Plays made by the player that were challenged by an opponent. This list may not be completely accurate. Check the 'Challenge Heuristics' section of the about page for more information.
Plays made by the player that were challenged by an opponent. This list may not be completely accurate. Check the 'Challenge Heuristics' section of the about page for more information.
Games in which there are at least 5 challenges made. This list may not be completely accurate. Check the 'Challenge Heuristics' section of the about page for more information.
Tough move here. My hope was that reparalleling MIS with ISO would help me open more of the board on subsequent turns, but particularly blocky AMIS hooks like the one Vince played are bad news. Sim actually prefers LIS slightly over MIS on that basis, allowing many fewer points per turn to Vince by allowing fewer hooks and less lucrative plays down the L column. #strategysmall
Sim despises this. I get it, EEIO is weak despite the lopsided C/V ratio unseen and I'm still just letting the LABS hook sit there undisturbed. I was close to doing 11E ZODIAC but balked at the possibility of Vince opening column A with a play from 12A, creating situations with multiple very dangerous bingo lines available. 10D AIZLE is a fine way to score nearly as well as ZODIAC, block a couple lines, and make it more difficult to open the left side of the board while also scoring anything. #strategylarge
Another tank here as I evaluated as many placements as possible. The board after STRIGAE was pretty close to locked down, FOXIEST plays aside; maybe one or two more defensive moves would create a real problem for Dave. Quackle actually prefers 11A STRIGATE and I5 AIGRETS, both of which I considered; I'm not sure I thought of 14B SEAGIRT, which is also a play it likes better. #tacticssmall
Drat. NOESIS scores 45, and playing parallel to OBOE on column M with any number of things retainng one S is just far better than fishing just an O. Might've been a bit tilted drawing my third consecutive unplayable CSW bingo - but the disappointing thing is that in this particular case, I might've been more apt to find NOESIS since I already had ANOESIS# in my mind. #visionlarge #strategylarge
Drat. NOESIS scores 45, and playing parallel to OBOE on column M with any number of things retainng one S is just far better than fishing just an O. Might've been a bit tilted drawing my third consecutive unplayable CSW bingo - but the disappointing thing is that in this particular case, I might've been more apt to find NOESIS since I already had ANOESIS# in my mind. #visionlarge #strategylarge
Truly hated giving up both esses, but felt I needed the space in the upper left quadrant...I could've done O1 ASSURE for 52, hoping for an X bomb underneath JOEY to follow up, or just fish my X there and try to hit ASSURE bingos for a zillion. Both seem like better ideas than XERUSES. C8 EXTRAS also scores well and keeps an S for OILS. #strategymedium
Odd lapse here, definitely should be playing H1 WINDS. Honestly don't think I thought about ZEKS plays at all or else I surely would have. #findinglarge
The board is nearly completely bereft of scoring spots after this move (just ZA hooking plays); Quackle calls for K7 LUREX, but I'm very content to stay turtled up here. LAMER badly outperforms all other candidate moves defensively. However, I missed L8 RAMEAL, which is a better equity version of my move. #findingsmall 16:41
Obviously not opening after YIN. LUN preserves HAZAN/AZAN possibilities for the future. The only other move I would potentially do here is 9C HULA, which should be pretty difficult to bingo with. #strategysmall 14:46
My thinking here was that by playing SEEM down low instead of EMEUTE the odds were good that if Ayo bingoed, it would still be on row 3 or 5 yielding strong counterplay. the other play I strongly considered was 5E MEE, but a SMEE bingo after that could be a disaster, especially because it scores 11 fewer points than SEEM. Quackle calls for 3B EMEUTE, which I also thought about; I suppose I can withstand most of the responses to that too, and the somewhat bingo-prone unseen tiles combine well with the S, so I get EFS bingos a lot. Thinking this is probably at least a #strategysmall 6:56
RURP and URP on row 6 look best here; they score as well or better than TROP and yield fewer bingos in response, especially RURP. The A1 scoring spot is tough for Ayo to hit with this pool. #strategymedium 4:39
Was trying to safely block ZAG plays but for some reason couldn't come up with 13F SEN or 13A RUNES. At least my move wins the game. #endgamemedium 1:15
Fatal mistake here; again, not many Es left, so not liking L8 NEELE: but the play here is 14F EEN after Terry's VAE. I have to try and force her into opening the board and letting me get my bingo down first. Probably more of a #strategysmall but I got burned pretty hard. 12:11
Second mistake in a row. I need to play BEEPING now while I have a playable bingo that scores 78. I balked at evening the score only to still be down tempo afterwards with potentially massive overlaps available; but there's only one A and one O left, so it's possible Terry can't even do anything on column A after BEEPING with APE/OPE. Also, GP? is pretty poor and there are a ton of whammy tiles in the bag that will torpedo my bingo% if I draw them. I regretted not playing BEEPING almost immediately. Quackle says it's a 7 point equity mistake. #strategymedium 10:20
G3 GAP or PEG in the spot where I played are better to preserve the CKLR synergy. Another idea is N2 PRICKLE, hoping to draw tiles to outrun. #strategysmall
Really confusing turn. Basically after EA I wanted whatever my play was here to limit the damage from AXE hooks. Sadly, I saw 10H NEAT and I guess didn't fully appreciate how effectively it accomplishes that task while keeping my vowel. #tacticsmedium
Hated to not play on row 14 but those plays just get smashed compared to RIB. But there's a cool nuance I didn't really appreciate here; while plays like sim-winning 14E BITTED surely give up a few more points than RIB does, they actually decrease Tijan's bingo% quite a bit compared to RIB. That's because row 14 after BALDY is much easier to hit than row 15 after BITTED, and RIB also gives him a bonus floater of a B to play with. Quackle is pretty emphatic that this is a #strategymedium.
I played QUIRT because the pool was more than 2-1 consonants to vowels, and preferred EIT to IRT. Quackle suggests that the plays are equivalent defensively but that I still get a couple percentage points more bingos down with QUIET compared to QUIRT. #tacticssmall
Quackle slightly prefers 11B ODA and OCA, sacrificing some points to gain a solid chunk of bingo%. That does make sense. JAGAS overlapping plays still go down after CANOED, and JESTINGS is still wide open, so I shouldn't be scared to make JAGAS plays more accessible after ODA/OCA, especially at a deficit. #strategysmall - forgot to record time.
