Tactics Medium
F7 Z(I)P +18
he would later mention that i got all 10 power tiles but if you notice here it's a great disadvantage to have these tiles in this case. D11 BEG looks standard, i suppose, but so ugly. ugh. -7.5 #tacticsmedium
Cesar Del Solar vs. Darrell Day (Game 32822)
Tactics Small
J4 LUCKS +32
J6 WUS a smidge better defensively and much higher upside for me next turn, CKLN crushes the H1 triple a lot with vowels. (CALKIN, LUCKEN in particular score massively) #tacticssmall 20:04
Ben Schoenbrun vs. Will Anderson (Game 33416)
Tactics Medium
15H EDUCT +33
EDUCT closes the easiest bingo lane, row 15, which I shouldn't do when I am this far behind. Quackle suggests 2I LUCITE to open a lane on row 1, or C2 CLUED for equity. #tacticsmedium
Alec Sjoholm vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 33160)
Strategy Medium
6F BONE +27
I ruled out BONK here. It scores 4 points more but keeps three vowels, which is dreadful. Despite this, BONK is worth considering, because it can be hooked only with an S, whereas BONE takes a variety of hooks that will make it easy for Alec to score, most notably the Y. For these reasons, NEB 9E is better than either BONK/BONE. I don't think I saw NEB. If I did see it, then I might have disregarded it because EKOU is a worse leave than EKU, but failed to notice the positional advantages of NEB. This is the kind of mistake I'm most likely to make. I focus so intently on maximizing my score and keeping a good leave that I don't give enough consideration to what opportunities I offer my opponent. It's a critical leak in my game. (-4) #strategymedium
Carl Johnson vs. Alec Sjoholm (Game 34515)
Knowledge Medium
4H GL(O)TTAL +20
although this game is not realistically winnable, i can get some spread back by continuing to fish, for example, H12 BELT is just a couple points below but it keeps a much better leave. i partially thought GLOTTALS* was good. -5 #strategymedium #knowledgemedium
Kenji Matsumoto vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 32880)
Knowledge Medium
15D AUGITE +29
I was trying to decide between 8A GUY and 15D AUGITE. I figured if I kept the Y, I might be able to cash it at 15L after his bingo, but 8A TUYE(R) looks better. #knowledgemedium
Tim Weiss vs. Joshua Castellano (Game 34399)
Tactics Large
K7 DISARmS +86
Once I saw DISARmS I looked no further; hence I missed DISbARS and vISARDS in the same spot. Quackle strongly favors fishing off an S (13G QUITS) to threaten a bingo out on column L or N with any possible draw. #tacticslarge
Alec Sjoholm vs. Betty Cornelison (Game 33768)
Strategy Small
H11 (H)URDS +30
probably a good idea to keep my S here. a small part of me confesses they did this to maybe draw a challenge on this somewhat rare sticky-S word but that's not worth throwing away an S. i just wasn't enthused about RSU as a leave. -2.5 #focus #strategysmall
Cesar Del Solar vs. Frank Tangredi (Game 35148)
Strategy Small
4J AQ(U)AE +14
Amazingly, I didn't realize until after I played that I really should have at least considered C8 AQUA for 9 more points; the scarcity of the Es in the unseen pool led me to want to play through, but Quackle still slightly prefers exchanging down to just E. #strategysmall
Will Anderson vs. Winter (Game 34378)
Strategy Medium
3G NTH +20
It's better to go the aggressive route with 2J NTH since it sets up plays like 5I FAS next turn while taking out a lot of Karl's scoring plays hooking YE. #strategymedium
Mack Meller vs. Karl Higby (Game 34744)
Tactics Small
C8 (M)ETALING +74
i7 ATINGLE is the auto-pilot play. I liked trying to control the board with this, blocking more lanes, but I overestimated the bingo defense this provided. #tacticssmall
Joshua Sokol vs. Joey Mallick (Game 32721)
Tactics Small
F10 AIL +14
OK, I drew some A's - that was lucky. I have to play AI over AIL here; for one fewer point I get 15% of bingo. Why do I keep making this mistake over and over? #tacticssmall 20:10
Will Anderson vs. Matthew O'Connor (Game 33417)
Endgame Large
1G G(R)OAN +22
G5 G(U)ANO ugh #endgamelarge
and he shorted me 4 points from his rack even though I knew it. I was rattled after this game. Matt was very much a destabilizing force.
