25
N5 DUELLI is beautiful. DILUTE isn't that great. it actually slightly raises his bingo percentage, even though i'm trying to block an easy 7 lane. -3 #findingmedium #knowledgemedium #strategymedium
Cesar Del Solar vs. Bruce D Ambrosio (Game 32699)
Finding Small
F4 QAI(D) +16
2B AECIA is best, unloading vowels and occasionally drawing into 1A QAT with four T's unseen. I seem to never find AECIA, especially when I am distracted by the Q on my rack. #findingsmall
Alec Sjoholm vs. Noah Walton (Game 33574)
Strategy Small
C3 HO +24
i like this move, but quackle thinks just dropping the H is fine. apparently i bingo close to 89% of the time when i do that! definitely sounds a bit high, since i don't hit bingos with the B or R, and he's going to block some percentage of the time. so i'm not sure. anyway, i didn't see that many possible bingos, and wanted to keep the F for scoring at O4. #strategysmall ?
Cesar Del Solar vs. Seth Lipkin (Game 33831)
Endgame Large
2B INR(O) +8
tough endgame. I have to block MELODIA (and EARLDOM which I missed). Didn't see any way to do this and save two outs, but NOM(O)I does it. MORI(O)N is very gutsy and also leaves outs. -10 #endgamelarge
Joshua Sokol vs. Jackson Smylie (Game 33934)
Strategy Large
exch LOQ +0
I overthought this one. I saw that if I played H10 (A)SHLAR and he binged for 80ish from the R with AI?, I would probably be Q stuck. But even then I'm up too much for it to matter and I can always outrun. #strategylarge
Joshua Castellano vs. Tony Leah (Game 34679)
Tactics Medium
8G (DEW)AN +21
yeah lol OUTA/AG is just a lot better, I bingo waaaay more. I saw the play, but then just kinda liked this recurring S setup and how it was a bit more defensive. #tacticsmedium this felt like a bit of a focus error
Mark Pistolese vs. Jackson Smylie (Game 35241)
Strategy Medium
N3 (D)ICK +21
he has a very strong rack; if we give him AENRS then 9L NICK jumps to the top. is this really the best block?? i didn't consider it. i did think of 14L EMIC setting up a possible big play but it doesn't block TOW. -3.5 #strategymedium ?
Jerry Lerman vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 35384)
Tactics Small
9C RELOA(N)ED +62
or OLEA(N)DER. Karl wasn't sure whiich to play, and neither am I really. I guess OLEANDER forks the scoring spots better. #tacticssmall
Karl Higby vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 34809)
Vision Small
A13 EAU +16
WA: I didn't see F10 TATOU, which looks nice, especially if I read HOB as a Z setup; though keeping the T for TREW is helpful as well. I'll go ahead and say #visionsmall.
Will Anderson vs. David Koenig (Game 34986)
Strategy Large
4A HA(N)IWA +32
D3 FAH is extremely obvious. HANIWA is a rather bad move; she comes back with AMBIENT a lot of the time, or ANIMATE, etc! I don't lose but it's a massive spread difference. #preendgame #focus #strategylarge
Vicky Julian vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 35264)
Tactics Small
N10 FID +28
i did not want to burn the last S with FIDOS. perhaps it just scores too much. i thought i needed to score and then bingo next turn making IFS. the main issue is that FID is too easy to overlap downwards. so FIDO > FID (besides having the better leave). i was playing most of this game on autopilot to protect myself i think; i realized my win % was very low, so i didn't want to spend too much time stressing about it. -2.5 #tacticssmall
Thomas Reinke vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 32668)
Tactics Medium
B6 UPO +16
i think POGO is better than this actually. i didn't want to block a lane with N2 POD, but maybe that lane is way too hard to hit anyway? 6E UP also worth a thought. tough position for sure. -4 #tacticsmedium
Richard Buck vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 33791)
Knowledge Large
E10 OY +31
there it is; missing PETITORY# is unacceptable. but i know literally 3 csw words. #knowledgelarge -27 also i should block the 14F spot with NOY if i'm going to play those letters (i thought of BEZ too, but the Z at 14F would be worse).