Seemed a worthwhile gamble; if Tim doesn't have an E or blank it's just so annoying. Quackle slightly prefers M8 PEZANT, 2A PATZER, and 13J GATED. PEZANT opens two lines at once on a board without many good ones; PATZER creates a moderately annoying threat on column A. Marlon noted that GATED sets up both ZAG and ZIT as potential overlaps on row 11, which I didn't consider. All three plays draw more tiles towards a blank with both unseen than ADZ does. Upgrading this from small to #strategymedium. 11:14
N1 GAUFERS never wins, obviously; CP slightly prefers 11K UG to FAG, but I was imagining FAG potentially drawing into solid scoring bingos on both columns A and N. The problem with FAG is obviously that first, it empties the bag. Second, I was worried that if Tim has the Y he can outrun me with any reasonable FREETY play, but given that I probably need the Y and either the M or the other blank to even threaten the win, I should just bank on drawing it myself, making blocking it unimportant. At least I made a play that has a nontrivial chunk of winning%. #strategysmall 0:45
I felt like a moron after this - I really, truly was weighing BOIL vs LOBI against Noel's leave of TIRES and somehow brain farted and played BOIL, which allows 20% more bingos than LOBI. I remember realizing I had made a big mistake even before Noel played his bingo. #strategylarge 18:52
Didn't see SPREDD, which must be better just to shed so much clunk. The left side of the board isn't quite as dire as it looks thanks to ANANA. #findingsmall 16:44
Gotta try and learn something here. I'm making too many wild moves when it's just not necessary; 11C AZO scores better and doesn't get crushed in response so often. I thought maybe Noel wouldn't know ZUPAN, but it's just too risky a gamble. #strategylarge 13:15
Don't think I saw F6 EON somehow. It scores 6 more than OGEE and bingos roughly the same amount, making it several points of valuation better. #findingsmall
Took a stupidly long time here and still didn't even think to look for a play like B1 OCEANID for 38. I did ECAD over other plays like DECANI in the same spot (my other primary choice) to keep IN together for -ING words down to the G of TROMPING. But the AINO leave is just too imbalanced and the pool not bingo prone enough. Just EOAN in the same spot is Quackle's pick, and if I want to keep IN together something like 2B ODA looks like a much better way to do it. #strategymedium 11:17
N2 OUS is Quackle's interesting suggestion - only the L hooks it in the unseen pool, and I have the N to hook NOUS myself; the AEINR leave also bingos a solid amount here. #strategysmall 10:18
Will: Only two Es left so the odds of Josh paralleling this aren't as bad as usual. Josh: Adding a #knowledgesmall for Will for challenging ENTERINGS. Will, if you wanna play with the big boys, you gotta tag EVERYTHING.
Didn't generate M8 AVOURE as a choice, which is better defensively and bingos a solid amount more than VAURIEN (33% to 21%). I had it down to BOUVIER vs. VAURIEN which is indeed more of a coin flip. #findingmedium
My thinking here was that RIDIC blocks the board for bingos completely and after any IRIDIC play I was highly likely to follow up with a bingo of my own. But something like 12B CIRL also blocks the board nearly completely without allowing huge potential counterplay, and I completely spaced on K11 CRIT, though I'm not sure how smart that move is to actually play. (edit: K11 CRIT was not actually available to me thanks to my AUGITES annotation error referenced earlier) #strategymedium
I had a suspicion WHID would bingo a smidge more thanks to the D at H15 instead of the H, but I'm surprised at how much more (27% to 21%). WHID also sets up a nice backup plan of -CH words on row 13, and that little bump shows up in my avg. score next turn as well. They sim between a quarter and a half of a point of valuation apart...I long for a future when this type of mistake is the only type I ever make. #tacticssmall
I was so close to just doing M11 KYU instead of YUK to be safe. Yes, there is huge Z-bomb upside to YUK, but Vince has one of the *fifteen* unseen Es and Os so, so often to play there himself, and it's instantly by far the best scoring spot on the board. However, I need to add that Vince put down QUID, then looked at it in frustration and picked it up to play QUIN - I kind of read this as an admission that he didn't have an E himself on that turn, which does tip the odds a fair bit in my favor. I probably should still have played it safe here. #strategymedium
This absolutely needs to be something at 3E or 3F using up more tiles. I liked the annoying O column lane that PAN created, especially with the possibility of a huge ZE/OX/NO hooking play coming down and crushing me, but something like GAMBA also creates lanes while avoiding being saddled with 5 consonants. #strategylarge
Could play 1A REBATO, but covering the W reduces Seth's scoring for next turn and the AEGT leave bingos a little bit more than a lone G. I somehow didn't consider 4A BOATER, which also scores quite well and covers the 4A scoring spot, which will score a lot if Seth can play a six hooking EX. #strategysmall
I kept the A here to perserve the chances of drawing something that hooks AG going down on column M. A better idea is probably just QI, going for ARIETTA/ATRETIC/ITERATE/INTREAT/ARTISTE, but IT is ok too. #tacticssmall
I was worried that I would get outrun with a small fish, so I grabbed enough points that a lucky bingo would still matter; but keeping EIILT and blocking the O of GAUCHOS is not a good way to do that. 9A LIEU is the play if I want to get points without blocking any of my scarce bingo lines. #strategymedium
Sim likes POUF which I wouldn't do, but 6E OAF setting up potential MARID reparallels looks pretty good. I think I saw that but didn't appreciate it fully. #strategysmall
Would've been funny if I played my other choice of 2B URP because then I could say "Your play: URP" - I somehow missed 2D PRURIENT. Pretty lazy. #findinglarge
Will: Hmm, I almost did BENJ and Quackle ever so slightly prefers it, but not for the reason I would expect (allowing fewer bingos) - it actually allows more bingos than JEW (24% to 19%), but almost equivalent average scores, which I think suggests that JEW is easier to overlap for solid scores on non-bingo turns. Even the leftmost placement of BENJ, which certainly looks like it would be hard to play sevens against, yields more bingos than JEW. BENJ then outperforms JEW on my own next turn by several points thanks to the more flexible leave. #tacticssmall
Sim slightly prefers G1 VIMS; it scores a lot more and doesn't offer parallels thanks to the V. In fact, VERMIL yields more points to Andrew on his next turn than VIMS does. Obviously, I do much better on my own next turn holding the S, but still #strategysmall
Huge tank on this turn as I tried to figure out which way to go. At various points I was close to playing M10 or N10 JESSIE and H7 JASS. Sim wants M10 JESSIE, drawing more tiles for blanks and leaving the VARIAS hook open without exposing the triple lane the way N10 JESSIE does; makes sense to me. #strategysmall
Was really close to playing SLY; somehow missed J4 IDYLS which looks good too. DITZY gets hit way harder in response and scores much less. #strategymedium #findingmedium 21:44
Was really close to playing SLY; somehow missed J4 IDYLS which looks good too. DITZY gets hit way harder in response and scores much less. #strategymedium #findingmedium 21:44
J6 WUS a smidge better defensively and much higher upside for me next turn, CKLN crushes the H1 triple a lot with vowels. (CALKIN, LUCKEN in particular score massively) #tacticssmall 20:04
Tanked down to next to nothing here, just could not find anything I liked. However, SULFO is obviously very wrong and hemorrhages any win% I have here. I probably should've done the other move I was considering of N10 FUERO and hope to draw unblockable bingos in different areas of the board, of which there are a handful. #strategylarge
Thought getting an S hook on the board would improve my bingo percentage but actually leaving the 8s lanes open with J1 LOX apparently gets me the highest bingo%. #strategysmall 21:31
17:05 (exchange to just M - the M is quite good here between MY plays on column D and column N overlaps. Apparently keeping MN does the tiniest bit better; probably because the N gives me flexibility to parallel the U of RENATURE going down) #tacticssmall
I have a habit of misevaluating Gs and Vs. 7G MOG is clearly better, bingoing a whopping 10% more often and yielding 7 fewer points per turn to Matthew. Oddly, I'm not sure it crossed my mind as an option. #findinglarge
Quackle doesn't like this either because the leave is too gross (too GROST...heh). It prefers F5 GOOK, but Matthew is perhaps least likely to play the way that Quackle expects of anybody I know. Maybe 9H DOG or 6H LOG are more reasonable. #strategylarge
My issues evaluating V-containing leaves continue. FAVES is the better option; it scores 4 more than BARFS and bingos approximately 1% more without yielding any higher opp. avg. score. #tacticssmall
Quackle prefers 7G GIBE for two more points to my GIBE pretty strongly; I would've thought 7E GIBE does a little better on defense relative to 7G than simulation indicates but I suppose it's still quite easy to get a seven down on rows 6 and 9. There's also 7E BEGIN available for maximum defense; that looks pretty good too. #tacticssmall