Matt Graham vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 34819)
Tactics Medium
L9 NOPE +16
totally confused here. This was actually pretty awful since he can just re-overlap and fork the board. I did happen to block SUBATOM in two spots, but
#tacticsmedium
Joshua Sokol vs. Scott Appel (Game 33141)
Strategy Small
M1 GLEIS +29
Quackle likes GLEIS but likes G13 GIE a bit more; interestingly, it far prefers GIE to GIO in the same spot, expecting I get a lot more bingos down the M column paralleling SO and perhaps a handful on column I with the (D)O(R) insertion. #strategysmall
Will Anderson vs. Rasheed Balogun (Game 34992)
Strategy Large
1C (J)AILER +42
Better to fish here, but the Q is in the bag 1/3. 2/3 times I draw a bingo 4/8 times, so there's around a 1/3 shot at CALIBRE, BRAILLE or whatever with the blank. I guess it's worth it considering the likelihood I get Q-stuck after this play. #strategylarge
Joshua Sokol vs. Jackson Smylie (Game 34800)
Vision Small
8L J(E)LL +57
wow didn't consider L1 JAWL(I)NE! it's nice to not open the O column. I think I prefer it by a bit, setting up the scoring spot is okay as well with my lead. #visionsmall
Darin True vs. Jackson Smylie (Game 33104)
Finding Small
4H (V)EXT +19
just fishing the F with EFF hits 32/75 of the pool! and is very defensive. I put the T on for extra defense, he averages over 5 less than after VEX. I didn't mind the scoring spot VEXT opens cause if he hits it he's likely giving one back to me. Still, 7E EF or (EF)F look better #findingsmall EF vs (EF)F is interesting, the latter is more standard but the former also invites 8a openings which open the board for me, and I average a lot next turn.
Mark Pistolese vs. Jackson Smylie (Game 35241)
Strategy Unspecified
exch ABLQA +0
BALED 4A is the obvious move here. I saw BALED on my rack and just didn't look for a place for it. Also exchanging AQ is probably better too. #visionSADDER #strategy#SADDER
Danielle Barker vs. Maureen Clifford (Game 33545)
Strategy Large
K5 BA(T)S +32
And here I am. Again. For the third fucking time, shitting my pants trying to block shit when I should be playing equity. This is total ASS and I chickened out of L2 COBIAS. #STRATEGYSADDEST #KNOWLEDGESADDEST
Joshua Castellano vs. Bradley Whitmarsh (Game 34973)
Strategy Large
10K Q(U)ERN +16
i'm a bit surprised at how horribly this sims, but it's not just a simple points formula; QUERN sucks because it gives up 12 more pts on average than exchanging keeping DENR! (it only barely increases the bingo %). -9.5 #strategylarge
Cesar Del Solar vs. Jack Lysowski (Game 35456)
Strategy Medium
4H MU +9
i spent absurdly long on this move. it was frustrating. i should probably just keep it closed and do EM at N1, and pounce on any openings (or still draw a bingo - EM bingoes 46% next turn, maybe a little less because he'll keep it closed, but still). -7 #strategymedium
Cesar Del Solar vs. Jonathan Kent (Game 32940)
Strategy Small
H1 AZ(a)N +39
I tunneled in on using the H column and didn't adequately consider J2 ZEN, which keeps a better leave and doesn't give back a bingo lane. Column H isn't too dangerous with the given pool. #strategysmall #zenstillshouldntbeawordlarge
Matt Graham vs. Mack Meller (Game 34723)
Tactics Small
M3 AA +13
So admittedly I missed 2J ARIOT here which looks pretty nice, but picking which fish to make here was tricky. I don't think I appreciated that M1 HOA would bingo a similar amount to the plays fishing off two As. That looks definitely best thanks to the extra 6 points. But F6 AJAR vs M3 AA vs J10 AA was a tough call. I thought M3 AA would help me get down more bingos but apparently AJAR bingos just as much and doesn't open anything up - it certainly would've worked out better here. #tacticssmall
Will Anderson vs. Jason Keller (Game 34609)
Strategy Medium
F1 (N)Y +30
The Duck says there is a 1/8 chance of winning after this play but I'm pretty sure it's lying to me because I went through every endgame and it never has me winning. So, since I'm pretty sure there is no win, I have to hope he screws up. This play fishes for 15D DISU(N)ITE but he's probably going to see that and block. I need to play something like O11 Y(OWIE) to hit the M because he is probably less likely to see 2G D(I)MITIES. If Quackle is actually correct about the 1/8 please let me know, but for now #strategymedium
Nick Ball vs. Joshua Castellano (Game 32761)
Strategy Medium
3L (L)IED +21
C: In fact, Alec did draw the T, so good thing I'm not a wizard.
