This line certainly looks weird, but the S just doesn't have a lot of value here, and I really want points this turn. Quackle is convinced that TOE bingos over 1/3 of the time and thus prefers it, but I just don't know if I believe that, especially since Sam is more likely to block than Quackle believes and doesn't have VW as much as randomness dictates, but still, that is a massive number, so I'll go with it. #strategymedium
i think if i were to train a neural network to play scrabble, it would choose 10B PAINED. that really really is not my style, but i did very strongly consider it. i think i do need to play like that when necessary. PAINED puts me up at least 50 on a closed board. now he has the responsibility to open it and i can just keep it closed. i would come to regret this move strongly. #strategy?
I had spent probably half my time at the point of making this play. But I just couldn't spot REIGNED. Again, I felt like I was falling into my old patterns this game and couldn't escape. No excuses. Couldn't even spot DE(R)INgER or anything that didn't open a 3x3 or score too low. I knew this was wrong but my time was ticking so fast. #findingsaddest
I decided FU(G) was such a weird play that it had to be a setup an overwhelming majority of the time. I did a bunch of estimations here and determined that this was barely worth playing if his play was a setup 80% of the time. However, what I failed to analyze was that this does block the hardest-hitting X plays, but gives back easy -AX plays in return which score around 40 points, so I'm not actually reducing Noah's average score by nearly as much as I thought I was. My other thought here was YO(K). I thought his range was specific enough now that the 14K spot would be mine a lot and that I could draw YO(K)ES or even something better a lot of the time. On paper I average well after BUR(F)I(s), but not nearly enough. There are plays that average more immediately as well, such as the bingo-seeking plays of M7 BUY and BUOY. BUR(F)I(s) should edge those out pretty convincingly in the turns after next, though. Even when I specify OUX as a partial rack leave, BUR(F)I(s) performs remarkably worse than YO(K). And unfortunately, just like Noah, I missed a cool disconnected play that solves most of my problems and keeps the game much closer. 13G (F)U(s)IB(L)Y is the way to go here. It blocks any setup potential better than any other candidate play and scores well. It does block the 14J spot which I still thought was a good asset, but that's OK. I've already tried to draw into a big play there and failed, no need to put all my eggs in one basket with the score so close. A ton of time and thought went into this play, and it's a glaring error. Tunnel visioning into not seeing that this didn't rid the board of big X plays like I wanted it to, as well as setting myself up for only one good outcome. #strategylarge #findinglarge
Tough call here, I tried to Nigel this out and figure out as many permutations as I could here to see which bingo would yield the lowest chance of counter-bingo, or whether maybe I should just fish off an N or the D; as it turns out all three bingos yield exactly the same bingo% of 71%, but INTENDS does in fact yield the lowest average scores. It does look like I work out a little better here by fishing off the D, which hits everything except the M. #strategysmall
I think of this turn as where I lost the game, although tbf it was probably lost at every point of "knowledgesaddest" in the subsequent turns. I didn't know C9 (Q)UITED, which sims best and I spent like 4 minutes going back and forth between C9 (Q)UIETED and J5 DEI. Obviously, I chose wrong, oop #knowledgesadder #strategysadder
tough choice here again. I could open nothing of import with M3 JOG and sacrifice a lot of points, go with DEBARKING now and eat his bingos, or go with JINGO 4A which seems to be most thematic, hoping to respond to a bingo with a scoring play from the J. Big issue with both JINGO and DEBARKING is that they bail out a lot of draws. AI and II in particular get bailed out bigtime with bingos after DEBARKING and JAILER with JINGO. That's just the beginning. However, he bingos so often no matter what (2/3 if I do nothing and he finds everything) that it's maybe worth giving up here. I so often sacrifice points to play JOG and get bingo-ed on from the C. But the lingering issue is DEBARKERS. Since Quackle once again assumes DEBARKERS will be played if Wally doesn't bingo, other plays (JINGO and JOG) are a lot more reasonable than Quackle thinks. Considering the numbers and what I know here, I think this was a minor mistake, despite winning the sim. Definitely a tough position to sus out without calculating and iterating, which I don't think I did either. #strategysmall
Quackle prefers D11 NOVA, but there's no way I do that. The second pick, D11 NAV, is reasonable: it makes a sevens lane on row 14, but that almost always allows counterplay, unlike many bingos on rows 11 and 12 that NAV blocks. Also, NAV saves 1M NOO for next turn if necessary. #tacticssmall
sort of balked here. Never saw 13K INN which looks pretty good to block the likeliest lane and score, while maintaining the R for RYA. I don't necessarily want to block one spot here, but I might be able to get away with it. #findingsmall
I actually average more next turn after OWIES than OWIE! since I am opening the board it seems. She averages 5 more after OWIES but that doesn't cover the difference in score. That's kinda surprising but I guess it makes sense...? the S isn't amazing here. A bit confusing cause often you don't want to open the board cause they get a lot more benefit than you, but I guess here I'm making a scoring spot after OWIE. #tacticssmall