I played WILJA extremely fast, thinking it had to be right - but 11I BEWIG scores 40 and leaves AL, which is far more flexible than BEG for bingoing next turn. Didn't generate it as a choice. #findingmedium
I calculated that ZHOMO would win by 1 here, and it does; but there could have been a scoring error, and there's far a better option here of 14F HERTZ for 62, following up with 10J MOO. #endgamelarge
Amazingly, I didn't realize until after I played that I really should have at least considered C8 AQUA for 9 more points; the scarcity of the Es in the unseen pool led me to want to play through, but Quackle still slightly prefers exchanging down to just E. #strategysmall
Lamented STEEPEN being blocked - at no point did ENSTEEP remotely come close to entering my mind. If I'm being honest, what *did* go through my mind was - should I play STEEPEN and hook NAD*? Nah, Winter surely knows that NADS is sticky-S, and probably has some kind of lewd device for remembering that factoid. #findinglarge
Somehow missed 13I VAV - although it sims completely evenly with FAVER I think I prefer VAV for a couple reasons. First, the FHRT leave synergizes really well with the row 4 scoring lane forming CH. Second, in this particular scenario, it's not clear to me that Winter will know PAWAW and if I draw the W I could score a boatload with it at 14J to the DWS. #visionsmall
Pivotal move. I balked at VETCH because I felt that I was in control of the game and saw no reason to create a massive-scoring K hook along row 1. However, after I played, I realized that I should have played FECHT instead of FETCH at the very least because I was holding an S, and adding another S hook would help me dump some bad draws. Looking at it now, though, it might actually be a good thing for me to add the K hook with a slight tempo advantage; given that the X already scores well on top of DUNAM and that the J could score decently paralleling BELAY, adding the K hook to the board makes it more difficult for Winter to draw each and every one of those tiles to stay ahead. As long as I can draw some of JKXS?, I should be able to use them to preserve tempo. Sim prefers VETCH by about 4 points of valuation. #tacticsmedium
Sim prefers K5 TINY, which bingos surprisingly often. I did 11E BI to leave the YARAK lanes open and put another bingo lane on the board for my nice leave. 11E DIB was also tempting; though it gives me fewer bingos than my move, it still gives me enough that it's basically even in avg. score for me next turn. #strategysmall
Already feeling a little time crunch here and threw down D8 WAN pretty fast, hoping that my -ER containing leave might work better for hitting column E than whatever Sue held; but I'm much better off playing inside with something like O8 KNEW, scoring just as well while retaining the A to play parallel to the J in the future. #strategymedium
Well, I missed URODELANS, so that's not good. But Quackle also hates my choice of SOUND over something like L10 DUO. My thinking was that on this board, the S isn't really a key tile; the key tiles are the I to play TINY or LINY hooking QI, the H to play HO/HUN, and the X just because it's the last power tile. Rather than play L10 DUO, I wanted to get more cracks at any of these three tiles to maintain tempo advantage. #findinglarge for sure and not sure if this is a #strategymedium as Quackle indicates it is.
Well, I missed URODELANS, so that's not good. But Quackle also hates my choice of SOUND over something like L10 DUO. My thinking was that on this board, the S isn't really a key tile; the key tiles are the I to play TINY or LINY hooking QI, the H to play HO/HUN, and the X just because it's the last power tile. Rather than play L10 DUO, I wanted to get more cracks at any of these three tiles to maintain tempo advantage. #findinglarge for sure and not sure if this is a #strategymedium as Quackle indicates it is.
Figured this would be a controversial move, but while I accept it's a mistake and I certainly got burned to the maximum possible extent, I had logic behind it, as I expressed on the stream; if Alec didn't have a bingo, I expected he might be more apt to open something than the Gibsons of the world. #strategylarge
I suppose FOAM is simply too many points not to play, but I was really unhappy with its effects on the board...I suppose the D of SQUID is very difficult to block without sacrificing a lot of points after I play FOAM. #strategylarge
Just flat out missed CORTEGE, which doesn't take the zillion hooks CONGREE does - I actually forgot about the D hook and hoped perhaps I would be likelier to remember the T hook than Benjy. #findingsmall #knowledgesmall
Just flat out missed CORTEGE, which doesn't take the zillion hooks CONGREE does - I actually forgot about the D hook and hoped perhaps I would be likelier to remember the T hook than Benjy. #findingsmall #knowledgesmall
Drat. Still not rock solid on finding the 30k-40k probability 8s like UNFIXITY, which plays at A8 for 89. I'd have had a shot of seeing it if the X had been a natural tile as opposed to the blank designation. #findinglarge
Stopping miracle column A bingos and scary plays like 10B JAR. Something like 2I DINTING is mostly bulletproof as well, though I guess it would suck if Benjy had AGITABLE or EGLATERE. Quackle also likes 11H EMEND which I admit looks quite good to me, holding my lone vowel to dump the Q if I draw it and blocking the N and T of OUTPAINT. #strategysmall
Nope, need to just use one vowel here, big mistake. Spending my N absolutely torpedos my bingo%. Unfortunately, Neither RETINE or ORIENT hit the F from 1H very often. Also, if I was going to play two tiles ON is better than EN by a fair margin. #tacticsmedium bordering on large, the plays sim pretty close but I think the error is larger than that. 10:13
My play allows plays down column M to potentially block both PYOTS and column N. I'm very much preferring 13A COPSY now for some more points and to create multiple lines in different quadrants of the board. #tacticsmedium 8:34 (guess I played this move fast)
Although FIQUE gets me 12% more bingos than QUITE, it only results in an average score of one more point per turn for me on my next move. Odd. #tacticssmall
No idea what got into me here...I was sure there was some CSW-only variation of BLOTCH. I don't think I was confusing this with BLENCH, so I wonder how I got my wires crossed. #knowledgelarge
This isn't the first time I've spaced out on VEXINGS. Also I might like 11H POTT better than SPOT now but I did like putting a little pressure on Winter here. #knowledgemedium
Missed a couple options here - 2K TELIA is ok, but the normal top equity move of 5B AUDIT also looks pretty good, and I missed it. VIDUAL was not held. #findingsmall 21:07
Too crazy. I was getting nervous that a simple TRAPROCKS bingo would be the death of me and wanted to get more threats on the board, but I just don't need to play this aggressively yet. B1 BI (confusing notation, eh) bingos much more than BIO thanks to the better-balanced leave hitting COCA plays more often; a different approach would be B1 BE, which sets up 1A ONTIC/OB/NEF for me next turn. 6D OB is a pretty simple way to set up a new line without opening myself up to heavy counterplay. Just fishing the B at 2K also bingos a ton of the time. #strategymedium 17:01
10B WIENERS is far superior, but even if I don't see that something like C2 WRIEST is absolutely fine...way too big an equity hit with WURST just to get another S hook on the board. #strategymedium #findingmedium
10B WIENERS is far superior, but even if I don't see that something like C2 WRIEST is absolutely fine...way too big an equity hit with WURST just to get another S hook on the board. #strategymedium #findingmedium
This might be the play I'm unhappiest about from the entire tournament. Why am I still making this error? EE, same spot, gives me 20% more bingo. #tacticslarge
I get 7% more bingo by holding onto the P and those bingos I do get score slightly more thanks to my holding a tile worth more than one point. #tacticssmall
Close. I have to block SIXTHS/XYST down there, but better by a few points is simply 15G EATER, scoring only one fewer point than AFREET but setting up FAE on row 14 for many more points than the move I ended up playing. #endgamemedium
CHAMP seems like the word to play here, but which placement? There are so many. I think after Matthew's move I need to be making as few floaters as possible and definitely not a double-double line, making 9G CHAMP the best choice. #tacticssmall
Here I overreacted to my good 7s lane being blocked and grabbed at points. 9C LUG has the nice attribute of setting up a new lane for ING with GLUG hooks; but it's very hard to imagine Matthew not blocking it somehow. Instead I think I prefer the simple C7 LIG over GRIG, just to maintain much better leave synergy. I also get some draws towards GLIFT and GLIFF 8A, which would be annoying board openings for Matthew. #strategysmall
Waffled over VAWS, O1 EA, and NAVE for quite a while. I was going for the final blow bingo, and indeed I do get a massive amount more bingos down after NAVE; but VAWS still seems like the right play here, going up by 70 and keeping the board very tight. #tacticssmall
Regretting not doing VAWS now as I could have just kept scoring instead of commit myself to bingoing. I would've done C11 ABY except that I was easily envisioning situations where I hit a bingo that didn't play. Indeed, I get 77% bingo after ABY and 90% after BYE. Still at least a #strategysmall and maybe medium.