A: 3L LIE is best. The lane in column O is easier to use after LIE than after LIED, and the D is a useful bingo tile. #strategymedium
Alec Sjoholm vs. Carl Johnson (Game 34514)
Endgame Large
F8 (R)EV +16
i saw ELVEN and i was positive it wasn't good, or at least just Collins. did they add it in 2014 or 2018? i should have played it anyway since it's my only win right? i was 2-5 and had to leave for dinner and was not thinking straight. #endgamelarge
Peter Barkman vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 33687)
Finding Large
7F LE(v) +3
completely missing a few plays here, such a tough spot! 5J MES(N)E is pretty clearly best here, sets up a lane that's really hard to block completely. This is all I came up with. I can get something once in a while but mostly, I'm preparing to use the C next turn on row 6 to fork the board. Otherwise, if I want to wait, I can play C(H)EL(A) 11J. This doesn't score enough to threaten much #findinglarge
Jackson Smylie vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 33783)
Strategy Large
G1 POET +19
ok, so back when he played REARMING i immediately thought "don't forget the P hook" and was looking for a P all game. right after JAYS played, i realized that i missed KEET, and that BIDE was never a bingo fish. you can imagine my brain immediately short circuiting. what happened? this was the last game of the morning. was i hungry? THIS whole game right here is why i'm not coming close to winning nationals unless i change something, and even though i now know that it is my focus that needs help, actually getting to that deeply focused state requires so much effort (for me) that it is insanely difficult. i pulled it off to a small extent at lake george (and still made a bunch of silly mistakes), but i haven't been practicing. what is my POET even doing; i'm going to let him score a bunch off the P, and i'm not even setting up a hopeful S hook. i seem very undeserving of a 2000 rating when i make mistakes like this, which explains why i'm almost never there. -19 #strategySADDEST #focusworst
Chris Schneider vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 35418)
Knowledge Large
5J (E)W +26
Jackson overdrew and I overturned EIN putting back the N
B1 WOOdR(U)SH iis therefore the play because he can't have a game-winning (W)HITENER to go out
Here I'm hoping he doesn't block the N and I get DISHONOR 3x3
#knowledgelarge
Jackson Smylie vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 35505)
Finding Small
13H (R)UNAbOUT +66
Will: Didn't notice that OUTVAUNT plays at 14F. There's already a gigantic S hook on the board so making another one isn't quite the same problem it would normally be, and OUTVAUNT doesn't open a 9x lane for Josh. #findingsmall #strategysmall
Will Anderson vs. Joshua Castellano (Game 34619)
Vision Large
3N Q(I) +11
Incredible. Not only did I not know 14J QuIST, but I also chickened out of putting the S on JETSOM and didn't think to play 14J WRIST. This move is so bad that I'm tagging it with multiple mistakes. #knowledgelarge #knowledgelarge #visionlarge
Jason Ubeika vs. Joshua Castellano (Game 32545)
Tactics Small
J11 TEIN +13
I don't know why I played this over J11 TENIA--maybe to keep the A for G9? Quackle prefers short plays like 4N DA, 14H AIT, and O10 AIT, but it doesn't realize that Mike has just fished. I like J11 TENIA best. #tacticssmall
Alec Sjoholm vs. Mike Frentz (Game 33068)
Strategy Small
1A O(B)ELIA +27
once again OI is a pretty nice play to set up a lane, now especially it's pretty justified. Also missed A(B)OIL here. I focused on the B too much and was too intent on keeping the scoring pressure on - don't always need to lower variance!!! hard to expect how much she'll open, so ABOIL seems fine as well. #strategysmall
Jackson Smylie vs. Julia Bogle (Game 33121)
Finding Large
10D ENTICES +72
I honestly thought he had taken away a ticket back into the game, but unfortunately I did not see my bing to the O, once again. Damn. If I had only thought about this rack as more than a "play ENTICES/IGLOOS if he doesn't block and play it with KIS if he does block" #findinglarge #knowledgelarge