i played the rest of this game in like 2-3 minutes. i realized the only way i was going to win is to speed play; i believe he was down to around 5-6 minutes by now. i'm normally a very slow player so this was an interesting tactic. -3 NUB in the same spot, but shrug. #tacticssmall
huge miss of SHEAFED, which I saw but chickened out of. Wasn't quite confident enough that there was a word in this. This is a huge 25-point mistake just as the momentum was turning in my favor. Maybe if I had but more thought into it and thought about SHEAFING. AEFGHINS looks potentially good. #knowledgeSADDEST
none of this crap would hae happened without retracer. quackle likes 7C TEPEE a lot more, or 7B ETAPE, etc. i think with all the Us out i might be able to score more next turn. -10 #strategylarge
sick block, though I guess it was pretty likely. This was a huge blunder since TELLY takes an S! I would like to say that I knew this and it was an exploitative move, but it wasn't. Optimally TROLLY is the best play here despite hanging the Y. Or just CLOY or COLY for safesies. #knowledgequestionable #tacticsfail
KATI and KRAI sim less than a point ahead of KINA despite KINA's slightly better bingo% - probably because they synergize a bit better with the K I just hung in space, though it's unlikely I get to use it. #tacticssmall
i should have just played VIPER at 8A. i keep the Z to score next turn. i thought she was less likely to have a bingo through the O, after what could be a vowel dump. quackle likes 15A UP keeping VIZOR for next turn. -7 #strategymedium
2I OBA is best. I chose 6I to block (BE)Z#, but it partially blocks the bingo lane on column L, which I need to leave open while I'm behind. #strategysmall
Not the start that I was looking to have after a disappointing Round 2. Yes, Mark is an offensive-minded player just like I am, but on an undeveloped board, keeping E or keeping EP are still fine over this. POKE does not score enough and gives back too many hooks to justify keeping a leave that will not allow me to bingo for several turns. #strategymedium
So many lanes, so much potential! I spent more than 5 minutes looking for bingos and didn't see one. After the game, I gave the rack to Alec and he found the only bingo in about 30 seconds. Dude is *sharp*. Also, LENO 1A is better than any other play by far. I must have gotten flustered after wasting all my time failing to find the bingo that I didn't take more time to find the right non-bingo play. (-30) #visionlarge, #strategylarge, #timemanagementlarge
This has the best equity, but Quackle overwhelmingly prefers exchanging, keeping only the R--though I am ahead, I am less than 50% to win, so I should preserve the lanes on rows 14 and 15. #tacticsmedium
Not thrilled to open the double-double but this was by far the most palatable equity move; 7E KEPT was my other option, and Quackle prefers it slightly based on just a bit better defense. #strategysmall 17:51
Well, this wins every time, as I calculated, but according to Quackle this is the worst play that does. It calls for 12B TOEA, which does look pretty good, keeping two consonants. #strategymedium
The untrustworthy Quackle likes this play; it sets up the S, like I should have done last turn. I saw that I left 4I ARTS as a backup in case my out on row 15 is blocked (or I don't have an out on row 15), but how did I miss 4I URDS? #findingmedium (-12 1/7)
14A TAPER was my first thought. G11 R(I)P sims second best, and I never thought of it. I decided there's no need to open the bottom, but I think RIP is probably correct, it sims 5 points higher. I bingo much more. #findingsmall
yeahhh wasn't really sure of SICE, that's bad. ERODE is pretty good if I will play SICE next turn, but she also has an S a lot of the time and may take the spot. #knowledgesmall
6A UNA(L)I(v)E and B1 U(N)AI tie the game. I thought of B1 UNAI before it was blocked but didn't realize it was still available. With more time I think I would have been able to find at least B1 U(N)AI. #TIMESADDEST
I might have completely misevaluated this. I'm probably just not outrunning, which was my goal. Or draw a blank somehow but I was like sure he had it. #strategysaddest
OY E9 wins the sim, even though there aren't many bingos to be drawn. It's probably even better than that since Rafi is telegraphing a bingo and might give me more lanes. (-2) #strategysmall
4J V(IN) is the V fish I just missed. I also missed STILB(I)TE fwiw. I also missed SLITT(I)ER fwiw. But mostly I just missed V(IN) which is just dreadful. #findinglarge
50% chance I draw the R, perhaps there's a universe in which I get that down. Also VI(R)T(U)S is just better? Why did I miss that?
Drat. NOESIS scores 45, and playing parallel to OBOE on column M with any number of things retainng one S is just far better than fishing just an O. Might've been a bit tilted drawing my third consecutive unplayable CSW bingo - but the disappointing thing is that in this particular case, I might've been more apt to find NOESIS since I already had ANOESIS# in my mind. #visionlarge #strategylarge
A8 TRaNQ is best! It sacrifices 17 points but gives back much less than QuANTISE (note QuANTISER#) and saves the S for KABS with several high-scoring tiles remaining. #tacticsmedium
wow didn't consider L1 JAWL(I)NE! it's nice to not open the O column. I think I prefer it by a bit, setting up the scoring spot is okay as well with my lead. #visionsmall