Tough move here. I think after Rasheed's OKE perhaps UGALI isn't the best idea. It feels like 13B RIZ is much better than usual after that play, since he probably rarely has a G and certainly never an F on that move; unless maybe he can have ING leaves with OKE? Hard to say. I think I like RIZ here, but other Quackle favorites like G13 GI/GIE don't seem smart. #strategysmall
Quackle likes GLEIS but likes G13 GIE a bit more; interestingly, it far prefers GIE to GIO in the same spot, expecting I get a lot more bingos down the M column paralleling SO and perhaps a handful on column I with the (D)O(R) insertion. #strategysmall
SCEND looks a little better now after FAH, my DS leave after CRANED isn't that good to play down from H1 and there are no good S hooks left. #strategysmall
Well, this wins every time, as I calculated, but according to Quackle this is the worst play that does. It calls for 12B TOEA, which does look pretty good, keeping two consonants. #strategymedium
ZEP scores 10 fewer than ZEROTH but yields 8 fewer points to Chris by not floating the Z in column H and earns me 5 extra points on my own next turn. #tacticssmall
I had a hunch that I should've played BLIVE right after hitting my clock and before Bob's next play...too fixated on keeping an E with seven more to redraw. #strategysmall 15:03
Played the correct move of DZO and then picked it up for just ZO; it's better to play DZO and then play my M atop CRUOR next turn. For the third straight game I was extremely low on time, didn't record it for these last few moves. #endgamelarge
Will: Burned all the rest of my time here. I considered AWARN, AWARD, HARDLINE, HARDLINER, and N10 IDLER/ELDIN. HARDLINER attempts to luck into an outbingo that Josh can't block by playing parallel to HARDLINER, and also might luck into ZQ draws (HARDLINER makes a big Q spot). Maybe I draw something to the I and play it after he blocks the R, for example. Amazingly AWARD bingos 35% to AWARN's 11%, though the usual caveat applies that those numbers are going to be lower than Quackle thinks because Josh is going to seek to lower them. I'm just amazed at that disparity. My problem with IDLER, which looks good at first glance, is that any parallel play putting a difficult letter on row 15 is basically game over; there's no space left. At least after AWARD there's both row 13 and the Y of DAVY. I kinda wish I did HARDLINER now just for the lulz. #strategysmall
GIS and just GI bingo much more than GIT, though keeping both esses ensures that I sometimes get QIS scoring plays to bring up my low-end scores next turn after GIT. Obviously, GIS is ill-advised here thanks to the EGIS hook, but I accept that GI should've been my play. #tacticssmall
Bad decision here, should've exchanged. The board isn't nearly lock-down closed enough to be grabbing at such a low number of points and keeping a V. #strategymedium
Not thrilled to open the double-double but this was by far the most palatable equity move; 7E KEPT was my other option, and Quackle prefers it slightly based on just a bit better defense. #strategysmall 17:51
Seemed justified with the blank in hand, but I almost did the much safer LUZ to create a really ugly board position. I think I prefer that now, but AXLE has its merits. #strategysmall 11:11
GAWSY crossed my mind here but I didn't want to take a risk - thought HYE would run the score up to where I could outrun a lot of bingos. I'll give myself a blanket #knowledgelarge here to cover the rest of the game for not knowing CASTLINGS for sure.
CP likes this, saying it wins 95%, but it's surely dependent on full confidence in CASTLINGS. Given that I did not have that confidence, a great option is 11D VOW/VAW, setting up SOZ/SAZ to follow up in the endgame, also winning 95% because the bingos Bradley does get down score so much less. Unfortunately, I burned a huge amount of time grappling with this position and somehow still didn't generate VOW/VAW, leaving me vulnerable to time pressure on my next move. #strategysmall #timelarge
CP likes this, saying it wins 95%, but it's surely dependent on full confidence in CASTLINGS. Given that I did not have that confidence, a great option is 11D VOW/VAW, setting up SOZ/SAZ to follow up in the endgame, also winning 95% because the bingos Bradley does get down score so much less. Unfortunately, I burned a huge amount of time grappling with this position and somehow still didn't generate VOW/VAW, leaving me vulnerable to time pressure on my next move. #strategysmall #timelarge
I had well under a minute here and the fastest math I could do indicated that this move would win without needing to risk CASTLINGS (I scored it right but added it wrong) - it turned out that it actually tied instead. Then I insisted on recounting the game, even after Bradley offered me a tie, and discovered multiple plays I had overscored, and ended up losing by 3. Tough loss, but I've had worse. #endgamelarge
KATI and KRAI sim less than a point ahead of KINA despite KINA's slightly better bingo% - probably because they synergize a bit better with the K I just hung in space, though it's unlikely I get to use it. #tacticssmall
Pivotal move. I saw the star equity move of 14F YGOE leaving the nice DENR; but that leave isn't particularly helpful for bingoing on this board. I felt it was much more important to blow through some tiles to get at least one of the four unseen esses for JIBERS. However, what the DENR leave *is* helpful for doing is letting me score with WEIGHTED, WEIGHERS, or WEIGHMEN with any of MSSSST, and in general good leave synergy/balance never hurts. #strategymedium
Thought WAGGAS would give up the extra points it scores on defense, but apparently it's only two points worse than GEWGAWS. Maybe GEWGAWS slightly likelier to get +5 from challenge too, but still #tacticssmall 17:58
No clue why not I11 YID instead for 11 more points; as I said last turn but clearly forgot here, no point grooming rack leave on this board. Also no idea why I spent five minutes to come up with this. #findingmedium #timesmall 2:51
No clue why not I11 YID instead for 11 more points; as I said last turn but clearly forgot here, no point grooming rack leave on this board. Also no idea why I spent five minutes to come up with this. #findingmedium #timesmall 2:51
I saw 8K HANAP but figured the two plays would be less than 5 points of valuation apart, and my odds of getting a challenge were pretty high. Instead, the plays are actually closer to 10 points of valuation apart, especially because I bingo from either the V of VODKA or P of HANAP a lot for a very good score next turn. Basically, I wanted to be able to say "I played SHWANPAN" instead of making the correct play. #strategysmall #egolarge 18:10
OK, I drew some A's - that was lucky. I have to play AI over AIL here; for one fewer point I get 15% of bingo. Why do I keep making this mistake over and over? #tacticssmall 20:10
Whiffed on some good options here, especially L1 DUSKER, and definitely should've done L1 RUSK, taking a small advantage on a bad board. KNAUR is also better than DROUK just to avoid keeping a U. #findinglarge #strategymedium 11:10