Michael Early vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 35825)
Knowledge Large
8D VANING +28
why didn't i trust myself? i held him for a long time and i've looked VANED up out of curiosity, i'm sure. i was too worried my bingo would be unplayable next turn if i was wrong. #knowledgelarge
Trip Payne vs. Cesar Del Solar (Game 35446)
Tactics Small
9B OXO +21
9E EXO scores 7 more and is much more defensive, but tanks my next turn bingo%; Quackle actually wants the other placement of OXO at 9H, giving up a few more points to Bob but also maxing out my chances of bingoing. Really close options, at most a #tacticssmall
Robert Linn vs. Will Anderson (Game 34604)
Finding Medium
O7 W(U)RST +8
10B WIENERS is far superior, but even if I don't see that something like C2 WRIEST is absolutely fine...way too big an equity hit with WURST just to get another S hook on the board. #strategymedium #findingmedium
Steve Pellinen vs. Will Anderson (Game 34980)
Finding Medium
8D VOLT(E) +12
this was an odd decision by me. I don't think I saw or considered NOH 12C at all, the clear equity play blocking the clear scoring spot. However, I really enjoyed the look of the board after this. If he uses the full scoring spot at 12A, I might get a very nice score myself, even a 3x3. However, Joey is more prone to playing at 12C or 12B than he is to play at 12A given his style of late, so perhaps this was an oversight, since things aren't great when he does that. The bingo lines are mostly airballs and he has a significant lead before my turn. NOH seems standard and totally fine here. HOV(E)L also seems decent, setting up two lanes. #findingmedium
Joey Krafchick vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 35822)
Tactics Small
B6 AHI +22
When will I learn that I should never keep two I's? AHI has the best equity, but 12C TAHINI is best overall; having two I's greatly hinders my potential for a 2*2 on column K. #tacticssmall
Alec Sjoholm vs. Michael Baker (Game 33772)
Tactics Medium
H7 T(I)RI(N)G +15
Yes, I saw 14F GRIT. And then I saw KITING, and then I saw TIRING which undoubles my R's and saves the K for 14F, and meanwhile I forgot about GRIT. But I have to draw an A for 14F KA or else the sacrifice isn't worth it. Actually, the best plays are at L10: GYRI, RYKE, and KYRIE block row 14, and GYRI in particular saves the K for 14F and doesn't take any of the four unseen S's. #tacticsmedium
Christopher Sykes vs. Alec Sjoholm (Game 33193)
Strategy Medium
4H DR(OU)K +24
Whiffed on some good options here, especially L1 DUSKER, and definitely should've done L1 RUSK, taking a small advantage on a bad board. KNAUR is also better than DROUK just to avoid keeping a U. #findinglarge #strategymedium 11:10
Will Anderson vs. Matthew O'Connor (Game 33417)
Strategy Medium
C9 R(I)DIC +18
My thinking here was that RIDIC blocks the board for bingos completely and after any IRIDIC play I was highly likely to follow up with a bingo of my own. But something like 12B CIRL also blocks the board nearly completely without allowing huge potential counterplay, and I completely spaced on K11 CRIT, though I'm not sure how smart that move is to actually play. (edit: K11 CRIT was not actually available to me thanks to my AUGITES annotation error referenced earlier) #strategymedium
Ben Schoenbrun vs. Will Anderson (Game 34618)
Strategy Medium
J7 HEEZE +53
There is a lot of cool plays here: this, 9A YEH, B2 wHEEZER, J8 YEZ, N2 YEESH. HEEZE has best equity, but Quackle picks 9A YEH (which I found postmortem). YEH sacrifices only six points while keeping ?EEZ--a very strong leave especially considering the shortage of unseen E's. #strategymedium
Gunther Jacobi vs. Alec Sjoholm (Game 33773)
Tactics Small
H6 OXER +22
I didn't consider for long enough the option of exchanging OQ. I also eschewed the defensive aspect of LOX. It would appear exchanging down to ELR is best here #tacticssmall
Joshua Sokol vs. Deen Hergott (Game 35775)
Tactics Small
9B AIRprOX +83
Right bing, but should've played AIrpROX instead of AIRprOX to reduce Jason's scores by 1 when he plays at 8A. #tacticssmall, like really really small.
