This was a complete misread and overreaction to his last play. I thought he had really good stuff, possibly an S. My thinking was that I would force his bingo to open lots of floaters that I could counter bingo with my leave of AEGR. In reality, he's making this play with a lot of different racks since it scores 30 points, including keeping a bunch of consonants which is was actually happened. Even if he does have a strong leave the slight defensive value of this play doesn't warrant the equity sacrifice. The equity play of 15A PEW or D4 GAW is fine here. #strategysaddest
I was paranoid about Z plays on row 15, but 6J JO(I)NE(R) looks best here (and also 15M SAZ still plays, sad!). I can probably only lose to a bingo after 6J JO(I)NE(R) and it blocks a bunch of them. #strategylarge
5B W(O)KS keeping a strong leave is a good concept here. That sims best by several points over E1 D(I)RKS and D(I)KES, which I didn't consider either. S(C)REW is also behind by a few points. #findingsmall
joel tells me he hates fishing but wtf do i do with racks like this and the previous one? the problem here at least seems to be that if i'm going to fish i should make it easier for my bingo to fit next turn, so F14 OI is definitely better. -4 #strategymedium
#knowledgesad for challenge F12 PIU or F13 UP are nice here. I think my play leaves too many vowels. Even 13E (X)U is better (I bingo like 75% of the time after) #tacticssaddest
Damn, I could have played a whole ass valid word and wont the game. Even 6B V(u)LN at 14 or 5B T(R)ONS at 10 lets me go out in two. I didn't even need to bingo. #STRATEGYSADDEST and also #knowledgesaddest for the phony
ahhh CONVENTED! #visionlarge I also kinda regretted playing FUN, it lets him overlap sometimes when he has MNX tiles. The sim is kinda weird cause it has him opening a lot after FUN, but realistically I think I should play (E)NUF to be more defensive. CO(N)N is super defensive but also blows up my rack. #tacticssmall for ENUF.
the most heartbreaking miss of the entire tournament. DISCIPLINES from DISC. And it's not like I didn't look. I was just thinking about DIS as a prefix. #findingsaddest
N10 BEG sims best against a random rack, but after 9K S(O) and the available pool, it seems extremely likely that he has another S. It seemed like the game would be over if I play N10 BEG and he bingos on the O column or even just plays there with his S and I'm holding the Q. I thought my best shot was to to throw the Q back (holding consonants because I thought the bag seemed slightly vowel heavy) and hope he draws it after his N column bingo and I respond with an 1H bingo or column O bingo. However, even simming against the best possible racks, N10 BEG is winning every time. It's probably partly because he is unlikely to be holding a U, which gives me a good chance of drawing a U after N10 BEG. But even with AENQU??, I'm not sure how I can ever win after a column O play. #strategysaddest
I don't know if I ever realized I had SOLUNAR. My handwriting later in the game doesn't give anything away. I know I never alphagrammed just the rack on my scoresheet, just 8s through the I and T. #findingsaddest
oh god, what an awful mistake. i really thought this was a word. i laid it down for a while trying to think of something better and didn't see nuncios. #knowledgelarge
Right idea with the turnover and blocking the HUMPS hook. I will say that TURNIP is a worse play than it usually is because I should not be keeping 2 Os with 3 more usneen. While TURNIP isn't egregious, I should be looking to address my O problem while also blocking more indirectly with F2 UNROOT or even 4C UNROOF. #visionmedium
14M KIT sims best, but I was worried about O7 bingos ending in IEST or EST. What I didn't see during the game is that I can also definitely lose to plays like N4 BONACIS, 6H VIB(R)ANCE, and 6G COVE(R)ING, so 14M KIT is probably best. #strategysaddest
I considered this and A8 REAVED. I saw that a bingo ending in PT could outrun README# but I missed A7 UNADEPT, with which Samson would win by 1. A8 REAVED cannot lose; it only ties if Samson has 15H (R)ETINULA. #endgamesmall
I didn't see any wins here and went for tricks. My opponent has about 2 minutes left and I thought if I created some distraction she might miss A1 METALIZ(E) or A1 MELANIZ(E) or have mistracked and block the N column. That hits 2/8 and I need my opponent to make a mistake, but J10 ZO wins 1/8 when I draw the G, threatening A2 MILEAG(E) and L6 MILEAGE, so that seems like a better way to go. #endgamesaddest