Whiffed on some good options here, especially L1 DUSKER, and definitely should've done L1 RUSK, taking a small advantage on a bad board. KNAUR is also better than DROUK just to avoid keeping a U. #findinglarge #strategymedium 11:10
I'll give myself a #knowledgelarge for challenging the valid 4 even though it only ended up costing me 5 points; it could've been much, much worse to have chickened out of a valid bingo on row 10.10:55
Again, major consonant overload to come - the EIIL leave should combine with the pool to hit some plays on row 1 that Marlon can't really address. Still, keeping two Is is avoidable here with plays like 4A LUDIC, 4C DUCI, and perhaps best of all, 2F LIRA; CP actually picks 2F DURAL, really going all in on drawing consonants to the leave of EII. Makes sense to me. #strategysmall 5:22
Will: Close, but there are more than enough bingoes that still go down along column L that I absolutely need to play BENJES here instead; I probably also do a bit better in endgames by going out in one. #strategylarge
Tough call here; went for most aggressive opening. DOW is most defensive; LOW sims better but I don't have hooks for it. I guess DOW is what I should've done. #tacticssmall
If I'm keeping the G here I have to hold the N with 6A OWE, very basic stuff. I really do seem to misplay Gs all the time. Should be an easy fix... #tacticsmedium
Considered just 7G OO and I apparently get 5% more bingos keeping the M here. Would not have guessed that. Then of course there's the fact that OO doesn't make the big scoring spot for power tile bombs. #tacticssmall
This is top equity, but I'm really disappointed in myself for this move. RORE is a flashing neon sign that Winter has the X or in the best case scenario for me is hoping to get it on his draw. Josh Sokol, please forgive me for not learning my lessons from you. I deserved to get hit with a ZEX bomb for 90 points after this. The play is obviously J10 WRIT. #strategylarge
Looks like FUGIO is a bit better; WU is certainly worse than the IOW after FUGU, but FUGU gives back the big easy E hook and FUGIO scores 4 more. #tacticssmall
9E EXO scores 7 more and is much more defensive, but tanks my next turn bingo%; Quackle actually wants the other placement of OXO at 9H, giving up a few more points to Bob but also maxing out my chances of bingoing. Really close options, at most a #tacticssmall
I didn't want to open anything unnecessarily here but GUAVA or VAGUER might be worth doing just for the more balanced leaves and more tiles drawn towards one of the blanks. The pool is also pretty vowel-heavy so leaving ADEU after VAG could go south fast. #strategysmall
This needs to be HIN or HAN for sure, setting up a board where any -D bingo plays in several spots. There are six As unseen compared to just four Is, so HAN appears to have the tiniest edge. Both of those plays are incredibly close in sim with HAND and HIND but the little things matter... #tacticssmall
Incredibly, I actually have a solid winning chance here. It does appear that GRAPH and GRAPHS both do slightly better than AARGH, which makes sense; GRAPH bingos a solid amount more often. #strategysmall
A bunch of plays sim better, including G6 AKA, E5 RAKIA, and a few more plays on the G column. I played HAIKA quite fast - clearly I should've slowed down and looked harder. #findingmedium
EENRR is so gross to keep with DHAL...Quackle is saying I should've tried to avoid that with something like 9H DERN. DHAL sims closely behind. #strategysmall
I tunnel visioned the new spot and didn't even notice that JEAN plays at N12 for 44 as well. JADE gives back nasty parallels with AJEE and perhaps X bombs in addition to Z bombs, which would play with ZEE anyway if I don't address that area. #visionsmall
Played over CONURBAN because I hoped it would drop Matthew's bingo% more; but actually CONURBAN yields about 1% fewer bingos than CORNLAND because it blocks both the B and the O (and I suppose the F of FIGGY) compared to just the D. #tacticssmall
Will: Didn't notice that OUTVAUNT plays at 14F. There's already a gigantic S hook on the board so making another one isn't quite the same problem it would normally be, and OUTVAUNT doesn't open a 9x lane for Josh. #findingsmall #strategysmall
Will: Didn't notice that OUTVAUNT plays at 14F. There's already a gigantic S hook on the board so making another one isn't quite the same problem it would normally be, and OUTVAUNT doesn't open a 9x lane for Josh. #findingsmall #strategysmall
Will: Too crazy. I was going for the maximum chance at a 9x myself here and also a fallback of ZANIER with an E draw. But the simple 14A VAW still preserves a good crack at a 9x while scoring 18 more points. #strategylarge
Will: Only one out for Josh here with GOAD. BOSKET blocks it and leaves OOS/VAWS, among other things. I think I can be forgiven for laziness at this point. #endgamemedium
W: I need to do KITE and get lucky; I felt there was a chance of outscoring after SICKED, but I still have that chance after KITE and I get way more bingos down. #strategymedium
My reasoning for this move was to set up a board where I either hit my fish and bingo or brick my draw and score decently to the triple with OCAS. But AGIRS just doesn't bingo quite enough more to warrant the 10 point sacrifice over ORGIAC. #strategysmall 21:12
Played ZHOS quite quickly but didn't stop to think of N2 SHASH, which scores 9 more and draws into a boatload of heavy Z plays on column A or at the very least O1 ZO/ZOO. #findingmedium 14:42
Second best play to B8 DEXIE, but could've been a very costly mistake. Vince's best play of VUMS F5 will tie after DEY, making DEXIE the only win. #endgamemedium though obviously it would certainly feel more like an endgamelarge to miss the only winning move. 0:30
Your play: RURP. I chickened out of SPURRER and bizarrely didn't play PURR for 4 more, probably distracted by my deliberations over SPURRER's validity. #knowledgelarge
Perhaps I should go for broke for a bingo here with DEXIE or ICE, but INANE seems ok too. Quackle is pretty emphatic that DEXIE is better; I did see it but felt it made the H15 triple so easy to crush. The extra bingo% makes up for it. #strategysmall
This was tough. AUNE looks like the best way to shed vowels (especially the U) and not open anything too dangerous the way I7 UREA does. Truth be told, I wrote the word on my sheet and thought I was confusing it with Cornelia's daughter. WAE sims a couple points behind. #knowledgemedium
J2 KUNA holding on to the S was my other option here and maybe I need to do that. After KUIAS I'm pretty much committed to bingoing to the R of AIRILY. #strategysmall
Chosen over 13E VINED to preserve a better board for making a comeback, but there sure are a lot of Os unseen... F2 or 13H VENINE look like safer options that still keep a lot of threats available. Tough call. #strategymedium
Hmm. Odd miss of PERCOIDS, I absolutely did not even look through the C at all once I saw this. One benefit of PRODIGIES is that if Tim had a higher scoring tile he probably would have tried to play it last turn, so I'm a favorite to hit the H column hard. #visionsmall
I'm proud to say that I didn't miss the overlaps for UTOPIAN at N9, I literally did not think of either bingo on my rack whatsoever. Amazing. #findinglarge