Will Anderson vs. Jason Keller (Game 34609)
Tactics Small
2J FOH +34
Pretty interesting sim result here. Quackle's favorite play here is F7 FROG, followed by 2J HOG, 8L FAIR, 2J FOG, then my move of 2J FOH, then 8L FARO. They're all really closely packed together in valuation. Terry just bingoed and the board is loaded with high-equity scoring spots so simulation is going to be even more accurate than usual. FROG is both the highest scoring and most defensive move, cutting off SLEW and badly damaging the scoring potential of any racks Terry draws with the X in it. (By contrast, the Z plays all over the place on this board and there's little I can do about it.) I didn't think of FROG at all, unfortunately. On the other hand, I'm losing and might like SLEW to stay open. HOG vs FOG vs FOH at 2J is quite interesting. Sim prefers HOG, perhaps expecting me to get down some much heavier bingos with SHEN and THEN afterwards. My play of FOH gives me the highest bingo% on my next move, but nevertheless trails HOG by 3 points per turn because of those heavy bingos I draw into, and which stay open a huge amount of the time thanks to the other good scoring spots available. I'll give FROG a #visionsmall and HOG a #tacticssmall.
Terry Kang Rau vs. Will Anderson (Game 34593)
Endgame Large
13M Z(E)K +32
14A ZO has 25 more win % points. I'm really surprised by that because I thought I needed more vowels. I guess the odds of drawing no vowels is fairly low and I need the K for scoring. #endgamelarge
Marlon Hill vs. Joshua Castellano (Game 33718)
Finding Small
8D COnGREE +74
Just flat out missed CORTEGE, which doesn't take the zillion hooks CONGREE does - I actually forgot about the D hook and hoped perhaps I would be likelier to remember the T hook than Benjy. #findingsmall #knowledgesmall
Will Anderson vs. Ben Schoenbrun (Game 34592)
Knowledge Large
A8 GAB(b)ED +30
I6 HE(R)BAGED is available here as my only decent chance back into the game. But I talked myself out of it! I also talked myself out of DEBAG! I have played too many games in which an option I am unsure of is invalid and reveals to me that I was too hasty with the comeback attempt. Scrabble is psychological warfare sometimes, and I am all but shielded from it. B(A)DGE is also not as bad as it looks, since 4 R's and 3 D's are already gone. #knowledgelarge
Judy Horn vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 35860)
Knowledge Medium
6B HUE +27
Didn't think NUBBER was good, and eschewed NABBER because of the leave and opening more lanes (remember I'm effectively winning here since Karl needs to beat me by 43). HUE is probably fine over NABBER, but NUBBER is certainly worth it. #knowledgemedium
Karl Higby vs. Mack Meller (Game 34747)
Knowledge Medium
B7 (BO)GART +15
chickened out on 1K TARG(A) but no reason to try that if i have a win, only if it was my only play. -5 #knowledgemedium
i got so freaking lucky this game despite making a number of bad plays.