?GSS > ?SSTT and TUFT sets up my S's on a DWS lane, but Quackle prefers FUG, likely because it reduces Carl's scoring potential by not offering a floater. #tacticssmall
N11 TIKE dominates the sim, winning 73%, and I have no idea why--it scores 26, but it keeps EUU and makes a higher-scoring (though less useful) bingo line on column O, which should in theory prevent me from outscoring if Mitch has a bingo (54%). 7K ETUI, Championship Player's pick and second place on the sim (63% win), allows the fewest bingos (40%) and keeps a leave that can outscore most plays that aren't bingos. Thus I think ETUI is best. KUE does not block column N at all and is thus significantly worse. #tacticslarge
sick block, though I guess it was pretty likely. This was a huge blunder since TELLY takes an S! I would like to say that I knew this and it was an exploitative move, but it wasn't. Optimally TROLLY is the best play here despite hanging the Y. Or just CLOY or COLY for safesies. #knowledgequestionable #tacticsfail
not great; the leave is not good enough. i could do something like 7I WEAR or even the pretty awesome 7I WE -- ACHRRS is a very strong leave through that E. (but would that stay open?). tough move. -6 #tacticsmedium
Sheesh, you know DOTAL. What a garbage play this was. I also missed 10I TROD, which I think I like best. Interestingly, TROD loses to TROT in that spot in the sim, and they both lose to TRAT. Keeping the DO for B10? DOTAL wins the sim. #findinglarge
10M (E)VO is best. He can't block the O column for that much and it gets rid of the V while scoring something. 7A B(I)Z is comically terrible because of what happens next. I think I had about 20 seconds left. #endgamesaddest
Truly hated giving up both esses, but felt I needed the space in the upper left quadrant...I could've done O1 ASSURE for 52, hoping for an X bomb underneath JOEY to follow up, or just fish my X there and try to hit ASSURE bingos for a zillion. Both seem like better ideas than XERUSES. C8 EXTRAS also scores well and keeps an S for OILS. #strategymedium
thought this could also be an exchange to keep more floaters open and keep one fewer conso. Maybe keep two fewer consos. In any case DNRS is almost identical to DRST apparently, so not creating G-RIND and RIND-Y is definitely worth it. #strategysmall
So many lanes, so much potential! I spent more than 5 minutes looking for bingos and didn't see one. After the game, I gave the rack to Alec and he found the only bingo in about 30 seconds. Dude is *sharp*. Also, LENO 1A is better than any other play by far. I must have gotten flustered after wasting all my time failing to find the bingo that I didn't take more time to find the right non-bingo play. (-30) #visionlarge, #strategylarge, #timemanagementlarge
very annoying, playing HAE instead of HIE. i still do this crap too often. -5 #tacticsmedium (or what is this? i have no idea how to qualify this dumb error)
ZEP scores 10 fewer than ZEROTH but yields 8 fewer points to Chris by not floating the Z in column H and earns me 5 extra points on my own next turn. #tacticssmall
I could go the total opposite direction with 3L ERUV but that seemss very dump considereing the pool. I missed VIRU(S) which at least sheds the terrible U tile, but this was more defensive than anything else besides WIVER, and I thought the R was a bit better to keep. Seems better to play WIVER #tacticssmall
What a horrible position this is! PED was such a scary play, and I can do very little about it. KIWI is dangerous as hell, especially since Mike almost certainly has bingo tiles after PED. But that means that oftentimes Mike will bingo on Row 1 next turn, and I'll get a big score at O1. Quackle exchanges here, and I don't blame it. I had half a mind to do so myself. (-2% win chances) #strategymedium
I honestly thought he had taken away a ticket back into the game, but unfortunately I did not see my bing to the O, once again. Damn. If I had only thought about this rack as more than a "play ENTICES/IGLOOS if he doesn't block and play it with KIS if he does block" #findinglarge #knowledgelarge