Well, I like to think that if I had had to see it, I would've spotted F1 PEACE, which Dave saw but correctly forced me to see by blocking the much easier L1 EALE; but EA and EE at 11J both get the job done. I must have been tired. #endgamelarge
IZAR would be a reasonable play here, on par with N8 NAZI and 11B REPAIR, except that I completely whiffed on L11 CAPIZ for 56. After MENTEES, I need those extra points to withstand an A1 bingo to the D and might even struggle to deal with a STAW hooking bingo without those points too. #findinglarge
Case S is extremely strong here with LUVS and a very bingo-friendly pool, so I played CROZE to at least partially block some stuff through the K and completely take out the the row 2 bingo line; 1I MOCKERS was very tempting as well. Obviously, I'll feel pretty stupid any time Joey triple-triples through the K after CROZE, whereas pretty much no bingo after MOCKERS will score enough to threaten me, especially with me holding the Z. I think I got a little greedy here and should've played MOCKERS just to secure the win. #strategysmall
GENISTA and TEASING are a tiny bit better than INGESTA. Quackle prefers SWEATING for 78; amazingly, giving up column A is not expected to increase Darrell's average score beyond what he will get after TEASING/GENISTA/INGESTA. I'm unconvinced. If I'm honest, I was 99% sure GENISTA was TWL and opted for a 100% option. #knowledgesmall
Also considered C3 OUTRAVE, which looks better in retrospect to avoid keeping UV and blocking the easy QIS lane; but didn't consider the likely best move of F6 VAUNTY. Not too hard a play to generate. #findingmedium
Well, Quackle hates this, but it reduces Darrell's bingo percentage to zero, so that's nice. Quackle hates it because it believes Darrell's bingo percentage on the board as currently constituted is approximately 4%. UNSNAG scores so little that it puts me at risk of being outrun, but YZ is certainly a good combo to keep to alleviate that problem. A better way to go about this would've been to play 13f YANGS, which also reduces Darrell's bingo percentage to near-zero and keeps the Z, but also scores 8 more points in the process. I generated that as an option, but couldn't be sure that there weren't still playable overlaps on row 11 afterwards. #strategysmall
TALLY isn't really a dramatic enough fork to do over just I6 LAZY; a play to the triple after TALLY leaves a horrendous board for scoring if I don't hit a bingo, and hitting one isn't very likely. That being said, LAZY can get me fenced in pretty much immediately as well. Tough spot. I think LAZY is better. #strategysmall
Generated a lot of options here. For some reason I seemed to be reluctant to just play OXIDE. Sim likes 11B OH, but I don't, since it blocks UTS and incentivizes Kenji to block SOH at all costs, leaving me with much more difficult lanes to hit. I didn't generate 9H TALLYHO which looks stronger than DO solely on the basis of the RIDES leave hitting so much more than HIRES. Also thought of N10 HORDE, 14B DEHORS, and a few other things. Ultimately OXIDE is just too many more points not to play, but the idea of making more S hooks that can't ever really be usefully addressed was very appealing. #strategymedium
Considered A6 VIDEO; classic give and take between points and bingo%. The RASSLER lanes look pretty appealing for bingos but odds are pretty good that they get blocked. The plays sim in a near dead heat with VIDEO slightly ahead. #tacticssmall
No 8L WEEP anymore thanks to PORTABLE O8; I was aware of RETABLO as an option but was ready to just live with it if she knew it. Something like 9E EPEE opening nothing new is probably best anyway. #strategysmall
Top equity C13 KEX gives up extremely simple VOX in response. I played AX over C12 XI because I wanted to cut off DUSTINGS now while it was still so dangerous; sadly, I missed C11 AKIN, which looks wonderful to score, give nothing back, stop DUSTINGS, and set up the stealth AKING hook for later. #findingsmall 16:31
So close to doing 8A THO despite the duplicated Is and lost my nerve. Another idea I didn't see: I13 IT to set up ETH plays. KITTEN blows up my rack far too much for not enough points. #strategymedium 13:23
Pretty interesting sim result here. Quackle's favorite play here is F7 FROG, followed by 2J HOG, 8L FAIR, 2J FOG, then my move of 2J FOH, then 8L FARO. They're all really closely packed together in valuation. Terry just bingoed and the board is loaded with high-equity scoring spots so simulation is going to be even more accurate than usual. FROG is both the highest scoring and most defensive move, cutting off SLEW and badly damaging the scoring potential of any racks Terry draws with the X in it. (By contrast, the Z plays all over the place on this board and there's little I can do about it.) I didn't think of FROG at all, unfortunately. On the other hand, I'm losing and might like SLEW to stay open. HOG vs FOG vs FOH at 2J is quite interesting. Sim prefers HOG, perhaps expecting me to get down some much heavier bingos with SHEN and THEN afterwards. My play of FOH gives me the highest bingo% on my next move, but nevertheless trails HOG by 3 points per turn because of those heavy bingos I draw into, and which stay open a huge amount of the time thanks to the other good scoring spots available. I'll give FROG a #visionsmall and HOG a #tacticssmall.
Pretty interesting sim result here. Quackle's favorite play here is F7 FROG, followed by 2J HOG, 8L FAIR, 2J FOG, then my move of 2J FOH, then 8L FARO. They're all really closely packed together in valuation. Terry just bingoed and the board is loaded with high-equity scoring spots so simulation is going to be even more accurate than usual. FROG is both the highest scoring and most defensive move, cutting off SLEW and badly damaging the scoring potential of any racks Terry draws with the X in it. (By contrast, the Z plays all over the place on this board and there's little I can do about it.) I didn't think of FROG at all, unfortunately. On the other hand, I'm losing and might like SLEW to stay open. HOG vs FOG vs FOH at 2J is quite interesting. Sim prefers HOG, perhaps expecting me to get down some much heavier bingos with SHEN and THEN afterwards. My play of FOH gives me the highest bingo% on my next move, but nevertheless trails HOG by 3 points per turn because of those heavy bingos I draw into, and which stay open a huge amount of the time thanks to the other good scoring spots available. I'll give FROG a #visionsmall and HOG a #tacticssmall.
Tough call here, I tried to Nigel this out and figure out as many permutations as I could here to see which bingo would yield the lowest chance of counter-bingo, or whether maybe I should just fish off an N or the D; as it turns out all three bingos yield exactly the same bingo% of 71%, but INTENDS does in fact yield the lowest average scores. It does look like I work out a little better here by fishing off the D, which hits everything except the M. #strategysmall
Right bing, but should've played AIrpROX instead of AIRprOX to reduce Jason's scores by 1 when he plays at 8A. #tacticssmall, like really really small.