Ben Schoenbrun vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 34751)
Knowledge Medium
15D AUGITE +29
I was trying to decide between 8A GUY and 15D AUGITE. I figured if I kept the Y, I might be able to cash it at 15L after his bingo, but 8A TUYE(R) looks better. #knowledgemedium
Tim Weiss vs. Joshua Castellano (Game 34399)
Strategy Small
9H DOX +27
Thought getting an S hook on the board would improve my bingo percentage but actually leaving the 8s lanes open with J1 LOX apparently gets me the highest bingo%. #strategysmall 21:31
Will Anderson vs. Joshua Castellano (Game 33368)
Tactics Small
7E GIBE +24
Quackle prefers 7G GIBE for two more points to my GIBE pretty strongly; I would've thought 7E GIBE does a little better on defense relative to 7G than simulation indicates but I suppose it's still quite easy to get a seven down on rows 6 and 9. There's also 7E BEGIN available for maximum defense; that looks pretty good too. #tacticssmall
Jason Keller vs. Will Anderson (Game 34587)
Strategy Medium
9A PAX +37
wow i didn't expect XU 9H to sim that much better if at all. XU really limits her score next turn. it's ok to play defense if i'm down. -4 #strategymedium
Lisa Odom vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 33680)
Tactics Small
C11 V(A)LOR +16
Quackle assigns this the highest valuation, but M11 TOR and a few other plays have undetectably better win chances (99.99 > 99.99 apparently). I considered TOR but I did not realize that it forced bingos ending in S to play on column N instead of column M, thus giving me high-scoring responses. #tacticssmall
Alec Sjoholm vs. Michael Baker (Game 33631)
Tactics Small
10J HIND +30
This needs to be HIN or HAN for sure, setting up a board where any -D bingo plays in several spots. There are six As unseen compared to just four Is, so HAN appears to have the tiniest edge. Both of those plays are incredibly close in sim with HAND and HIND but the little things matter... #tacticssmall
Will Anderson vs. Tim Weiss (Game 34606)
Strategy Small
8G DOR +8
-3 exch R actually sims ok, although DOR sims better on 4-ply. main problem with DOR is that it's relatively easy to block and i only hold one hook for it. i thought of GRIND as well but didn't consider -R. #strategysmall
Cesar Del Solar vs. Rafi Stern (Game 35399)
Vision Small
13C UNVEI(L) +20
Q also likes VEIN M9 to set up the S. Likes it by a whole lot, like 7 points, evening lowering his average while raising mine by 10. It's really aggressive and I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with that in this favourable position, but it is valuated way higher. Quite a bit higher standard deviation. I think this is #visionsmall
Mike Baron vs. Jackson Smylie (Game 33119)
Vision Medium
3J MI(R)K(E)R +24
gotta find K7 KEMPT here, it keeps a much better leave; i especially need a good leave because based on his last two plays another bingo is coming down right about now. -6.5 #visionmedium
Edwin Roth vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 35145)
Strategy Small
E3 BIN +26
this makes the X really powerful, AXES is like a game winning play. She already really likely has an S on her rack, probably not the X but it's possible she kept it with ZA (with AX I12 I'd assume she didn't have it). NIB only allows AXES, whereas BIN allows both axis and axes. am I in a bad enough position to need to win by getting axis? if that's the case I should play BIN. If I think I can win another way I should make it less likely she gets the play, and should play NIB. I didn't consider BI(T) 6F which is pretty cool - I save HADJI for next turn and don't allow the big X possibility. Can I win if she draws the X and I don't draw the blank? I feel like after BIT the game becomes more about the blank, whereas after BIN it's more about the X and AX?S, but the blank could still allow me to bingo if she got the play. Turnover is important here cause of the value of the blank and X, so maybe I should play QUERYING - still saves BIT and HADJI plays, doesn't give anything back.