Cesar Del Solar vs. Jackson Smylie (Game 33784)
Finding Medium
11G (A)UDIT +12
I didn't see TUR(BI)D, which looks like a better X setup. It's not as clearly an X setup and doesn't open an S hook for him. With ADES I wasn't so concerned but I'm still giving him a couple awesome lanes, and he's taking the spot very often anyways. Even XU/LOT is probably fine here. #findingmedium
Joshua Sokol vs. Jackson Smylie (Game 35372)
Strategy Small
8H OK +12
the previous game against chris schneider was one of the worst games i've ever played. i know i like saying that a lot and hyperbolizing, but it really truly was; it's up on cross-tables for your viewing needs. i still blame it on that first round loss; i truly believe that if i had won the first game i would have won this tournament, but instead i am sitting here at 5-7 with 8 games to go. after tacos el gordo, one of my favorite restaurants in north america, i felt like it would be a waste of my time and money to not give it my very best shot, so i resolved to play the next 8 games as well as i possibly could. i think KEG or OAKED are a little better than my move, though. -1.5 #strategysmall
Cesar Del Solar vs. John Karris (Game 35441)
Strategy Small
3F OKE +28
At the time, I was really conflicted about this play. I saw that if Alec hit a big -IC word at 2B, I was in a lot of trouble, but I also figured I was substantially more likely to hit the spot. I also considered KOINE at H1, which wins the sim. -2 #strategysmall
Carl Johnson vs. Alec Sjoholm (Game 34483)
Time Unspecified
2I FA +18
Sim winner is STUPA 5F, blocking LE(TUP). Ok, I'm sleep-deprived and all, and I have no time left, but I'm just saying: even on a good day, I'm never finding that. (-13) #endgamelarge #timemanagementlarge
Leesa Berahovich vs. Carl Johnson (Game 34482)
Finding Large
5E RET(O)TAlS +78
This turn, I completely failed to see TRISTE(Z)A through the Z, which was yet another case of complete blindness to a bingo I looked for. I realized I had TRISTEZA right after I made my play.
I also looked for 5-way overlaps, but failed to see the only one, STARETS at I2. That's the play. I really didn't want to make an X spot, so failing to see STARETS and TRISTEZA, I could still make an effort to see RHEOSTAT, which doesn't create the X spot. #findinglarge
Joshua Sokol vs. Nicholas Tam (Game 35784)
Tactics Large
1F OXIC +44
I now realized that I wasn't actually ahead, but this still looked quite strong to block the easy scoring spot, so I was happy to take it over XI(S) for 55. This is valid strategy for blitz, since I'm also leaving myself with FEH 4F for next turn, but the position is obviously richer than that. Not playing 4 tiles is good here because neither of us wants too draw the Q. The pool is very bad so blocking row 1 isn't really all that valuable, except for a game-ending play there like WEARY, TEARING, YEARN, which happens only once in a while. 14F XI(S) is definitely the stronger choice. #tacticslarge
Noah Walton vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 35563)
Endgame Medium
7B REGR(EW) +11
I shouldn't play so many tiles to let him stick me with RR. 15K RE is 8 points better than this. But I calculated it out and it seemed I still won. He was also low on time. #endgamemedium
Joshua Sokol vs. Seth Lipkin (Game 35826)
Tactics Small
F14 Q(I) +31
this is Carl's rack. He said he considered QUaSS 14F. He probably also considered QUa in the same spot but knowing his style he would not play this since it gives back an immediately lucrative bingo spot for me. Another really interesting play is 14A SO(T), keeping the deadly QU? combination for 14F. It really doesn't appear to be a play keeping the Q, so unless I had a play in that spot, Carl would be likely to be able to play there next turn, perhaps even draw an A or an I to be able to retain his blank. I really like that play, but QUa's numbers are crushing according to quackle. 38-point average score after 66 instead of 66 average score after 31 (assuming Carl finds all of his blank bingos, which is a likely scenario).
Considering the option of recurringly keeping the Q, I think SO(T) would be the play here. #tacticssmall
Carl Johnson vs. Joshua Sokol (Game 33058)