So admittedly I missed 2J ARIOT here which looks pretty nice, but picking which fish to make here was tricky. I don't think I appreciated that M1 HOA would bingo a similar amount to the plays fishing off two As. That looks definitely best thanks to the extra 6 points. But F6 AJAR vs M3 AA vs J10 AA was a tough call. I thought M3 AA would help me get down more bingos but apparently AJAR bingos just as much and doesn't open anything up - it certainly would've worked out better here. #tacticssmall
My penchant for mishandling Gs strikes again; this should be RONG for the same score but far more flexible leave (and RONG doesn't allow BORNE plays to go down). #tacticssmall
I opted to empty the bag here because I was scared that fishes drawing into bingos with R in final position would be unblockable, and felt that playing along row 15 to the middle TWS blocked the most bingos; but it's actually tough for Jason to fish one tile in a way that scores enough for his eventual bingo to win. Something like 15M ERG or ORG to prevent the truly nasty bingos available with FLYPES is probably best. I was at least correct that playing at H15 cuts his bingo% the most. #strategysmall
10H CIG bingos a surprising amount, but there's quite a nice array of excellent 8s lanes. I appear to have been blind to DEFI plays. #visionsmall 22:54
Odd that I didn't think of 5E OVERATE or even 10H COX; just debated OX vs EX, really. I figured the Z already played in some good spots and I would bingo more after EX than OX, which is true. But OVERATE is much better defensively and draws into XI 14J with an I and redraws the EX/OX plays atop MANURE next turn with any of AEO, at which point I can play them without worrying about high scoring parallels. #findingsmall 17:23
Tunneled on REZ almost immediately, and it's not a huge error; but OOZE and ZOO at least retain some bingo% and need to be considered. #findingsmall 16:51
Felt clever mathing this out and feeling like I had gotten this endgame right - but Quackle humbles me with 2L NAN, setting up NANE/KELP in a way which can only be blocked if Lynda plays something like US/NANS for 10, eating both the J and V when I respond with 15K KELPY. KLAP is second best and 4 points off of that sequence. #endgamesmall 7:10
Flailing. 5B URODELE looks like it gets paralleled and utterly fails to open anything for me but perhaps I just need the 22 points and six draws towards the blank and then worry about the board after. I kinda like C9 LOUCHE now to open the board and to fake a double Z setup, which might be annoying for Evan if he doesn't have it. #strategymedium
Whew, not a gamble worth taking - honestly thought SCAWING* was a word. Just CAWINGS. Lucky that the score was close enough that Bob didn't feel he could afford the five points. The crazy thing is that TAR bingos an amazing amount more often than TAD, which I was debating playing instead of CAD - Quackle says 33% to 19%. Quite surprising. CAD does actually sim quite well, but I gotta give this a #knowledgelarge 12:30
Very tricky move. I desperately wanted to keep ET together here to play down column O with RE and ST; drawing the H or M would be great if I could find a way to keep EET here. However, I also have to worry about being outrun if I take too small of a score here. For that reason, I felt the best compromise was BURET; I did also consider BUTEO, which appears to be a smidge better according to sim/CP, but it's not because it performs better defensively by covering the O1 triple; it's because I score 4 more points on my next turn with BUTEO than BURET. A little bit of that is because BUTEO occasionally draws bingos at the bottom of the board, which BURET blocks; the rest of it is that keeping EEL works better with the O12 spot than ELO. For example, if I draw HT or MT, I get my big play down there after BUTEO, but need more help after BURET. #strategysmall 4:26
Tricky move; Quackle wants H6 GNAT to increase my odds of drawing a vowel. Even though that move leaves only one S hook on the board, it's seemingly impossible to block effectively without very specific plays from BI that probably represent huge equity sacrifices. #strategysmall
I wish I could say I picked INVESTOR because I balked at all the CONTRIVE hooks - but in fact I actually just somehow missed CONTRIVE despite looking at the C. #findingsmall
EVET sims worse than obvious moves like 1F KEF but I like that it reduces Tim's average score by about 5 points and eliminates that nightmare huge 4x scenario. Still probably a #strategymedium.
Saw both playable sevens here but somehow spaced on the T hook to OP - to make matters worse I took five full minutes looking through all the open 8s lanes. #visionlarge 16:18
WA: I didn't see F10 TATOU, which looks nice, especially if I read HOB as a Z setup; though keeping the T for TREW is helpful as well. I'll go ahead and say #visionsmall.
Considered AMINE and AMINIC but missed LIMACINE, which Quackle prefers; unlike AMINE, it doesn't hook/give up bingos, and it scores as much as I can get. #findingsmall 10:53
I should do I6 UNROOF. I figured he always has a Z bomb with the second A of ACETA, but maybe sometimes whiffs the top one, but it draws into stuff enough on a four tile pull that I should be blocking both. Unfortunately, I looked through the R for only a little while for plays like that, figuring I had nothing worth playing, and didn't think of it as an option. #findingmedium
Getting a decent S hook on the board while the equity hit to do so is minimal - I say decent because it takes too many other hooks. Of course, the AANOS leave is pretty gross. It looks like H1 NADA is actually a fair bit better to create an S-specific hook and undouble the A's. #tacticsmedium
Disappointing to not generate 14E CUD as an option instead of my inferior CUD. That being said, the difference in bingo% on my next turn is not particularly large (Quackle estimates are 47% to 43%). #visionsmall
This should've been DEGUST, which I considered; there are no spots for sevens with my DST leave apart from DOJOS or EMS. Quackle says I bingo 21% after TEGU and 18% after DEGUST, which is easily close enough for me to take 9 extra points here. #strategysmall
Bad job by me here, I was so close to doing FUSTIC like I'm supposed to, but got foolishly seduced by static equity. VATU gives Orry a lifeline to fish later on with multiple lines on opposite sides of the board. FUSTIC opens nothing new and scores well. #strategymedium
Sigh, I spelled out GREWING on my rack and stared at it for 30 seconds before deciding against it. I should've been more deliberate to really think it over, but I'm trying really hard to go faster these days and in general I find it's helping me a lot. The pathway I could've taken to realizing GREWING is good is that I think my intuition is that there's something in DEEGRW, but that DEEGRW + S = SWEDGER, so whatever's in DEEGRW has to not be WEDGER, and is thus probably GREWED, thus making GREWING likelier to be good. #knowledgelarge
Only did this because I know Peter left the punchless IOST on his previous play, but it's still better to play something more traditional undoubling and keeping my vowel like just 4B WREN. #strategymedium
12H DOWERY was tempting as well, but WANY and WARY actually cut off more bingos than DOWERY does by a lot (A1 P bingos, column B overlapping bingo, a handful of bingos through the O of JOLTS). WANY bingos a tiny bit more often next turn than WARY. #tacticssmall
Just MEEK seems fine, I bingo a ton more to the T. Also considered 14G ACME to block rows 14 and 15, but didn't like that it opened a new sevens lane for -ST words and an easy triple. #strategysmall
I strongly considered LANATE to go harder for the blank, but figured I could keep a leave that had a strong chance of connecting. Still, spending my L with LACE gets me another point, another tile pull, and several more percentage points of bingo%. #tacticssmall
This was a very lazy sequence for me. The first thing that crossed my mind after FUG was, hmm, I bet he has QU more than usual after a move like that; but I really should've stopped, taken a second, and realized that he practically always has QU after FUG - he also made setups on me in each of our first two games! Therefore, I should have at the very least considered 12I LITHO, which obviously is gonna do very well against the QU range. This isn't as bad as the next turn, but still probably at least a #strategysmall
OK, even less excuse now with some time to think about it, and another turn for him to draw something there - I gotta do something like M9 MAGIAN to block that area. I think I thought that after he gets 80 there, I bingo for hopefully a comparable amount and still have tempo on a crummy board. But why wouldn't I try to stop the 80? FLEXOR and MATH would have been ok plays otherwise, but...come on. I will say that of all my turns at Nationals this year, this one was most tilting, because I saw all 4 of my playable CSW bingos here, and got agitated that I somehow didn't have a single TWL one...stopping myself from those kinds of reactions might be a bigger challenge than actually keeping the words straight. #strategylarge
Sid pointed out SNUG J8, which sims even with FUGIO, but is probably a little bit better. Quackle always underrates defensive moves like that. Another option, which I didn't see, is OUZEL C11. OUZEL wins the sim, but I like SNUG best. (-1) #visionsmall