I'm inclined to not exchange here, even though it seems like a decent option optimally. I think I can outrun here, and I'd like to be able to outrun even if I don't draw the blank. I feel like QUERYING is good even though the sim hates it - I don't allow AX?S plays, I save HADJI and BIT for future turns, at which point she may have played the I or X. I think I should at least play NIB over BIN, my chance of drawing AXIS is pretty low so I should at least make it harder for her to get it. Other than that I have no idea what to do here. #strategysmall
Jackson Smylie vs. Julia Bogle (Game 33121)
Tactics Small
B2 URAEI +25
there are reasons relating to precise move fishing that I think AUREI is a better move here. It immediately gives more back, but there is a slight difference in standard deviation which indicates that higher-scoring plays fit there, plays that can be fished for, such as EXAM or EXAMS. I realized this during the game, but figured Carl would be more focused on building into a bingo than into a play like this. +1.1 but in my opinion this is a #tacticssmall
Carl Johnson vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 33058)
Tactics Small
H12 (W)ICH +36
I had a suspicion WHID would bingo a smidge more thanks to the D at H15 instead of the H, but I'm surprised at how much more (27% to 21%). WHID also sets up a nice backup plan of -CH words on row 13, and that little bump shows up in my avg. score next turn as well. They sim between a quarter and a half of a point of valuation apart...I long for a future when this type of mistake is the only type I ever make. #tacticssmall
Vince Castellano vs. Will Anderson (Game 34375)
Knowledge Large
K5 BA(T)S +32
And here I am. Again. For the third fucking time, shitting my pants trying to block shit when I should be playing equity. This is total ASS and I chickened out of L2 COBIAS. #STRATEGYSADDEST #KNOWLEDGESADDEST
Joshua Castellano vs. Bradley Whitmarsh (Game 34973)
Endgame Large
F1 BEN(E)T +0 (Lost challenge)
he was low on time in the endgame, and I spent a lot of time on AQUAS so I was low on time. I have a win here - 2K B(I)N(I)T. fucking awful #endgamelarge I thought this might be good, wasn't sure
Jackson Smylie vs. Maxim Panitch (Game 35243)
Finding Large
L3 OBOE +22
I completely didn't see JOE until about 15 seconds after I hit the clock. BOOT(E)E is also really nice but also isn't congruent with my game plan #findinglarge
Matt Canik vs. Will Anderson (Game 33560)
Strategy Large
14J INK +14
well he blocked my much better spot for INK. i don't know why i didn't play AKIN at 11K though; that blocks up pretty much everything and seals the game. I think i was worried about an UN- bingo but that's unlikely with the pool. i feel like a lot of these mistakes are just purposeful choices and i'm not weighing the probabilities properly. there is probably something i can infer from LA. -10 #strategylarge
Cesar Del Solar vs. Frank Tangredi (Game 33679)
Knowledge Medium
5C (U)NlIVED +20
I really only considered QaDI O1, VE(G) I6 and this. I was worried SERIFING* was good, so I calculated the endgames with that in mind. This is wrong since SERIFING* is not a word. 3K V(OWE)D blocks REFINES/SMEW, the only available bingo, and keeps threats of Qa(D)I open.
#knowledgemedium
Oliver Roeder vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 33139)
Finding Large
E9 FAU(G)H +24
wow, this is a plain bad play. i don't think i even looked that long, FAUGH seemed obvious to me. but surely 13L AHOY for 34 is great, and E10 FUGIO looks good too. -10 #findinglarge
Alec Sjoholm vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 32680)
Strategy Medium
5C E(V)ET +29
EVET sims worse than obvious moves like 1F KEF but I like that it reduces Tim's average score by about 5 points and eliminates that nightmare huge 4x scenario. Still probably a #strategymedium.
Tim Weiss vs. Will Anderson (Game 34381)
Endgame Large
8K C(R)OFT +30
was very tired at this point, 5B IC(E) is the play. I was trying to figure out a way to block JA(D)E and score a lot while going out in two, didn't think of a setup. -11 #endgamelarge. Also missed C5 AIL somehow even though I considered that I could keep CROFT and COFT. Stupid
Jack Peters vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 33131)