looks good! TOEA is also worth considering. I would play this two rows down though, making YO. It holds the N hook, YO gives back less to Erik cause it takes fewer hooks, and the R stays open, which is slightly better for ending 8s than starting. #tacticssmall
VIRIONs plays for 84! VI(N), VI(N)O, and VIR(E)O are all reasonable here. VIN maximizes bingo% but INR? will score better than INOR? when it hits, cause the extra tile drawn is sometimes more than a 1 point tile. VINO gives back a bit more cause of the S hook it creates, but it's a fairly minor difference. #knowledgelarge
EPh(E)DRIN is better, actually giving back less than SPENDIER on top of scoring 6 more. Inae's average increases more after sPENDIER as well though, mostly because the board is better for bingoes. #knowledgemedium
KAYO 12A scores a ton - GIT isn't a good leave at all, but AGTY after KOJI isn't much better. YA(P)OK and GO(P)IK are also decent - giving back less to Erik, and GOPIK cleans up the rack. #findingmedium
BA(N)TY and TA(N)GY at D11 look like the plays - just to score much better. although it is nice to take out the M and N column, the lead doesn't seem big enough to take such a big hit in points/leave. I would probably take BANTY here, GHT has some synergy despite the G being worse than the B. #knowledgemedium
although AST is the best leave in the rack, the baord isn't very good for bingoes, and there are some plays that score way more than buggy. GUT(s)Y looks like the play here, or GAB(B)Y. They score 32 and 34 respectively, and GUTSY sets up the B on the triple. GUTSY bingoes more next turn than BUGGY, probably because of that lane. again it's not ideal to set up a new lane when ahead by a bit, but a 30-40 point lead on this board can quickly disappear with scoring plays, so it's important to keep the jets on. GABBY is a bit more defensive, but GUTSY looks solid. #findinglarge
SCAUP and SCULP play with the VINOS spot for 44. They score 7 more than CLASP and shed the U, making their outscoring prospects much better than CLASP. CLASP is more bingo defensive - SCAUP/SCULP open the L and P for bingoes. This seems like the same situation as the last three turns, although some value should be given to bingo defense, the lead is only 30-35 points, so it's important to make sure you can still win the games where Erik doesn't bingo - some decent scoring options on this board, so I think the lead isn't big enough to forgo SCULP or SCAUP. For what it's worth, SCAUP seems better cause there are 6 As unseen. #knowledgemedium
(S)UQ seems like the play here - ZI(P) lowers his bingo% from 4.4% to 0.4%, but SUQ still scores 5 more straight up and averages about 3 more next turn. QU has decent prospects here between SUQ and ZIP, but the Z is still better. it still seems important to outscore consistently here with SUQ #findingsmall
Inae realized her mistake soon after making this play - now is the time to play QUOD instead of SUQ - although she's still in a really commanding position, the Q can allow a miracle bingo by Erik, when after QUOD she'll be able to deal with basically any opening he can make. #strategymedium
this is a really tough preendgame - if you want practice with hard preendgames, try this out! analysis below.
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LAIC wins 4/8, with the 4 draws that don't give Erik bingoes (AARU). DNST allow QUARTANS, QUADRATS, QUADRANT, and QUADRANS. The only 100% winning play is TAO/CLASPT, which blocks the bingoes and outscores any 15a play Erik can have, since it saves outs.
dropping (Q)I wins 6/8 with optimal play, but the two tiles it loses with (A and D) require Erik to find 14K SUTRA, which is a hard find for a player of any calibre. this endgame is really tough, and is especially hard to permute because of the blank. QI outruns 15a plays just enough, but it's easier to see how LAIC will outrun non-bingoes. still, I think you could figure that blocking the bingoes is probably a good idea, since at the very least you're preventing 4 insta-losses. as it stands, QI or TAO would have worked out much better. #endgamelarge
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