The commentators liked this play, and I was disappointed by how badly this sims relative to REVISAL/SERVAL/VERSAL. I suppose turnover is important with both blanks unseen, but I figured Will probably had one by now. Also, I acknowledge that VIS is better than VIA, except that Will would know that I have another S. (-16) #strategylarge
Blocking 2F CAZIQUES 106. Quackle hates this and prefers N6 BI, which blocks the hotspot at N6 (the Q and X are unseen) and outruns CAZIQUES with every possible draw. If I draw the X, I threaten A5 COAX 66! #tacticslarge
I completely didn't see JOE until about 15 seconds after I hit the clock. BOOT(E)E is also really nice but also isn't congruent with my game plan #findinglarge
Shitty attempt at blocking O6 bingos. I did not think about the IER, IES, IED bingos that still fit after N10 GRE(Y). I was considering N8 TIGER(Y) but I thought that gave too many O7 possibilities back. N8 TIGER(Y) is slightly better than this at blocking bingos. Blocking the ELKS hook seemed forced to me at the time, but 15M GUE is best. #STRATEGYSADDEST
didn't find enough plays here - HUM 13B and P(R)AHU are both good. I saw THUMP and HAO, both of which seem a bit better than this. I underestimated IMNPU, I suppose it's at least balanced and decent for scoring despite the U. I feel like I overthought this position despite not thinking very coherently. #findingmedium
INCUBI is cool! PION was the other word I considered. BUN at b2 scores an extra point, but NUB is slightly more defensive, taking out the left side more. I score more next turn after PION, it looks wholly better. #tacticssmall
huge misplay this turn, totally missed a lot of interesting options. HUMANE opens the door to GE(D) and LE(D)E and LE(D)GE as setups. GAED N2 is also perhaps a better play. S(T)AGED is interesting as well. The key here is whether he has a blank on his rack. I think the answer is usually, since Q(I) for 31 would often come down. But with the board not great for bingoes, or a rack that isn't helped by the blank a lot, he may elecet to play Qi without another blank in hand. I remember thinking it was decently likely he didn't have another blank, but wasn't sure. I now think that he would probably keep the blank very often and play for 31, the options to outrun in an endgame are immense. A sim has GED, LEDGE, STAGED, GAED, EDGE, and GLADE I'm really not sure what's right, but I am pretty sure I would play LE(D)GE had I seen HUMANE. #visionsmall
i turn over UUF to my nice leave of ANRT and it's very frustrating. i didn't even look for a bingo, although i did write down AFLNRTUU. it only triggered the slighest stirring in a couple of neurons deep in my brain. #knowledgeSADDEST -46
J2 ROT is actually a little better because it takes more hooks, as annoying as it is to keep the U. i actually have a decent shot at winning with it (well, if he doesn't have the F, which he likely does after TELIA because he's Will) i could also consider K3 O(U)R. -5 #tacticsmedium
I considered sim-winners OE/AEON 7K, but it seemed like Will would be able to control the board after that, whereas OXO ensured that I would have a place for my bingo if I drew one. Quackle says this gives up too much. (-7) #strategymedium
Really tanked on this turn. I didn't want to leave the D open because a bingo there seemed like the only reasonable way I could lose. I should probably just play 15A ZET(A). #strategymedium
ERUV scores well, unloads two of UVV, and blocks the easiest lane on the board, row 13. Naturally, Quackle hates it. There is something to be said for Quackle's picks, B2 VUM and K1 VENDU, namely that they both save a scoring play at 1K (DRAVE and VARVE respectively). Honorable mention goes to G13 VUm, which scores only 9 points but blocks row 13 while saving 1K DRAVE. #tacticsmedium
13A/B plays come out on top in a sim and according to CP, which is strange because I would think that I have to block the N column because bings there would probably give the least back. Suggestions welcome as always. #strategysmall I suppose.
This play is another mistake. I looked for some time for -LESS words and I can't be chickening out on things like K5 BeDLESS which is 101. The only playable bingo on Row 14 is DEBtL(E)SS. Even something as simple as 14G B(E)DS is better because it isn't worth it to keep 2 Ss on this board. #findinglarge
jvc: I think M8 OUTATE is probably better than this, but it's really aggressive so I'm not sure if it's best. This is definitely a mistake though. #findingmedium
M1 LOVE apparently has the best chance of winning; Will will block row 1 but I could potentially get a bingo at A1 with the Q and then draw another bingo? Nah, even if I get 2 bingos Will should outrun easily. 5I VLOG has the highest valuation. #strategysmall I guess
Will blocked LAYOVERS, and with nothing to lose but spread, I decided to check whether HUNTABLE takes an S. O1 SYLVAE has the highest valuation. #knowledgelarge
I guess L2 LININ leaves 7 in the bag and I should win in most post-bingo endgames. But this way, it's very hard for him to bingo. I didn't think there was a heavy chance that he could outscore me in some other way. INLAND sims slightly better as well, because fewer bingos fit on the D column. Realized this after the fact. #strategysmall
wow, this is a big misevaluation. i thought my UPO was much better defensively than the UPO on lane 4, so i gladly sacrificed the point. mainly, it blocks the QUALMS/QUALMY hook. but my UPO is very easy to overlap for a ton of points, so it gives up at least 5 more points on average, and only slightly decreases his bingo %. UNROPE at 4G however is the best simming play. -5.5 #strategymedium
quackle likes 14A ARVO solely because it bingoes a lot more than my play. should i really do that? it seems like it gives up more points and bingoes than FRAT. what a weird move. -4 #strategymedium ??
12C VID for the much better leave and also 100% win. also, notably, H(UM)P seems to win 100% of the time even though it leaves ERECTILE open, probably because i'll score a lot in the triple. i didn't see anything else.. this is a big mistake for spread purposes. #tacticslarge -54
This was a complete misread and overreaction to his last play. I thought he had really good stuff, possibly an S. My thinking was that I would force his bingo to open lots of floaters that I could counter bingo with my leave of AEGR. In reality, he's making this play with a lot of different racks since it scores 30 points, including keeping a bunch of consonants which is was actually happened. Even if he does have a strong leave the slight defensive value of this play doesn't warrant the equity sacrifice. The equity play of 15A PEW or D4 GAW is fine here. #strategysaddest
I didn't have much time here and decided I just needed to play fast and I missed K3 (G)OETY. I also wasn't sure of 12H (C)OUTHY. #timesaddest #knowledgesaddest
I didn't have much time here and decided I just needed to play fast and I missed K3 (G)OETY. I also wasn't sure of 12H (C)OUTHY. #timesaddest #knowledgesaddest
11I RAJA is best equity but given the game situation I wanted to play a bit more aggressively and keep lines open. However, something in between like 11K JA keeping a slightly better leave seems best here. #strategysad
I must not have found GIRD somehow. It's odd that Quackle rates DIRGE over 40 points back in valuation, given 4 unseen E's, a clunky pool (which means I am likelier to get a bingo than Will), and the fact that it is--well, seems--easier to play a bingo through a D than through a G. But DIRGE never wins anyway. #findingmedium
I need to lose by less than 257 to win the tournament. Losing by 257 exactly is a tie. This sets up an OUTVENOM extension that I didn't see for the whole game. 8H ENMOVE is slightly better. #findingsad
J: Very lost this turn. There aren't really any great options. At this point I figured I needed to blank to win, so I went for turnover, but blocking all those lanes is certainly incorrect. Championship Player is saying N12 OU, but I think that's too aggressive given the score and the pool. Something like 2I (O)UR maybe, I dunno. Suggestions are welcome and also #strategylarge.
this was absolutely terrifying. I saw that I didn't have DOGMA through the D in DEFINITE. I saw that I had GLIOMATA with an I or an L. I saw the -MATA suffix more than once. Yet, I miss dOGMATA. #findinglarge
once again being safe, though I missed SPElEAN in the same spot which I would be sure of as opposed to SPEANEd, which I was not, given I always confused SNEAPED SPEANED with SNEAKED SKEANED*. #knowledgemedium #findingmedium
I suppose he could have S(E)RAGLIO, the only playable 7 on row 14, and nothing else. I should therefore play deP(L)ANES A2 or fish with E(ME).
once again being safe, though I missed SPElEAN in the same spot which I would be sure of as opposed to SPEANEd, which I was not, given I always confused SNEAPED SPEANED with SNEAKED SKEANED*. #knowledgemedium #findingmedium
I suppose he could have S(E)RAGLIO, the only playable 7 on row 14, and nothing else. I should therefore play deP(L)ANES A2 or fish with E(ME).
this has quite good recursion potential, so it's not as much of a mistake as quackle says over OU(T)AGE. But it's a testament to how OUTAGE is better than FUG doesn't immediately do as well, since it means I don't draw a huge Q play as often as I would like to. #findingmedium
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