Felt clever mathing this out and feeling like I had gotten this endgame right - but Quackle humbles me with 2L NAN, setting up NANE/KELP in a way which can only be blocked if Lynda plays something like US/NANS for 10, eating both the J and V when I respond with 15K KELPY. KLAP is second best and 4 points off of that sequence. #endgamesmall 7:10
Another difficult decision. What's better, BOWER for 40 keeping IU, or OUREBI for 33 keeping W? It's close, but I think BOWER actually was the play. It scores seven more points and opens a new lane on Column O. Also, even though IU is a terrible leave, it 's probably better than a W for bingoing, and at this score I probably need to bingo. (-1.2% win chances) #strategymedium
Another pathetic play. I did not know CLADIST, but I'm thankful that no bingoes were missed here. O8 ALCIDS is 41 which is perfectly fine. #findinggross
I did have the right idea by realizing that the Q didn't need to be dumped immediately. However, M9 KALIF is definitely better as that doesn't do his work for him shutting down the board, and it's 17 more. #findingbad
so this was a huge mistake on many levels! Firstly I somehow got it in my mind he had DEHIMOS on his rack. LOVAGES/MICROS would give him DEMOLISH, whereas he would get HOMIE after G8 LOVAGES. That's why I played it here, but not only was I wrong and he has ADEHMOS, I average so much after DEMOLISH that it's actually worth it to play 9B lovages even if he has dehimos! that being said the post-HOMIE board is better for me so I think it's closer than the sim says, but the sim still prefers 9B by like 11 points. #strategylarge for being dumb
Didn't know fricking EWERS. Feels like SADDEST but since it's only 5 points. #knowledgesad and also 1K VEG(A)S. I was completely out of time. #timeSADDEST
I had problems focusing and counting plays here. I don't remember exactly, but I remember counting both plays and getting it wrong and then trying again and getting it right, but blocking the TO and partially the E in AUTOED is much better for bingo defense than blocking up top. This is a stupid decision on my part. I think I thought I could deal with the right side later. #strategysmall
Even if the scores of both HEW plays were reversed, I should still play under AUTOED.
I inferred a Z. But Jeff didn't have a Z. In my defense, 10C WADI wins the sim when I infer a Z, because none of Championship Player's choices block ADZ. But otherwise, 9G WIT is best. #tacticsmedium
#knowledgemedium APP(U)LES or PAP(U)LES here, also BAP over PAP by 3 points! I was definitely focused on ABLE words too much here especially with no open A.
The commentators liked this play, and I was disappointed by how badly this sims relative to REVISAL/SERVAL/VERSAL. I suppose turnover is important with both blanks unseen, but I figured Will probably had one by now. Also, I acknowledge that VIS is better than VIA, except that Will would know that I have another S. (-16) #strategylarge
I debated between 3C HAPLEsS, my play, and passing up the bingoes with O3 (W)HELPS for 54. I ultimately reduce parallels with cHAPELS over HAPLEsS and it seemed like playing 5 tiles in a non-bingo could put me in a worse spot next turn. Even though I win as often with the bingoes as I do with the non-bingoes, I still should have seen 3C PLAsHES for 88, that's a little better. #findingmall
wow. CEROES* is phony. CERO is a fish, not the number ZERO. never knew that. REBEC is still the best play, but i can't find plays like that when i'm 1-5 no matter how positive i am. -1 #knowledgelarge #tacticssmall
I didn't see E11 (K)HAF, but this isn't too much worse. It felt reckless to set up an S hook that I don't have and keep a not very promising leave. With that said, a play that might fit the theme of playing it safer is 13D HUB, and it does sim ahead of FUB despite HATE being a usually better leave. #strategysmall
almost fished the O for ATELIER/LAETRI(L)E unblockable or ELATERS/STEALER.
Fishing the O is .5 better for average spread than my play of SOLATE. The I, along with the A, is most likely to be in the bag given his last play of S(E)A. So fishing the O is best #tacticsmedium
I think if I'm looking to block off some bingoes with the WILTS hook, a better way of going about it is to do J3 gORGE(T)ED because DEROGATE takes an S and a D. I didn't spot GORGETED, and it's also more defensive overall. #findingsmall